Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson (LA-4) was for the ban on insider stock trading in Congress before he was against it

 My favorite part about his new position is that if we don't allow our representatives to make money somehow, we'll stop attracting talent to Washington, D.C.

You know, like Trump, whose primary talent is corruption. 

💋 

 

Silver is still up 6.14% year to date, gold 5.09% even as energy prices march higher

 But SPX is up 8.02% ytd.

WTI is up 84.01% ytd.

VGENX is up 20.88% ytd.

 

Investment grade corporate securities:  

VWESX is down 1.54% ytd.

VFICX is down 0.65% ytd.

VFSTX is up 0.27% ytd.

 

US Treasury securities:

VUSUX is down 2.52% ytd. 

VFIUX is down 1.05% ytd.

VFIRX is up 0.16% ytd. 

 

Inflation:

CPI (CPIAUCSL) is up 3.77% year over year in April.

PCE (PCEPI) is up 3.49% yoy in March. 

 

Nominal Broad Dollar Index:

April: 119.03

1Q2026: 119.01

2025: 122.75

5Y: 119.94 

 

GDP, Compound Annual Growth Rate

5Y: 7.031% nominal, 2.775% real 

 

 

Silver is up 12.24% ytd, gold is up 9.15% ytd

 SPX: +7.88% ytd

WTI:  +66.2% ytd

Ronald Reagan's faith in the American people's better judgment about how to spend their own money was . . . misplaced

"Well, our loyalty lies with little taxpayers, not big taxspenders. What our critics really believe is that those in Washington know better how to spend your money than you, the people, do. But we're not going to let them do it, period."

-- Ronald Reagan, Nationally Televised News Conference, June 30, 1982

The secret of Ronald Reagan's success was that he stroked the vanity of the people. 

Nominal return from SPX since he made those remarks has been 12.48% per annum through April 2026.

Just socking away a one time investment of $2,000 in the S&P 500 that summer and forgetting about it would have yielded you almost $353,000 by now.

But today just 2.6% of Americans in general have at least $1 million in a retirement account, and HALF of retirees aged 65-74 have only $200,000 or less.

Meanwhile, our betters in Washington have put the country $39 trillion in debt, and 73% of us die in debt ourselves, with the average owed just under $62,000.

The government we deserve!

 

Sleepwalking into a big recession: SPX hits new all-time intraday high 7230.12 on May 1 after oil jumps 78% year to date

 ‘Misplaced euphoria’: Markets are sleepwalking into a recession amid Iran war oil price shock

Global economies could be “sleepwalking” into a “big recession”, as investors continue to underplay the impact of the oil price shock, Amrita Sen, founder and director, market intelligence at Energy Aspect, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday. ...

“This is a massive, massive energy crisis. I have been equally amazed at how the equity market is completely dismissing it, talking about how great Q1 results are. They are not going to be great nearly to the same extent in Q2.” ... 

Gold is up 6.82% year to date, silver is up 5.29%

 SPX is up 5.42% ytd

WTI is up about 78% ytd 

The Jerome Powell Fed Chair era draws to a close effective May 15, but Powell could remain a Fed governor until his term ends in January 2028

Fed holds rates steady but with highest level of dissent since 1992

... In what may have been Chair Jerome Powell’s final meeting at the helm, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold the benchmark funds rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. Markets had been pricing in a 100% chance of no change. ...

It wasn't much of a dissent when the vote to hold rates steady was 11-1. Three of the eleven simply disagreed that right now the Fed should say as it does in the official statement that it remains open to new information which might suggest additional rate cuts in the future, when in their opinion that sends the wrong signal when inflation remains as elevated as it is at present.

Jerome Powell says he will continue to serve as a Fed governor, calls Trump criticism ‘unprecedented’  

... “My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe is in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve after my term as chair ends on May 15, and will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined,” he added. ...

Stock investors fared very well under Powell. Bond investors, not so much 

...  the S&P 500 rallied 14.7% annually under Powell, the third best performance for Fed chairs going back to 1970, Bespoke Investment Group found. ...

“He believed in easy money. He voted for all the QEs. He voted for zero interest rates,” Boockvar said. “It’s only when inflation mugged him ... that he became more hawkish ... .”

But the problem with accommodative monetary policy is, “Easy money gets investors drunk on things, and puts beer goggles on them,” Boockvar said. ’Sometimes it ends up OK, but other times it ends up in rampant inflation.”

 ... The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index that aims to track all U.S. investment-grade debt returned just under 2% annually during Powell’s tenure, far below the average of 6.5% since the 1970s, according to Bespoke. ... 

Analysis: The Warsh revolution is coming. Powell won’t stand in the way. 

... the only major challenge for Warsh, as far as Powell is concerned, will be driving consensus within the Fed for where to set interest rates. Wednesday’s dissents suggest that won’t be easy. But Powell, whom Warsh has described as a failed chair who chose inflation, went out of his way to say Warsh is up to the task.

The chair’s job is to “create consensus” among the Fed’s voters and to “be inside their thinking,” Powell said.

Warsh “has the capabilities, skills to be very good at that,” Powell said.

 

If Warsh cuts interest rates in this environment, he'll be choosing inflation, too.

Inflation is very painful for the people, but for a government which absolutely refuses to get its fiscal house in order Powell's choice of inflation was the only medicine available to him, faced as he was with a national debt snowballing toward $40 trillion and the moon after that, and desperately in need of devaluation. 

Year to date gold and silver are beating the S&P 500

 

Buffett Indicator in the news

 Wall Street on red alert as Warren Buffett’s favorite stock market gauge hits the worst reading EVER

... The so-called Buffett indicator divides the total value of all US stocks by the total economic output of the United States, delivering one simple number that sums up how investors are feeling at the moment.

Buffett said that a reading of 100 percent suggests markets are in balance - in other words, the stock market is worth about as much as the US economy produces in one year - while a lower figure means stocks are undervalued.

Right now, the index hit its highest reading ever - 232 percent - indicating that stocks are historically overvalued. ...

Right now, the indicator is well above its last two all-time highs: The 219 percent reading seen at the height of the 2021 pandemic stock market frenzy, and the 163 percent level at the 2000 peak of the dot com bubble. ...                                                                                                              

 

Using SPX tonight, instead of the Wilshire 5000 as Buffett does, we're at 224.8 vs. 1938-2019 mean level of 81!

The market has been obscenely overvalued way beyond the 1938-2019 experience for six consecutive years and counting, and investors keep keeping it that way by continuing to pour money into it. It won't unwind until they stop. And since they believe that the market goes only up, it will probably take a market-loathing mother of all economic disasters to change their minds and make them do so.

Meanwhile real return since August 2000 (139), the previous secular peak, is now 5.27% per annum through March 2026 (25 years, 7 months).

Real return from January 1975 to August 2000 (the previous 25 years, 7 months) was 11.19% per annum, 112% better because valuation was 61 in 1975 and falling.

Investing at high valuations by definition produces poorer results. Compare August 1965 (118) to August 2000 (139): 6.95% per annum real. 

(I need to update this chart for 2024 and 2025!)

 

 

SPX rallied 10% after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but ended the year down 19%

SPX is up almost 12% since March 30th.

 Investors are misreading news about the Iran war, analysts say as markets whipsaw

... The resumption of uninterrupted energy flows is what underpins any sustained stock market recovery, according to investment manager Orbis.

“It’s pretty clear to us that equity markets are viewing things with a ‘glass half full’ view,” Patrick O’Donnell, chief investment strategist at Orbis, told CNBC’s Europe Early Edition on Monday.

“What we’re focused on is whether the Strait of Hormuz is actually going to reopen again.”

He added that the ramifications of the conflict in the Middle East will have “quite a long-lasting effect” for the global economy and markets. ...

 

Barking dogs bark, market cheerleaders cheer

 S&P 500 marches higher one day after benchmark wipes out Iran war losses

The Iranian parliament Speaker says Trump is lying, uttering fake news, there have been no negotiations lol

Volume in stock and oil futures surged minutes before Trump’s Iran post

Iran Media Denies Direct Talks After US Holds Off Energy Strikes...

 

  

SPX/GDP, then vs. now

SPX(average annual)/GDP(trillions of dollars), then vs. now

1938: 131

1942: 52

1964/1965: 118 

1982: 35

2000: 139 

2009: 65

2019: 135 

2025: 202

Median 1938-2019: 81

This ratio has been above 139 for six consecutive years 2020-2025, which is unprecedented for the era shown. Even so, return places third because dividends are puny in the age of obscenely overpaid dirty rotten CEOs and management.

Return: nominal/real, average per annum, dividends fully reinvested

12/1942-12/1965: 15.43%/12.30%

12/1982-12/2000: 16.66/12.97

12/2009-12/2025: 14.09/11.23 

 

 

Ruh-roh, sign of a top

 

More low- and middle-income Americans are investing, report finds. Here’s why

 

Since 2020, the number of low- and moderate-income investors has increased 2.7 times, or 167%, according to new research from the BlackRock Foundation and Commonwealth.

 

In that time, factors including increased access to investment information and additional cash through Covid-19 stimulus packages helped those individuals to invest. ... 

SPX return since August 2000 vs. Jan 1871-Jul 1982

 

Aug 2000-Jan 2026: 8.19% pa / 5.53% real

Jan 1871-Jul 1982: 8.15% pa / 6.18% real

Jul 1982-Aug 2000: 18.99% pa / 15.28% real 

Current GDP supports SPX at mean value 2550

 31.49007 x 81

For WHAT?

 Congress Could Get Healthy Pay Raise...

... In private, many members suggest they deserve higher pay ...          

 

Meanwhile the story never mentions insider trading, which is how the net worth of your average member of Congress becomes about 100 times that of your average American. 

Congress doesn't get rich by making $174k, let alone $250k, a year.

Not talking about the real problem seems to be the mission of Congress, and of the press. 

The case for stock market manipulation in the case of the proposed tariff penalties over Greenland is very weak

The tariff idea was floated before lunch on Friday, Jan 16.

Stocks closed down just 4-points that day.

The scale of the subsequent market reaction was comparatively minor in the event, and Trump pulled the trigger reversing himself very quickly unlike in April 2025.

Trump wants stock market winners, the rich, on his side, because he's losing the rest of us.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both post new closing highs today

 

Democrat minority leader in the House Hakeem Jeffries imitates Nancy Pelosi in sabotage of Congressional stock trading ban legislation

 Once again the most progressive Democrat elites, who pushed out Joe Biden, prove that they are not on the side of the people.

Jeffries Undercuts Congressional Stock Trading Ban

David Dayen, American Prospect

... The new proposal differs from the bipartisan bill in one key respect: It extends the stock trading ban to President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Regardless of the considerable merits of that idea, the reality is that no Republican will ever sign on to that, meaning that both competing discharge petitions will fail to obtain a majority.

“This is exactly what Pelosi did a few years ago,” said Dylan Hedtler-Gaudette of the Project on Government Oversight, referring to the former House Speaker’s endorsement of a trading ban in 2022 that extended to the Supreme Court, also blowing up a bipartisan negotiation. “This is not only an unserious effort, it’s an attempt to undermine and kill off the only bipartisan legislative vehicle that is gaining momentum. It’s really bad faith all around.” ... 

The bipartisan bill has the votes, at least in the House. Politically, Democrats would be advancing a policy that 80 to 90 percent of the public supports. Now that’s all gone nowhere, with cynicism winning out. ...