The obscenity of US national debt at $34.5 trillion notwithstanding, the value of grand total foreign ownership of it is up almost $529 billion year over year in March 2024 to a record high of . . .

. . . $8.091 trillion.

An almost 7% increase.

Here.

Meanwhile:

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio told the Financial Times a few days ago that he is concerned the soaring U.S. debt levels will make Treasurys less attractive “particularly from international buyers worried about the US debt picture and possible sanctions.”

So far, that hasn’t been the case: Foreign holdings of U.S. federal debt stood at $8.1 trillion in March, up 7% from a year ago, according to Treasury Department data released Wednesday. Risk-free Treasurys are still seen as an attractive place to park cash, but that could change if the U.S. doesn’t rein in its finances.

On an average monthly basis, yields on all UST peaked for this cycle last October, save for 1Y which peaked last September.

What, me worry?

 

Titans of American business pay to have dinner with genocidal dictator Xi Jinping

Elon Musk was there, too, but this story never mentions it:

Xi’s 10 years as president are marked by a genocide against China’s Muslim minority, attempts to wipe out Tibetan culture, and persecution of Christians and followers of Falun Gong – not to mention a crackdown on democracy, religious freedom, and civil rights in Hong Kong. 

Yet, during official and unofficial meetings this week, there was no mention of the long list of atrocities. Instead, Xi received an unusually warm reception. 

On Wednesday night in the confines of San Francisco’s Hyatt Regency ballroom, America’s corporate chieftains gathered to fete Xi as a “guest of honor” at a banquet drawing nearly 400 attendees. The gala took place on the sidelines of the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, a gathering of 21 member countries to support free trade and business ties. 

The executives were so excited to share the room with the Chinese president that they gave him two standing ovations before Xi uttered a word. American titans of business, including Apple’s Tim Cook and Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman, Black Rock’s Larry Fink, Boeing’s Stanley Deal, and Pfizer’s Albert Bourla, joined Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to rub shoulders with Xi and a cohort of Chinese officials. 

Tickets for the banquet started at $2,000 each, with several companies shelling out $40,000 to buy eight seats at a table in the ballroom and one at Xi’s table. After Xi’s remarks, attendees provided yet another standing ovation, according to Reuters. 

Some executives made no attempt to hide their gushing. On the way into the Hyatt, Bridgewater Associates hedge fund founder Ray Dalio told the Financial Times that he was “excited to have this relationship [with Xi].”

If Dalio entered the hotel from the main lobby, he couldn’t have avoided the polar opposite scene and messaging. A Tibetan student activist named Tsela had strapped herself to a flagpole and was waving the Tibetan flag when Xi and his entourage arrived. Other activists from Students for a Free Tibet chanted “Murderer” at the Chinese leader, “Down with the CCP,” and “Human Rights in Tibet.”

Bridgewater billionaire with a firm grasp of the obvious, for those without

 

Ray Dalio says to hold cash ‘temporarily’ — but don’t buy debt and bonds

Buy and Hold: Why bother with Bridgewater's All Weather or with a simple global market portfolio?

Meb Faber compares the returns from behemoth Bridgewater's All Weather portfolio to a simple global market portfolio (GAA) here, acknowledging that the leveraged version of the latter which beats All Weather is probably too expensive for individuals to implement:

All Weather, 1996-2014: 6.34% net of inflation

GAA (unleveraged), 1996-2014: 5.23% net of inflation.

I say, why bother?

You can invest very cheaply in a low-cost S&P500 index fund and do very nearly just as well on the stock side: The average annual return from the S&P500 net of inflation, 11/'95-11/'14, has been 6.23%.

And for the bond portion of your portfolio an investment in a low-cost long term bond index fund like VBLTX has yielded 7.89% since 1994. Net of inflation at about 2.31% this must come in in the neighborhood of 5.4% per annum.

Which begs the question, Why not just pick a decent low-cost balanced fund?

Actively managed Wellesley Income, VWINX, has yielded 10.09% per annum since 1970, with inflation annualizing at about 4.17%. And the traditional Balanced Index, VBINX, has yielded 8.38% since 1992, with inflation annualizing at about 2.38%. Either fund puts you in the vicinity of 5.9% to 6% per annum net of inflation. Expense ratios for these funds are less than a quarter point.

Just sayin'.