Thursday, December 25, 2025

Unbelievably rosy GDP report contained core pce inflation data at 2.9% countering previous rosy core cpi inflation report at 2.6% and indicating rising inflation

 

The U.S. economy grew at a much greater-than-expected pace in the third quarter, boosted by strong consumer spending, a delayed report released Tuesday showed.

U.S. gross domestic product, a sum of all goods and services produced in the sprawling U.S. economy, expanded by 4.3% in the July-September period, the Commerce Department said in its initial reading of third-quarter growth. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a gain of 3.2%.  ...
 
The economy moved forward during the period despite persistent signs of inflation pressures.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation gauge, rose 2.8% during the period, and 2.9% for core which excludes food and energy. Both were above prior respective readings of 2.1% and 2.6% and remain well above the Fed’s 2% inflation gauge. Also, the chain-weighted price index, which accounts for changes in consumer behavior such as switching to less expensive products for pricier items, rose 3.8%, a full percentage point above the forecast. ...


 As for the GDP report, even if you accept the rosy number as reported, it remains that . . .

Trump's real GDP since 2017 is growing at a compound annual rate which is 5% lower than the rate for 1984-2017; and
 
Trump's GDP since 2017 is growing at a compound annual rate 21% lower than the rate for 1947-2017.
 
Meanwhile GDP since 1984 is growing at a compound annual rate which is 28% lower than for 1947-1984.
 
And GDP since the Great Recession in 2007 is growing at a compound annual rate 42% lower than for 1947-2007.
 
The results of the era inaugurated by Reagan have been devastating. Real GDP today would be much higher had the previous long term trend continued.
 
3Q1984 Reagan real GDP of 8252.46 at the pre-Reagan rate of compound annual growth since 1947 would be 36213.94 today instead of 24024.95, 50% higher.
 
The Trump era is doubling down on stupid, not breaking with it. It is guaranteed to get us nowhere, faster.