Kpler declares Middle East crude oil exports excluding Iran recovered to pre-war levels, at at least 16.5 mbpd in September

The transit mechanisms have changed dramatically as Iran has perpetrated 123 vessel incidents since March 1 to date. Vessels run dark turning off AIS, vessels conduct in-theatre ship-to-ship transfers, U.S. naval forces provide protected escorts, and states increasingly by-pass Strait of Hormuz by using pipelines. 

Kpler data shows crude exports from the Persian Gulf recovering to about 80% of pre-war, but not refined products which are still down 81%

The U.S. facilitated transits cost the U.S. taxpayer about half a billion dollars every month. 

 Oil exports through Strait of Hormuz hit prewar levels, but fuel shipments are constrained

... The world faces a global fuel crisis as supplies from the Middle East are constrained and Ukraine pounds Russian refineries. Refined products shipped through Hormuz are at a seven-day average of 677,000 bpd as of Monday compared to 3.6 million bpd before the war, according to Kpler.

Crude and product shipments together stood at a seven-day average of 14.2 million bpd which is about 80% of the Hormuz prewar baseline of about 17 million bpd, the data showed.

... more than 70% of the crude oil that crossed Hormuz in August switched tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates or Oman, according to Kpler. Shuttle tankers bring oil through Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman. The cargo is then loaded onto another tanker that delivers it to Asia.

This shuttle system is protected by the U.S. military and reduces the risk of exposure to attack from Iran. But it is unclear how long this system can be sustained given that it relies on U.S. military protection.

“It’s very expensive and it’s a huge U.S. military commitment,” Croft said.

And the Gulf states don’t view the “patchwork arrangement” of ship-to-ship transfers and military escorts as an acceptable substitute for Hormuz being open, she said.

Pipelines operated by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also doing a lot of heavy lifting. About 40% of Gulf crude oil now bypasses Hormuz through these pipelines compared to 17% before the war, per Kpler. ...

UKMTO JMIC Advisory Note Update 097 rolls out a new graph of U.S. facilitated transits of the Strait of Hormuz

 Update 097 JMIC Advisory Note 17 September

They are still working out the kinks. At the bottom "Bab-el-Mandeb Transits Last 90 Days" goes on the graph following.

Evidently one has to add the orange trend line and the red line to approximate the true picture of transits, but the red line does not indicate it is a total 7 day rolling average like the orange line.

Remember this is total transits, too, not just tankers. 

A unique and confusing situation to say the least.