25th anniversary of the August 2000 S&P 500 high

 The 25 years previous to August 2000 were 104.15% better.

 

Let's check in on real return from stocks since and before the August 2000 high to see what a real bull market looks like

 

$SPX since August 2000 through July 2025: 5.24% real, average per annum, dividends fully reinvested.

And the 24 years, 11 months before that to August 2000?

10.90%.

108% better. 

IYKYK. 

Let's check in on the S&P 500 version of the Buffett Indicator

The S&P 500 averaged 6,029.95 in June 2025.

Nominal GDP in 2Q2025 from the second estimate yesterday was $30.3539 trillion.

The first divided by the second yields 198.65, 145.25% elevated above the long-term median of 81.

Off the chart. 

Where angels fear to tread.

 

 

Gold has easily outperformed the S&P 500 over the last three years

SPX is up about 53% in the last three years vs. gold which is up about 90% (1775-3373).

If stagflation is our future, gold may do even better. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average closes at new record high Friday Aug 22 after Powell throws red meat

 

 Dow surges more than 800 points to post record close as Powell speech fuels rally: Live updates

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to an all-time high Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank could begin easing monetary policy next month.

The Dow climbed 846.24 points, or 1.89%, reaching a fresh high and closing at a record level of 45,631.74.

The S&P 500 rose 1.52% to end at 6,466.91. At its session high, the broad market index came within three points of its record.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.88% and settled at 21,496.53. ...

 

 

Forecasters YUGELY underestimated July producer price increases, aka wholesale prices, forecasting +0.2% month over month, getting +0.9% instead lol

 

Hey, they're only off by a factor of 4.5x.

Low inflation expectations based on June were clobbered by the facts, but to hell with the facts. $SPX is down only 0.07% at this hour.

The market cheerleaders desperately cling to the belief that the Fed must lower interest rates in September. When the numbers come in 0.1 below expectations, they go wild and drive up stocks like madmen believing they must be right. When the forecast misses like this they just hold.

On a year over year basis, the forecast was for +2.5% for overall wholesale prices, but they got +3.3% instead, seasonally adjusted.

For core wholesale prices the consensus forecast was for +2.9% year over year, but they got +3.7% instead, again seasonally adjusted.   

Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected

Wholesale prices rose far more than expected in July, providing a potential sign that inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday showed.

The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain. It was the biggest monthly increase since June 2022.

Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index was up 0.6%, the biggest gain since March 2022. ...

It's not a potential sign of inflation, you idiots. It's a real sign.

The year over year numbers, not seasonally adjusted, for core wholesale price increases in the July report are oddly unchanged from the June report in no respect, for the increases since October 2024. In fact, the figures are exactly the same to five decimal places. It's like everybody went on vacation and just copied and pasted and went to the beach: 

Nov 2024: 3.35987

Dec 2024: 3.74962

Jan 2025: 3.92532

Feb 2025: 3.73239

Mar 2025: 3.78846

Apr 2025: 3.07652

May 2025: 3.21542

Jun 2025: 2.62853

and Jul 2025: 3.65568.

The average of these Nov thru May is 3.54965. July looks like that, but June sure the hell still does not.

I smell a rat.

Meanwhile . . . 

Core cpi inflation yoy averaged 2.9% in the first half of 2025, but 3.1% in July.

Core pce inflation yoy averaged 2.8% in the first half of 2025 (July numbers come Aug 29th). 

But core wholesale prices were up 3.4% in the first half on average, and 3.7% in July according to today's report.

How long can producers not pass that along? Or do we have a broader issue here with trustworthy numbers, because Mad King Ludwig is in charge?

The S&P 500 had five record closes in a row this week, and fourteen so far this year, for what it's worth

The S&P 500 averaged 6,029.95 in June. 

Using 1Q2025 GDP, current valuation of SPX 6,388.64 is 213, 163% higher than the 1938-2019 mean of 81.

Full year valuations around 213 were last seen in 1928-1930: 204, 248, and 228.

Real return since August 2000 through June 2025, two months shy of 25-years, is now up to 5.08% per annum vs. 10.75% per annum October 1975 through August 2000.

The mouse that roared. 

 

SPX closes at another fresh record: 6363.35

 

SPX closes at 12th record of the year

 6,358.91

From the story here: 

... “So far, the tariff strategy Trump is pursuing looks very inspired, generating serious income, resulting in major investments in the U.S. to avoid the tariffs, and has yet to cause the disruptions and inflation that the naysayers said were certain,” said Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates. “The stock market certainly reflects no fear of negative consequences.” ...

 

 

SPX since August 2000 continues to underperform the pre-Reagan era by almost 20% in real terms, the Reagan bull market era by almost 68%

SPX 8/2000-5/2025: 7.62% per annum nominal, 4.95% per annum real (inflation rate 2.54% per annum)

SPX 1/1871-7/1982: 8.15% per annum nominal, 6.18% per annum real (inflation 1.86%)

SPX 7/1982-8/2000: 18.99% per annum nominal, 15.28% per annum real (inflation 3.22%) 

 

We'll get the June 2025 Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday July 15th. The previous read was 2.4% yoy overall, and 2.8% yoy for the core.  

SPX vs. gold since 1913

 

Gold 1913-2025 ($20.67-$3500.05 peak on April 22, 2025): 4.689% compound annual growth rate, nominal.

The S&P 500 did better than that in nominal terms.  SPX 4/1913-4/2025 (8.79-5369.50, monthly average prices): 5.895% compound annual growth rate, which does not include dividends reinvested; the nominal per annum plus dividends reinvested produced 10.14% total nominal per annum.

In real terms the $20.67 price of gold in April 1913 is only $676.62 in April 2025, or 3.164% CAGR inflation over the period. So in real terms gold is up just 1.478% per annum over the period (from $676.62 to $3500.05). 

Again in real terms SPX is up more, 2.65% per annum without dividends reinvested over the period, and even more with dividends reinvested, 6.76% per annum.

Spot gold on July 4th was lower than in April, at $3329.67. 

SPX made a new high for the Fourth of July.

 

 

S&P 500 closes at another new high today

 

Every major bank passes stress test from the US Federal Reserve

507 banks failed in the United States 2008-2014 inclusive, costing the Deposit Insurance Fund nearly $90 billion. Many millions of homes went into completed foreclosure.

 

Big banks all pass the Federal Reserve’s less vigorous stress tests

 

... All 22 banks tested this year would have remained solvent and above the minimum thresholds to continue to operate, the Fed said, despite absorbing roughly $550 billion in theoretical losses. ...

 

Under this year’s hypothetical scenario, a major global recession would have caused a 30% decline in commercial real estate prices and a 33% decline in housing prices. The unemployment rate would rise to 10% and stock prices would fall 50%. In 2024, the hypothetical scenario was a 40% decline in commercial real estate prices, a 55% decline in stock prices and a 36% decline in housing prices. ...      

 

The 2024 benchmarks are a mixture.

 

Commercial real estate prices year over year fell more than 11% in 4Q2008, and more than 30% in 4Q2009. Planning for a future 40% decline seems appropriate.

 

The 2007 shock to the median price of houses sold was only 19% 1Q2007-1Q2009, with prices not recovering until 1Q2013. But since the median price of houses sold has jumped by about 31% just since 2020, planning for a future 36% decline is more than appropriate.

 

Unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009. The civilian employment level contracted by almost 7 million 2007-2010 on an average basis, and did not recover until 2014, seven long years later. Pandemic unemployment peaked at 14.8% in April 2020. We got as high as 10.8% in November and December 1982. Great Depression unemployment peaked at 25.59% in May 1933. This one is a crap-shoot. 

 

The average price of the S&P 500 fell 50.8% between October 2007 and March 2009, but in 2007 the S&P 500 was valued about 26% above the long term mean, not 130% as in 2024.

 

That's the datum that worries me. Just to get to its historical median value of 81, the S&P 500 today would have to fall 61%, to about 2425.

 

Imagine the howls. 

 

 

 

  

 

S&P 500 closed at a record of 6,173.07 on Friday 27 June 2025

 

S&P 500 closes at a record Friday, overcoming even more trade angst

1Q2025 real GDP revised down 0.3 to -0.5 in third and final estimate on an increase in imports front-loaded into 1Q to avoid Trump's tariffs

 Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

 

The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment and consumer spending.

 

Real GDP was revised down 0.3 percentage point from the second estimate, primarily reflecting downward revisions to consumer spending and exports that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports. ...

More.

Sounds like Howard Lutnick gobbledygook at the end there. Paragraph two speaks of an increase in imports. Paragraph three of a downward revision to imports. 

Which is it lol? 

Nominal 1Q2025 GDP clocks in at $29.962 trillion in the third estimate. SPX was at 5612 on Mar 31, yielding a crazy high stock market valuation of 187.  

I guess stocks didn't like the monthly Treasury statement indicating worsening fiscal conditions lol

 

Secular real return from stocks since investing at the August 2000 high compared with investing at the September 1929 high, twenty-four years out

 August 2000-August 2024 and September 1929-September 1953 both fall far short of 8.74% per annum real return September 1953-August 2000.

Real per annum return from January 1871-September 1929 was 8.34%.

 

 

 

We'll probably never know whether weak Russian invasion of Ukraine headlines like these at CNBC contributed to Trump's thinking that Ukraine started it

Shrinking from calling what Russia did an invasion was a temporary flight from reality for CNBC, probably motivated by keeping people from panicking and selling stocks.

It's all about the money, for Trump no less than for CNBC. And also for Vladimir Putin.

It should be about something else.

 

Trump's phony Liberation Day for working Americans evaporates into thin air, new 90-day pause brings 145% reciprocal tariffs on China, which tanked markets in early April, down to 30%

Stock futures surge. Crude oil surges. US Treasury yields surge.

U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days in major trade breakthrough

 

... The trade agreement means that “reciprocal” tariffs between both countries will be cut from 125% to 10%. The U.S.′ 20% duties on Chinese imports relating to fentanyl will remain in place, meaning total tariffs on China stand at 30%. ...

Trump had imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to respond with retaliatory curbs of its own, including restrictions on some rare earth elements. ...

Trade tariff manipulation is a stock-trading racket for them

Tariffs were enacted April 2, then suspended April 9.

 

One month ago:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Yesterday:

 

This morning.