Trump doesn't think about the American financial situation, kinda like Obama saying to the New York Times two days before the market bottom in March 2009 that everything was fine

 

Elusive full-time jobs which fell off a cliff in the Great Recession hold back couple from having the children they want

52% had a full time job on average in 2007, just 49% in 2025

 

 ... Clare Zakowski, a 28-year-old who works part time as a manager at a therapy practice, says she would welcome a federal paid family leave program, not that Congress is offering. She has always loved children; as a high schooler in Green Bay, Wis., she babysat and ran the activities for a summer camp. “I love their naïveté and innocence,” she told me. “I just think kids rock.” Ms. Zakowski has been with her boyfriend for over seven years, and children have been part of the discussion since the two first got together. But lately, she has been appalled by the manosphere, and worries about how A.I. will affect society. “The news every day is crazy, and it’s been that way for a while,” she said. “It just feels like we’re living in a really, really weird time.” Beyond paid leave (or universal health insurance, for that matter), she yearns for something deeper: a sense of security, something that she has yet to experience in America in her adult lifetime. “I feel like there’d have to be, I want to say a revolution, but basically big political change, like a moral awakening from everyone,” she said.

She had been looking for a full-time, higher-paying job to set herself up for parenthood, but found the search to be so stressful that she gave up. “I know there can be negatives to not planning ahead,” she told me, but “who even knows what the future holds?” ...

More. 

 

Birth dearth blamed on chaos and uncertainty produced by the Great Recession

 ... In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, however, sometimes referred to as the Great Recession, births in Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland declined, and then declined some more, even as their economies recovered throughout the 2010s. Little about those nations’ family policies had changed, and as far as anyone could tell, men were still doing their share of the dishes. The same downward trend held in the United States, where births have fallen by about 23 percent since 2007, despite high rates of immigration until last year. Births have also been declining in East Asian countries, even though governments in the region have thrown buckets of money at the problem. And in France, despite its longstanding pronatalist policies. 

... What unites these disparate cultures, policy environments and demographics, researchers are now realizing, is young people’s inescapable and crushing sense that the future is too uncertain for the lifelong commitment of parenthood. Call it the vibes theory of demographic decline.

... The two generations currently of childbearing age bear the psychological and financial scars of coming of age amid world-scale catastrophes: Older millennials entered the labor market during the Great Recession; many watched their parents lose their jobs or homes. Members of Gen Z, whose lives were upturned by the Covid-19 pandemic, now find themselves competing against A.I. for entry-level jobs and even prospective partners. The man running America seems single-mindedly devoted to chaos at home and abroad. ...

More. 

Christopher Caldwell for The New York Times thinks the American Empire has met its match in the Persian Gulf when it already met it a year ago in the Red Sea

... the United States lacks the military means to impose its will on Iran in a long conflict. In 1991 a million soldiers from more than 40 countries were needed to reverse the invasion of Kuwait carried out by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, a country less sophisticated than Iran and a fraction of its size. When Iran and Iraq fought each other to a standstill in the 1980s, deaths ran into the hundreds of thousands on each side. The United States would have to send a significant portion of its armed forces — which total only 1.3 million troops — to stand a chance of subduing Iran, and that force, if successful, would have to stay for a long time. ...

Here.

Caldwell is just as blind as Trump.

Neither one gets it that the lowly Houthis already beat us to a draw last year in the Red Sea.

Nothing is moving out of the Persian Gulf today, and tanker traffic through the Red Sea is less than half what it used to be in 2022, even under the new conditions of a world desperately thirsty for the Middle East oil no longer coming out of the former.

And neither one gets it that you can't have an American Empire without paying for it. 

We're $39 trillion in debt and can no longer impose our will in the world's vital choke-points because elites have pretended since Reagan that low marginal income tax rates are sufficient to maintain American Empire when what those rates have done is impoverish us and enrich our adversaries.

1,135 billionaires are the symbol of our lost empire. 

Caldwell steers well clear of naming the obvious remedy, and Trump's Big Ugly Bill will  do nothing but put America $62 trillion in debt by the end of 2032.

Taxes must be raised . . . a lot.

Here we go again, plunging into more stupidity

 

 Trump Administration Secures New Indictment Against Comey

The new case stems from a photograph of seashells on a North Carolina beach.

... The charge stems from an incident nearly a year ago, when Mr. Comey, vacationing on the North Carolina coast, posted a photograph on social media showing seashells arranged to say “86 47,” combining the slang term “86” often used to mean dismiss or remove with an apparent reference to Mr. Trump, the country’s 47th president. ...

When Mr. Comey learned of the uproar, he deleted the post, saying that he did not know that it had a violent connotation and that he opposed violence of any kind. The Secret Service interviewed him by phone that evening, and Mr. Comey said he had no intent to cause the president harm. The next day, he sat for an in-person interview. The Justice Department eventually dropped the matter, but it was revived in recent months. ...

 

The MAGA tariff unwind begins lol

HUMILIATION: Administration to Begin Refunding $166 Billion in Tariffs...

 

Businesses can claim refunds for Trump tariffs ruled unconstitutional starting Monday

 

Tariff refunds begin today. These retailers are due big paydays 

 

Inflation, whether pandemic induced or war induced, has been berry berry good for hiding price increases to boost corporate profits

 

Corporate America Aims to Preserve Profit Streak During War in Iran:  Higher inflation is leading companies to raise prices without sacrificing margins

 

... Sonu Varghese, the global macro strategist at the Carson Group, a financial firm, said many of the companies he tracked viewed inflation pressures from “outside shocks,” such as this war, “as an opportunity to raise prices and boosts margins,” which can, in turn, raise profits.

“I think we’re actually going to get some margin expansion,” Mr. Varghese added. ...

 

If the world had any brains it would skip the Semite wars in the Middle East over oil and switch back to coal while transitioning to nuclear and renewables

Known coal reserves are all over the place and can power the world three times longer than known oil reserves at current consumption rates.

 

South Korea, Japan, China, and India can more easily switch right now to coal from the LNG lost due to the Iran war, Taiwan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and the Philippines not so much.

 

This Is What Happens When the Gas Runs Out...

  

... India is another major importer of Middle Eastern L.N.G. that is likely to pivot significantly to coal, according to Wood Mackenzie. It has vast domestic reserves, and since the outbreak of the war, New Delhi has issued directives to maximize coal-fired output, ordering coal plants to operate at full capacity for three months starting in April. 

 

China likewise possesses huge domestic coal reserves, which, alongside gas piped in from Russia and a world-leading wind and solar fleet tied to the world’s largest energy storage network, have shielded the country from the worst of the L.N.G. supply shocks. ...

 

 

The panic-mongers on X are out in full force this morning saying Trump must do something about oil this week, all ignoring that Trump said on day one the Iran operation would take four to five weeks

It's been one week.

Oil is currently trading at $93, falling from above $115. NASDAQ is in the green. 

 

 

New York firewood supplier sold face cord equivalents, 8'x4'x16", for $493 during recent winter cold snap

 Shivering Americans Snap Up Firewood as Winter Grinds On...

 ... On Jan. 24, the day before a winter storm buried much of the Northeast in snow, Woodbourne Firewood had its highest-grossing sales day in the history of the company, which was started in New York in 2022, said Mr. Heby, 35, the owner. He said the company sold seven full cords of wood, units that are eight feet long, four feet tall and four feet deep, enough to fill a tractor-trailer and generating $10,356 in revenue in one day. ... Grahm Leitner, 48, a logging contractor and forester from Waterbury, Vt., said the number of days spent logging in a given year is about half of what it was in the 1980s, especially because of climate change. ...

 

The New York Times on the global economy had me and then it lost me

Because it, like too many commentators, uses an obsolete dollar index in DXY, which measures dollar strength or weakness relative to just SIX currencies: EUR, JPY (!), GBP (!), CAD (!), SEK (!), CHF (!).

 

The Federal Reserve has developed broader indices weighted to the countries the U.S. trades with the most.

 

U.S. GDP is $31.1 trillion. 

EURO ZONE GDP: $16.5 trillion.

Japan: $4.3 trillion.

Great Britain: $3.6 trillion.

Canada: $2.3 trillion.

Sweden: $0.6 trillion.

Switzerland: $1 trillion.

Global GDP: $117 trillion.

 

 The Global Economy’s Warning Signals Are Broken

 

 ... It’s as if cars, instead of slowing down at a flashing yellow light as expected, started speeding up. ...

 

The traditional connection between the American economy’s performance and the value of the dollar has also been snapped. Uncertainty tends to increase the dollar’s value compared with other currencies as investors seek a safe haven in risky times. But the dollar has sunk to its lowest level in years. ...

 

Analysts backed down on their predictions that Mr. Trump’s tariff blitz last spring would cause higher prices ... 

 

Even by DXY standards, the dollar is not weak at 97, well within its long term average range between 95 and 105.

 

And The New York Times is ignoring that wholesale prices increased at a higher rate in 2025 than in either 2024 or 2023. 

 

Anyway, you know what happens when people ignore the flashing yellow:

 

Traffic fatalities surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research highlights the fact that disadvantaged communities bore the brunt of the increase and calls for holistic solutions to promote equitable access to safe transportation.

 

 

Despite his denials last year, Trump's Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was friendly with Jeffrey Epstein in 2012 even though he claimed to have shunned him since 2005

 https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/us/howard-lutnick-epstein-island.html

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick Planned Trip to Epstein’s Island

 

Net tons through the Suez Canal in 2025 came to 0.52 billion vs. 1.41 billion in 2022, down 63%

 Trump's 7-week Operation Rough Rider against the Houthis was a total, and expensive, failure, compounding Biden's.

The pirates and terrorists won in the Red Sea.

... The first month alone of Trump’s bombing campaign cost more than $1 billion in weapons and munitions. ... 

 

 

 

ICE agent Ross backed up to get out of the way of Good and shoot her

 Watch here.

 

 

In November we get to remind Stephen Miller that government derives its just powers from the consent of the governed, whose duty it is to alter or abolish government when it attacks life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, abroad or at home

 

 

 Stephen Miller Offers a Strongman’s View of the World

 ... “We live in a world in which you can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else, but we live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power,” Mr. Miller told Jake Tapper of CNN on Monday, during a combative appearance in which he was pressed on Mr. Trump’s long-held desire to control Greenland. ... 

 

 

Alleged 2025 MIT and Brown University killer was a Portugese national who obtained permanent resident status under President Donald Trump in 2017

 

 Brown and MIT prof shooter suspect Neves Valente is found dead, authorities say

... Authorities said he is believed to have originally been in the United States on a student visa and obtained lawful permanent resident status in 2017.

Trump immediately tries to cover his ass:

U.S. green card lottery suspended after Brown University shooting 

... Noem said that Valente entered the U.S. through the DV1 program in 2017 and was granted a green card. 

“In 2017, President Trump fought to end this program, following the devastating NYC truck ramming by an ISIS terrorist, who entered under the DV1 program, and murdered eight people,” she wrote on X.

The Diversity Immigrant Visa Program (DV Program) allocates up to 50,000 immigrant visas every year, according to the USCIS website.

The program is a lottery. Visas are randomly allocated to individuals from countries with low rates of immigration to the U.S.

 

Bush didn't keep us safe on 911, and Trump didn't keep us safe in 2025. A young, talented College Republican is dead because of him.

If Trump can simply suspend the program in 2025, he could have done it in 2017 when he was president the first time, but he didn't.

 

The initial reporting on Rob Reiner's murder is like Pravda

 

Rob Reiner, Actor Who Went on to Direct Classic Films, Dies at 78

Rob Reiner, son of a comedy giant who became one in turn, dies at 78 

 

Rob Reiner, director of modern American classics, dies at 78

 

Rob Reiner death: When Harry Met Sally director and son of comedy legend, dies aged 78

 

Rob Reiner, Jewish comedy giant behind slew of iconic Hollywood films, dies at 78

 

Rob Reiner, Iconic Director & Political Activist, Dead at 78

Christie D'Zurilla, LA Times

40 million dead and wounded, the equivalent of 177 million in 2023

 Ukraine war casualties to date are estimated at 1.5 million, 1.1 million of which are Russian.

Tucker Carlson can't platform Nick Fuentes, only the New York Times can platform Nick Fuentes

 

We already accept that we can vote only where we are registered, so why do we allow campaign contributions from people and entities who can't vote where we are registered?

 The next thing you know the U.S. military won't be yours, either. It'll belong to Mellon heir billionaire Timothy Mellon.

 

... Here's a reform that would change everything: You can only donate to candidates and political organizations in the state where you are registered to vote.

Not where you own property. Not where you have business interests. Not where you "care deeply" about the issues. Where you are registered to vote – the place where you've committed to being a citizen and living with the consequences of governance.

This single rule would fundamentally reshape American politics.

 ... Change the incentives by changing where the money comes from, and you change what kind of people can succeed in politics – and what kind of Congress they create.

It's time to return politics to the people who actually have to live with the results.

 

Lindsay Mark Lewis, here.