Saturday, July 26, 2025

The S&P 500 had five record closes in a row this week, and fourteen so far this year, for what it's worth

The S&P 500 averaged 6,029.95 in June. 

Using 1Q2025 GDP, current valuation of SPX 6,388.64 is 213, 163% higher than the 1938-2019 mean of 81.

Full year valuations around 213 were last seen in 1928-1930: 204, 248, and 228.

Real return since August 2000 through June 2025, two months shy of 25-years, is now up to 5.08% per annum vs. 10.75% per annum October 1975 through August 2000.

The mouse that roared.