The MAGA tariff unwind begins lol

HUMILIATION: Administration to Begin Refunding $166 Billion in Tariffs...

 

Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday

 

Tariff refunds begin today. These retailers are due big paydays 

 

My morning coffee, my Sunday hamburger, my Italian tomatoes, pasta and olive oil, and now even my salad

I coulda mentioned salad the other day, but I didn't.

The average price made a new record high in 1Q2026. 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why BLTs and salad just got more expensive — tariffs, war send tomato prices soaring

This story is about fresh tomatoes, not salad, and it is interesting, but the average price of tomatoes in 1Q2026 still hasn't surpassed 1Q2016.

Adjusted for inflation since 1Q1980, tomatoes could cost $2.64 per pound, but they were only $1.98 in 1Q.

As the story says, canned tomatoes are much cheaper. I make my sauce from stewed whole plum tomatoes from a can, preferably Italian, preferably San Marzano or Parma, but there are many acceptable American brands to choose from. 

Trump provides 77.3 million who voted for him an out, acknowledges he appointed Supreme Court justices who now sicken him lol

 

What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

 

Trump says Justices Barrett, Gorsuch ‘sicken me’ after Supreme Court tariff ruling

President Donald Trump on Wednesday criticized two of his Supreme Court appointees — Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett — for voting with other justices in the bombshell 6-3 decision that ruled his signature reciprocal tariffs were illegal, saying they sickened him and are “bad for our country.”

“Two of the people that voted for that, I appointed,” Trump said at the National Republican Congressional Committee dinner at Union Station in Washington, D.C., without naming the two justices. ...

Trump thinks high interest rates are all Powell's fault when they are HIS: The war in Iran, the tariffs, the addition of $2 trillion in debt in seven months

 

Extra! Extra! Read all about it! Supremes rule 6-3 that IEEPA law does not permit Trump's tariffs on the world, Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissenting

Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs, rebuking president’s signature policy

... Many of those tariffs were invoked using a novel reading of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. They include Trump’s near-global “reciprocal” tariffs, and separate duties related to the alleged trafficking of deadly drugs into the U.S.

The IEEPA does not explicitly mention tariffs, as the Supreme Court noted Friday. Instead, it allows the president to “regulate … importation” of foreign property transactions after declaring a national emergency in order to deal with certain “unusual and extraordinary” threats.

The Trump administration has argued that language empowers the president to impose tariffs on foreign goods.

Critics charged that the law does not permit the president to unilaterally impose levies of any size on any country at any time. A federal trade court and a federal appeals court both found Trump’s IEEPA tariffs illegal before the Supreme Court took up the case. ...

 

Trump tariff refunds: What to expect as fight for billions begins

 

What Supreme Court ruling against Trump tariffs means for your money  

 

Supreme Court Trump tariffs ruling could put U.S. on hook for $175 billion in refunds, estimate says

 

After Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, here are sectors still facing higher rates

 

Retail industry says Trump tariff reversal will bring much-needed predictability

 

Small furniture retailers face existential tariff threat, despite Supreme Court ruling

 

U.S. trading partners cheer Supreme Court tariff ruling — but businesses must still navigate ‘murky waters’

 

Democrats rejoice in Supreme Court rebuke of Trump tariffs    

 

The massive trade deficits were the main reason Trump instituted his equally massive tariffs to eliminate them, but they're still here lol

 

 U.S. trade deficit totaled $901 billion in 2025, barely budging despite Trump’s tariffs

The U.S. trade deficit swelled in December, closing out a year in which the imbalance was essentially unchanged despite efforts by the Trump administration to close the wide gap.

Closing out a tumultuous year in the global marketplace, the goods and services shortfall in December totaled $70.3 billion, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That marked an increase of $17.3 billion from November and was well above the Dow Jones consensus estimate of $55.5 billion.

For the full year, the U.S. ran a $901.5 billion deficit, down slightly from 2024 but only by 0.2%, or $2.1 billion. The total was also a bit less than the record $923.7 billion shortfall in 2022.

The report follows a year in which President Donald Trump implemented a series of aggressive tariffs aimed at leveling the global playing field. In April, Trump announced an across-the-board duty of 10% on all imports as well as so-called reciprocal tariffs aimed at specific countries that had run up surpluses against the U.S.

However, during the course of the year Trump softened many of those positions, and negotiations with major trading partners are ongoing.

In an effort to get ahead of the tariffs, companies front-loaded imports during the first three months of the year. The trend abated following the early effort, with October registering the lowest monthly deficit since 2009.

The U.S. had its largest goods deficit with the European Union, at $218.8 billion, followed by China, at $202.1 billion, and Mexico, at $196.9 billion.

Exports for 2025 totaled $3.43 trillion for all of 2025, up $199.8 billion from 2024. Imports also rose, totaling $4.33 trillion, an increase of $197.8 billion.

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, thankfully passed over for Fed chair, wants NY Fed authors punished for tariff paper he disagrees with

What a jerk. 

 Hassett says authors of New York Fed tariff study should be disciplined: ‘Worst paper I’ve ever seen’

... The people associated with this paper should presumably be disciplined ... 

 

 

On the eve of the election Trump promised cheaper grocery prices, but breakfast costs nearly 8% more in Jan 2026 than it did then

 

A basket of bacon and eggs, whole wheat bread and butter, coffee and whole milk, and orange juice cost on average $32.47 in the United States in 3Q2024. Stretched out over a week, your breakfast cost you $4.64 a day.

That same basket in Jan 2026 is now $35.00 on average, up $2.53 or 7.8%.

Stretched out over a week breakfast now costs $5.00 a day.

Meanwhile OJ hit a new high, and despite removing some coffee-related tariffs, coffee hit a new record high price in Jan 2026, too.

 

 

U.S. House votes 219-211 to overturn Trump tariffs on Canada

 House votes to override Trump’s Canada tariffs

... the effort is likely symbolic. Even if the Senate approves Meeks’ resolution, Trump would likely veto the legislation. ...

 

Ford Motor blames tariff timing and fires at an aluminum plant for earnings miss when it was its electric vehicle business

 

Ford reports worst quarterly earnings miss in four years, guides for better 2026

 

... On an unadjusted basis, the company’s net loss of $8.2 billion last year was its largest since the Great Recession in 2008, according to FactSet. That included $15.5 billion in special charges during the fourth quarter largely related to a pre-announced pullback in its all-electric vehicle plans.

Automakers commonly exclude “special items” or one-time charges from their adjusted financial results to provide investors with a clearer picture of their core, ongoing business operations.

Ford reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $11.1 billion, or a loss of $2.77 per share, compared with net income of $1.8 billion, or 45 cents per share, in the same period in 2024. Adjusted for the one-time charges, the company reported earnings of 13 cents per share.

 

Representatives Massie, Kiley, and Bacon revolt against House GOP and vote with all Democrats to take back Congress' Article I tariff power from the president

Expect tariff votes in the U.S. House in the near future, but not necessarily victories.

 

GOP defectors help spike House measure to block tariff disapproval votes

 

... The House Rules Committee on Monday approved language that would block any House votes disapproving of Trump’s tariffs through July 31. ... The Senate has on multiple occasions voted to strike down tariffs issued by Trump, while the House has blocked votes on tariff-related resolutions. The latest prohibition on tariff votes expired at the end of January. ... 

The New York Times on the global economy had me and then it lost me

Because it, like too many commentators, uses an obsolete dollar index in DXY, which measures dollar strength or weakness relative to just SIX currencies: EUR, JPY (!), GBP (!), CAD (!), SEK (!), CHF (!).

 

The Federal Reserve has developed broader indices weighted to the countries the U.S. trades with the most.

 

U.S. GDP is $31.1 trillion. 

EURO ZONE GDP: $16.5 trillion.

Japan: $4.3 trillion.

Great Britain: $3.6 trillion.

Canada: $2.3 trillion.

Sweden: $0.6 trillion.

Switzerland: $1 trillion.

Global GDP: $117 trillion.

 

 The Global Economy’s Warning Signals Are Broken

 

 ... It’s as if cars, instead of slowing down at a flashing yellow light as expected, started speeding up. ...

 

The traditional connection between the American economy’s performance and the value of the dollar has also been snapped. Uncertainty tends to increase the dollar’s value compared with other currencies as investors seek a safe haven in risky times. But the dollar has sunk to its lowest level in years. ...

 

Analysts backed down on their predictions that Mr. Trump’s tariff blitz last spring would cause higher prices ... 

 

Even by DXY standards, the dollar is not weak at 97, well within its long term average range between 95 and 105.

 

And The New York Times is ignoring that wholesale prices increased at a higher rate in 2025 than in either 2024 or 2023. 

 

Anyway, you know what happens when people ignore the flashing yellow:

 

Traffic fatalities surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research highlights the fact that disadvantaged communities bore the brunt of the increase and calls for holistic solutions to promote equitable access to safe transportation.

 

 

The wealth inequality of today's K-shaped economy goes back to the Reagan Revolution

Wealth inequality and the ‘K-shaped’ economy are more striking than ever, data shows

 

They take vacations and buy luxury goods. You struggle to pay for food, shelter, and transportation.

 

K is not OK.

 

... A key measure of wealth concentration called the Gini coefficient sits at 60-year highs, according to a report from U.S. Bank published earlier this month. ... The net worth of America’s top 1% hit a record share of nearly 32% in the third quarter of 2025, the Federal Reserve reported. By comparison, the bottom 50% cumulatively held 2.5% of overall net wealth.

 

The portion of U.S. GDP heading to workers in the form of compensation tumbled to its lowest level in its more than 75-year history, per data tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That means the average nonfarm business worker is seeing an increasingly small slice of an economy that has largely boomed over the last 15 years. ...

 

Total relative “outlays” — a broad measure of spending and nonmortgage payments — by U.S. consumers in the top 20% hit multidecade highs last year, a data analysis conducted by Moody’s Analytics found. The other 80% tumbled to new lows, the data shows. ...

 

While the “K-shape” term became popularized as an explanation for the uneven economic recovery seen during the pandemic, economists say the origins of this breakaway can be traced back decades earlier.

This type of diverging economy stems from the economic reorganization seen during the Reagan administration, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax firm RSM. About two decades later, the structural break that created the K-shaped economy, as it’s now understood, was more clearly observed in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of the late 2000s, he said.

That was in part due to the loss of wealth tied to the historic housing market crash, Brusuelas said. On top of that, he said the jump in joblessness limited earnings potential for those without steady employment in their prime working years.

The Great Recession “created the conditions for the winner-take-all economy that emerged in its aftermath,” said Brusuelas, who first heard the K-shape term around 2008. “If you live, work and inhabit certain portions of the economy, you might as well live on the dark side of the moon compared to what goes on down-market.” ...

To make meaningful inroads, the U.S. would instead need to focus on tax reform and expanding social safety nets, according to RSM’s Brusuelas. ...

The U.S. trade balance has worsened after one year of Trump tariffs lol

 

Trade balance soared 94% in November and was higher than a year ago, despite tariff efforts

 

... On a year-over-year basis, the deficit through November stood at $839.5 billion, or about 4% higher than the same period in 2024. 

The increase in the deficit counters Trump’s efforts to use tariffs to reduce imbalances around the globe. When announcing so-called reciprocal tariffs in April 2025, the White House used the level of trade deficits with varying countries as a baseline for determining the duties. ...

The case for stock market manipulation in the case of the proposed tariff penalties over Greenland is very weak

The tariff idea was floated before lunch on Friday, Jan 16.

Stocks closed down just 4-points that day.

The scale of the subsequent market reaction was comparatively minor in the event, and Trump pulled the trigger reversing himself very quickly unlike in April 2025.

Trump wants stock market winners, the rich, on his side, because he's losing the rest of us.

 

Trump always chickens out: Tariffs over Greenland canceled

SPX up 1.27%, long yields down 4 basis points, gold and silver cool off.

Same shit, different day.

 

House Speaker Mike Johnson, who claimed to be a constitutional law attorney in 2016, says the president has tariff authority under Article Two of the Constitution when Article One gives it to the Congress

 

Spot gold hit a record high $4,765.93 today, spot silver a record $95.87

 -- CNBC

Ratio 1:49.71 

Yields give the finger to The Don for tariff threats over Greenland

 

If Trump had any imagination whatsoever he'd float Greenland Bonds as a proposal to finance a Greenland purchase

 

Instead it's just negative waves all the time. 

Trump floats new tariffs in push to acquire Greenland

 

Trump could propose a purchase to Denmark, and finance it with Greenland Bonds paying 5-6% over thirty years. Insurance companies and lotteries would love it.

 

But No, all he wants to do is punish, punish, punish.