Under Powell core pce inflation exceeded 10Y yield for 4 consecutive years (2020-2023).
Under Burns it was for only 2 (1974-1975).
The Bernank was Fed chair in 2012 when inflation only just barely outran 10Y yield.
Saturday, April 25, 2026
Friday, April 24, 2026
Thursday, April 23, 2026
Strait of Hormuz/Bab-el-Mandeb Strait JMIC Update 036 for 16-22 April 2026 tanker traffic
SoH E tankers: 2.57 per day April 16-22
SoH W tankers: 2.00 per day
Normal (2022): ~70.00 total per day
Down 93%
BAM tankers SE: 6.57 per day April 16-22
BAM tankers NW: 6.28 per day
Normal (2022): ~30.00 total per day
Down 57%
Adjusted for inflation from 1995, the average mortgage payment in 2025 was 37% higher than it might have been
In June 1995 the average mortgage payment in the United States was roughly $773.
Adjusted for inflation to June 2025 that's $1,635.
The actual average mortgage payment in 2025 was about $2,235.
Bill Clinton teeming up with Republicans in 1997 to turn our homes into mere commodities has really worked out great, hasn't it?
Especially for young people.
The median age of a first time home buyer in 1995 was 29.
In 2025 it's 39.
But your GOP-controlled U.S. Senate couldn't care less.
It stayed up late last night to scheme for more money for ICE even though ICE is completely incompetent to deport illegal aliens, but it never stays up to solve the most pressing problems of America's younger generations.
The blindness is mind-boggling.
Study finds that female liberals believe words can harm, tend to be emotionally less stable, see themselves as victims, experience higher levels of anxiety and depression, support laws which make you stfu
... “People higher in the belief that words can harm tended to be younger, female, non-White, and politically liberal.”
... restricting speech feels like protection as opposed to censorship.
... mental health appears to influence political ideology more than political ideology influences mental health, with increases in psychological distress predicting a subsequent shift toward political liberalism.
... the most empathic people support the least tolerant policies. ...
More.
Komrade Karoline insists that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz
"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."
Although the trend for continued claims for unemployment is slightly up since Nov 1, 2021, the overall trend for initial claims remains down since then
The average weekly figure for initial claims in
As if ICE doesn't have enough money already from the Big Ugly Bill to murder Americans in our own streets, the bloodthirsty GOP Senate has voted to give them MORE intending to use the budget reconciliation trick
U.S. Senate votes to advance $70 billion funding plan for ICE, Border Patrol
... Lawmakers voted 50-48 in the predawn hours to adopt the non-binding budget resolution and send it to the U.S. House of Representatives ...
Two Republicans — Senators Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski — opposed the measure.
If adopted by the House, the resolution will allow congressional committees to begin filling in the details on how the $70 billion would be spent in separate legislation that President Donald Trump would have to sign into law. ...
Republicans plan to employ a rarely used procedure known as budget reconciliation in the separate legislation, which allows some budget-related bills to bypass Democratic opposition in the Senate. ...
Such measures require only a simple majority for passage in the 100-member chamber, instead of the usual supermajority of 60 votes or more. Republicans hold a 53-47 seat majority. ...
After two U.S. citizens were fatally shot by immigration enforcement agents in Minneapolis, Democrats insisted that ICE and Border Patrol be subject to the same operational rules as police forces across the United States, including a requirement that judicial warrants be obtained before agents can enter private homes.
But weeks of negotiations ended in a stalemate. ...
Last year, Republicans passed legislation providing around $130 billion in funding for these two agencies, separate from their annual appropriations and the $70 billion now being advanced in Congress. ...
Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Does anyone remember The Bedford Incident?
"If they fire one, we'll fire one".
With the United States blockading all supply coming in to Iran and seizing some vessels, there are roughly 100 container ships trapped in the Persian Gulf from which Iran can choose anytime it wishes to go shopping.
Iran says it has seized two ships in Strait of Hormuz after U.S. extends ceasefire
Iran’s navy on Wednesday said it had seized two container ships in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, shortly after the U.S. extended the ceasefire and as diplomats seek to bring the countries together for peace talks.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Navy said in a statement that it had seized the ships for what it claimed were maritime violations and transferred them to Iranian shores, according to state media. CNBC could not independently verify the claim.
The announcement came after U.K. maritime authorities said two ships had been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported a third vessel had also been targeted by the country’s military. ...
Tuesday, April 21, 2026
New narrative alert as Trump tanks in the polls: Iran War was about 6 weeks as Trump said it would be!
I mean, that's true right?
We are in week 8, and the two week ceasefire which expires tomorrow has been extended indefinitely because Trump says Iran is too divided to speak with a unified voice.
The truth is whatever Humpty Trumpty says it is.
Buffett Indicator in the news
Wall Street on red alert as Warren Buffett’s favorite stock market gauge hits the worst reading EVER
... The so-called Buffett indicator divides the total value of all US stocks by the total economic output of the United States, delivering one simple number that sums up how investors are feeling at the moment.
Buffett said that a reading of 100 percent suggests markets are in balance - in other words, the stock market is worth about as much as the US economy produces in one year - while a lower figure means stocks are undervalued.
Right now, the index hit its highest reading ever - 232 percent - indicating that stocks are historically overvalued. ...
Right now, the indicator is well above its last two all-time highs: The 219 percent reading seen at the height of the 2021 pandemic stock market frenzy, and the 163 percent level at the 2000 peak of the dot com bubble. ...
Using SPX tonight, instead of the Wilshire 5000 as Buffett does, we're at 224.8 vs. 1938-2019 mean level of 81!
The market has been obscenely overvalued way beyond the 1938-2019 experience for six consecutive years and counting, and investors keep keeping it that way by continuing to pour money into it. It won't unwind until they stop. And since they believe that the market goes only up, it will probably take a market-loathing mother of all economic disasters to change their minds and make them do so.
Meanwhile real return since August 2000 (139), the previous secular peak, is now 5.27% per annum through March 2026 (25 years, 7 months).
Real return from January 1975 to August 2000 (the previous 25 years, 7 months) was 11.19% per annum, 112% better because valuation was 61 in 1975 and falling.
Investing at high valuations by definition produces poorer results. Compare August 1965 (118) to August 2000 (139): 6.95% per annum real.
(I need to update this chart for 2024 and 2025!)
JMIC Update 035 for the Middle East maritime region is confusing
The data boxes cover April 14-20 but are entitled April 12-18.
And what is "2BAM Total" lol? Only The Sweet know for sure.
Anyway tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz E now average 3/day April 19-20 vs. 2/day in the previous five day period. Big whoop.
Tanker traffic in and out of the Red Sea through the Bab-el-Mandeb averages 20/day April 19-20 vs. 8.2/day in the previous five day period.
Is that reflecting a mad dash before the ceasefire ends tomorrow?
Hear ye, hear ye, all ye who voted thrice for Nixon and thrice for Reagan, twice for Clinton and twice for W, twice for Obama and thrice for Trump
The Roman people were grossly gulled twice or thrice over, and as often enslaved in one century, and under the same pretence of reformation.
-- John Dryden
Monday, April 20, 2026
Lori Chavez-Deremer fired before she could be grilled in an upcoming congressional hearing, same as Pam Bondi
Trump is tired of the bad PR episodes like the one he got from Kristi Noem.
... “Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer will be leaving the Administration to take a position in the private sector. She has done a phenomenal job in her role by protecting American workers, enacting fair labor practices, and helping Americans gain additional skills to improve their lives,” Cheung wrote in a post on X. ... Two Republicans who speak with Trump told NOTUS they expected Trump to pull the trigger on removing Chavez-DeRemer on April 22, when she was due for what was expected to be a bruising hearing in Congress. ...
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| Kristi Noem |
 |
| Pam Bondi |
 |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer |
SPX rallied 10% after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but ended the year down 19%
SPX is up almost 12% since March 30th.
Investors are misreading news about the Iran war, analysts say as markets whipsaw
... The resumption of uninterrupted energy flows is what underpins any sustained stock market recovery, according to investment manager Orbis.
“It’s pretty clear to us that equity markets are viewing things with a ‘glass half full’ view,” Patrick O’Donnell, chief investment strategist at Orbis, told CNBC’s Europe Early Edition on Monday.
“What we’re focused on is whether the Strait of Hormuz is actually going to reopen again.”
He added that the ramifications of the conflict in the Middle East will have “quite a long-lasting effect” for the global economy and markets. ...
Sunday, April 19, 2026
Through yesterday, KGRR Michigan precipitation is 7.03 inches above normal for 2026 year to date
Wish the rest of you could have some of it. Our rivers are flooding.
JMIC update 034 for the Middle East maritime region shows Strait of Hormuz combined cargo and tanker transits averaging 7.5 vessels per day April 12-18 vs. 138 normally
But tankers exiting the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz average just 2 per day April 12-18.
After the 13th, just 10 tankers have exited over 5 days, also 2 per day.
Tankers transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to and from the Red Sea, whether northwest (3.5/day) and possibly through the Suez or southeast (4/day) and headed to East Asia, average 7.5 per day.
Suezmax tankers carrying up to 1 million barrels of oil are the largest which can pass fully laden through the Suez.
Before the war, a dozen or so VLCCs, which have a capacity of 2 million barrels, transited the Strait of Hormuz daily out of 65-70 tankers which did so.
Total SoH tanker exits daily used to average 25-30.
Yanbu on the Red Sea can fill 2-5 tankers daily depending on the size (maybe 4 Suezmax), plus 2 per day out of the Persian Gulf, so we are at the max operating at 23% of normal tanker exits in the last week (7/30).
And again, that's just tankers, not a statement of actual oil volume.
And which of these were stopped by the U.S. Navy after transit only the Navy knows, as do people whose full time job it is to know, which isn't me.
If Monday pays attention to reality, oil prices will rise.
Mad King Ludwig admits he might be nuts
This is all because Joe Rogan got his ear.
Trump accelerates psychedelic treatments and asks, 'Can I have some?'
... “In many cases, these experimental treatments have shown life-changing potential for those suffering from severe mental illness and depression, including our cherished veterans,” Trump said during a signing event in the Oval Office. ...
“Can I have some, please? I’ll take some,” Trump said, adding that he would “take whatever it takes,” prompting laughter in the Oval. “I don’t have time to be depressed. You know, if you stay busy enough, maybe that works, too. That’s what I do.” ...
Ibogaine is the only psychedelic mentioned by name in the executive order, but LSD, MDMA and psilocybin – the active ingredient in “magic mushrooms” – have also been studied in the US as treatments for post-traumatic stress disorder and depression. ...
Dumbass Trump, who never paid the slightest attention to what's been happening in and to Ukraine, is surprised how easily Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz with drones
The Wall Street Journal, here:
... The strait has been a particular source of frustration. Before the U.S. went to war, Trump told his team that Iran’s government would likely capitulate before closing the strait, and that even if Tehran tried, the U.S. military could handle it, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Some of the president’s advisers were caught off guard that tanker traffic would grind to a halt so quickly after the bombing began, according to a person in contact with the White House.
Trump has since marveled at the ease with which the strait was closed. A guy with a drone can shut it down, Trump has said to people, expressing belated irritation that the key waterway was so vulnerable. He has publicly oscillated between demanding support from allies to help open it and insisting that the U.S. doesn’t need or want military assistance. ...
White House concerns about security threats have been heightened, aides said.
In recent weeks, for example, Trump and his team have noticed an increase in security. On a cloudless night in April at Mar-a-Lago, every umbrella was up on the patio in an unusual arrangement, guests said. Club members were told that there was an effort to limit drone visibility, a Mar-a-Lago member said.
Rubio told others about standing outside his home at the military compound where he lives and watching a suspicious drone, administration officials said. Secret Service protection teams have expanded to carry weapons White House officials had never seen before. ...
Fars News Agency: Iranian silence is not golden lol
Iranian state news outlet questions foreign minister’s ‘unexpected tweet’ on Hormuz Strait
... The Fars News Agency added that Iranians worry about the “absolute and strange silence” from the country’s Supreme National Security Council and its negotiators.
“They [Iranians] accept it, but it is expected that at least a clear explanation be provided regarding the ‘reason for silence,'” the agency continued. “Public opinion raises this question: if it is in the country’s interest that the details of the negotiations or recent developments not be publicized, why is this very interest and the reason for avoiding transparency not explained to the people?”
The Fars News Agency called on its government to not “allow the enemy’s narrative and hostile media to fill the created narrative vacuum by toying with the spirit and psyche of society.”
“These days, Twitter and short, pithy statements are no longer a suitable medium for persuading domestic public opinion; rather, even this very ‘not explaining’ requires explanation,” the agency wrote in its last post in the thread. ...
Saturday, April 18, 2026
I should have guessed who was behind this ridiculous episode: Chaos agent Bill Pulte involved with Trump's Christ-like healer meme
Try to imagine Dwight Eisenhower golfing with a friend on a leisurely Sunday and discussing an image such as this one.
Trump discussed "Jesus" meme with Bill Pulte before posting it, sources say
... The original image of Trump as Christ-like healer didn't include the horned creature. It was published in February in a since-deleted X post by MAGA influencer Nick Adams, who wrote at the time that "America has been sick for a long time. President Trump is healing this nation."
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