Saturday, April 30, 2016

Scott Rasmussen didn't sound very happy about it on Mark Levin's show, but Trump and Hillary are tied at 38%

The punditocracy is increasingly unhappy about the popularity of Donald Trump with the Republican electorate. Scott Rasmussen seemed oddly eager to discuss the prospects for Ted Cruz against Trump in Indiana and the west.

Rasmussen Reports reported earlier here:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump and Clinton tied at 38% each. But 16% say they would vote for some other candidate if the presidential election comes down to those two, while six percent (6%) would stay home. Only two percent (2%) are undecided given those options.

Friday, April 29, 2016

Trump makes new national high of 44% in Real Clear Politics poll average

Marco Rubio sends message to delegates that Trump's entitled to the nomination because of massive voter support

Quoted here:

“Look let’s not divide the party. You have someone here who has all these votes, very close to get 1237, let’s not ignore the will of the people or they’re going to be angry. Delegates may decide on that reason that they decide to vote for Donald Trump but if they don’t it’s not illegitimate in any way,” he told Miami radio host Jimmy Cefalo.

Sally Kohn, looks like a white man, talks like a white man, dresses like a white man too, but is afraid white men will vote for Trump

Yeah, so? Look at you, you blue collar pervert.

One member of the Zero Hedge trinity commits apostasy, lifts the veil on the (very profitable) lunacy

Read about it here.

We've tagged the kooky stuff it says for years.

CNN says only "several thousand" attend Trump rally in Costa Mesa, California, when 18,000 fill the stadium and protesters RIOT outside

Here from CNN:

Scores of protesters took to the streets Thursday night outside a Donald Trump campaign event here, drawing out police officers in riot and tactical gear and on horseback who sought to disperse the crowd.

The crowd gathered in the streets outside the OC Fair & Event Center as Trump addressed several thousand supporters at the Center's amphitheater. At least one police car was damaged and several scuffles broke out amid the hectic scene.

Here contrast

The Pacific Amphitheatre was filled to its capacity of about 18,000 and many hundreds more were turned away. ... [Trump] welcomed onto the stage parents whose kids were killed by individuals in the United States illegally, including Jamiel Shaw, Sr., whose son Jamiel Shaw, Jr., was killed in 2008 when he was 17. "Donald Trump is giving us hope. All of our loved ones were murdered. We don't care about illegal aliens, we don't care. Americans first!" Shaw said.

Ted Cruz to announce his least favorite Old Testament food law at noon Friday news conference

Whatsoever hath no fins nor scales in the waters, that shall be an abomination unto you. -- Leviticus 11:12

FL Gov. Rick Scott: Trump is going to be the nominee ... the people have spoken

Quoted here in WaPo:

“It’s time for our party to unite behind Donald Trump and focus our time and energy on defeating Hillary Clinton,” [Rep. Bill] Shuster [of Pennsylvania] said in a statement.

That echoes what Florida Gov. Rick Scott said Wednesday in a Facebook posting calling for an end to the “Never Trump” movement among conservatives: “Donald Trump is going to be our nominee, and he is going to be on the ballot as the Republican candidate for President. The Republican leaders in Washington did not choose him, but the Republican voters across America did choose him. The voters have spoken.”

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Herman Cain urges Cruz and Kasich to withdraw for the good of the country

Quoted here:

“If I were Ted Cruz and Gov. Kasich I would step back and say, 'OK, let’s do what’s best for the party which would be best for the country now.' That’s putting patriotism above the delusional idea that there’s a path to victory for them ... There is no path to victory,” Cain said.

Cain said the same thing on an appearance on Sean Hannity's radio show this afternoon.

GOP delegate race update for Donald Trump, post-Tuesday's 5-state eastern primaries

With 502 delegates remaining in 10 contests beginning in Indiana next week, there are also tonight 70 unallocated delegates remaining in Colorado (3), Oklahoma (3), Wyoming (4), Louisiana (5), US Virgin Islands (9), Guam (8), American Samoa (7), North Dakota (18), New York (2), Pennsylvania (10) and Rhode Island (1).

Trump's total has risen since Tuesday's contests to 994, acquiring a total of 147 in his blowout victories as the final numbers have come in. 906 delegates belong to the eight other contenders.

This means he needs 48.4% of the remaining 502 to clinch the nomination, or 42.5% of the 502 plus 70, or an even smaller percentage if he forges an alliance with another candidate or candidates. Trump already has the endorsement of Carson (9 delegates).

Rush Limbaugh, master of the English language, sticks his quiver in his bag

I wonder where he puts his putter.

So I know everybody wants to put whatever quiver they can in the bag to say, "I got the bit of information that will prove to you Trump can't win and we're making a big mistake." People did the same thing with Cruz. I just don't think -- it's too soon. There's too much yet to happen. Nobody can possibly know what's gonna happen in November yet, despite what they might tell you.

German leftist critic of Trump's America First policy proclaimed the death of rapacious English and American free markets in 2008

Boltneck shakes hands mit Steinmeier in 2014
It took less than one day after Trump's speech for Germany to wet its pants. First VW kills profits, and now Trump is going to cost Germany a fortune. Steinmeier here went on record almost immediately criticizing Trump's remarks as incoherent.

Here the leftist was prematurely celebrating eight years ago about the death of right-wing economics in the West:

[T]he Social Democrats (SPD) are shifting hard Left to protect their flank. "The rule of the radical market ideology that began with Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan has ended with a loud bang," said Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's foreign minister and SPD candidate for chancellor next year. "We need a comprehensive new start, so we can reestablish our society on fresh foundations. People create value, not locusts," he said.

Ted Cruz to announce what he's having for dinner at 4:00 PM Eastern

Famous supporters of the original America First Committee, just a bunch of Nazis to Rush Limbaugh, included presidents Ford, Kennedy, Hoover

Donald Trump's statement of America First foreign policy

From the transcript here:

My foreign policy will always put the interests of the American people and American security above all else. It has to be first. Has to be. That will be the foundation of every single decision that I will make. America First will be the major and overriding theme of my administration. ...

Americans must know that we’re putting the American people first again on trade. So true. On trade, on immigration, on foreign policy. The jobs, incomes and security of the American worker will always be my first priority.

No country has ever prospered that failed to put its own interests first. Both our friends and our enemies put their countries above ours and we, while being fair to them, must start doing the same. We will no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of globalism. The nation-state remains the true foundation for happiness and harmony. I am skeptical of international unions that tie us up and bring America down and will never enter.

Rush Limbaugh slams America First as pro-Nazi, too stupid to know Gerald R. Ford was a founding member

As usual the dunderhead with the microphone misleads the people.

Your official jobs outsourcing ticket

From the story here:

In 2013, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) emerged as one of the Senate's top H-1B visa supporters, and argued for a 500% H-1B visa cap increase. But during his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, Cruz had a conversion. ... Cruz's decision Wednesday to add former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (and one-time GOP presidential candidate herself) as his running mate if he wins the nomination, may make his newly found H-1B beliefs a hard sell. At HP, Fiorina was a prominent supporter of the offshore outsourcing model, said Ron Hira, an associate professor of public policy at Howard University, who wrote about Fiorina's approaches in his book, Outsourcing America.

Why do the PACs for Carly Fiorina (Ted's new VP) and Liz Mair (Melania photo in Utah) share the same P.O. Box in Virginia?

And how about that very unusual $500,000 transfer from Ted's PAC to Carly's PAC in June 2015? Did that somehow trickle over to Liz Mair's PAC to finance the UTAH operation (March 2016)?

h/t CowgerNation

screenshot this morning
screenshot this morning

Under winner-take-all, this would be over: Trump would have 1,261 delegates after 5-state primary yesterday

Trump has now won 26 states and 10.1 million votes, with ten contests remaining through June 7.

Instead of getting all the delegates from these wins, he has to share 311 of them with a bunch of losers under the "rules", people who would otherwise be forgotten by now but for Republican elites' failure to tell them to go away as they would have in the past.

This is why voters hate the Republicans. They don't want to win, and they don't want anybody else to win, either, and have designed their system accordingly.

Republicans govern the same way. It's more important to them to follow a bunch of self-imposed rules (read "principles") than to do what the American people need. Free-trade and open borders uber alles, no matter how many people are hurt.

Trump has already surpassed the total vote received by both McCain in 2008 (9.9 million) and Romney in 2012 (9.8 million), but we'll still hear the Mark Levins and Rush Limbaughs of the world today failing to get behind the obvious new leader of the Republican Party while the remaining contenders for the nomination seal their ignominious reputations by refusing to concede.

Prediction: Trump will pick Rubio for VP

What the hell do I know, right? I predicted a Jeb Bush/Scott Walker ticket before Trump got in the race. 

But now, Rubio brings charisma, putative conservatism, youth which can be groomed for future office, the wisdom to recognize when he's been beaten, or wrong, and the character to concede it, articulation, the opportunity to make a friendly tilt toward the Spanish-speaking world, delegates and big hands.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Rich Lowry of National Review almost gleefully reports on the death of white America

Please love me, please!
As if the deaths expiate his guilt.

Here, where it's a "health cataclysm", "a slow-motion economic and social meltdown", a veritable expression of "American exceptionalism".

But wait, there's more!

"The white working class is dying from the effects of a long-running alienation from the mainstream of American life", he intones, "but there is no guarantee only one generation will be lost."

He only hopes.

Trump declared winner of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware at 8:36 PM

Scott Winship in National Review thinks only 37% can't cover a $400 expense, not 47%

The toxicity of "47" from the 2012 election remains.

How still over a third is hard put to come up with $400 for an emergency is better news describes the self-satisfactions of elite New York conservatism in the age of Obama, under whom income inequality has reached new heights along with the wonderful expanded safety net including welfare state insurance. Why, the middle class doesn't even need to save 3-months' expenses anymore, he says! Go Hillary.

The essay is otherwise full of cherry-picked dates which make the comparisons nothing more than glazed apples to preserved oranges.

Monday, April 25, 2016

Trump packs 'em in in Wilkes-Barre PA tonight, enormous crowds chanting "Build that wall!"

How big is the T part of the LGBT population wanting to pee in your bathroom?

The LGBT part of the population is 3.8%, or 12.2 million.

Some say the T part is only 700,000.

Others maybe 1.6 million.

It's odd the trannies are causing such a stir while the big balance of the others is getting a pass.

Maybe Trump's got that right after all. 

Bad faith Republicans Ted Cruz and John Kasich align with the establishment, unite to stop Trump in Indiana

The Hill reports here:

John Kasich will clear a path for Ted Cruz in next week’s Indiana primary, while the Texas senator will back down in two other states as the two GOP presidential rivals join forces in the hope of denying Donald Trump the nomination.

The two campaigns released statements minutes apart late Sunday night, telegraphing their strategies and calling on their supporters to follow suit.  

Sunday, April 24, 2016

WaPo details how the consistent conservative Ted Cruz has been a shapeshifter

Here, where libertarian Matt Welch says of Ted Cruz' shifts:

“And I think people have a right to be very skeptical as to whether there is a real core belief system.”

After New York, under Winner-Take-All it would be Trump 1089, Cruz 433, Kasich 66 and Rubio 57

And everyone would be telling Cruz and Kasich "GET OUT!"

Instead it's Trump 845, Cruz 559, Kasich 148 and Rubio 171. The also-rans are being enriched at the expense of the front-runner, mostly by allocations of delegates from congressional district wins which chip away at the overall winner of the states.

They won't divide the vote this way when Trump faces Clinton in November. Think of the electoral college votes from each state as delegates. Representing House and Senate seats held by both Republicans and Democrats, the winner of the popular vote in your state gets them all, regardless of political party affiliation.

It'll be winner take all in November. It should be now.

Congressmen aren't even elected this way.

If you win the popular vote in your district, you win the seat in the House. It's not because you won more delegates in the precincts.

If you win the popular vote in your state, you win the seat in the Senate. Senators don't get seated because they won more delegates in the congressional districts. They get seated because they won more votes.

But Republicans for some reason want to divide their primary votes for president along (already highly gerrymandered) congressional district lines, making the candidates creatures of the districts, not of the states. They do this out of fear that the more populous liberal urban areas will have an unfair advantage over conservative rural ones in choosing their candidate. So they interfere with the process instead of insuring the integrity of their party membership and of its primary elections.

Meanwhile Trump's won the popular vote in 21 states so far, Cruz in 9, Rubio in just 2 and Kasich in only 1, but the Chicken Party won't even take a popular vote in Colorado, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Wyoming, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa and North Dakota.

Republicans need to decide if they want to continue to be the Chicken Party, or if they want to take the fight to the enemy.

They already have a leader who is doing just that, if only they had the courage to follow him.

Friday, April 22, 2016

Ted Cruz won't build a border wall, and will increase immigration at the expense of American workers

From his speech announcing his candidacy for president on 3/23/2015, noted here, devoting just two lines to these issues which mention neither a wall nor the horrible impact of H-1B immigration on American stem-workers:

Instead of the lawlessness and the president’s unconstitutional executive amnesty, imagine a president that finally, finally, finally secures the borders.

And imagine a legal immigration system that welcomes and celebrates those who come to achieve the American dream.

Ted Cruz is merely a Marco Rubio without the Gang of Eight Bill.

Commenter explains Donald Trump to oblivious Marxist at CBS News MoneyWatch who appeals to Richard Hofstadter's passé paranoid style


It's not class resentment.

First you destroyed the way we funded our homes and communities -- the Savings and Loans.

Then you destroyed the ways we collectively bargained -- the unions.

Then you stole the [principal] of the Social Security Trust fund, some 2.7 trillion dollars so it couldn't earn interest and started to act like it was a handout you were giving us.

Then you shipped all the manufacturing jobs to China.

Then you shipped the service jobs to India.

Then you "commoditized" the mortgages on our homes in violation of the long standing "statute of frauds" and put them on the big roulette wheel you call Wall Street.

Then when that scheme failed you bailed out the banks that came up with the fraud and stuck us with the bill to bail them out.

Then you ran the money printing press so fast, so the big roulette wheel could prosper while the rest of us found our money buying less and less.

That is not called class resentment. That is called waking up.

Ingraham: Trump voters shrug their shoulders on social issues because they know Republican purists deliver nothing but goose eggs once in power

Republicans in office have accomplished ZERO on abortion and gay marriage, so why blame me?

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Guy one: What's the difference between a sink and toilet?

Guy two: I dunno, what?

Guy one: Remind me never to stay at your place.

Trump's libertarian bathroom views stink

Quoted here:

 "People go, they use the bathroom that they feel is appropriate."

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

47% would have to borrow the $400 for an emergency, sell something, or not be able to pay it

There's that number again.

And you thought the answer to everything was 42.

Story here.

Big Dope Mark Levin complains Ted Cruz' vote in NY might have been higher had NY Conservative Party members been allowed to vote

Well, the vote for Donald Trump in NY might have been higher had Independents and Democrats been allowed to vote, you big dummy.

Republican turnout in 2016 New York presidential primary dwarfs 2012 by 350% and 2008 by 28%

857,250 turned out yesterday in New York's Republican presidential primary with 98% of the vote counted.


Ted Cruz' window of opportunity to prove his principles are actually worth anything is rapidly closing

From Charles Hurt, here:

Mere weeks ago, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas pressured Ohio Gov. John Kasich to get out of the race for the Republican nomination because he had no mathematical chance of winning. ... now the exact same thing can be said of Mr. Cruz and his hopeless campaign.

Bloomberg says Ted is dead using AP delegate math and can't reach 1,237

The path for Cruz to 1,237 delegates before the July convention in Cleveland is now officially closed: 674 delegates remain in the states ahead, and Cruz is 678 short of the magic number, according to an Associated Press tally. Worse, his double-digit victory in Wisconsin on April 5 has failed to produce a perceivable polling bounce in key upcoming states.

That's based on 674 delegates remaining.

Beginning with Connecticut next week, Real Clear Politics also shows 674 delegates still up for grabs.

Bloomberg itself, however, shows 734 not yet allocated, including 3 in Colorado, 3 in Oklahoma, 4 in Wyoming, 5 in Louisiana, 9 in the US Virgin Islands, 8 in Guam, 7 in American Samoa, 18 in North Dakota, and 3 in New York. Subtract those 60 and you get 674.

At 559 delegates committed to him so far, Cruz needs 678 to get to 1,237, so technically there aren't enough left in the future contests, but those 60 from previous contests are still in the mix. 101 delegates or so will probably go to Trump in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island next week, balancing out those 60, with Pennsylvania's 71 delegates also in the mix.

After that, Ted will be truly dead. 

The delegates won by others are Rubio (171), Kasich (147), Carson (9), Bush (4), Fiorina (1), Huckabee (1) and Rand Paul (1).

With 845, Trump still needs 392, which is 58% of the 674 remaining in future contests, or 53% of the 734 future plus yet undecided, or . . . add in those won by others and Trump needs a combination of future wins, undecideds and poached delegates representing just 37% of the 1,068 total available.

Paul Manafort's job.

John Kasich wins (barely) one district in New York: NY-12, the richest district in the country by per capita income

That's what the New York Times' endorsement is worth.

The district includes parts of eastern Manhattan ("Well we're movin' on up, to the East side, to a deluxe apartment in the skyyyyyyy"), Greenpoint and western Queens.

Trump sweeps New York with 60.5% of the vote, gets 89 delegates

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Real Clear Politics has Trump the winner in New York at 9:05:30 PM without any votes!

9:05:30 PM
9:05:48 PM

Excuse me, 80% of New York counties didn't start the voting today until NOON, so spare me the outrage if some precincts weren't open on time

New York has 62 counties.

ABC News reports here:

This is because polling places in 50 of the state’s counties – outside the New York City area and Buffalo – opened at noon. People in those counties with day jobs can’t vote until after work, so they won’t be included in early exit poll results.

The Ted Cruz Math crumbles under the strain: Just a couple of days ago Ted said he had won 11 elections in a row, now it's just 5


And he's acting just like Obama with the whole don't interrupt me attitude, too.

Here from the interview with Sean Hannity:

"Sean, can I answer your last question without being interrupted? ... All of this noise and complaining and whining has come from the Trump campaign because they don't like the fact that they've lost five elections in a row," Cruz said.

New York hyperbole: Rep. Peter King says he will take cyanide if Ted Cruz becomes the nominee

Here, from the John Kasich supporting congressman:

"Any New Yorker who even thinks of voting for Ted Cruz should have their head examined. ... I hate Ted Cruz. And I think I'll take cyanide if he got the nomination."

Monday, April 18, 2016

Richard Lugar reminds us why he's no longer a Republican US Senator from Indiana

Where else but in the New York Times, here:

[W]e would seem close to an optimal state-friendly federal immigration policy.

When the president took his executive action on immigration, he was not flouting the will of Congress; rather, he was using the discretion Congress gave him to fulfill his constitutional duty to “take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.”

Ann Coulter: GOP has to beat Hillary in an ELECTION, not a little meeting, caucus or convention

Trump has won 20 elections, Cruz . . . 9.

Trump's winning vote is 6,008,245 while Cruz' is just 2,255,345.

This is as good as it's going to get for Ted Cruz: 196

That's the delegate distance between Cruz and Trump going into the stretch.

The number will only widen from here as Trump racks up delegates in New York this week and five other contests next week in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

After that it will be mathematically impossible for Cruz to reach 1,237.

Sunday, April 17, 2016

Reince Priebus says "a majority rules on everything", but it depends on what you mean by everything

"[U]nder the rules and under the concept of this country, a majority rules on everything."

Ann Coulter: People think libertarians are pussies

Because the country's gone socialist and all libertarians do is suck up to liberals on the social issues.

Watch here.

Draft their asses and send them to Syria.

Saturday, April 16, 2016

The current very strong El Nino now averages 2.16 for five consecutive measuring periods and is waning

September-October-November: 2.1
October-November-December: 2.2
November-December-January: 2.3
December-January-February: 2.2
January-February-March: 2.0

The very strong El Nino of 1997-98 had five consecutive periods measuring an average of 2.18, the 1982-83 just three measuring an average of 2.1.

The current episode is twelve months long (average 1.53), the '97-'98 was thirteen (average 1.56), and the '82-'83 was fifteen (average 1.30).

Friday, April 15, 2016

Enjoy the Big Boob on the Right while you can: Limbaugh's iHeartMedia may not last until the election

From the story here:

Concurrently, iHeartRadio’s parent company, iHeartMedia, is heading to court, teetering on bankruptcy. The once-dominant radio behemoth is saddled with $20 billion in debt, thanks to a misguided leveraged takeover engineered by Bain Capital in 2008, the same year the radio giant inked its disastrous Limbaugh deal. ... “It’s not a question of whether it collapses but when, and it’s likely to come sooner rather than later,” suggested Media Life. “It could be within months."

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Rush Limbaugh, shillin' again for Ted Cruz: "Think of a straw poll as an election"

That's precisely what Ted Cruz argues while claiming he's won all these "elections" where no elections were conducted.

There was no contest in Colorado. There wasn't even a caucus as there was in 2012, which Santorum won but got gypped anyway!

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Obama's war on coal kills Peabody Energy, the US' largest coal company

Number two Arch Coal went belly up in January.

Story here.

Meanwhile 7 coal-fired power plants in Michigan are closing this week to meet new EPA emission regulations. Almost 1,000 megawatts of electricity generating capacity go away as a result, to be replaced by north of 500 megawatts of capacity from a natural gas plant.

Details here.

Conservative elites want us dead, Trump wants us to live, any questions?

Watch it here.

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

No, it's all the savage thugs under-executed

When the Supremes rule that men can pee and poop in all little girls bathrooms, John Kasich will just say it's time to move on

OK, somebody confiscate this guy's Republican registration right away before someone gets hurt.

Lyin' Ted is on Hannity right now claiming he's won the last eleven primary elections

The guy still can't count. 

Let's see. Trump has won Michigan, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Arizona. That's seven.

Cruz has won Utah and Wisconsin. That's two.

Kasich's won one, Ohio, and Rubio one, DC.

Total = eleven.

It would be good if Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota held actual elections, but they haven't, and won't.

Imagine the fibs he'll tell as president. 

Delegate race update: Trump rises to 755, and after April 26th it will be mathematically impossible for Cruz

Trump is up to 755 today with 12 from Missouri. Cruz has 545. Trump needs 57% of the 842 left to get to 1237. Cruz needs 82%.

It will be mathematically impossible for Cruz after April 26th, by when 267 delegates will have been decided in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, leaving just 575 delegates for contests in May and June.

Missouri finally hands over 12 delegates to Trump a month after he won them, pushing him up to 755

From the story here:

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump added 12 delegates from Missouri on Tuesday, nearly a month after his narrow victory in the state's primary.

Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander — a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate — certified the March 15 primary results, giving Trump the additional delegates.

The race had been too close to call, but according to the final tally, Trump won with 383,631 votes. Ted Cruz had 381,666 votes.

The difference between conservative talk radio and Donald J. Trump is basically religious

Conservative talk radio accepts the rules but Donald J. Trump flouts them.

He's a good Protestant, and a great American: The father of our country, George Washington, refused to take communion, and wouldn't kneel in prayer.

The GOPe can write all the rules they want, and then they can rewrite them.

Better get started.

In response to angry caller about Colorado Republicans, Limbaugh says Colorado wrote the rules to stop Cruz, not help him

This is the standard Limbaugh response, which is nothing more than Ted Cruz' own "me-too" argument in a different form.

Trump will stop illegal immigration? Me too! (nevermind I'm trying to expand immigration)

Trump wants to build a wall? Me too! (nevermind I never mentioned it until Trump came along)

Trump is against lousy trade agreements? Me too! (nevermind Paul Ryan and I are for TPA and TPP) 

Claiming that Colorado wrote its rules to stop Cruz is nothing more than trying to paint Cruz with Trump's colors, as if Cruz is a victim just like Trump. THEN WHY DID CRUZ WIN ALL THE DELEGATES, HUH?

It's called reaching for the coat tails.

Limbaugh's man Ted Cruz has been sucking air since Trump arrived on the scene and has only survived by learning how to run in Trump's slipstream.

John Kasich thinks the Supreme Court runs this country, not the people, just like the GOPe thinks it picks the candidate, not you

“I do believe in traditional marriage, but the court has ruled, and it’s time to move on.”

Hey honey, look at this! Intellectuals!

John Kasich in NY today
Rick Perry

#NeverTrump Ricketts family billion$ behind the delegate poaching effort benefiting Ted Cruz in North Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming

From the story here:

After that contest [North Dakota], Brian Baker, a senior adviser to the PAC [Our Principles PAC], issued a statement asserting that the race “is coming down to a ground game battle for delegates. We will fight for every last delegate vote all the way to Cleveland.” Baker also advises the PAC’s biggest donors, the Ricketts family, who had contributed $5 million of the $8 million raised by the PAC through the end of February, and who had come under fire from Trump when their involvement was revealed.

Weekly NBC/SurveyMonkey poll gives it in November to Hillary, by only 2 over Trump, by 5 over Cruz

The race has always been closer than MSM let on. Most of their polling is designed to shape opinion, not measure it.

Details here.

In early March Rasmussen here showed Hillary ahead of Trump 41-36 for the first time after two polls in late 2015 had shown that match-up close at one or two points either way, in other words, too close to call.

Clueless Gruber quotes Mark Levin criticizing #NeverTrump, doesn't realize he's joined it

At the top of this last hour on his radio show.

Mark Levin, quoted here last Friday:

"So count me as never Trump.”

Keep working at it, Steve, you'll get it right someday.

Your vote means something: Now that would be a revolution

Donald Trump, quoted here:

'It's not right. We're supposed to be a democracy. We're supposed to be: You vote and the vote means something, all right? You vote, and the vote means something. And we've got to do something about it. We should have won a long time ago but we keep losing where we're winning. Today winning votes doesn't mean anything,' he said.

Monday, April 11, 2016

Rush accepts misleading NBC analysis showing Trump over performing delegate wins by 22%

From the NBC analysis here:

Trump now leads the Republican field with 756 delegates — or 45 percent of all delegates awarded to date. Yet he has won about 37 percent of all votes in the primaries, according to the NBC analysis, meaning Trump's delegate support is greater than his actual support from voters.

The math is not mistaken, just misleading.

If roughly 1635 delegates have been awarded so far to all GOP players, then Trump's delegate count represents 46% of those. The difference from 37% of the votes cast is indeed 22%.

But that's not a measure of Trump's "gaming" of the system, only of his real popularity over his competitors.

He's won, after all, 20 states outright in the popular vote while Cruz has won only 9. Trump should have a greater percentage of the delegates for that reason. And he does.

Republican proportional voting rules are bleeding delegates from both Trump and Cruz at about the same 35% rate

Trump has won the popular vote in 20 contests representing 924 delegates, of which he has been allocated only 609, or 66%. The proportional voting rules based on congressional district performance have thus bled away 34% of his support in those races. Ted Cruz bled away 206 delegates from Trump in these states, 22% of the total.

Cruz has won the popular vote in only 9 contests representing 433 delegates, of which he has been allocated just 271, or 63%. The rules have thus bled away 37% of his support in those races. Donald Trump bled away 115 delegates from Cruz in these states, 27% of the total.

And, on average, 10% of the delegates legitimately owed to both Trump and Cruz have gone to candidates who have had no chance of winning whatsoever, and wouldn't be able to argue they have a chance of winning were it not for this insane way of proceeding which gives them the delegates to say so in the first place.

It doesn't seem fair to the voters in these 29 states that their candidates won the popular vote but didn't win all the delegates, as in winner take all, which will most certainly be the rule when the Republican nominee finally faces the Democrat in November.

If all delegates in the Democrat primaries were allotted on a winner take all basis, the outcome wouldn't be much different than it is

Based only on the 29 states so far where Democrats have held contests which collected a popular vote, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders with 1142 pledged and super delegates to his 371 based on the Bloomberg data here, which are not complete in instances. That's a 75% to 25% race.

Turn it into winner take all instead, and the result isn't significantly different. Hillary would have 1803 pledged and super delegates from the 16 states in which she was the popular vote winner, and Bernie would have 698 from the 13 states in which he won the popular vote. That's a 72% to 28% race.

This analysis leaves out the 301 delegates so far where no popular vote was taken. They come from Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Alaska, Washington, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana islands and something called "Democrats Abroad".

It also leaves out the delegates Bernie has "poached" from Hillary under the rules in the states she has won, as well as the delegates Hillary has poached from Bernie where he has won the popular vote. On net I calculate Bernie has had the advantage from poaching, with 334 extra delegates in his column as a result in the 29 popular vote contests (661 minus 327).

As the delegate race stands today including all contests, it's a 62% to 38% race, with Clinton holding 1756 pledged and super delegates to Sanders' 1068.

That's close to the popular vote result on a percentage basis, where Clinton leads with 57% of the popular vote so far to Sanders' 43%, keeping in mind that we don't have a popular vote from 8 states and territories so far to make the analysis complete. 

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Trump has won the popular vote in 20 of 32 states, should have 924 delegates under winner take all, gets only 743 under Republican rules

To date Donald Trump has won the popular vote in 20 of the 32 primary/caucus contests, entitling him to their 924 delegates on the winner take all principle, but the Republican "rules" made at the state level give Trump just 80% of these overall, while enriching others with undeserved delegate allocations at his expense.

Imagine if that happened in actual presidential elections, where the winner of the popular vote in a state normally wins all the state's electoral college votes representing both political parties. Under the current Republican rules applied to the presidential election, the Republican candidate and the Democrat candidate might so split the electoral college vote between themselves that the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives under the 12th amendment because no one happened to reach the majority of 270. Think of that at the federal level as the equivalent of a party convention at the state level deciding the outcome because, in the case of Trump, he failed to reach 1,237. The more likely outcome would be Republicans losing national elections because of close contests in traditionally Republican states where Democrats still lose but cut into their electoral college allocations if winner take all goes by the roadside. Republicans at the state level are actually paving the way in practice for Democrat reform efforts of electoral college rules.

The unfairness of that is self-evident. Winner take all in a state in presidential elections is designed to smooth the way to national unity. But the Republicans have instituted "proportionality" rules to the extent that they can't, in their mad factionalism, unite along lines which are similarly simple, reasonable and attractive to people who wish to embrace the party, and their country. Donald Trump has brought hordes of new voters to the Republican Party, but all Republican Party elites can do is turn up their noses at them. 

Ted Cruz, who has won the popular vote in just 9 contests so far compared to Trump's 20, is entitled to only 433 delegates using winner take all. But he has 545 at this hour, 26% more than he should have, some of which come from states and territories where the people themselves aren't even allowed by the Republican elites to formalize their opinion by voting.

There is no popular vote taken this year so far in Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands or American Samoa. Republican elites from these places decide who gets their combined 153 delegates. And #NeverTrump factions in these and other states have worked hard to make sure Trump gets as few of them as possible, if any.

To make matters worse, obvious losers like Marco Rubio and John Kasich are playing spoiler roles out of all proportion to their standing because of these rules.

Kasich has a legitimate claim on the delegates of only the one state he has won, Ohio. Instead of the 66 delegates he's entitled to, the Byzantine rules of Republicanism give him 143, 117% more than he should have.

In the case of Little Marco, he's still trying to bind his allotted 171 delegates to himself when they should be free agents because he's dropped out of the race entirely. Entitled to only 57 delegates from winning just two contests in Minnesota and DC, Rubio's unfair influence has been magnified 200% beyond what he's legitimately won because of proportional allocation rules in this year's contests.

The message being sent by Republicanism is obvious to everyone. The Republican Party is an exclusive club which has complicated, intricate rules for membership designed to keep out the riffraff, not win national elections.

Unfortunately, those rules will continue to keep the executive power far out of reach for them.

If they want to win the White House, Republicans should embrace the new voters, and Trump.

To do otherwise is political suicide.

Trump has big delegate win at Michigan Republican convention, libertarian whack job Rep. Justin Amash DEFEATED

Justin Amash endorsed Rand Paul in May 2015; Cruz is only his default candidate
CNN reports here:

Trump's national delegate director, Brian Jack, called it a "big win" for Trump. "The most important votes occurred this afternoon -- we went 5-0. Five delegates for Mr. Trump ran for committee assignments; all five were elected," Jack said. He added, "This was a big win for Team Trump. We won 25 delegates from Michigan last month, and now, at least 25 supporters of Mr. Trump will be delegates to the Republican National Convention." ... Of Michigan's 59 delegates selected Friday and Saturday, Trump supporters filled 25 spots, Cruz supporters filled 17 and Kasich supporters took another 17 -- although it was unclear who all the delegates were permanently aligned with. ... Kasich supporter Chuck Yob -- the father of Republican operative John Yob -- beat Cruz supporter Rep. Justin Amash for the other spot on the credentials committee.