15-year total return from popular Vanguard index funds through 12/31/14 shows bonds beating stocks since 1999 except on the short end

Per annum return per Morningstar tonight:

Total international stock index, VGTSX = 2.96%

Short term bond index, VBISX = 4.05%

S&P 500 stock index, VFINX = 4.13%

Total stock market index, VTSMX = 4.75%

Total bond market index, VBMFX = 5.45%

Intermediate term bond index, VBIIX = 6.52%

Long term bond index, VBLTX = 8.37%

Bonds Beat Both Stocks And Cash For The Last 15 Years 1999-2014

The return from cash in the Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund has been 2.3% per year for the last 15 years, according to Morningstar. Note that the return over the last one, three and five years of that period has been effectively zero, which is what you get also from gold at all times and in all places . . . plus the shine.

The return from stocks in the Vanguard S&P500 Index Fund has been 4.2% per year for the last 15 years, according to Morningstar. Note that the one, three and five year returns have been three to five times the 15 year return. The S&P500 is currently very richly valued, and in real terms its level is about 7.1% off its all time high in August 2000.

The return from bonds in the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund has been 5.15% per year for the last 15 years, according to Morningstar. At the current NAV of 10.71, the price of the fund is richly valued, about 2% above what looks like the historical high end of normal at around 10.50 per share.

Stocks Have Barely Beaten The Lowly Money Markets From The March 2000 Highs

For the full thirteen year period since March 2000 (when the S&P500 reached the last of six annual new high watermarks going back to 1995) to March 2013 (when the index had firmly revisited the 1500 level) stocks have barely beaten the performance of the lowly money markets.

Had you invested $10,000 in, say, the Vanguard S&P500 Index Fund, VFINX, you would have reaped an extra $3,900.02 (39%).

But the same amount invested in Vanguard's Prime Money Market Fund, VMMXX, would have netted you $3,370.96 (33.7%).

Charts from Morningstar using Vanguard data: