Monday, April 11, 2016

Rush accepts misleading NBC analysis showing Trump over performing delegate wins by 22%

From the NBC analysis here:

Trump now leads the Republican field with 756 delegates — or 45 percent of all delegates awarded to date. Yet he has won about 37 percent of all votes in the primaries, according to the NBC analysis, meaning Trump's delegate support is greater than his actual support from voters.

The math is not mistaken, just misleading.

If roughly 1635 delegates have been awarded so far to all GOP players, then Trump's delegate count represents 46% of those. The difference from 37% of the votes cast is indeed 22%.

But that's not a measure of Trump's "gaming" of the system, only of his real popularity over his competitors.

He's won, after all, 20 states outright in the popular vote while Cruz has won only 9. Trump should have a greater percentage of the delegates for that reason. And he does.