Core cpi inflation remains too high in Sep 2026 at 2.5% yoy in 3Q2026 and 2.6% yoy in Sep 2026, but no one can deny that the trend for the rate increases is down since Trump was elected in 2024

Tariffs and war remain the forces blunting what could have otherwise been much better results in the fight against inflation, and those were by choice not by accident.

 

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There are certain things one just should not be buying at certain times

In April 2020 the 30Y was paying just 1.27% on average (tonight it pays 5.56%).

Core CPI inflation was 1.43% yoy in April 2020.

Silver was $15. It's now up 307%.

Gold was $1,700. It's up 144%.

WTI averaged $16.55. It's up 480%.

SPX averaged 2,762. It's up 179%.

The median sales price of a new home is up 30%. 

Imagine needing to sell a 6-year old 30Y you bought in a flight to safety during the pandemic panic and booking a loss of 57%. 

 

America is based on guns because it's also based on robbery

I mean, we stole the colonies from the king . . . in the second place amirite?

Before that we were stealing his masts. 

With no king to rob anymore, we instead rob ourselves.

 

To be a 1913 millionaire in July 2026, you'll need 33.73 of them, and a high capacity magazine.

 

July 2026 cpi inflation 3.4%

July 2026 core cpi inflation 2.5%

The core cpi inflation rate in June 2026 was elevated 32% over Trump's average rate in his first term

Core cpi inflation in June 2026 fell to 2.59% year over year, but rose to 2.73% for the second quarter. 

For the first half of 2026 core cpi inflation fell to 2.62%.

The measure averaged 1.96% annually in Trump's first term.

 

June 2026

2Q2026

1H2026

 

Overall consumer price index inflation came in at 3.8% yoy in April 2026, core cpi at 2.8% yoy

The overall rate of inflation in April 2026 at 3.8% yoy is 100% higher than the average rate of 1.9% yoy under Trump I.

The core rate in April 2026 at 2.75% yoy is 40% higher than the average rate of 1.965% yoy under Trump I.

Food inflation was 3.2% yoy in April 2026, but energy inflation was 17.53% yoy in April on top of 12.58% yoy in March.

The energy inflation is a self-inflicted wound by Donald Trump. It's almost like he thrills at the prospect of defeat. 

 

Relentless inflation is so boring: Core cpi inflation in Mar 2026 clocked in at 2.6% yoy, 1Q2026 at 2.5% was last this high in 2008 outside the COVID-19 eruption

 

Core cpi inflation still 2.45% year over year not seasonally adjusted, down from 2.50% yoy last month, Assembly of Experts expects higher next month

A little Iran humor for ya there. 

 Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in February, as expected

... The data predates the recent surge in oil prices tied to the war with Iran, meaning any impact from higher energy costs will likely show up in the months ahead. ...

Outside the pandemic, we were last higher than this in Sep 2008.

 

Core cpi inflation falls to 2.5% year over year in Jan 2026, still 39% elevated above the 1.8% average rate which prevailed for twelve years 2009-2020

The average yoy rate for eleven months of 2025 was 2.91%.

  

Mark Zandi: Missing data from October and November combined with tariffs means inflation is still probably higher than it appears, closer to 3% year over year rather than 2.6%

From the story here: 

... “The bottom line is, I think inflation is still uncomfortably high,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “Inflation for staples, necessities, remains elevated.” ... 

Tariffs levied by President Donald Trump have put upward pressure on the inflation rate, Zandi said. ...

“I think were it not for the tariffs, we would have been back to target already,” Zandi said. “But tariffs have pushed up inflation a little over half a [percentage] point.” ...

Overall, the headline inflation rate is higher than it appears on paper, Zandi said. The record-long government shutdown, which ran from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, prevented federal statisticians from collecting typical inflation data in October. Without that data, the BLS assumed that no price increases had taken place during the month for most categories of goods and services, Zandi said. Moody’s estimates the annual CPI inflation rate would be around 3% if that data were included, he said. ...

Overall CPI inflation, not seasonally adjusted, came in at 2.7% year over year in December 2025, while core CPI inflation was lower at 2.6% in today's report:

overall

core

 

Unbelievably rosy GDP report contained core pce inflation data at 2.9% countering previous rosy core cpi inflation report at 2.6% and indicating rising inflation

 U.S. economy grows by 4.3% in third quarter, much more than expected, delayed report shows

 

The U.S. economy grew at a much greater-than-expected pace in the third quarter, boosted by strong consumer spending, a delayed report released Tuesday showed.

U.S. gross domestic product, a sum of all goods and services produced in the sprawling U.S. economy, expanded by 4.3% in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its initial reading of third-quarter growth. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a gain of 3.2%.  ...

 

The economy moved forward during the period despite persistent signs of inflation pressures.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation gauge, rose 2.8% during the period, and 2.9% for core which excludes food and energy. Both were above prior respective readings of 2.1% and 2.6% and remain well above the Fed’s 2% inflation gauge. Also, the chain-weighted price index, which accounts for changes in consumer behavior such as switching to less expensive products for pricier items, rose 3.8%, a full percentage point above the forecast. ...

 As for the GDP report, even if you accept the rosy number as reported, it remains that . . .

Trump's real GDP since 2017 is growing at a compound annual rate which is 5% lower than the rate for 1984-2017; and

 

Trump's GDP since 2017 is growing at a compound annual rate 21% lower than the rate for 1947-2017.

 

Meanwhile GDP since 1984 is growing at a compound annual rate which is 28% lower than for 1947-1984.

 

And GDP since the Great Recession in 2007 is growing at a compound annual rate 42% lower than for 1947-2007.

 

The results of the era inaugurated by Reagan have been devastating. Real GDP today would be much higher had the previous long term trend continued.

 

3Q1984 Reagan real GDP of 8252.46 at the pre-Reagan rate of compound annual growth since 1947 would be 36213.94 today instead of 24024.95, 50% higher.

 

The Trump era is doubling down on stupid, not breaking with it. It is guaranteed to get us nowhere, faster.

The Trump Regime wants you to believe that core cpi inflation dropped from 3.01% year over year in September to 2.63% in November, lower than April's 2.77% and lower than at any point since 2021

 October 2025 is missing.

 The BLS remains in the hands of an acting commissioner since Trump fired McEntarfer in August. 

 

Core cpi inflation year over year in September 2025 coming in right between volatile food and energy is not comforting

Core cpi inflation year over year in September 2025 was 3.0%, a rate 52% higher than the 1.97% average rate under Trump I.

Food yoy was 3.1% and energy yoy was 2.8%.

None of this is good news!

 

You're telling me the Fed is going to cut when core cpi inflation at 3.1% year over year in August 2025 is a rate 72% higher than prevailed 2010-2020?

 

The Financial Times is full of it about a rate cut, and can't even spell

 

 ... the Fed chair is clearly more convinced by the employment side of that equation, indicating that “adjustment” may be necessary — a big hint that the central bank is poised to restart cuts in interest rates next month.

This was itself a surprise to investors, who seemingly were expecting a snoozefest. The dollar dropped sharply, government bonds jumped in price and stocks picked up at the end of a rough week as markets baked in those new expectations. A cut next month is now seen as a done deal, with likely chops in the following two meetings too. ...

If employment data for August picks up from its summer lull, which we will not know until the first week of September, then the Fed will be in the awkward spot of cutting interest rates in to a decent jobs market with inflation still running above target. “The Fed would risk a policy error if it were to cut rates,” warned analysts at Bank of America. ...

The Fed is supported by structures that protect its independence, but anyone who doubts Trump’s desire and willingness to bend it towards his will is kidding themself ... 

More.

Complete tosh. 

The Fed is data dependent, and there are two inflation readings and one employment report intervening before the next rate decision. 

Powell never even got close to saying the FOMC was poised to make a policy change. His remarks, as always, emphasize data and contextualize hypotheticals, that's all.

The press are scoundrels trying to bully the Fed like this. They are on Trump's level in Dante's Inferno. 

Powell said conditions "may warrant adjusting our policy stance." That could include a rate hike as well as a rate cut. He said "risks to inflation are tilted to the upside" while "the labor market appears to be in balance" even after the huge downward revisions to total nonfarm employment which got the head of the BLS fired.

In fact, he said that the latest data for July core pce inflation, which won't be out until Friday, indicate 2.9% year over year, an uptick from June's 2.8%. That's not good news for the rate cut cheerleaders, and that's why no one is reporting it. 

The FOMC is not going to cut the interest rate if that happens and employment remains steady.

August 29 and September 5 will tell us what is likely to happen on September 17, not The Financial Times. Fittingly, the ignoramus for The Financial Times ends her column with a preposition.

And don't forget core cpi inflation on September 11. Powell & Company will have all the very latest data for their decision, on which they will rely:

Monetary policy is not on a preset course. FOMC members will make these decisions, based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks. We will never deviate from that approach. 

Forecasters YUGELY underestimated July producer price increases, aka wholesale prices, forecasting +0.2% month over month, getting +0.9% instead lol

 

Hey, they're only off by a factor of 4.5x.

Low inflation expectations based on June were clobbered by the facts, but to hell with the facts. $SPX is down only 0.07% at this hour.

The market cheerleaders desperately cling to the belief that the Fed must lower interest rates in September. When the numbers come in 0.1 below expectations, they go wild and drive up stocks like madmen believing they must be right. When the forecast misses like this they just hold.

On a year over year basis, the forecast was for +2.5% for overall wholesale prices, but they got +3.3% instead, seasonally adjusted.

For core wholesale prices the consensus forecast was for +2.9% year over year, but they got +3.7% instead, again seasonally adjusted.   

Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected

Wholesale prices rose far more than expected in July, providing a potential sign that inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday showed.

The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain. It was the biggest monthly increase since June 2022.

Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index was up 0.6%, the biggest gain since March 2022. ...

It's not a potential sign of inflation, you idiots. It's a real sign.

The year over year numbers, not seasonally adjusted, for core wholesale price increases in the July report are oddly unchanged from the June report in no respect, for the increases since October 2024. In fact, the figures are exactly the same to five decimal places. It's like everybody went on vacation and just copied and pasted and went to the beach: 

Nov 2024: 3.35987

Dec 2024: 3.74962

Jan 2025: 3.92532

Feb 2025: 3.73239

Mar 2025: 3.78846

Apr 2025: 3.07652

May 2025: 3.21542

Jun 2025: 2.62853

and Jul 2025: 3.65568.

The average of these Nov thru May is 3.54965. July looks like that, but June sure the hell still does not.

I smell a rat.

Meanwhile . . . 

Core cpi inflation yoy averaged 2.9% in the first half of 2025, but 3.1% in July.

Core pce inflation yoy averaged 2.8% in the first half of 2025 (July numbers come Aug 29th). 

But core wholesale prices were up 3.4% in the first half on average, and 3.7% in July according to today's report.

How long can producers not pass that along? Or do we have a broader issue here with trustworthy numbers, because Mad King Ludwig is in charge?

Core cpi inflation year over year is back above 3% to 3.1% in July 2025, more than expected, the second consecutive monthly increase

But of course overall inflation is what CNBC wants to trumpet because there was an expectation for higher at 2.8% yoy and they got lower.

But one could just as easily say the tariffs are to blame for the higher than expected core rate at 3.1% instead of 3%.

But that wouldn't be cheerleading the markets, now would it?

 

Consumer prices rise 2.7% annually in July, less than expected amid tariff worries

 

 

This person lives in the world of unreality and thousands upon thousands upon thousands follow him

 

That core cpi was up sharply is completely meaningless to this person. Who cares what people expected?

He also is mistaken about the Fed's preferred measure, which is NOT this but rather core pce.

Replies to all his posts are turned off, and he follows no one.

Core cpi inflation in June 2025 is up sharply to 2.93% year over year from 2.78% in May

 

Core cpi inflation year over year in May 2025 is 2.8% for the third month in a row, 55% higher than 2010-2020 average of 1.8%

 The not seasonally adjusted trend is flat as a pancake.

The seasonally adjusted trend puts a little down-tilting lipstick on the trend pig, but still rounds to 2.8%. 

The rate of core cpi inflation is still running 55% ahead of the 2010-2020 average and liberal VOX wonders where is the inflation

Meanwhile you start turning on, and turning off, tariffs in February and expect to see massive, economy-turning evidence already in the April data?

Save it for the drive-thru.

 

The Tariffs Are Here. Inflation Isn’t. What Gives?

Eric Levitz, Vox