Showing posts with label Steve Liesman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Steve Liesman. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 12, 2025
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Pollsters on both sides agree: Bye Bye Blue Wave
Like it ever existed in the first place.
The Blue Wave was a joint creation of the Democrat Party and its allies in "communications", which is to say it was manufactured out of whole cloth for anyone who still happened to turn on the TV or the radio to get "the news". The number one objective? Demoralize the electorate which made Trump president. The polling operations funded by the Democrat media provided "proof". Like the cell phone towers which litter the American landscape, their websites became the online repeaters of this "information".
The point of this propaganda was to create the wave, not report on it.
Some polling operations were more honest, or stumbled into the truth.
Rasmussen has had the race tied twice, as far back as mid-August and also in early October (Christine Blasey Ford testified and Brett Kavanaugh defended himself on September 27th, flipping the poll from Dems +5 to Tied by October 4th).
Investors Business Daily had the race tied already in late July.
Rasmussen has had the race as close as Democrats +1 way back in May.
So did Reuters/Ipsos.
Just remember folks. For every 108 members of Communications faculties in America's colleges and universities, there are exactly ZERO registered Republicans among them.
Just about everyone you listen to in this country for information, from the time you're in kindergarten all the way to the retirement home, is a registered Democrat, or was "informed" by one.
Steve Liesman, here, getting out in front of the lies to burnish CNBC's credibility:
The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey offers mixed signals, but leans against a wave Democratic election like ... those that swept Republicans to power in 2010 and 2014. ... "A six point differential is not something that's going to cause a big electoral wave," said Micah Roberts, the Republican pollster on the CNBC poll, a partner Public Opinion Strategies. "Economic confidence that people have among a lot of groups is providing a buffer" for Republicans. ... Jay Campbell, the Democratic pollster for the survey and a partner with Hart Research Associates, is skeptical of a wave for the Democrats, saying the six-point advantage is "not enough to suggest this is going to be a massive wave election a la 2010." Campbell did add that the survey found a large 17 percent of undecided voters who will be critical to the outcome.
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
Steve Liesman tries to be charitable to Trump on 96 million wanting a job, but comes up short 5.9m
From the story here:
Trump said that there "are 96 million wanting a job and they can't get (one). You know that story. The real number. That's the real number."
It is unfortunately very far from the real number. There are in fact 96 million Americans age 16 and older who are not in the labor force. Of this, just 5.4 million, or 91 million fewer than the number cited by Trump, say they want a job. The rest are retired, sick, disabled, running their households or going to school. (This number is 256,000 fewer than last year and 1.7 million fewer than the all-time high for the series in 2013.)
... A more charitable explanation for Trump would expand the number to include those people who are working part time because they can't find full-time work, all the unemployed and those marginally attached to the workforce. This broader measure of slack in the economy, known as the U6, is about 14.7 million. It's the lowest since May 2008, and has come down by nearly 12 million since the worst of the job market effects of the financial crisis in 2010. And remember, many of these folks have work, though it's part time.
This isn't charitable enough because Liesman never adds the 5.4 million to the 14.7 million. He must know you can't do this because that would involve double counting. The monthly Employment Situation Summary always includes the "marginally attached" in the expanded figures, people who are not in the labor force, but they are a subset of the 5.4 million.
But this can easily be remedied, and one wonders why the BLS doesn't do this.
Here's the data, with links.
Not in the labor force, not seasonally adjusted, is 95.8 million.
Not in the labor force, want a job now, not seasonally adjusted, is 5.45 million (peak was 7.2 million in May 2013).
The unemployed represent another 7.5 million from the monthly Employment Situation Summary. Those who work part-time but would rather have full-time represent 5.6 million more in the same report. But both of those groups are in the labor force, a total of 13.1 million.
To those 13.1 million simply add the 5.4 million from not in the labor force above and you get 18.5 million unemployed.
To get that expressed as a percentage you have to add the 5.4 million in to the civilian labor force because they want a job now, here, because the unemployment rate is the unemployed as a percentage of the labor force, which by the addition is now larger, 164.4 million.
So that yields a real unemployment rate of 11.3%. The U6RATE comes up quite short of this, at 9.2%. Meanwhile most people think everything's great because the headline rate is only 4.7% (7.5 million unemployed as a percentage of 159.6 million in the labor force).
There are not 96 million unemployed as Trump laughably says, but neither are there the 12.6 million Liesman ends up with, either.
18.5 million are unemployed in December 2016, at a rate of 11.3%.
It is unfortunately very far from the real number. There are in fact 96 million Americans age 16 and older who are not in the labor force. Of this, just 5.4 million, or 91 million fewer than the number cited by Trump, say they want a job. The rest are retired, sick, disabled, running their households or going to school. (This number is 256,000 fewer than last year and 1.7 million fewer than the all-time high for the series in 2013.)
... A more charitable explanation for Trump would expand the number to include those people who are working part time because they can't find full-time work, all the unemployed and those marginally attached to the workforce. This broader measure of slack in the economy, known as the U6, is about 14.7 million. It's the lowest since May 2008, and has come down by nearly 12 million since the worst of the job market effects of the financial crisis in 2010. And remember, many of these folks have work, though it's part time.
This isn't charitable enough because Liesman never adds the 5.4 million to the 14.7 million. He must know you can't do this because that would involve double counting. The monthly Employment Situation Summary always includes the "marginally attached" in the expanded figures, people who are not in the labor force, but they are a subset of the 5.4 million.
But this can easily be remedied, and one wonders why the BLS doesn't do this.
Here's the data, with links.
Not in the labor force, not seasonally adjusted, is 95.8 million.
Not in the labor force, want a job now, not seasonally adjusted, is 5.45 million (peak was 7.2 million in May 2013).
The unemployed represent another 7.5 million from the monthly Employment Situation Summary. Those who work part-time but would rather have full-time represent 5.6 million more in the same report. But both of those groups are in the labor force, a total of 13.1 million.
To those 13.1 million simply add the 5.4 million from not in the labor force above and you get 18.5 million unemployed.
To get that expressed as a percentage you have to add the 5.4 million in to the civilian labor force because they want a job now, here, because the unemployment rate is the unemployed as a percentage of the labor force, which by the addition is now larger, 164.4 million.
So that yields a real unemployment rate of 11.3%. The U6RATE comes up quite short of this, at 9.2%. Meanwhile most people think everything's great because the headline rate is only 4.7% (7.5 million unemployed as a percentage of 159.6 million in the labor force).
There are not 96 million unemployed as Trump laughably says, but neither are there the 12.6 million Liesman ends up with, either.
18.5 million are unemployed in December 2016, at a rate of 11.3%.
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