AP rescinds two called races for the Republicans in NC-9 and CA-21, Democrats could finish with net pickups of 41 in the US House

North Carolina House race too close to call amid fraud inquiry:

The Associated Press has uncalled the race, as state authorities examine allegations against Republican Mark Harris' campaign. ... The North Carolina contest marks the second time this week the AP has rescinded one of its election-night race calls. On Monday night, the wire service — which supplies election results and projections to news organizations all over the country — said it no longer considered Republican Rep. David Valadao the winner of a congressional race in California’s Central Valley, after his Democratic opponent, TJ Cox, inched ahead of Valadao in the state’s protracted vote count. As of early Friday, Cox’s lead in the California race stood at 591 votes, with the counties planning to certify their results next week.

Meanwhile NY-22, as expected, became a Democrat pickup as did UT-4. The GOP held on in TX-23 and GA-7.

Real Clear Politics still shows NC-9 today as a GOP hold giving Republicans 200 in the new House, which is incorrect, so the math should show the new House at Democrats 234, Republicans 199, with CA-21 and NC-9 to be re-adjudicated.

So far, Democrats have picked up 42 seats, Republicans 3 seats, for a net Democrat pickup of 39 (so also Real Clear Politics).

Seats in toss-up move up to 37 at Real Clear Politics, seats likely/leaning Democrat drops to 202, Republican 196

Democrats now need 16 seats from the toss-ups to win the majority, Republicans need 22 to retain the majority.

This assumes Democrats win all 14 seats which only lean Democrat (part of their 202 tally) and Republicans win all 27 seats which only lean Republican (part of their 196 tally).

That puts 78 seats in play 48 hours before the election on Tuesday, 68 of which are Republican seats.

The 114th Congress ended with Republicans in control of the US House with 246 seats. The current 115th Congress began with Republicans in control of the US House with 241 seats.

Republicans currently control 235 seats, Democrats 193, with 7 vacancies, as of the end of September.

With 4 days to go to the midterm elections, toss-up races in the US House increase to 36 at Real Clear Politics

As of this morning, Republicans are likely to get 196 seats plus 12 seats polling in their column in the last poll taken in the toss-ups for a total of 208.

Democrats are likely to get 203 seats plus 19 seats polling in their column in the last poll taken in the toss-ups for a total of 222.

Just 4 seats remain tied, and there is no poll in 1 toss-up race.

Fully 25 of 36 toss-up races are polling tied to +2, or 69% of the toss-ups.

For 32 of the toss-up races, the average margin of error is 4.88 points.

Polling is a form of campaigning!

The only poll that counts is 96 hours away.

Remember that giving Democrats control of the US House means two more years of relitigating the 2016 election.

Move on!

Real Clear Politics predicts Republicans taking the Senate 52-48 in its no toss-ups map with 5 days to go

Hard as it is to believe, AZ has gone wobbly with Democrat wack job Kyrsten Sinema ahead in the average of the polls by 0.7 points. AZ deserves the military pilot who never crashed her plane to be its next senator, Republican Martha McSally.

Evidently Arizona is suffering from too many Californians. Let's hope they're all high on meth next Tuesday.

In ND Republican Kevin Cramer is well ahead of the Democrat incumbent by an average of 11.4 points.

In MO Republican Josh Hawley is ahead of Democrat incumbent Claire McCaskill by an average of 2 points. A Republican victory would be sweet revenge against the dirty trickster.

Toss-ups other than AZ and MO include the following:

Republican Dean Heller is ahead by 2 points on average in NV.

Democrat John Tester is ahead in MT by 4.2 points on average.

Democrat incumbent Joe Donnelly is in trouble in IN, hanging by a thread by 0.8 points on average.

And Democrat Bill Nelson is still ahead in FL with a 2 point advantage over popular governor Rick Scott.

Republicans are otherwise longshots in New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The corrupt do-nothing Democrats in New Jersey and Michigan especially deserve to be unseated.

With 5 days to go to the election, US House races too close to call now number 34 at Real Clear Politics

Based on the latest dated poll in each race, US House races as of this morning shake out as follows:

Of 34 toss-ups, Democrats are polling ahead in 18 races by an average of +2.83;

Republicans poll ahead in 10 races by an average of +2.50;

5 races are tied, and 1 race has no polling at all.

Democrats are otherwise slated as likely to take 203 seats and Republicans 198.

If the voters vote as the polls predict in the toss-ups, Democrats would take 221 seats, Republicans 208, with 5 tied and 1 unpredictable.

The margin of error in these polls, however, is quite high, often 4 to 5 points.

24 of the 34 races are as close as 0-2 polling points.

218 is needed for a majority.

One week out, Democrats are very narrowly set to take the US House 219 to 210 with 6 races tied

With 204 seats already likely going Democrat according to Real Clear Politics, 15 toss-up seats tonight are favoring Democrats in the very latest polling, but only by the slimmest of margins, +2.46 per race on average:

MN-1

NV-3

NV-4

CA-10

CA-39

CA-45

FL-26

FL-27

IA-3

IL-6

NJ-7

NY-19

NY-22

VA-5

VA-7.

Five of these are one-point races, six are two-point races.

For their part Republicans are set to take 199 seats, with 11 toss-ups in their column with an average polling advantage per race of +3.27 in the last poll:

CA-25

CA-48

KS-2

KY-6

MI-8

NC-9

NJ-3

PA-1

TX-7

TX-32

WA-8.

Five of these also are one-point races, with just one two-point race.

Six seats remain all tied up in the latest poll in each race:

FL-15

ME-2

MI-11

MT-at large

NM-2

UT-4.

NM-2 goes from Republican to tied in latest poll, CA-25 flips dramatically to Republican +4, VA-7 goes Democrat +1 from tied

The electoral math based on the last poll in each toss-up race had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied as of last night.

So the new tie in NM-2 means the math becomes 220 Dem, 209 Rep, 6 Tied.

But CA-25 changes that to 219 Dem, 210 Rep, 6 Tied.

And VA-7 changes that to 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.

Real Clear Politics this morning shows 30 toss-up races, and otherwise gives the Democrats 205 to the Republicans' 200.

5 of the toss-ups are polling tied, 10 are polling Republican, and 15 are polling Democrat.

The average polling lead in the 15 Democrat toss-ups is 2.73 points.

The average polling lead in the 10 Republican toss-ups is 2.9 points.

These polls typically have a margin of error much higher than 2 to 3 points, so this is shaping up to be quite the narrowly fought contest rather than a wave election.

Democrats would be doing better had they not fielded so many extreme candidates.

Real Clear Politics removes NC-13 and NM-2 from toss-ups column, both now lean Republican

That reduces the toss-up races to 29 but the forecast math still shows the Democrats taking control of the US House 220-210 with 5 races tied based on the latest poll in each toss-up race. NC-13 and NM-2 were already in the Republican column based on the polling and so they were already Republican in the math.

With only one full week remaining in the campaign, expect the polling to become more predictive.

But as always, the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day.

The latest poll in IL-6 flips the seat from red to blue by +2

That changes the electoral math from 219-211-5 to 220-210-5, putting the Democrats in control of the US House by a slim majority of three if the election were held today and the voters voted exactly in sync with the very latest poll in every Real Clear Politics "toss-up" congressional district.

218 seats are needed for a majority.

UT-4 remains tied in the latest poll there.

US House Election Snapshot for Tuesday 10/23/18: Democrats win control with 218

Real Clear Politics has the race at 205 Democrat to 200 Republican with 30 toss-ups.

Based on the latest polling date in each of the toss-ups, Democrats pick-up 13 and Republicans pick up 12 with 5 more races officially tied.

Democrats win control 218-212-5.

14 contests have severely out-of-date polling, however, 13 from September and 1 from August. 16 contests have the latest poll taken sometime in October.

Republicans own the October polling: Republican 8, Democrat 4, Tied 4. The average lead for Republicans is +3.375 and for Democrats is +4.25.

Democrats own the out-of-date polling, throwing cold water on their projected win: Democrat 9, Republican 4, Tied 1.

The average lead in Democrat polling overall is +3.3 and in Republican is +2.75.

US Chamber of Commerce strategist predicts Republicans keep US House 222-213

The current US House is controlled by Republicans 236-193.

Blue wave hope ebbs as GOP rebounds:

To galvanize their voters, Republicans are airing attack ads that argue Democrats would target Trump and Kavanaugh, unleash mob rule and threaten cultural values. "Closing with a little fear," said Scott Reed, senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, describing the GOP approach. Reed predicted that Republicans would keep their losses to 20 House seats, just under the 23 Democrats need to return to power. Republicans are favored to hold their majority in the Senate, which stands at 51-49. 

The WaPo typist of this article for the Democrat Party leads off with some amusing fantasies:

Underscoring the fast-changing political fortunes are the cold calculations by both parties in the final days.

 

The GOP is redirecting $1 million from a suburban district in Colorado to Florida, bailing on incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman to try to hold an open seat in Miami. Democrat Donna Shalala, a former Health and Human Services secretary in the Clinton administration, is struggling to break away from Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban American and former television anchor, in a district Hillary Clinton won by nearly 20 points.

Republicans have also pulled back in a Democratic-held open seat in Nevada that includes some of the suburbs of Las Vegas. Clinton won there, as well.

Democrats, meanwhile, are cutting funds in a GOP-held district in Nebraska and a Democratic-held district in northern Minnesota, two places Trump won. The latter represents one of the GOP's best chances to flip a seat from blue to red.

Start with Coffman's Republican seat in CO-6.

It was slated to go Democrat already over a month ago at Real Clear Politics when I checked on September 17th. And it had been a toss-up on September 10th. Whatever's happening with the money there, CO-6's shift toward the Democrat is not part of "fast-changing political fortunes . . . in the final days". The shift occurred much earlier.

As for Donna Shalala in FL-27 (Clinton retread!), she isn't "struggling to break away from Maria Elvira Salazar". Her support there has been ERODING, from likely Democrat in early September to leans Democrat in mid-September to toss-up in mid-October. The Republican Salazar is actually ahead there in the only poll available. The recent movement is all toward the Republican.

Same thing with the open Democrat seat in NV-3. Whatever the parties are doing with their money, the seat has been in the Democrat column for well over a month, since September 10th. But today it's a toss-up. The movement has been toward the Republican, but you would never know that from this propaganda piece.

And why mention Democrats shifting money out of Nebraska? Oooh Mable, look at that! Nebraska doesn't even have a seat on anybody's radar because there isn't one, but saying so makes it seem like there is, deep in the heart of Republican flyover country. The mission is to demoralize Republicans with this stuff, made up out of whole cloth. The Republican Bacon in NE-2 is ahead by nine points.

MN-8 is also instructive. It's not just that Republicans have there "a chance to flip a seat". The Democrat candidate there was +1 to begin September in the NYTimes poll. By mid-October the same poll has the Republican +15. Again, the direction is (massively in this instance) toward the Republican.

Of ten specific races identified in the story, I put six in the Republican column (NE-2, FL-27, MN-8, MI-6 [the Democrats' own latest poll there has Upton up by three], MN-1 and TX-23), one in the Democrat column (CO-6), and three in the toss-ups (NV-3, KY-6, PA-1).

60-40.

Looks more like a Republican wave, not an ebbing Democrat wave.

House projection with 19 days to go: Republicans keep the House 218-217 in the worst case scenario

Real Clear Politics has the current math at Democrats 206 to Republicans 199, with 30 toss-ups, 29 of which are Republican.

To date 15 formerly Republican seats have shifted to Likely/Leans Democrat in the so-called Blue Wave, or 34% of the total 44 Republican seats at some level of risk of flipping. Defying that trend, 3 formerly Democrat seats have shifted to Likely/Leans Republican.

Were the Democrat trend to continue, which is now however unlikely in view of Democrat missteps in the Kavanaugh affair and other public relations disasters, Democrats might be expected to peel off at most 10 more of the 29. Add the Democrat toss-up seat, and Democrats finish with 217, one shy of a majority.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Until next week.

Real Clear Politics has Toss-Up seats down to 32 from 43 in the last month

Seats leaning Dem vs. Rep were 205 vs. 198 as of 10-9-18.

Of the 32 Toss-Ups, 11 are Open seats undefended by an incumbent (2 formerly Dem, 9 formerly Rep).

The remaining 21 are defended by Republicans but are too close to call as of 10-9-18. Retaining all those and losing all the Open seats would give Republicans a slim 1-seat majority of 219 to 216. 

Two months out Real Clear Politics has just nine Republican seats "likely" going Democrat: That's no blue wave

Democrats and liberals, however, want you to think it's already hopeless for Republicans. Like Al Hunt, who thinks Democrats will turn out because Trump is their great motivator to do so. Al, however, thinks the toss ups are already down to 20 to 25 seats. If it's true, as he thinks, that Republicans tend to reduce their polling deficits as the election nears, his already low estimation of the size of the field of prospects suggests this is a lot closer than he's willing to admit. The generic Congressional poll currently favors Democrats by +2 to +4 (Rasmussen). Remember Rasmussen had Hillary at +2. Al thinks the current math means Democrats need 23 seats to take the House. That means almost all of his toss ups have to flip.

Not likely!

Real Clear Politics is making sure Jon Tester is getting broad, expansive coverage