The 2015 El Nino to date in perspective

Using the Oceanic Nino Index here the strong to very strong El Ninos of the past can be summarized like this, showing the 2015 El Nino to be so far most like 1972-73:

1957-58, 16 consecutive months, 1.0 average severity

1965-66, 11 consecutive months, 1.2 average severity

1972-73, 12 consecutive months, 1.2 average severity (One 3-month mean reading at 2.0)

1982-83, 15 consecutive months, 1.3 average severity (Three consecutive 3-month mean readings averaging 2.1)

1997-98, 13 consecutive months, 1.6 average severity (Five consecutive 3-month mean readings averaging 2.2)

2015 to date, 8 consecutive months, 1.2 average severity (One 3-month mean reading at 2.0).

At this hour in Grand Rapids we have 38 degrees F and no snow whatsoever.

Conrad Black defends Donald Trump against the hysterics, and tells you what he's for

Here:

"What Donald actually advocates is the deportation of 351,000 illegal immigrants convicted of crimes and now imprisoned; the end of illegal immigration by building an Israeli-like wall along the Mexican border; an (as yet unspecified) screening process to justify the deportation of some of the illegals and the normalization of the others; and although he advocates the suspension already mentioned of Muslim immigration (not the Christians who are almost half of the refugees), he at least acknowledges that the United States is partly responsible for the political chaos that generated this humanitarian tragedy in the first place. He wants only a small increase in defence spending, reallocated to more effective anti-terrorism; and universal health care through health savings accounts and by smashing the insurance cartel. He is for the gradual legalization of most drugs; is a militant anti-polluter, but correctly (on present evidence) regards climate change and cap-and-trade as hoaxes. He wants to leave education (and same-sex marriage) to the states and to give them the money now wasted in the federal Department of Education. He would ban only late-term abortions, and not when there were overriding circumstances. He would reform the corrupt shambles of campaign financing by abolishing super-PACs and soft money, and lift limits on individual contributions to political candidates. He is a moderate protectionist opposite cheap labour countries, and advocates marginal income tax reductions and the reconstitution of the bloated national debt as a sinking fund to be gradually reduced by spending restraint, implicitly involving an imprecise level of entitlement-reform. Trump opposes foreign intervention in areas where the U.S. has no natural interest, including Ukraine and Syria, but wants a redefinition of the national security interest of the country, and wants to protect that interest, unlike Obama, but not over-extend it, unlike George W. Bush. This is not a radical program."

World leaders agree to totally toothless climate accord

Story here.

Coal for Christmas everybody!

Drudge reports Quentin Letts "removed" from BBC radio when only one of his broadcasts was

Like Rush Limbaugh, Drudge often reads only the (often intentionally misleading) headline and extrapolates from there.

QUENTIN LETTS: How I was vaporised by the BBC's Green Gestapo after daring to mock the Met Office and global warming By QUENTIN LETTS FOR THE DAILY MAIL

Letts wasn't "removed", one of his broadcasts was. Tabloid journalism all around, not journalism.

So far the El Nino has wiped out 48% of the Grands Rapids Michigan 2015 cumulative average negative temperature anomaly

The Grand Rapids Michigan November average temperature anomaly was a whopping +5.4 degrees F.

The cumulative anomaly for 2015 thus declines from -17.1 to -11.7 degrees F.

The El Nino so far has wiped out 10.9 degrees F of negative anomaly in September, October and November alone after seven of eight months of below normal temperatures which had taken the cumulative anomaly to -22.6 degrees F through August.

Snowfall in November was 51% of normal at just 3.5 inches.

Precipitation was 74% of normal at 2.61 inches.

Muslim terrorists kill 129 in Paris, climate kills 0

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/global-warming/Despite-attacks-Paris-climate-summit-remains-on-course/articleshow/49787660.cms

Judith Curry: The hottest topic in climate research is little or no warming in the 21st century

US average surface temperature has shown a slight cooling trend in the 21st century

Judith Curry, Georgia Institute of Technology, quoted here:

"The hottest topic in climate research is the observation that global average surface temperature, as well as satellite observations of temperatures in the atmosphere, has shown little or no warming during the 21st century." 

Hysterical French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warns of planetary catastrophe from global warming: "life on planet at stake"

WaPo Gen Xer drinks climate Kool-Aid, attacks Baby Boomers for causing global warming and running up the $18 trillion debt

spotted headed to Mt. Rushmore

Here:

"Boomers soaked up a lot of economic opportunity without bothering to preserve much for the generations to come. They burned a lot of cheap fossil fuels, filled the atmosphere with heat-trapping gases, and will probably never pay the costs of averting catastrophic climate change or helping their grandchildren adapt to a warmer world. They took control of Washington at the turn of the millennium, and they used it to rack up a lot of federal debt, even before the Great Recession hit."

Substitute "liberals" everytime you see "boomers" in the essay and it makes a lot more sense than attacking your parents per se. Instead the author prefers to commit Maoism in "Baby boomers are what’s wrong with America’s economy". 

Meanwhile, exporting good jobs and importing cheap labor were artifacts of the 1960s revolution, advanced by people who were fellow travelers under FDR. The height of the baby boom generation was what, aged 10 in 1967? 

In the end, Jim Tankersley can't add and subtract, but what his father gave him for Christmas in 2012 for his patricidal thesis says it all:

"After I first outlined this argument to my father in 2012, he gifted me an actual lump of coal for Christmas."

Well done, Dad! The earth remains full of coal, especially American earth, ensuring energy independence as far as the eye can see, as well as oil and natural gas and . . . thorium! If only we'll use it. 

It makes more sense to rely on these going forward because they remain so plentiful, employing technologies to make them harmless to human health, invented by smart people from every generation.

But if a Maunder Minimum ensues in 2030, we might not care as much about the health as the warmth.

Raw temperature data have all been changed, 20% of it 16 times in the last 2.5 years

So says Marcia Glaze Wyatt here:

"Raw data is adjusted, sometimes justifiably (yet still injecting uncertainty), yet sometimes, arguably not justifiably, adding more uncertainty!!! Raw data have all been changed – 20% of it changed 16 times in the last 2 and a half years. This plot shows NOT the average surface T trend between 1880 and 2010, but rather the trend of changes made in the temperature anomalies (1880 to 2010) between May 2008 and May 2015. Take the month of January for comparison b/n 1915 and 2000. In May of 2008, the difference b/n January temperature anomalies for those years was 0.39oC. As of May 2015 note, the difference is 0.52oC (almost a degree F). ... And while one assumes that good intentions motivate the adjustments, one thing is obvious: temperatures adjustments prior to 1950 have resulted in a substantial cooling of the early century (20th) and adjustments made after 1950 have substantially warmed the record; consequently, the trend of temperature increase has significantly steepened over the years – a product of data changes. Is this an accurate reflection of reality? Uncertainty..."

Just 2 extreme heat events in Grand Rapids in the last 50 years, but 14 in the 70 years before that

An El Nino forecast for winter in Grand Rapids Michigan July 2015 - June 2016

Mean snowfall 66.7, predicting 47.85 inches

Mean heating degree days 6719, predicting 6148

Grand Rapids Michigan was warmer on average in October 2015 by 1.1 degrees F

The cumulative anomaly for 2015 thus declines from -18.2 to -17.1 degrees F.

That's now two months in a row with above average temperatures, helping to erase the big negative anomaly built up in the winter, and in February in particular.

Summer temperatures in GR in 2015 were below normal, so the warmer September and now October have offset that. A late or extended summer, you might say.

The cumulative anomaly in 2014 was -30.3 degrees F, and would have been even worse if not for a warm and snowless December. November set snow records here with 31 inches and the negative temperature anomaly reached -33 degrees F.

The peak negative anomaly in 2015 so far has been -22.6 degrees F through August.

The New York Times criticizes Republican tax plans, pretending revenues are needed to cover spending

Here:

"All of these candidates deny fiscal reality. In the next 10 years, revenues will need to increase by 40 percent simply to keep federal spending even, per capita, with inflation and population growth. Additional revenues will be needed to pay for health care for the elderly, transportation systems and other obligations, as well as for newer challenges, including climate change. And interest on the national debt will surely rise because interest rates have nowhere to go but up."

Who is the Times trying to kid?

Revenues have never been needed to cover expenditures and they know it, and rarely have covered expenditures. Expenditures will continue to grow whether the Times or the Republicans like it or not. They are baked into the cake of the legislation that drives them. The only way to fix that is to rescind the legislation or modify it, with its built-in cost of living increases and added population coverage assumptions.

This country has run minor annual surpluses in just twelve years since 1939, doing nothing but slowing down our present arrival at $18.2 trillion in debt.

Spare us the histrionics.

The heavy hitters when it comes to spending are:

• HHS ($1 trillion, 91% of which is Medicare and Medicaid)
• Social Security ($.96 trillion)
• Defense ($.59 trillion, protecting the world without reimbursement)
• Treasury Dept. ($.57 trillion, $.4 trillion of which is interest on the debt overspending)
• Veterans ($.16 trillion, which does such a good job veterans die waiting for appointments)
• Agriculture ($.14 trillion, over half of which is the food stamp program).

Together those six account for 88% of federal spending, and the Times dares the Republicans even to think about reforming Social Security and Medicare, calling instead for higher taxes.

Meanwhile there's plenty else to cut just by axing all the other departments which account for the remaining $.48 trillion making up the 2015 fiscal outlay total of $3.9 trillion.

Let's start with the Education Dept., $76 billion, then International Assistance Programs, $22 billion.

Ka-ching! Ka-ching! You're 20% of the way there, just like that.

See how easy that was?

It's not just the satellite data showing a pause in global warming

The land record kept by NOAA does too. The decadal trend is actually slightly negative since January 1997: -0.19 degrees F per decade.

The warming models predict neither a pause let alone such a decline.

It's significantly warmer in Michigan, but it's nothing to get hysterical about

This graphic from Climate Central showing Michigan annual average temperature increasing 0.622 degrees F per decade 1970-2011 is pretty amazing.

I went to NCDC's Climate at a Glance page and reproduced that same result for myself just to verify it (0.6 degrees F per decade).

But one has to ask, Why confine results to 1970-2011 (the terminus ad quem for the study, published in 2012, was 2011) when you can easily go back to 1895 and get a per decade trend result for a much larger sample?

The change in average temperature on a per decade basis for the whole available sample period 1895-2014 produces 0.2 degrees F per decade in Michigan, three times less per decade than for 1970-2011 alone. The result is identical also through 2011. Despite the significant warming since the year 2000, the long term trend remains unmoved and the current period of warming may actually have run out of gas.

Michigan average temperature is increasing 0.2 degrees F per decade 1895-2014

I thought it would be interesting to use the length of the sample period in question (42 years) and go back to the beginning of the record in 1898 and look at each 42 year period from then going forward to 1973 (which takes you through 2014) to see if there are any periods of decadal warming trend comparable to +0.6 degrees F per decade in 1970-2011. I chose 1898 to avoid some gaps in the record in some places in prior years in Michigan.

The results are graphed below.

It turns out there are five 42-year periods showing temperature trend of +0.5 degrees F per decade on the left side of the graph, beginning in 1903, 1912, 1914, 1915 and 1916. (Students of the Dust Bowl beginning in 1930, take note, as also those studying economics. Weak GDP of the era may be associated with warmer climate, as it also seems to be now.)

These correspond to six 42-year periods showing temperature trend of +0.5 degrees F per decade on the right side of the graph, beginning in 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964 and 1973.

If that were all that were to it, there would be no discussion of global warming today, despite the consecutive nature of the recent examples. The two data sets are almost a wash.

What is remarkable about the more recent data is the presence of four 42-year periods of +0.6 degrees F decadal trend (beginning in 1967, 1968, 1969 and 1970), and four of +0.7 degrees F (beginning in 1965, 1966, 1971 and 1972), all in conjunction with the +0.5 degrees F periods. It's a trifecta of warming data.

Still, overall the results show that there are two distinct periods where the decadal trend is consistently +0.2 degrees F or above: the 27 years from 1898 to 1924, and the 20 years from 1954 to 1973. In the former the average of the decadal uptrend is +0.3555 degrees F per decade. In the latter the average of the decadal uptrend is +0.4950 degrees F per decade. Clearly the latter period, contemporary with us, is significantly warmer than the former, by 39%, about which some of us have become hysterical.

The antidote to this is the trough of downtrend years in the middle of the graph which coincides with the period of the global cooling hysteria of the late 1960s and 1970s. The 42-year trend record went negative for 1928-1969 and stayed negative to flat until the period 1946-1987, nineteen years straight, twenty if you count the flat period 1927-1968. Year after year, the 42-year trends ended -.1 degrees F decadal trend or -.2. Many climate scientists predicted the return of an ice age while unbeknowst to them the seeds of a warming era were already germinating.

The record shows how quickly things can turn, for example 0.5 degrees F in trend in just seven years from 1923 to 1930, from above trend on net to well below it.

The decadal trend fell by a whopping 50% between 1917-1958 and 1918-1959, from +0.4 degrees F to +0.2.

More recently the decadal trend fell by 28.5% between 1972-2013 and 1973-2014, from +0.7 degrees F to +0.5. (It's entirely within the realm of possibility that decadal trend could revert to normal by the close of 2017.)

There was just one similar abrupt change to the upside. Between 1964-2005 and 1965-2006 the decadal trend shot up 40% from +0.5 degrees F to +0.7.

Otherwise the record shows incremental change in the trend from year to year, 0.1 degree F up or down at the most.

Don't be surprised when you see it.

Grand Rapids, Michigan, September 2015 average temperature anomaly: +4.4 degrees F

September 2015 was 4.4 degrees ABOVE normal on average in Grand Rapids, Michigan, dropping the cumulative anomaly for the year to -18.2 degrees F from -22.6 degrees F through August.

It was a beautiful, warm, dry and very sunny September. Rainful was 2.02 inches below normal at 2.26 inches.

Tony Heller corrects Jonah Goldberg about September warming

Here.

Ben Carson's church believes carbon dioxide is a pollutant causing climate change and should be reduced

Here:

"To keep climate change within bearable limits, the emissions of greenhouse gasses, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), need to be significantly reduced. Industrialized countries are the main source of these emissions, while the first victims are the small island states and low-lying coastal countries."

Warming over 100 years from 1990 predicted by IPCC is falling short by 62% due to 18 year, 8 month pause

Reported here:

"From January 1979 to August 2015, the trend was just 1.21 K/century.

"In 1990, the IPCC had predicted near-straight-line warming of 1 K to 2025, equivalent to almost 2.8 K/century. Of this warming, more than 0.7 K should have happened by now, but only 0.26 K has actually occurred. ...

"The UAH and RSS satellite data both show the Pause, though the terrestrial tamperature datasets have all been altered in the past year with the effect of concealing it."