The Iranian parliament Speaker says Trump is lying, uttering fake news, there have been no negotiations lol

Volume in stock and oil futures surged minutes before Trump’s Iran post

Iran Media Denies Direct Talks After US Holds Off Energy Strikes...

 

  

SPX/GDP, then vs. now

SPX(average annual)/GDP(trillions of dollars), then vs. now

1938: 131

1942: 52

1964/1965: 118 

1982: 35

2000: 139 

2009: 65

2019: 135 

2025: 202

Median 1938-2019: 81

This ratio has been above 139 for six consecutive years 2020-2025, which is unprecedented for the era shown. Even so, return places third because dividends are puny in the age of obscenely overpaid dirty rotten CEOs and management.

Return: nominal/real, average per annum, dividends fully reinvested

12/1942-12/1965: 15.43%/12.30%

12/1982-12/2000: 16.66/12.97

12/2009-12/2025: 14.09/11.23 

 

 

Ruh-roh, sign of a top

 

More low- and middle-income Americans are investing, report finds. Here’s why

 

Since 2020, the number of low- and moderate-income investors has increased 2.7 times, or 167%, according to new research from the BlackRock Foundation and Commonwealth.

 

In that time, factors including increased access to investment information and additional cash through Covid-19 stimulus packages helped those individuals to invest. ... 

SPX return since August 2000 vs. Jan 1871-Jul 1982

 

Aug 2000-Jan 2026: 8.19% pa / 5.53% real

Jan 1871-Jul 1982: 8.15% pa / 6.18% real

Jul 1982-Aug 2000: 18.99% pa / 15.28% real 

Current GDP supports SPX at mean value 2550

 31.49007 x 81

The case for stock market manipulation in the case of the proposed tariff penalties over Greenland is very weak

The tariff idea was floated before lunch on Friday, Jan 16.

Stocks closed down just 4-points that day.

The scale of the subsequent market reaction was comparatively minor in the event, and Trump pulled the trigger reversing himself very quickly unlike in April 2025.

Trump wants stock market winners, the rich, on his side, because he's losing the rest of us.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both post new closing highs today

 

Democrat minority leader in the House Hakeem Jeffries imitates Nancy Pelosi in sabotage of Congressional stock trading ban legislation

 Once again the most progressive Democrat elites, who pushed out Joe Biden, prove that they are not on the side of the people.

Jeffries Undercuts Congressional Stock Trading Ban

David Dayen, American Prospect

... The new proposal differs from the bipartisan bill in one key respect: It extends the stock trading ban to President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Regardless of the considerable merits of that idea, the reality is that no Republican will ever sign on to that, meaning that both competing discharge petitions will fail to obtain a majority.

“This is exactly what Pelosi did a few years ago,” said Dylan Hedtler-Gaudette of the Project on Government Oversight, referring to the former House Speaker’s endorsement of a trading ban in 2022 that extended to the Supreme Court, also blowing up a bipartisan negotiation. “This is not only an unserious effort, it’s an attempt to undermine and kill off the only bipartisan legislative vehicle that is gaining momentum. It’s really bad faith all around.” ... 

The bipartisan bill has the votes, at least in the House. Politically, Democrats would be advancing a policy that 80 to 90 percent of the public supports. Now that’s all gone nowhere, with cynicism winning out. ...

 

90% of all stocks are owned by the top 10% by wealth in America, so naturally the market is setting new records on persistently higher inflation

 They make their money raising prices on the 90% beneath them, who MUST be fed the narrative that inflation is "mild".

Wouldn't want to tell the truth and start a revolution or anything.

Stonks been bery bery good to Chico. 

 

 

Guy posted this just before 5 AM yesterday

 

Equity performance relative to gold in 2025 is seventh worst of all time but notably unique

2025, 2008, 2002, 1979, 1977, 1974, 1973.

Story:

... all the other instances of gold outperformance happened in bear markets for stocks or during major economic crises. ... 

The total value of all the stocks on the U.S. stock market is now 216% of GDP

 

... The total value of all the stocks on the U.S. stock market is now 216% of gross domestic product, a metric once cited by Warren Buffett as his favorite yardstick for whether the market was cheap or expensive. The current reading is “one of the highest levels on record,” according to calculations by Jennifer Nash at Advisor Perspectives. According to another long-running measure, the Tobin’s Q, the market is more than twice average valuations.  ...

More. 

Gold vs. SPX

SPX 1999-2025

  1,469.25 12-31-1999

   6,753.72 10-8-2025 close

   +359% 

 

GOLD 1999-2025

 

   278.88 average 1999 price per Kitco

   Spot gold was steady at $4,038.59 per ounce at 1226 GMT 

   +1348%

 

Open and shut case, right?

 

Well, not so fast. 

 

With dividend reinvestment SPX returned approximately 712% over the period, not just the 359% increase in the price level. 

 

$279 invested in SPX in 1999 would yield approximately $2,267 by now vs. $4,038 for gold, which yields nothing over time beyond the increase in its price. Plus you have to pay to protect your gold from thieves.

 

Still, the gold outcome has been about 78% better, but that's only thanks to the recent dramatic rise in the gold price since 2023 when gold was still in the neighborhood of $1,940 an ounce, after averaging just a little over $1,800 in 2022.

 

Although I expect gold to continue to rise, a stock market reset would most likely trigger a big self-off in gold as stock and other speculators raise cash to cover their debts.

 

As always, diversification is key to surviving as an investor. And more important than that is being able to cover your debts if you won't live without debt. 

  

Amazingly accurate

Real average per annum return from SPX 1/1871-9/2025, dividends fully reinvested: 7.07%.

Seen here:

 

 

 

25th anniversary of the August 2000 S&P 500 high

 The 25 years previous to August 2000 were 104.15% better.

 

Let's check in on real return from stocks since and before the August 2000 high to see what a real bull market looks like

 

$SPX since August 2000 through July 2025: 5.24% real, average per annum, dividends fully reinvested.

And the 24 years, 11 months before that to August 2000?

10.90%.

108% better. 

IYKYK. 

Let's check in on the S&P 500 version of the Buffett Indicator

The S&P 500 averaged 6,029.95 in June 2025.

Nominal GDP in 2Q2025 from the second estimate yesterday was $30.3539 trillion.

The first divided by the second yields 198.65, 145.25% elevated above the long-term median of 81.

Off the chart. 

Where angels fear to tread.

 

 

Gold has easily outperformed the S&P 500 over the last three years

SPX is up about 53% in the last three years vs. gold which is up about 90% (1775-3373).

If stagflation is our future, gold may do even better. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average closes at new record high Friday Aug 22 after Powell throws red meat

 

 Dow surges more than 800 points to post record close as Powell speech fuels rally: Live updates

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to an all-time high Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank could begin easing monetary policy next month.

The Dow climbed 846.24 points, or 1.89%, reaching a fresh high and closing at a record level of 45,631.74.

The S&P 500 rose 1.52% to end at 6,466.91. At its session high, the broad market index came within three points of its record.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.88% and settled at 21,496.53. ...

 

 

Forecasters YUGELY underestimated July producer price increases, aka wholesale prices, forecasting +0.2% month over month, getting +0.9% instead lol

 

Hey, they're only off by a factor of 4.5x.

Low inflation expectations based on June were clobbered by the facts, but to hell with the facts. $SPX is down only 0.07% at this hour.

The market cheerleaders desperately cling to the belief that the Fed must lower interest rates in September. When the numbers come in 0.1 below expectations, they go wild and drive up stocks like madmen believing they must be right. When the forecast misses like this they just hold.

On a year over year basis, the forecast was for +2.5% for overall wholesale prices, but they got +3.3% instead, seasonally adjusted.

For core wholesale prices the consensus forecast was for +2.9% year over year, but they got +3.7% instead, again seasonally adjusted.   

Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected

Wholesale prices rose far more than expected in July, providing a potential sign that inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday showed.

The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain. It was the biggest monthly increase since June 2022.

Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index was up 0.6%, the biggest gain since March 2022. ...

It's not a potential sign of inflation, you idiots. It's a real sign.

The year over year numbers, not seasonally adjusted, for core wholesale price increases in the July report are oddly unchanged from the June report in no respect, for the increases since October 2024. In fact, the figures are exactly the same to five decimal places. It's like everybody went on vacation and just copied and pasted and went to the beach: 

Nov 2024: 3.35987

Dec 2024: 3.74962

Jan 2025: 3.92532

Feb 2025: 3.73239

Mar 2025: 3.78846

Apr 2025: 3.07652

May 2025: 3.21542

Jun 2025: 2.62853

and Jul 2025: 3.65568.

The average of these Nov thru May is 3.54965. July looks like that, but June sure the hell still does not.

I smell a rat.

Meanwhile . . . 

Core cpi inflation yoy averaged 2.9% in the first half of 2025, but 3.1% in July.

Core pce inflation yoy averaged 2.8% in the first half of 2025 (July numbers come Aug 29th). 

But core wholesale prices were up 3.4% in the first half on average, and 3.7% in July according to today's report.

How long can producers not pass that along? Or do we have a broader issue here with trustworthy numbers, because Mad King Ludwig is in charge?