Just 49.16% worked a full time job in October 2026

Sad!

 

Good economic news Trump could have used, but the ingrates wouldn't have cared anyway

 

 U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, way more than expected; unemployment rate slips to 4.1%

The U.S. economy added jobs at a much stronger-than-expected pace in October, while the unemployment rate moved lower as the labor market showed surprising strength.

... In addition to the strong payroll gains for October, prior months were revised up substantially: The August figure moved to 186,000, an upward revision of 53,000, while the September count shifted to 60,000 following an upward revision of 31,000.

Payroll gains also came in better than forecast. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and 3.1% annually, compared with respective estimates for 0.3% and 2.9%. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. ...

 

Michael Lind and the tariff advocates are delusional when they say tariffs will get manufacturing to come back to the United States

During the heyday of American tariffs, tariff revenues were tiny and went to fund a tiny federal government.

From 1880 to 1910, federal spending grew from about $300 million nominal to $800+ million, and tariff revenues more or less tracked it to pay those bills.

 

At the same time the rich risked their own money to build US manufacturing, and the tax code was uniquely arranged to reward them for it.

To put it simply, until Reagan we taxed ordinary income at high marginal rates, while income from long term capital investment received relatively preferential tax treatment. That investment translated directly into American manufacturing, higher-paying American jobs, and robust economic growth.

High marginal ordinary income tax rates, which dominated the tax code from WWI except during the roaring 1920s, were first brought down by JFK to 70% from 91%, then to 50% by Reagan I, and finally to 28% by Reagan II. Democrats subsequently lifted these into the high 30s where they are now. 

Capital gains rates of 25%, which persisted throughout the period, suddenly lost much of their appeal because the spreads closed. The new arbitrage which opened up because of globalization was between costly labor at home and cheap labor abroad, which the rich then exploited to get even wealthier.

For those of us who lived through this period, it was accompanied by the constant drum beat of one business after another closing up its domestic operations and moving them abroad, leaving a steady stream of workers behind who were forced to find usually less well paying work here.

We did this to ourselves and called it conservatism. 

Michael Lind here is delusional about how to turn back this clock:

Tariffs — taxes on imports — are a means to the end of “reshoring” manufacturing in America. By making some imports more expensive, Trump hopes to expand the market for those products at home for American manufacturers.

Apart from not working (!), this makes the consumer pay the bill instead of placing the risk where it belongs, with the capitalists, who have the capital!

You will never accomplish with tariffs, whose arena is now much too small, what you can with the stick of high ordinary income tax rates, high capital gains taxes on income from US investment abroad, and the carrot of relatively lower capital gains taxes on income from domestic investment.

We need to attract capital back to the United States and give it preferential treatment in the tax code while penalizing in a relative way the income received from foreign sources and from high ordinary incomes received at home.

Ordinary incomes up to $101,082/$134,776 single/married-filing-jointly in Sep 2026 should be free of federal tax, but anything higher should be progressively and steeply taxed.

Capital gains tax rates should follow the reverse course: steep taxes on income from capital held up to a year, and progressively lower taxes on income from capital held 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 years.

In such a tax environment, corporate taxes would be redundant, unnecessary, and counterproductive. 

Meanwhile 10 years of the Trump tariff regime are not working to revive domestic manufacturing, and the long term comparison with the pre-Reagan past remains negative.

 

Real GDP at 3.4% in the first estimate for 3Q2026 is good, but the trend since 2Q1983 is still not like the robust post-war

 I'd rather have the economy trending to 5.4% than the one trending to 2.2%.

Trump Republicanism overpromised and has not delivered. It has been nothing more than an irritable mental gesture toward Reaganism.

Reagan Republicanism, as a form of liberalism, underestimated the power of evil in human nature. It sincerely but naively thought that everything would turn out just hunky dory if you let people decide what to do with their own money, and give them more of it.

Well, they miss-allocated it, just in a more respectable form than the corner beggar. 

The post-war consensus had kept ordinary income tax rates high and arbitraged that against relatively lower long term capital gains tax rates which benefited the domestic investment which produced the jobs, marriages, durable goods purchases, and homes young people can only dream about today. In short, the GDP.

The high ordinary income tax rates went bye-bye, and the money went where it was willed in an orgy of individualism. The big money got miss-allocated in the dot-com bubble, and globalism arrived just in the nick of time to rescue it, fleeing abroad. As a result middle classes were built elsewhere while the middle class at home withered. It now had to work two jobs and have smaller, or no, families. And cultural commentators seriously wonder how identity came to be questioned to the point of gender.

We can quantify this social disaster in the form of $10.5 trillion of missing real GDP in 3Q2026 since 3Q1983.

We have today $24.611 trillion of real GDP, having grown at a compound annual rate of 2.733% for the 43 years since 1983.

At the 36-year post-war CAGR of 3.585%, however, real GDP would be $35.104 trillion instead, 42.6% better.

Nothing guarantees that growth would have continued at the old post-war rate had the Reagan Revolution never occurred, but that doesn't change the fact that he sold his program in the belief that America's best days were not behind her.

Arguing at this long remove that Reaganism hasn't really been tried reminds me of nothing so much as Keynesianism redivivus. And AOC thinks his first name is Milton.

Republicans today are oblivious to all of this, and the only Democrat who comes close to understanding it that I know of is Rahm Emanuel, but the Democrat Party of today openly hates the Joos.

We are, as the kids like to say, totally screwed.

 

The low hire, low fire economy: People who work don't realize how good they've got it compared with the past

Just 0.066% of the civilian population made first time claims for unemployment in 3Q2026, a number which has never been lower.

IT'S A NEW RECORD LOW. 

Average 3Q claims were 0.182549m.

Average 3Q civilian population was 275.417m.

% = 0.06628.

Never been equaled. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Meanwhile the unemployment level at 2.62% of civilian population in 3Q has very rarely been lower. It's been low like this so much recently that we forget how rare this level has been.

The 2025 average was higher at 2.67%, same as it was in the year 2000, but still remarkably low. 

There have been just 16-years averaging lower than 2.62% from 1948 inclusive, including two years under Trump I and three years under Joe Biden. 

80% OF THE TIME IT'S WORSE.

And the downward ten year trend for the measure, whether quarterly or monthly, remains intact, which is saying a lot given what we did to ourselves during the COVID-19 panic.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jobless claims near the lowest since the 1960s as low-fire trend continues

... a low-hire, low-fire environment, where there is little job growth but where employers are reluctant to cut workers. ... “Despite extremely pessimistic views expressed in consumer confidence surveys regarding the economy overall, countless headlines describing job cuts from a variety of businesses, and the phantom job-stealing power of AI, the claims data suggests that labor market conditions are stable,” Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, said in a client note. ...

These people have zero self-awareness and just pretend that Trump hasn't tried to prosecute more than 48 of his political enemies

You reap what you sow.

 

Sen. Slotkin Offers Disturbing Glimpse of Dems' Agenda

Miranda Devine, NY Post

 

... She wants to unleash a barrage of political investigations on Trump officials in order to frighten young people away from taking jobs in the administration. ... 

Globalization obviously hit America hardest after 1999 when total hours worked by all workers as a percentage of civilian population plunged as manufacturing jobs leaving the country became a flood, but people pretend not to see

1970-1985 sucked pretty bad though, long before the current suckiness which tastes like nothing so much as that era.

A country that doesn't work is a poor country.

But of course globalization after 1984 meant the good paying manufacturing jobs started to dry up because patriotic American businessmen relocated them to cheaper labor countries in East Asia.

😏 

 

LOL The Wall Street Journal Editorial Page tries to intimidate the Fed while putting lipstick on a pig

 The chutzpah of these people.

They mince the data for five paragraphs and then spring a zinger in the last one. 

Total nonfarm was up only 29,000 seasonally adjusted in September, but civilian employment was up 406,000 you see.

 

A Burst of New Workers in September

Wall Street Journal 

 

The labor force grew by 485,000, and most of those found work.

 

... The labor report should have no bearing on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later this month. In any case, the Fed should stand pat this close to an election, as we’re confident Chairman Kevin Warsh understands.

 

Meanwhile:

 

... the threshold for a statistically significant change in the household survey is about 650,000. ... 

 

But we can play the game, too.

 

The civilian employment level seasonally adjusted is certainly higher than when Trump was elected in November 2024, but what The Wall Street Journal won't say is that civilian employment is still lower than when Trump took office in January 2025, and still lower now than it was for most of 2025.

 

The positive change to the civilian employment level of 2025 is yesterday's news. We've had nine consecutive months of negative change in 2026. 

 

It hasn't been a booming economy for employment since Christmas. And in fact it has been contracting.

 

 

ROFLMAO III: A higher percentage of the foreign born work in Sep 2026 than when Trump was elected in Nov 2024, at the expense of natives

 Trump makes America great again for foreign born workers at the expense of native born workers!

Three strikes and you are OUT, Buddy!

Red lines are Nov 2024. 

 

 

ROFLMAO some more: More foreign born still work in Sep 2026 than when Trump was elected in Nov 2024

 Red line is Nov 2024.

65.0% of people 20-24 years old worked any job in Sep 2026

A lot more of this population worked in the past.

 

36.2% of people 55 and over worked any job in Sep 2026

Employment for people 55 and over is cyclical, peaking in the spring and the fall as this group tends to head south for the winter to beat the cold and north for the summer to beat the heat.

Employment for this group hit its lowest level outside the pandemic in twenty years in July 2026 with just 35.5% working any job. 

 

80.9% of people 25-54 years old worked any job in Sep 2026

This population is working close to its past potential. 

Just 30.4% of teens 16-19 years of age worked any job in Sep 2026

 This population needs to be shipped off to the factories and the fields.

 

Best Orwell economy ever: 48.9% had a full time job in September 2026, 49.0% in 3Q2026

 

Hurrah for Mark Krikorian, who finally calls attention to the single most effective way to get rid of illegal aliens: systematic nationwide worksite enforcement

Two years too late, Mark.

He puts the illegal alien population in America still at 13.5 million in July.

Here:

... One area where ICE’s deportation efforts have fallen short is at the worksite. Jobs are the primary magnet that draws people to immigrate illegally. And while it’s been illegal since 1986 to employ illegal aliens, there’s never been much enforcement.

While the Trump administration’s immigration policies have in so many respects been a refreshing break from the past, in this area they are not. While there has been more job-related enforcement than under Biden, that’s not saying much.

If the White House’s concern (and the lack of worksite enforcement is a White House decision) is to avoid sensational news footage of illegals scattering during a raid by La Migra, there’s an obvious solution. The worksite is the ideal site for what I call “briefcase enforcement” instead of “body-armor enforcement.” Raids by armed ICE agents will always need to be an option, but less sensational—and perhaps more effective -- would be ICE audits of the payroll records of suspect employers, accompanied by colleagues from the Labor Department and IRS and state agencies. This won’t work as a one-off, but if suspect employers across all regions and industries knew that hiring illegals would result in, at the very least, a paperwork colonoscopy, followed by a notice to fire the illegal workers (if they hadn’t already run off), there’d be a lot more interest in complying with the law. The possibility of fines or criminal prosecution would be an even greater incentive for employers to clean up their payrolls, though current law makes that difficult.

Worksite enforcement would also be an important spur for self-deportation. If you’re an ordinary, non-violent illegal alien and all you hear about is the “worst of the worst” getting deported, you might figure it’s worth keeping your head down and taking a chance that you won’t get caught.

But systematic nationwide worksite enforcement would change that calculation. The likelihood of arrest by ICE would go up, and even more likely would be that your newly vigilant employer would be shocked, shocked to discover that you’re illegal and regretfully have to let you go.

Once jobs in the formal labor market, where most illegals are employed, dry up, the incentives to give up and go home increase significantly. ...

Stevens throws a Hail Haley on the way out the door

Couldn't be more ill-timed, but the bill won't wait for life to be ready.

 

 New Social Security bill would lower retirement age to 60 for some workers

Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., on Wednesday introduced a new bill that would lower Social Security’s full retirement age for workers in physically demanding jobs.

The bill, called the Blue Collar Social Security Fairness Act, would make it so eligible individuals would be able to claim full Social Security retirement benefits starting at age 60. ...

 

I remember when most Americans called themselves middle class even when they weren't

The change mirrors the correct perception that America isn't what it used to be. 

 

The Term Working Class Is Useless

Monica Potts, The New Republic

 

... working class has always referred to people who earn hourly wages, often in unskilled or low-skilled jobs (or jobs perceived as not requiring skills, which is an entirely other conversation). Their bosses largely control their workdays. They don’t own assets, except maybe the house they live in, and don’t have investments or another financial cushion to rely on if they lose their jobs. They can work their way into financial security over time but are vulnerable to their factory or office closing—and, even worse, to finding that their skills aren’t easily transferable or are becoming entirely outdated in a rapidly changing labor market. They just don’t have a lot of economic power. They’re not quite in poverty, but also not quite middle class.

This is how I’ve always defined it, and some experts I spoke to recently do, as well.

But unfortunately . . .

 

... The Pew Research Center released a report just before Labor Day revealing that 60 percent of Americans—across education, income, occupation, and racial and ethnic groups—say they’re “working-class.” ...  

LOL Kudlow and Ingraham: The trades are making close to $200k per year, why aren't Republicans in Congress taking credit?

 Because Republicans in Congress, contrary to popular opinion, aren't all stupid, you dopes.

Fox’s Laura Ingraham Alleges ‘Many Republicans Secretly Want Trump To Lose’ Congress

... “One of the most incredible statistics is the Trump administration, in one year, has grown personal incomes more than Biden in four,” Ingraham stated, alluding to Census Bureau data released this week.

“That is correct,” Kudlow replied.

“Why aren’t Republicans screaming this from the rooftops?!” Ingraham exclaimed.

Kudlow replied by saying people in trade professions such as “pipefitters, electricians, welders, carpenters [are] making close to $200,000 a year.” Ingraham responded by saying that now is the “best time ever for men without college degrees.” ...

First of all, Ingraham says personal income, which is not the median household income data released this week.

Real personal income grew by 7.4% from the end of 2020 to the end of 2024 compared with only 2.1% from 2024 to 2025.

She means real median household income, which grew by only 1.9% in the four years 2020-2024 but by 2.6% in the one 2024-2025.

But one can forgive the American people for not being overly excited about that 2.6% increase because it is still part of a picture since the 1980s showing structural long term weakness, while the 2025 increase of 2.6% pales in comparison to Trump I performance in 2019 at 7.2%.

He campaigned on a return to that and has not delivered it so far. 

 

Meanwhile Kudlow's claim about trade incomes approaching $200k is just crazy.

Top pay in the skilled trades is for the building trades, and their average national mean wage is nowhere near $100k let alone $200k. It's north of only $65k.

And the mean is lower for the other trades.

For installers, maintenance workers, mechanics, and repairers it's $58k. For welders, fabricators, and assemblers it's $47k.

The building trades represent only 4.1% of the workforce.  

Altogether the trades represent just under 14% of the workforce. 

The votes of these 21 million matter a lot, but even assuming Kudlow's fanciful incomes, Republicans aren't going to win with them alone.

Republicans don't have a problem communicating a message. 

They have a problem seeing reality.

Here's the reality.

The median sales price of an existing single family home in August 2026 was $434,800. 

Using the old formula of affordability which said you can afford a home which is 2.6 times your annual salary, you'd need a job paying $167,231 to afford that one.

Or 3.5 welding jobs.

Like Marco Rubio said, you need more welders. 

In July 1978 60% of teenagers 16-19 years old worked, but in August 2026 only 32.8% do

Bring back the cult of work.