We had a lousy 4-day federal government shutdown and the Feds now need until Feb 11 to report jobs, but private payrolls came out today with a pathetic +22k

Just skipping along the surface of a lake like a stone headed under.

 

100% ground beef averaged a record $6.089 in year one of Trump 2.0, and hit a record high $6.687 in Dec 2025 to celebrate the New Golden Age for them, not for you

 Like many other such graphs, the graph for 100% Ground Beef won't show the 2025 average because the government shutdown meant no figure for October in the data.

The average $6.089 in 2025 is for eleven months without October, with October obviously a high figure, too, which means the annual average is no doubt higher than $6.089.

 

 

Mark Zandi: Missing data from October and November combined with tariffs means inflation is still probably higher than it appears, closer to 3% year over year rather than 2.6%

From the story here: 

... “The bottom line is, I think inflation is still uncomfortably high,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “Inflation for staples, necessities, remains elevated.” ... 

Tariffs levied by President Donald Trump have put upward pressure on the inflation rate, Zandi said. ...

“I think were it not for the tariffs, we would have been back to target already,” Zandi said. “But tariffs have pushed up inflation a little over half a [percentage] point.” ...

Overall, the headline inflation rate is higher than it appears on paper, Zandi said. The record-long government shutdown, which ran from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, prevented federal statisticians from collecting typical inflation data in October. Without that data, the BLS assumed that no price increases had taken place during the month for most categories of goods and services, Zandi said. Moody’s estimates the annual CPI inflation rate would be around 3% if that data were included, he said. ...

Overall CPI inflation, not seasonally adjusted, came in at 2.7% year over year in December 2025, while core CPI inflation was lower at 2.6% in today's report:

overall

core

 

Unbelievably rosy GDP report contained core pce inflation data at 2.9% countering previous rosy core cpi inflation report at 2.6% and indicating rising inflation

 U.S. economy grows by 4.3% in third quarter, much more than expected, delayed report shows

 

The U.S. economy grew at a much greater-than-expected pace in the third quarter, boosted by strong consumer spending, a delayed report released Tuesday showed.

U.S. gross domestic product, a sum of all goods and services produced in the sprawling U.S. economy, expanded by 4.3% in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its initial reading of third-quarter growth. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a gain of 3.2%.  ...

 

The economy moved forward during the period despite persistent signs of inflation pressures.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation gauge, rose 2.8% during the period, and 2.9% for core which excludes food and energy. Both were above prior respective readings of 2.1% and 2.6% and remain well above the Fed’s 2% inflation gauge. Also, the chain-weighted price index, which accounts for changes in consumer behavior such as switching to less expensive products for pricier items, rose 3.8%, a full percentage point above the forecast. ...

 As for the GDP report, even if you accept the rosy number as reported, it remains that . . .

Trump's real GDP since 2017 is growing at a compound annual rate which is 5% lower than the rate for 1984-2017; and

 

Trump's GDP since 2017 is growing at a compound annual rate 21% lower than the rate for 1947-2017.

 

Meanwhile GDP since 1984 is growing at a compound annual rate which is 28% lower than for 1947-1984.

 

And GDP since the Great Recession in 2007 is growing at a compound annual rate 42% lower than for 1947-2007.

 

The results of the era inaugurated by Reagan have been devastating. Real GDP today would be much higher had the previous long term trend continued.

 

3Q1984 Reagan real GDP of 8252.46 at the pre-Reagan rate of compound annual growth since 1947 would be 36213.94 today instead of 24024.95, 50% higher.

 

The Trump era is doubling down on stupid, not breaking with it. It is guaranteed to get us nowhere, faster.

The BLS report of CPI is missing too much data for both October and November to be a reliable estimate of inflation

 The 38-page pdf is full of tables with missing data like this " - ".

... CPI data collection resumed on November 14, 2025. ...

 

Trump says inflation has stopped in last night's speech, but what stopped was their collection of the inflation data

 Do you remember when COVID hit and Trump said we should just stop testing to make it go away?

Trump on coronavirus: ‘If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any’

 

So fast forward to today where we get another chart crime, this one for the consumer price index which omits the month of October, and another dose of skepticism about the Trump Regime's honesty about government data.

 

They warned us they would do this, too, even though during the first Trump Regime they collected both the employment and the inflation data during the 2018-2019 government shutdown.

 

This is all deliberate obfuscation. 

 

... Because the October CPI was canceled, Thursday’s report did not have all the usual data points of a typical CPI release. The BLS said it was unable to retroactively collect the October data, but did use some “nonsurvey data sources” to make the index calculations.

Economists may be hesitant to read too much into this report as the start of a downward trend in inflation because of the lack of October comparison data in the release. ...

More here. 

 

 

Speaking of not doing enough, the lazy bums in the Trump administration aren't producing October data because of their ridiculous government shutdown, giving us chart crimes like the one below . . .

 . . . in which full time employment falls 1.606 million from 135.708 million in September 2025 to 134.102 million in November 2025.

What a bunch of complete losers.

 

Trump's base is not happy: Strong disapproval of Trump hits new high 46% in Rasmussen Reports Poll, strong approval hits new low 27% for a second day

Trump's total disapproval score remains at a record high 55% for a second day.

His strong approval score is now a record low 27%, lower than his April 9th tariff low of 29%, his only sub-30 score until the last two weeks.

Trump has had a string of eleven sub-30 strong approval scores since November 11th.

Trump kicked off the period on November 11th stating that we needed H-1B workers because we didn't have enough talent in America. The longest federal government shutdown in history ended on Wednesday the 12th. Around the 15th he reversed his tariffs on coffee and other food items which had contributed to their record high prices in the first place. The same day brought the news that he had also stabbed Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia in the back over her criticism of the GOP's refusal to extend the Obamacare premium tax credits. The Epstein files saga came to a head on the 18th requiring their release, but will we ever see them? TikTok was supposed to be sold or shut down by act of Congress, too, and it has not been. On the 19th Trump was kissing the ass of the Saudi killer of Khashoggi, MBS, in the Oval Office. On the 20th Trump's secret 28-point plan with Russia to carve up Ukraine came to light. On the 22nd Democrats went on camera talking darkly about illegal orders being given to the military in the Caribbean. A National Guard soldier was executed on the streets of DC on the 26th by an Afghan refugee let into America by Biden but given residency by Trump. By the 29th we learned that survivors of a Trump drug boat attack in the Caribbean on September 2 were executed in a subsequent strike by the US military, which they obviously hoped no one would ever find out about. They spent the whole time since making up shit about this being a war justifying military engagement when everyone knows it's not a war and killing people for running drugs in the first place is wrong, otherwise the job we give the Coast Guard to do year in and year out has been simply a pointless exercise.

Trump's base is not happy. Pick your reason(s). 

 

 

COVID-19 in wastewater analysis is currently at a very low 1.48 nationally on Nov 15 but was just above 7 in early September, which is high

CDC is updating the chart again after the long government shutdown.

 

Trump hits new second term low -17 in Rasmussen Reports Trump Approval Index

It's been a story of a bad week just getting worse every day in this Trump-friendly poll.

People are in a foul mood in the aftermath of the government shutdown, which ended on Wednesday. 

But it could be a lot worse. 

Trump's all time low in this poll was -26 on 3 August 2017, after the U.S. Senate had just days earlier failed to overturn Obamacare and then recessed for August without one legislative accomplishment in Trump's first year in office to date.

Still, Democrats this week failed to get what they wanted from the shutdown on the Obamacare tax credits, which is a victory for Trump and should be showing up more positively in this poll, but it is not. 

Trump has been his own worst enemy this week, AGAIN!, defending H-1B visas because America doesn't have enough talent in his opinion, defending foreigners and especially Chinese taking up seats in America's college classrooms, gaslighting about consumer inflation coming down, and handing out bonus money like water to air traffic controllers and DHS employees who kept working during the shutdown.

But Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene, now on Trump's shit list, caused an uproar this week because she said the increases in Obamacare premiums in 2026 are going to wreak havoc on her constituents. Trump promptly kicked her off the plantation after she appeared on The View to talk about it.

Maybe the politics of Obamacare tax credits have flipped for the GOP rank and file and Trump and the Republican elites are going to be the last to know about it.  

 

House passes continuing spending resolution 222-209 and sends it to Trump who will sign the bill and end the longest federal government shutdown tonight

 House passes funding bill to end record-long government shutdown, Trump set to sign

Gang of eight Democrats in the U.S. Senate join Republicans to end the longest federal government shutdown in history

Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA)
Sen. Angus King (I-ME)
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV)
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH)
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)

... The Senate voted 60-40 to move forward on a House continuing resolution, which now carries a bipartisan compromise to fund veterans’ affairs, military construction, Congress, and agriculture through the end of the fiscal year, with the rest of the government funded through January 30. 

In return, Democrats have been promised a December floor vote on extending the expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits, though it is not guaranteed to pass. ...

More. 

How would a Democrat plant in the GOP act any differently from Donald John Trump?

 

At Rasmussen Reports Trump disapproval has been running at a record high 53% for five consecutive days

 See for yourself, here.

I reckon the government shutdown and the 60 Minutes interview in which Trump doubled down on many bogus claims aren't going over so well. 

These two pixies John J. Waters and Adam Ellwanger can't point to one thing which Democrats have achieved which Donald Trump has permanently reversed or topped

 ... By the time Obama secured his second term as president, the Democratic party (and the shadow groups that swim in its wake) had won the day on virtually every issue that mattered. This victory was largely due to their focus on doing and creating things rather than thinking about them. ...

Democrats owned the world of things and the real-world effects of their policies – however incoherent – were evident to all. An underlying premise of the Trump campaign was a return to things. To infrastructure. To clean streets and safe cities. To American-made products. And to historic landmarks and monuments that memorialize America’s greatness for future generations. Trump recognized that conservative ideas are meaningless until we rebuild the material conditions where they can be achieved. ...

More. 

 

There isn't one thing in the room with us right now, and there won't be.

We are three weeks into a government shutdown and Congressional Republicans are completely OK with these precious legislative days just thrown into the dumpster of history without accomplishing anything.

The US House isn't even in session, and hasn't been in session now but for 3 of the last 16 weeks, and this will likely extend to 17, 18, who knows how many weeks. Some people are predicting to Thanksgiving.

The GOP won't swear in Democrat Adelita Grijalva, elected on September 23rd, because they fear Republican Thomas Massie's Epstein gambit.

Donald Trump's GOP is a farce.

 

 

 

September 2025 CPI data are scheduled to be released on October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time instead of October 15 due to the government shutdown

 

Delusional Trump promised 9-cent electricity within 12 months and doubled electricity generating capacity "quickly" in Detroit in October 2024

We haven't seen 9-cent electricity since 2003 and aren't likely to ever again, and doubling generating capacity will take well into the 2040s, twenty more years. 

Piped utility gas costs 15% more on average than when he spoke, while the average price of gasoline is basically flat but falling.

We'll get updated data this week maybe, since despite the shutdown the administration is pledging to report the consumer price index figures.

But the main point is, Trump has no idea what he's talking about. 

 

The Department of the Treasury of the United States isn't supposed to be politicized like this

 

 

 

 

 

The BEA and BLS aren't like this.

In the absence of labor statistics because of the federal government shutdown, here's Initial Claims for Unemployment, not seasonally adjusted, for 48 states, DC, and Puerto Rico through 9/27/25

  The states continue to collect their data and it gets transmitted to FRED at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank for each state. You just have to hand-tally it since the Feds won't due to the shutdown.

My result for 9/27/25 for 48 states and DC and PR reported this morning: -2,229.

MA, AZ, and Virgin Islands initial claims reporting lags by a week. 

The largest downtick was in Texas at 3833.

The largest uptick was in Kentucky at 3049. 

Declining initial claims is good. 

Compare 9/20/25 at -14,822:

 

In the absence of labor statistics because of the federal government shutdown, here's Continued Claims for Unemployment, not seasonally adjusted, for 48 states, DC, and Puerto Rico through 9/20/25

 The states continue to collect their data and it gets transmitted to FRED at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank for each state. You just have to hand-tally it since the Feds won't due to the shutdown.

My result for 9/20 for 48 states and DC and PR reported this morning: -21,866.

MA, AZ, and Virgin Islands continued claims reporting lags by a week. 

Texas was down 4994, California 3562, Pennsylvania 2765, New Jersey 2351, New York 1439, Connecticut 1437, and Virginia 1275.

The largest uptick was in Michigan at 940, followed by Kentucky at 430.

Declining continuing claims is good. 

Compare 9/13/25 at -32,092: