3Q2026
Most of this oil is now going to Europe and the U.S. instead of Asia because of the extra time and shipping cost for going around Africa.
The UAE is now in the catbird seat for shipping oil to Asia, at least until Iran decides to attack Fujairah.
Saudi Arabia ramps up oil exports through Mediterranean pipeline to avoid attacks in Red Sea
... Oil exports from Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir have more than doubled to about 2.3 million barrels per day in August compared to around 1 million bpd last month, according to data provided by the trade intelligence firm Kpler. The majority of those exports are Saudi crude, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler. ...
Saudi exports from Yanbu through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait were down nearly 90% to 1.3 million barrels during the week of Aug. 3, compared with 11 million barrels for the week of July 20 when the Houthis declared the embargo, according to Kpler data. ...
2Q2026
I find the Traffic Trends claim in JMIC Update 078 for BAM REALLY difficult to believe.
Combined cargo and tankers in the tables averages 35 per day on July 28 and July 29 compared with baseline 60.
Baseline tankers alone would be 30 per day, instead they're showing 13 per day average for the two days, 10.7 per day over the seven days.
The claim is that vessels are running dark.
But the Saudis are loading NOTHING at Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf, where there is also oil in the water in satellite photography, and the Houthis droned Saudi oil infrastructure to Yanbu in the Red Sea on Monday.
Meanwhile somebody droned two gas vessels at the Egyptian port of Damietta on The Med on Wednesday, clearly meant to signal that the Suez option's days may be numbered.
The oil business is a confidence game, and the authorities have a vested interest in maintaining it to prevent public panic.
Gasoline is now $4.49/gallon where I live.
BAM transits fell in JMIC Update 075 to 10.0/day since the Houthi Rebels announced on July 20 a blockade of Saudi shipping through the chokepoint. SE traffic fell to 4.0/day.
A product tanker is at anchor in the Red Sea off the coast of Saudi Arabia after it was attacked by the Houthis on July 22.
Professional observers report some tankers abandoning their runs SE and turning back NW while Chinese VLCCs apparently are being green-lighted through despite loading with Saudi oil at Yanbu.
VLCCs fully laden cannot transit the Suez Canal due to size constraints and must partially off-load before transiting and then re-load on the Mediterranean side of the canal.
The table shown below is from JMIC Update 50.
The previous update was JMIC Update 48, the table in which in comparison with the one in 47 looked hopelessly screwed up, so I guess they just skipped an Update 49 and started fresh on May 19 lol.
There is no overlap in the table in 50 with the previous table, which has been the customary procedure from update to update.
BAM NW averages 8.7/day, BAM SE 7.7/day.
Keep in mind NW tankers which transit north to fill at Yanbu, then leave and transit south again can thus become SE transits in addition to NW transits in the totals. Most of these tankers are making this round trip, and most of them are 2-million barrel capacity very large crude carriers which sail in empty and sail out again full.
SoH E transits average just 1.6/day.
Trump's 7-week Operation Rough Rider against the Houthis was a total, and expensive, failure, compounding Biden's.
The pirates and terrorists won in the Red Sea.
It's a picture of dismal failure.
The U.S. Navy has not made the Red Sea safe for free trade.
The Houthis remain a potent threat to shipping.
3Q2025 statistics compared with 3Q2023 show the number of ships transiting the Suez Canal down 49.8%.
Net tons passing through is down 65.8%.
The New York Times reports here:
... The cease-fire, which began May 6, ended a U.S. campaign that involved over 1,100 strikes against the Houthis in Yemen and became a source of embarrassment for the Trump administration after group chats about the strikes inadvertently became public. The Pentagon had planned on a monthslong bombardment, but President Trump ended it after about 50 days.
“If the intention was to restore freedom of navigation, which is what they stated it was, then the results speak for themselves: The shipping industry has not gone back,” said Richard Meade, editor in chief of Lloyd’s List, a shipping publication. ...
American inability to guarantee freedom of the seas is a serious turning point for the world.
From the story:
Uncertainty remains despite a U.S.-led military effort to curb the attacks. Maersk had resumed the Suez route, but suspended it again in recent days after one of its ships was targeted by missiles and small boats.
Asia-Europe is Maersk’s biggest trade lane, and freight rates on the route have roughly tripled from their early December levels, the Goldman Sachs analysts said, while “the impact on annual contract rates is likely to be positive, albeit dependent on how the security situation evolves.”
Maersk’s other major routes are seeing “positive second-order effects from the Suez disruption.” Global trade is also being stymied by drought in the Panama Canal.
However, analysts do not currently foresee the same level of global supply chain disruption and capacity constraint as experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic, which triggered a huge spike in freight rates and record profits for companies including Maersk.
Maersk said that, after monitoring the situation since suspending the routes on Friday, it had decided all vessels currently on hold and previously scheduled to travel via the Red Sea would take the Cape of Good Hope.
The vessels will continue on diverted routes “as soon as operationally feasible,” the company added. As of Monday, Maersk said it had around 20 vessels stopped en route, around half of which are east of the Gulf of Aden. The remainder are located south of the Suez Canal in the Red Sea, or north of it in the Mediterranean Sea.
More.
MSC, the world’s largest shipping carrier, said it is no longer traveling through the Suez Canal after its container ship, the MSC PALATIUM III, was attacked Friday while transiting the Red Sea under a subcharter to Messina Line. ...
In response to Friday’s attacks, in which three vessels were attacked, the World Shipping Council said it is deeply alarmed and concerned about the escalating crisis, and that it’s calling for decisive action to protect seafarers.
“The right of freedom of navigation stands as a fundamental right under international law, and must be safeguarded,” the council said. “The time for resolute international engagement is now.”
The U.S. government has been in discussions with countries of the 39-member Combined Maritime Forces to form a maritime task force to “ensure safe passage” of ships in the Red Sea.
U.S. Central Command, which oversees America’s military interests in the Middle East, has told CNBC discussions are ongoing.
