The gold miners are digging holes in the basement

Gold miners dive: VGPMX plunged to 8.91 yesterday, hasn't been that cheap since January 2002

The historical low for VGPMX was 5.05 on 8/31/98. The historical high was 40.02 on 5/19/08. The maximum NAV gain was 692.47%.

Alan Greenspan gave gold the kiss of death on Wednesday, suggesting it was a good investment idea going forward. Gold promptly fell out of bed, dropping $21.50 on Thursday and today is down about another $35 so far. Miners say they cannot remain profitable if gold departs much from the $1,200 range. Meanwhile the dollar is soaring toward 87 as the Fed has ended QE.

The maximum NAV gain for VTSMX, by the way, has been 414.31%.

VGPMX tanked to 9.50 yesterday

You have to go back to 2002 to get a price lower than that. Declining gold prices from nearly $1,900 an ounce in 2011 to a range around $1,200 now have put the screws to miners' profitability. New accounting rules for the industry suggest that costs to produce an ounce are too high to justify more production in many places, costs which well exceed the current price of gold. That might mean a floor for the price of gold has been or will be forming near $1,200 as higher cost mines slow production. The average price per ounce in 2013 of $1,411 has fallen so far in 2014 to $1,282.

VGPMX at 9.63 hasn't been this cheap since 2003

The 2009 low was 9.73.

The thing is, the historical low water mark for this sector fund, which is a stock fund not a pure metals fund, was in August 1998 at 5.05. You could really lose your shirt in this fund even at this bargain price. I'd look for a broader stock market correction than the current 5% before I even thought about it more seriously.

On January 2, 2002 this fund was at 8.56. Following the Peter Cundill rule, you would have sold your entire initial investment in this fund at that price by late 2003 and recouped it because it would have doubled already at 17.12. (Often the easy money is made quickly off the lows, but it did take until February 2002 for the 5.05 price to double to 10.10, not quite four years.) The all-time high for this fund at 40.02 in May 2008 did not come until almost five years later.

At 10.01 VGPMX is tonight again below the March 2009 low of 10.04

Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining is looking attractive once again, revisiting the territory of December 2013 when the fund briefly dipped below 10.00 to 9.69 or so. If a real stock market correction of 10% or more makes an appearance at long last, I'd expect the fund to fall in price quite a bit more, this sector fund being a stock fund. A stock market bear of 20% or more might actually take the NAV much lower, with the vicinity of 5.00 being not inconceivable.

Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Down Over 70% In Last 6 Years

click to enlarge

Ouch, and down 75% from the 2008 high.

Gold Miners Starting To Look Attractive As Gold Tanks To $1,230

A relatively diversified precious metals industry fund like VGPMX is starting to look like an attractive investment. The fund NAV has now fallen to within 4% of its March 2009 low of $10.04, trading at $10.47 last night. As a stock fund, however, I would expect this fund to take a further beating in a real stock market correction, which we have not experienced in quite a long time. Overall we are today only 5% off the current highs by broad market measures. One should keep in mind that this fund had once fallen to nearly $5 back in 1998 just before the long gold bull began. So you could get sliced and diced by the falling knives to the tune of 50% in a coming correction if you invest in this fund at current prices. That said, revisiting the March 2009 low certainly would make this fund very tempting from the long term perspective, seeing that between March 2009 and the highs in 2011 the NAV increased over 180%. The fund has the potential to make you a lot of money (NAV+685% 1998-2007), or hand you your hat when it's done with you (NAV-75% 2007-2009). The NAV is down 63% since April 2011.

Theoretical Gold Investing Years Since 1980 Using Gold/Oil Ratio

Theoretically according to the gold/oil ratio, gold investing years might include any year when the gold/oil ratio dipped below 15, that is, when the price of oil was more expensive, making an ounce of gold "cheaper" than 15 barrels of oil, say 9 barrels instead of 15 as in 2005 and 2008:

1981  13.13

1982  11.91

1983  14.63

1984  13.11

1985  11.97

2000  10.19

2001  11.78 (gold $271.04/ounce, lowest average annual price for gold since 1980 to date)

2002  13.58

2003  13.12

2004  10.95

2005    8.91 (gold $444.74/ounce)

2006  10.35

2007  10.83

2008    9.53.

Not coincidentally, Vanguard launched both its energy fund, VGENX, and its precious metals fund, VGPMX, on May 23, 1984 when it was time to invest in gold and avoid oil. But if you had invested $10,000 in the energy fund that year, by May 31, 2008 you'd have in excess of $352,000. The precious metals fund did much less well, almost reaching $107,000 over the same period.

Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Down 50% 12/07 to 12/12