Meanwhile CNBC has an excellent story with great interactive graphs of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait before and after the Houthi and Iran conflicts

 And it's quite clear that the Iran war has had no real effect on the number of vessel transits through the Bab-el-Mandeb while destroying transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

Increased Saudi reliance on Yanbu on the Red Sea might change BAM transits in the future, but to what extent transits through SoH might recover is very difficult to say.

BAM transits never recovered from the Houthi threat, and SoH transits may not from the Iran threat, with serious implications not just for oil but for important bulk materials like fertilizer and helium.

SoH transits:

Feb 24 2026: 107.29

Apr 18 2026:   12.57

May 24 2026:    6.00

 

BAM transits:

 

May 24 2023: 82.86

Feb 26 2026:  40.14

May 24 2026: 38.14 

 

Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz might not return to levels seen before the Iran war

... Daily traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, collapsed by more than half from 75 ships on Nov. 19, 2023 to 31 vessels by January 30, 2024. More than two years later, traffic through the strait still has not returned to the levels once considered normal. ...

Middle East tanker transits May 19-25, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.4/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 16.4/day

 The table shown below is from JMIC Update 50.

The previous update was JMIC Update 48, the table in which in comparison with the one in 47 looked hopelessly screwed up, so I guess they just skipped an Update 49 and started fresh on May 19 lol.

There is no overlap in the table in 50 with the previous table, which has been the customary procedure from update to update. 

BAM NW averages 8.7/day, BAM SE 7.7/day.

Keep in mind NW tankers which transit north to fill at Yanbu, then leave and transit south again can thus become SE transits in addition to NW transits in the totals. Most of these tankers are making this round trip, and most of them are 2-million barrel capacity very large crude carriers which sail in empty and sail out again full. 

SoH E transits average just 1.6/day.

 

Only one side feels compelled to make peace in the Persian Gulf, and it ain't Iran

 

Robert Kagan: Trump seems to hope to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat

Which is exactly what Trump did a year ago in the Red Sea.

Beyond the near term endgame Kagan describes, and the isolation of Israel in particular, Trump's cowardice, weakness, and incompetence will have the unintended consequence of reinvigorating the climate and green energy madness which has already weakened the West. 

From the story here: 

... In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, Trump reportedly explained that the United States was negotiating a “letter of intent” with Iran that would “formally end the war and launch a 30-day period of negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The purpose and effect of such an agreement should be clear: The United States is walking away from the crisis.

... Trump has blinked many times in the confrontation with Iran—ever since March 18, when Israel attacked the Pars gas field and Iran retaliated with a strike against Qatar’s most important natural-gas-production facility. Trump then called for a halt on U.S. and Israeli targeting of Iran’s energy infrastructure, and the war effectively ended. 

... [Iran's] terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the strait, and an end to sanctions. For Trump to respond to this defiance by now calling for another 30 days of cease-fire and talks is a tacit admission of defeat.

... with 30 more days to heal, rearm, and fill its coffers with tolls, Iran will be a more formidable adversary. In 30 days, moreover, the new Iranian strait regime may already be firmly in place. As the Institute for the Study of War reports, Iran has been using the cease-fire period [since April 7] to “normalize” its control over the strait by “compelling oil-importing countries” to establish transit agreements with Tehran and charging fees on vessels from nations without such deals.

... Now that Trump has made clear he has no intention of fighting to reopen the strait, the stampede to get good terms with Tehran will begin. 

... By the end of 30 days, most of the world will have a stake in the new arrangement and will oppose any resumption of hostilities, even in the unlikely event that Trump wanted to go back to war. Trump no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.

... The president may also hope that he can change the subject by launching another military operation, this time against the government in Cuba. ...

Middle East tanker transits per UKMTO JMIC Update 47 May 12-18, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.00/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 15.42/day

The tanker table for JMIC Update 48 is a mess. It has the wrong dates, and five days of data are identical to the data in Update 47.

There was also a duplicate JMIC 46 update a few days ago, just minutes apart.

It is what it is.

From JMIC 47

From JMIC 48 (the dates should be 14 May-20 May like the Cargo Vessels table, but somehow the exact same data for May 12-16 from Update 47 reappears!)

 

From JMIC Update 46 for Middle East tanker transits May 10-16, 2026: SoH 2.71 per day, BAM 13.57 per day

 

There is almost nothing Athenian about China, nor Spartan about the United States

But here we are.

Does THE GRAUNIAD even know that Sparta won that war?

Does Xi? 

Meanwhile "Make America Great Again" handed our adversaries the rhetorical cudgel of decline wielded by Xi against Trump. 

America is great when it stands for human freedom, something Trump is too shallow to grasp. The very word strikes terror into the hearts of the Chicoms, and is our greatest weapon against them.

But under Trump America has betrayed freedom in Ukraine, and acted more like imperial Athens in the Persian Gulf than like Sparta.

The attack on Iran is looking more and more like the failed Sicilian Expedition every day. 

Aftermath: Trump Is Wrecking the U.S. Military

If Xi wants to win, he'll act more like Sparta and let the real Athens destroy itself. 

 

 

 

From JMIC Update 45: Bab-el-Mandeb Strait tanker transits average 13.42/day May 7-13, 2026

 Strait of Hormuz 1.57/day.

BAM tanker transits aren't even up to 2022's average of 30/day. The crisis of the oil trade is not being significantly ameliorated by Red Sea operations.

 

Estimates continue to put 5 million barrels per day leaving Yanbu, much of it heading to buyers in east Asia.

Fujairah in the UAE exports shy of 2 million barrels per day, also to the east. 

Iran's exports in April are said to be shy of 1 million barrels per day.

Kuwait exported nothing.

Iraq exported maybe 0.131 million barrels per day.

So 8.1 million barrels per day in April?

21.0 million barrels per day left the region in 2022. 

 

Update 5/18/26:

IEA estimates 8 mb/day bypassing Strait of Hormuz, flows still far below pre-war levels.

 

IMF: Transits through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remain half of what they were prior to the Hamas attack on Israel in 2023 and have not come close to replacing lost Persian Gulf shipping

 ... In the Red Sea, attacks on shipping that began in 2023 forced many vessels to reroute around Africa rather than use the Suez Canal. More than two years on, transits through the Bab el-Mandeb strait between Yemen and Djibouti remain stuck at roughly half their pre-attack level. ...

More.

 

Christopher Caldwell for The New York Times thinks the American Empire has met its match in the Persian Gulf when it already met it a year ago in the Red Sea

... the United States lacks the military means to impose its will on Iran in a long conflict. In 1991 a million soldiers from more than 40 countries were needed to reverse the invasion of Kuwait carried out by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, a country less sophisticated than Iran and a fraction of its size. When Iran and Iraq fought each other to a standstill in the 1980s, deaths ran into the hundreds of thousands on each side. The United States would have to send a significant portion of its armed forces — which total only 1.3 million troops — to stand a chance of subduing Iran, and that force, if successful, would have to stay for a long time. ...

Here.

Caldwell is just as blind as Trump.

Neither one gets it that the lowly Houthis already beat us to a draw last year in the Red Sea.

Nothing is moving out of the Persian Gulf today, and tanker traffic through the Red Sea is less than half what it used to be in 2022, even under the new conditions of a world desperately thirsty for the Middle East oil no longer coming out of the former.

And neither one gets it that you can't have an American Empire without paying for it. 

We're $39 trillion in debt and can no longer impose our will in the world's vital choke-points because elites have pretended since Reagan that low marginal income tax rates are sufficient to maintain American Empire when what those rates have done is impoverish us and enrich our adversaries.

1,135 billionaires are the symbol of our lost empire. 

Caldwell steers well clear of naming the obvious remedy, and Trump's Big Ugly Bill will  do nothing but put America $62 trillion in debt by the end of 2032.

Taxes must be raised . . . a lot.

The average price of unleaded regular gasoline in 2022 was $4.09, but that's what I paid for it yesterday at Sam's Club, except now this morning it's $4.19!

Gasoline stations around Grand Rapids were selling gasoline for $4.29/gallon yesterday.

Gas Buddy says the average price in my county this morning is $4.791 and climbing. 

 

Does anyone remember The Bedford Incident?

 "If they fire one, we'll fire one".

With the United States blockading all supply coming in to Iran and seizing some vessels, there are roughly 100 container ships trapped in the Persian Gulf from which Iran can choose anytime it wishes to go shopping. 

Iran says it has seized two ships in Strait of Hormuz after U.S. extends ceasefire

Iran’s navy on Wednesday said it had seized two container ships in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, shortly after the U.S. extended the ceasefire and as diplomats seek to bring the countries together for peace talks.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy said in a statement that it had seized the ships for what it claimed were maritime violations and transferred them to Iranian shores, according to state media. CNBC could not independently verify the claim.

The announcement came after U.K. maritime authorities said two ships had been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported a third vessel had also been targeted by the country’s military. ...

 

JMIC Update 035 for the Middle East maritime region is confusing

 The data boxes cover April 14-20 but are entitled April 12-18.

And what is "2BAM Total" lol? Only The Sweet know for sure.

Anyway tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz E now average 3/day April 19-20 vs. 2/day in the previous five day period. Big whoop.

Tanker traffic in and out of the Red Sea through the Bab-el-Mandeb averages 20/day April 19-20 vs. 8.2/day in the previous five day period.

Is that reflecting a mad dash before the ceasefire ends tomorrow? 

JMIC update 034 for the Middle East maritime region shows Strait of Hormuz combined cargo and tanker transits averaging 7.5 vessels per day April 12-18 vs. 138 normally

 But tankers exiting the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz average just 2 per day April 12-18.

After the 13th, just 10 tankers have exited over 5 days, also 2 per day. 

Tankers transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to and from the Red Sea, whether northwest (3.5/day) and possibly through the Suez or southeast (4/day) and headed to East Asia, average 7.5 per day.

Suezmax tankers carrying up to 1 million barrels of oil are the largest which can pass fully laden through the Suez.

Before the war, a dozen or so VLCCs, which have a capacity of 2 million barrels, transited the Strait of Hormuz daily out of 65-70 tankers which did so.

Total SoH tanker exits daily used to average 25-30.

Yanbu on the Red Sea can fill 2-5 tankers daily depending on the size (maybe 4 Suezmax), plus 2 per day out of the Persian Gulf, so we are at the max operating at 23% of normal tanker exits in the last week (7/30).

And again, that's just tankers, not a statement of actual oil volume.

And which of these were stopped by the U.S. Navy after transit only the Navy knows, as do people whose full time job it is to know, which isn't me. 

If Monday pays attention to reality, oil prices will rise. 

 

Buckle up

 

Tanker transits in both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea crawled to a virtual halt on April 10-11

Just two out of the Strait of Hormuz April 10-11, just nine through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in either direction after Iran attacked the Saudi pipeline to Yanbu on April 8-9.

 

Trump cuts off the flow of Iranian oil with blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, about 1.5 million barrels per day, China most hurt

 Trump says U.S. will blockade Strait of Hormuz after Iran peace talks fail

 Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway

 

Iran must not be allowed to get away with the Tehran Toll Booth between Qeshm and Larak

 

Will War in Iran Kick Off a High-Seas Toll Binge?

Timothy Noah, The New Republic

Hell yeah: USS Michael Murphy shows up in the Persian Gulf, Trump announces the US has begun clearing the Strait of Hormuz

 

Kevin Asshat says even one tanker is big

Hormuz strait oil traffic way down after ceasefire; Hassett says even one tanker is big

"... being mindful of the fact that if you get one of those big tankers through, that’s 2 million barrels. So that’s a huge chunk of what’s missing," he said.

Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil were transiting the strait per day. ...

Estimates of supply lost which I have seen today say 9 million barrels per day of supply have been lost, worse than the COVID shutdown.