Christopher Caldwell for The New York Times thinks the American Empire has met its match in the Persian Gulf when it already met it a year ago in the Red Sea

... the United States lacks the military means to impose its will on Iran in a long conflict. In 1991 a million soldiers from more than 40 countries were needed to reverse the invasion of Kuwait carried out by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, a country less sophisticated than Iran and a fraction of its size. When Iran and Iraq fought each other to a standstill in the 1980s, deaths ran into the hundreds of thousands on each side. The United States would have to send a significant portion of its armed forces — which total only 1.3 million troops — to stand a chance of subduing Iran, and that force, if successful, would have to stay for a long time. ...

Here.

Caldwell is just as blind as Trump.

Neither one gets it that the lowly Houthis already beat us to a draw last year in the Red Sea.

Nothing is moving out of the Persian Gulf today, and tanker traffic through the Red Sea is less than half what it used to be in 2022, even under the new conditions of a world desperately thirsty for the Middle East oil no longer coming out of the former.

And neither one gets it that you can't have an American Empire without paying for it. 

We're $39 trillion in debt and can no longer impose our will in the world's vital choke-points because elites have pretended since Reagan that low marginal income tax rates are sufficient to maintain American Empire when what those rates have done is impoverish us and enrich our adversaries.

1,135 billionaires are the symbol of our lost empire. 

Caldwell steers well clear of naming the obvious remedy, and Trump's Big Ugly Bill will  do nothing but put America $62 trillion in debt by the end of 2032.

Taxes must be raised . . . a lot.

The average price of unleaded regular gasoline in 2022 was $4.09, but that's what I paid for it yesterday at Sam's Club, except now this morning it's $4.19!

Gasoline stations around Grand Rapids were selling gasoline for $4.29/gallon yesterday.

Gas Buddy says the average price in my county this morning is $4.791 and climbing. 

 

Does anyone remember The Bedford Incident?

 "If they fire one, we'll fire one".

With the United States blockading all supply coming in to Iran and seizing some vessels, there are roughly 100 container ships trapped in the Persian Gulf from which Iran can choose anytime it wishes to go shopping. 

Iran says it has seized two ships in Strait of Hormuz after U.S. extends ceasefire

Iran’s navy on Wednesday said it had seized two container ships in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, shortly after the U.S. extended the ceasefire and as diplomats seek to bring the countries together for peace talks.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy said in a statement that it had seized the ships for what it claimed were maritime violations and transferred them to Iranian shores, according to state media. CNBC could not independently verify the claim.

The announcement came after U.K. maritime authorities said two ships had been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported a third vessel had also been targeted by the country’s military. ...

 

JMIC Update 035 for the Middle East maritime region is confusing

 The data boxes cover April 14-20 but are entitled April 12-18.

And what is "2BAM Total" lol? Only The Sweet know for sure.

Anyway tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz E now average 3/day April 19-20 vs. 2/day in the previous five day period. Big whoop.

Tanker traffic in and out of the Red Sea through the Bab-el-Mandeb averages 20/day April 19-20 vs. 8.2/day in the previous five day period.

Is that reflecting a mad dash before the ceasefire ends tomorrow? 

JMIC update 034 for the Middle East maritime region shows Strait of Hormuz combined cargo and tanker transits averaging 7.5 vessels per day April 12-18 vs. 138 normally

 But tankers exiting the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz average just 2 per day April 12-18.

After the 13th, just 10 tankers have exited over 5 days, also 2 per day. 

Tankers transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to and from the Red Sea, whether northwest (3.5/day) and possibly through the Suez or southeast (4/day) and headed to East Asia, average 7.5 per day.

Suezmax tankers carrying up to 1 million barrels of oil are the largest which can pass fully laden through the Suez.

Before the war, a dozen or so VLCCs, which have a capacity of 2 million barrels, transited the Strait of Hormuz daily out of 65-70 tankers which did so.

Total SoH tanker exits daily used to average 25-30.

Yanbu on the Red Sea can fill 2-5 tankers daily depending on the size (maybe 4 Suezmax), plus 2 per day out of the Persian Gulf, so we are at the max operating at 23% of normal tanker exits in the last week (7/30).

And again, that's just tankers, not a statement of actual oil volume.

And which of these were stopped by the U.S. Navy after transit only the Navy knows, as do people whose full time job it is to know, which isn't me. 

If Monday pays attention to reality, oil prices will rise. 

 

Buckle up

 

Tanker transits in both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea crawled to a virtual halt on April 10-11

Just two out of the Strait of Hormuz April 10-11, just nine through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in either direction after Iran attacked the Saudi pipeline to Yanbu on April 8-9.

 

Trump cuts off the flow of Iranian oil with blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, about 1.5 million barrels per day, China most hurt

 Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail

 Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway

 

Iran must not be allowed to get away with the Tehran Toll Booth between Qeshm and Larak

 

Will War in Iran Kick Off a High-Seas Toll Binge?

Timothy Noah, The New Republic

Hell yeah: USS Michael Murphy shows up in the Persian Gulf, Trump announces the US has begun clearing the Strait of Hormuz

 

Kevin Asshat says even one tanker is big

Hormuz strait oil traffic way down after ceasefire; Hassett says even one tanker is big

"... being mindful of the fact that if you get one of those big tankers through, that’s 2 million barrels. So that’s a huge chunk of what’s missing," he said.

Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil were transiting the strait per day. ...

Estimates of supply lost which I have seen today say 9 million barrels per day of supply have been lost, worse than the COVID shutdown.

  

Some 230 tankers are loaded with oil and waiting to sail out of the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz, but they can't

 The Strait of Hormuz is not open as Iran controls access after ceasefire, UAE oil CEO says

... “This moment requires clarity,” said Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in a social media post. “So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled.”

Iran has made clear that ships must obtain its permission to pass through the strait, Al Jaber said. “That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion,” the ADNOC chief said. ...

 

America is no longer a world superpower because it doesn't have a Navy capable of maintaining freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, let alone in the West Philippine Sea or the Taiwan Strait

But we can still put people in a tin can and send them around the moon like we did already in 1968.

We also don't have a military capable of stopping Russian aggression in Europe, because we're too tired after Iraq and Afghanistan.

Put up or shut up, Ben. 

This Is What a World Superpower Looks Like

Ben Shapiro, The Daily Wire

And for what, Iran's hegemony over the Persian Gulf?

 Gen. Caine: More Than 50,000 U.S. Troops Flew 10,000 Missions Over Iran In 39 Days, Drank 950,000 Gallons Of Coffee

Trump's UN ambassador put this up about an hour before Trump decided to let Iran, out of all the countries in the world, charge a toll to get through an international waterway

20 millions barrels a day passing through is $20 million a day or $7.3 billion a year, going straight into the hands of Iran to build more missiles, drones, and nuclear weapons for to wipe Israel off the map and rule the Middle East.

Brilliant.

I'm sure all our new friends in the Persian Gulf who let us build bases to protect them are just thrilled. 

Trump belongs in a padded cell, not the Oval Office.

The world is spitting at us in contempt this morning. 

 

Today's drinking word is CINO

 Ceasefire in name only.

 

 

Ronald Reagan's goal of a 600-ship U.S. Navy made it to 594 in 1987, but in 2026 we can barely deploy 300 because of Bill Clinton, but Trumpty Dumpty never mentions that

 

 After the end of the U.S.S.R. in 1991, Bill Clinton gutted the Navy.

We went from 541 ships in 1992 to 336 by 1999.

And now we can't stop the Houthis in the Red Sea, nor Iran in the Persian Gulf. 

The U.S. has military bases in all Persian Gulf countries except Iran, from which Trump has launched attacks on Iran which will have the effect of bankrupting those countries

 There is something deeply insane about all this.

Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines which can by-pass the Strait of Hormuz and replace a part of the lost export capacity. Production will have to be curtailed because there's nowhere to go with it. And everyone in the world will be poorer for it.

 

 

In other words, this would mean Trump is going to cut and run from the Persian Gulf just like he cut and ran from the Red Sea on May 6, 2025

 Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz: Administration officials assess that forcing the waterway back open would mean extending the military mission

WASHINGTON—President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran’s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.

In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran’s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said. ...

 

The latest UKMTO JMIC Advisory on 3/29 indicates 12 tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz in the last 7 days vs. 2 previously, 78 through the Bab al-Mandab Strait vs. 130 previously

 Persian Gulf Activity: 1.7/day last week vs. 0.3/day prior week

Red Sea Activity: 11.1/day last week vs. 18.6/day prior week 

JMIC Advisory Mar 29

JMIC Advisory Mar 22