There is no labor shortage when many millions sit idle along with 24% of the economy

 CNN, so predictable:

The US needs to find ways to raise the number of workers through larger and more economically motivated immigration policies . . ..

49.35% worked full time in Nov 2021, a new high for the year, vs. 50.52% two years ago at this time: Millions could be working who are not

That works out to 3.1 million missing full time jobs in Nov 2021 compared to Nov 2019 at current population.

We went from adding 1.7 million W-2s in 2019 to subtracting 1.7 million in 2020, a gap of 3.4 million.

Overall in 2021 to date full time has averaged 48.55% of civilian noninstitutional population, still much below the 50.4% average level in 2019.

Potential missing full time is at least 11.1 million at current population level.

The good times get smaller and smaller and smaller in the rear view mirror.

 

Civilian employment under Biden in October 2021 is at about the same level it was four years ago under Trump

How long will it take to recover? Seven years like it did under Obama-Biden?

Let's hope not.

The current trajectory looks like civilian employment will recover round about March 2023, a little more than three years after the Feb 2020 peak. That is slightly longer than the typical 2-3 years during recessions.

Foolish energy and vaccine policies could interfere with that, however.

This negative jobs growth trend should have everyone up in arms, but instead we shrug, retreat, and self-medicate

 What has any politician done for you and your kids in 20 years?

Full-time as a percent of population peaked in July at 49.28% and averages 48.47% for the first 10 months of 2021

 Still way off the (lousy) Trump peak of 50.4% in 2019.

 

By the way, there was no fresh kale, or broccoli crowns, at the grocery store yesterday

Frozen green beans again tonight. 

This shortage business is really weird.

I'm thinking it's not a shortage of product but of help. The store manager was actually working the produce section, spreading out the cabbages where what I was looking for went so that the shelves didn't look so barren.

Checkout was handled by another store manager, who complained "no one wants to work on weekends".

Full time jobs as a percentage of population now average 48.3% through August 2021

 Full time as a percentage of population rose to 49.18 in August after peaking in July, as is typical, at 49.28.

The measure ebbs after summer and flows in the spring, mirrored by a peak oscillation in usually part-time employment in the winter, which is a much smaller part of the population, historically averaging 27+ million in the years before the latest catastrophe.

The 48.3% average to date in 2021 is one full point ahead of the average for 2020 at 47.3%, but remains far off the 2019 average at 50.4%, which itself hardly represented a return to what was normal before the Great Financial Crisis.

Full time work never recovered after GFC I, which exposed the hollowed out character of the US economy after decades of out-sourcing, off-shoring, and mass low-wage immigration.

 

It is now common to blame the invention of the cotton gin, a labor-saving device, for the increase in the US slave population

Can anything good come out of Oregon?

This garbage from a Professor of Women, Gender, and Sexuality Studies, Oregon State University, is anti-white anti-capitalism rearing its ugly head, not "historical scholarship". It's what Oswald Spengler warned us about in 1934.

Infighting in the Southern Baptist Convention shouldn’t be a surprise – the denomination has been defined by such squabbles for 400 years :

 

In the U.S., Baptists formed a national organization, the Triennial Convention, in 1814. Around the same time, attitudes of Baptists in the South toward the enslavement of Africans began to harden as the 1792 invention of the cotton gin, a machine that made it easier to separate the cotton fibers from their seeds, made enslavement more profitable. By the 1830s, abolitionism took firm hold among Northern Baptists, and both they and Baptists in the South argued they were upholding Scripture through their views on slavery.

 

Blaming the cotton gin for an increase of enslavement appears to be a new, and stupid, argument of the anti-white-anti-capitalist industry, advanced since about 2009, in tandem with the advent of the Obama era when hostility to capitalism began to become more widely racialized, along with everything else.

 

The claim, as per the Wikipedia article on the cotton gin, is that "The number of slaves rose in concert with the increase in cotton production, increasing from around 700,000 in 1790 to around 3.2 million in 1850".

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But the cotton production figures cited don't match the population "production" facts:

 

"Cotton production expanded from 750,000 bales in 1830 to 2.85 million bales in 1850." You are led to believe with this sleight of hand that slave population was dramatically increased by 2.5 million (357%) to accomplish that 280% production increase in cotton.

 

That isn't the case.

 

From 1830 to 1850 slave population increased by 1.2 million, from 2 million to 3.2 million, or 60%, not 357% obviously. Automation meant fewer slaves were needed, not more. The increase in slave population over the period has nothing to do with the invention of the cotton gin. 

 

Importation of slaves to the US had been halted from 1808 by act of Congress. By 1850 fewer than 305,000 had been brought to America. Slave population increased in the US naturally through reproduction over the period, by 60%, in contrast with the free population which increased in the US by about 84% (from 10.85 million to 19.99 million) through both reproduction and immigration between 1830-1850.

 

You can't even make the argument that slaves were bred to serve, however aspirational that might have been for a very small minority of white race schemers of the plantation enterprise. The data shows whatever the intentions were, they didn't succeed, and slave population increased at a rate lower than the free population.

 

You could make the argument that the invention of the cotton gin enabled slave owners to get by much longer with fewer slave laborers*, some of whom enjoyed better working conditions as a result, thus perpetuating the economics of slavery in a situation where increased supply of that labor had been cut off, but that's not the argument they are making. They aren't smart enough to make it.

 

 

*Cotton production per slave increased from 188 pounds in 1830 to 445 pounds in 1850.

America continues in decline, undershooting its potential by 13 million full-time jobs

Full-time employment in June 2021 in the US, not seasonally adjusted, was 48.7% of civilian noninstitutional population. The average level had been 50.4% in 2019, historically anemic. That's a deficit of 4.6 million full-time jobs in June 2021 compared with the 2019 average.

 

If you can imagine full-time employment at 53.6% of civilian noninstitutional population as in the year 2000, you are talking about 140 million with full-time jobs today instead of the actual 127 million. America continues in decline undershooting its potential by 13 million full-time.

 

Sad!

 

 

48.7% June 2021

That '70s Show: At 412k last week, jobless claims are so 1975-ish

 

Mark Levin is so pathetic: He can characterize what went on in America's streets last year as an insurrection when millions rioted . . .

. . . and yet he still insists on the principle of non-violence from the people to put it down. We should just sit there and take it, watch our cities, businesses and homes burn down while the government does NOTHING.

I don't expect normie conservatism EVER to advocate watering the tree of liberty with the blood of tyrants and their mobs.

This is because normie conservatism is really just Republicanism. Its roots do not go back further than Lincoln and his "project" for racial equality, which was in truth nothing but a demagogue's ploy to keep from losing a war. And because of this it has disarmed itself for every other political conflict except for the cause of racial equality. For THAT they will gladly destroy the country and see it destroyed, but otherwise won't lift a finger when BLM and Antifa come knocking.

This is why Republicanism failed to stop the income tax and women's suffrage, Social Security and the welfare state, abortion and gay marriage, and a whole host of other things large and small they said they were against over the years but on which they eventually caved, and then eventually championed. It's the reason "conservatism" has failed, because Republicans aren't conservatives. They are, according to their own lights, simply better versions of Democrats.

For this reason Republicanism can never be about the American Founding, protest to the contrary as it may, boast otherwise as it may. Lincoln destroyed the Founding and redefined the country, by force of arms!, and Republicans are stuck with it, and we with them, unless someone can recover the original spirit of liberty. And Democrats exist to never let them forget it, to make them live by their new principles which only tie their hands and guarantee their ongoing defeat.

Meanwhile, don't look for the Founding spirit from Noon to 3 let alone from 6 to 9. Instead look for more of the same game played by Rush Limbaugh, the "they're the real racists" game.

Race, race, race. Black unemployment was never lower than under Trump.  Hunter Biden said the n-word and the fag-word and gets away with it. Blah, blah, blah, as your kid can't find a decent job to start his own life.

 

Biden can crow all he wants about "creating" jobs: The deficit in full-time compared with the 2019 average is still 5.1 million in May; just getting back to where we were before this debacle occurred will take years

 May 2021 full-time jobs: 48.5% of population

Average 2019: 50.4%

Missing full-time compared to 2019: 5.1 million

 

 

Federal extended unemployment pandemic payments are scheduled to end in early September, coinciding with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan

 Or is it the other way around?

In any event, the Taliban is already taking control of the Afghan countryside while the US Taliban of Commerce is celebrating victory here at home.

Mark Krikorian hits on the sorry truth about Trump and Elise Stefanik

MAGAworld pans Stefanik :

...

“She ties with a couple other Republicans for the worst career voting record on immigration in New York,” said Mark Krikorian, director of the anti-immigration Center on Immigration Studies, ticking off a few of her previous positions: a yes on H-2B visas, the Farm Workers Modernization Act, and the Hong Kong Refugee bill, and a no on Trump’s child border separation policies.

“Obviously, Republicans in New York are likely to be more liberal, just because that's the environment they're in,” Krikorian said. “I think everybody understands that. But even by the standards of New York state Republicans, she's bad on immigration.” ...

Krikorian, whose institute is not weighing in on the conference chair election, noted that while Cheney’s downfall was sparked by her criticism of Trump, what had truly tanked her was her ideology, bolstered by her family name: The Wyoming congresswoman’s neoconservative beliefs have no place in today’s GOP.

Stefanik’s positions weren’t much more palatable to the party base, in Krikorian’s view.

“Trump, in his gut, does think we should get out of Afghanistan, he does think there's too many illegal aliens coming over the border,” he observed. “It's not that he doesn't believe any of that stuff. It's just that he's kind of a narcissistic guy. And if people flatter him, he's for them, regardless of what they believe. And so the question is: Do you go for Trumpism? Or do you go for Trump?” 

The system which protects us from tyrants has done so only because we are, when all is said and done, still loyal to it. There was never any danger of a tyranny from Trump, who was easily the weakest president in living memory.

But Trump's character is clearly of the sort Aristotle warned us about. The thing is, we do little worrying about the proliferation of wretches like Stefanik who eventually make the rise of actual tyrants, dangerous men of strong, determined, and ruthless character, more likely.

"And for this reason tyrants always love the worst of wretches, for they rejoice in being flattered, which no man of a liberal spirit will submit to; for they love the virtuous, but flatter none."

Full-time employment as a percentage of civilian population climbed to 48.1% in April 2021

It's a long way from 2019, let alone from the Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Bush era.

If 50.4% had a full-time job in April 2021, 6 million more people would be working full-time than do.

 

Full-time employment in the US in February 2021 continues to SUCK

47.5% of the civilian US non-institutional population had full-time jobs in February 2021. The average level in 2020 was 47.3%.

Missing full-time in February relative to the 2019 average of 50.4% is 7.5 million.

Relative to the all-time high in 2000 at 53.6%, missing full-time is a whopping 15.87 million.

In January 2021 just 47.4% of the civilian population had full-time jobs, compared with 2020's average of 47.3%

Biden reportedly said in response to the employment situation summary today:

"At that rate it's going to take ten years to get back to full employment. That's not hyperbole that's a fact."

The fact is employment has never recovered to pre-Great Recession levels, and Biden is as little likely to fix that as were Obama and Trump.

The Reagan era tax reforms hollowed out the labor economy. 

Before Reagan, high marginal tax rates on ordinary income steered that income into capital investment, gains from which received preferential tax treatment if held long enough. The investment grew the economy, providing good jobs for Americans and tax revenues for government at all levels. The arrangement distrusted rich people to do the right thing with their money, but rewarded them if they did.

Reagan libertarianism changed all that.

We were sold the idea that lower taxes on high ordinary incomes would still result in capital investment because we could trust people to do the right thing with their own money.

Guess what? Libertarian trust of human nature turned out to be as false as liberal trust of human nature. 

Under the influence of libertarian free trade dogma and growing globalization, that investment went abroad where there was far cheaper labor, lower taxes and less regulation. Profits soared for the few, bringing the number of billionaires from less than fifty in the 1980s to nearly 800 today. Meanwhile the good jobs gradually disappeared and income inequality soared.

Ordinary people today cannot afford cars, educations, health care, and houses as a result.

Add in cheap labor competition from immigration at a clip of 1 million a year and you can understand how Trump was so popular, however incompetent and narcissistic he was.

Trump may be gone, but the people remain screwed by these problems and by the time serving politicians and 2.8 million federal bureaucrats working for pensions who stand in the way.

Returning to the status quo ante might fix it, but it would take a generation to start feeling it. And who among us has the vision and the cojones to pull it off?

Certainly not the women and snowflakes who cry crocodile tears of fear on the House floor. Certainly not the sailors on board the Chafee who are in a panic because the cooks are infected with COVID.

The country is rotting from the inside out. All it will take to bring it down is . . . a series of unfortunate events.

In past hits to full-time employment in the early 1990s, after 2000 and 2007, part-time usually soared, but it tanked in 2020 right along with full-time

 

2020 was a disaster for full-time employment, wiping out eight years of progress, however anemic those were: 13 million full-time potential missing on average relative to 2006 peak at 52.3%

 

It took Reagan/Bush just six years to reach 52% after the early 1980s recessions, still unparalleled