Could Michele Tafoya be the key to the first statewide GOP victory in Minnesota since 2006?
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| Michele Tafoya? |
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| Or crazy lady with a knife? |
Friday, August 21, 2026
Thursday, August 20, 2026
Larry Kudlow is back touting a non-existent booming economy just like he did during Trump's first administration
This Is the Best 'Hard Goods' Boom in Decades
... Tuesday’s industrial production report showed back-to-back gains in June and July for both total production and manufacturing production. ...
Larry is rightly happy about the increase in the durable manufacturing index.
No doubt about it, it is up, but notice that it is still not as high as it was in Trump 2018 or Obama 2014.
More importantly, percent change in the index for 1H2026 was 1.94, lower than the 2.28 in 1H2018 when Trump was president the first time.
But this isn't an economic boom, and neither was that.
Those are welcome highpoints but in a long-term trend all down hill since the 1980s when Reagan was president, and no one asks why.
Kudlow & Co. never go back in the data as far as they should, even though they served in the Reagan Revolution and touted the results for the economy of the posthumous JFK tax cut in the Revenue Act of 1964, which cut the top marginal rate from 91% to 70%.
Today they use these data sets which go back only to the beginning of 1972, but even at that there is a giant durable goods growth spike of 9.02% in 2H1983 which we have been unable to reproduce since then, which should make them ask themselves, What went wrong?, but it doesn't.
Socrates said that the unexamined life isn't worth living.
So let's examine it.
Robust post-war growth is a truism which is true!
Industrial production generally, and for manufacturing specifically, grew robustly year over year, and the trend for those growth rates was itself strongly positive, as the chart for 1948 to 1984 shows.
But look at what happens after 1984.
You still get positive growth rates year over year, but not as robust as before, and the trend for those growth rates becomes strongly negative.
Something changed in the 1980s to cause this.
I say it's the Reagan Revolution in ordinary income tax rate reductions which caused this, not because tax cuts for rich people is bad, but because Reagan unintentionally sabotaged the tax rate arbitrage which before those tax cuts existed had pushed rich people for decades to make long term capital investments here at home in order to get low capital gains taxes in return.
In other words, Reagan destroyed the negative incentives which drove domestic investment. Take away the penalty of high ordinary income tax rates, and suddenly there's no reason to plow your money into the investments which drive business, jobs, and GDP, especially as enthusiasm for regulations of all kinds began to grow and hamstring profits.
The new tax cut windfalls freed up a lot of money to seek return wherever it could be found, and in the aftermath of the Reagan era that money increasingly went abroad. For people who lived through it, the one persistent theme of the business news was one business after another closing up shop in America and moving production overseas. After China entered the WTO, the steady departure of businesses from America became a flood.
And that's why that last chart, for 1984 to the present, looks like hell.
It has nothing to do with the U.S. Dollar being the world's reserve currency either. That is the dumbest thing I've heard in years, and I can't tell you how amusing that is coming out of the mouth of a Yalie. I guess they don't teach 'em at Yale that the dollar was the world's reserve currency 1948-1984.
I am not an economist. I do not know how to wave a magic wand of policy to make it all right again.
I am just a scholar in the humanities who wanted to know what turned my world upside down in 2007 and why I and millions like me have never recovered.
I have made a life for myself in spite of it all, as people do, but I tell you what, America was pretty great once, so don't tell me this is an economic boom.
I knew the economic boom. The economic boom was a friend of mine. And Larry, this isn't an economic boom.
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Abdul emphasizes that your private health insurance goes bye-bye under Medicare For All
He's not "public option". He's Medicare For All.
Otherwise known as: Private Health Insurance For Nobody.
Adjusted for inflation, March 1994 diesel for $1.10 should have cost $2.50 in July 2026, but it averaged $4.95 instead
And we're pushing $5.50 in August.
Middle East tanker transits Aug 11-17, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 1.4/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 8.7/day
JMIC UPDATE 086:
... IRGC attacks, hailing, and routing pressure continue, particularly for AIS-on vessels [in the Strait of Hormuz]. ... Vessels stationary for extended periods, or maintaining AIS-on while static, may still face elevated targeting risk [in the Arabian Gulf]. ... AIS-off operations at Yanbu remain the established norm. The AIS-off berth and waiting-area posture has been sustained without interruption for six weeks. ... AIS-off operations at Yanbu berths, waiting areas and approaches are highly likely to remain elevated. ...
Industrial production missed the consensus estimate yesterday, so they trotted out Larry Kudlow to tell you otherwise lol
For month over month in July, the consensus estimate was for +0.3%. Instead we got +0.2%.
Meanwhile the big picture shows, like so many indicators, that industrial production hit the big brick wall of Reaganism in 1984.
Post-war industrial production grew handsomely and its growth rate trended upward from 1948 to 1984, but not after.
Why is that?
I think it's because the incentive to invest in domestic industry went away because of the Reagan tax revolution.
Up to that time, high ordinary income tax rates had pushed owners of capital to invest in America for decades because by doing so they could take advantage of relatively much lower long term capital gains tax rates when they wanted to take income. After the dramatic Reagan cuts to ordinary income tax rates, that arbitrage disappeared. From that time onward owners of capital, now flush with cash from taking income at low ordinary income tax rates year upon year, found it more advantageous to invest abroad where low labor costs and unregulated markets promised even more fabulous returns on investment as America hobbled itself with regulation at home. The exit of businesses of all sizes from the United States to East Asia which began from this time turned into a flood after China was admitted into the WTO in 2001.
But today J. D. Vance thinks the U.S. Dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is the cause of all our problems.
If you want to know what makes me despair, that's it.
The following news story was more accurate than Kudlow.
US: Industrial Production Up Again in July as Modest Manufacturing Recovery Continues
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell to $9.299 trillion in June, from $9.371 trillion in May
Big whoop.
Year over year the value of holdings is up 2.26%, from $9.093 trillion in June 2025.
Monday, August 17, 2026
Yeah, well, the reports were "benign" but the facts weren't
This is the problem with fake economic news, which isn't meant to inform. It's meant to shape, just like fake polls.
It's disinformation, meant to blunt the bad news every time its ugly head pops up to keep stock markets from falling.
Everybody's talking the stock market book, because everything else sucks. They're afraid that speaking the truth would be all it takes to destroy confidence in the economy, when everyone who must experience the economy on the street knows it is not booming.
What rising Treasury yields are telling us
... The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond ended the week at 5.26%, the highest since June 2007, despite benign reports on consumer and wholesale price inflation. (This is unusual, as long-term yields tend to move lower when inflation becomes less of a worry.) ...
Core wholesale prices have been increasing at an average monthly rate of 4.24% in 2026. Peak before the pandemic was 2.99% in August 2011.
Core consumer inflation averaged 2.62% in 1H2026. Before 2021 there wasn't a reading that high since 2H2006 at 2.72%. Twenty years ago.
The bond market isn't blind to the facts like these reporters are, who have their heads in the sand.
Yields are rising because of persistent inflation.
Only 3.2 million vehicles in the U.S. have a current "park outside" recall lol
Reported here:
... An estimated 3.2 million vehicles nationwide currently have an outstanding “park outside” recall, according to vehicle history provider Carfax, which described the surging numbers as “concerning.” ...
“For consumers, there seems to be no easy choices,” Kane said. “Where are you going to park it?”...
Well of course the choice is easy.
Don't buy a Kia, Hyundai, or Jeep.
TLT and IEF in the bond drawdown news
SPR isn't the only thing in drawdown lol, down 49.5% since the beginning of 2022. Oil. Pffft. Who needs it, right?
Long term bond investors are getting killed, if any are left still standing. The article linked says most fixed income investors have gone ultra short.
Meanwhile the personal saving rate, which includes monies being socked away in retirement accounts, has plunged to 2.7% in June 2026. A prosperous people saves. Ours is doing something else.
Imagine being down 6.7% per year for five years straight in the "safe" part of your portfolio, or even 1%, when inflation has been raging at 4.5% on average. Real return is far, far more negative.
Here:
... The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), for example, has posted an average annual return of negative 6.7% over the past five years, while its 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) has posted an average annual decline of 1%. ...
Nothing in this story indicates to me that Democrats or Republicans are ready to do what is necessary to fix Social Security
What the results of a Connecticut congressional primary race may mean for Social Security
The full retirement age needs to be increased gradually to 69 from 67 over the next forty years, just as it was from 65 to 67 starting in the 1980s, and a two-point increase in the payroll tax, shared equally by employers and employees, needs to be passed immediately.
Sorry, but that's the deal.
You cannot expand benefits, and you cannot tax people to oblivion to pay for a retirement system who will never have a reasonable expectation of receiving benefits under the program commensurate with what they contributed.
The $1.45 trillion spent by Social Security in retirement benefits in 2025 is NOT welfare.
Sunday, August 16, 2026
Mexico will finally pay for The Wall when J. D. Vance becomes president . . .
. . . but in pesos because J.D. will end the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency.
Saturday, August 15, 2026
GAO said in 2022 the SPR was in very good condition, Trump's Energy Department came into office saying it wasn't, recent drawdowns only compound the problems in the 60 salt caverns
The damn thing will probably collapse before they're done.
Maybe instead of a ballroom next to the White House they can build some new tanks instead.
SPR depletion raises questions about integrity of caverns that store oil
... The Government Accountability Office said in a May report that “repeated partial drawdowns followed by refill can leach a single part of a cavern repeatedly, leading to undesirable shapes.”
The majority of the SPR’s caverns were found to be in “very good condition” after the 2022 drawdown, according to the GAO.
“However, every drawdown cycle expands cavern volume and reduces the spacing between caverns within the salt dome, which ultimately reduces their long-term viability,” it said.
To release oil from the SPR, water is pumped into the bottom of the caverns to displace the crude to the surface and pump it through wells into pipelines.
Seventy million barrels is the strict physical minimum needed at the top of the caverns to keep the extraction pipes safely submerged in oil rather than water, said Siddharth Misra, a petroleum engineering professor at Texas A&M University.
But “the practical operational floor for the crude inventory is between 250 million and 300 million barrels,” Misra said in an email to CNBC. At current inventory levels, “cavern integrity and overall operational capability are at an elevated risk,” he said.
When the inventory drops below 300 million barrels, the SPR loses its ability to pump oil at rapid speeds to address emergencies, Misra said. The system’s pipes and pumps could also get damaged as the oil layer thins at the top and sludge rises toward the extraction intake at the cavern ceiling, he said.
Fresh water is often pumped into the caverns during rapid drawdowns which dissolves the salt walls, Misra said. This “creates flatter, less stable roof and severely thins the critical salt pillars that separate adjacent caverns, greatly increasing the geological risk of a structural cave-in,” he said.
The SPR was originally designed for five full drawdowns. Instead, it has executed dozens of large and small releases over the past 40 years, Misra said.
“Because the system was not designed for this many cycles, the repeated injection of water and extraction of oil have caused severe cavern deformation, accelerated the rate of massive salt falls from the ceilings, and significantly weakened the overall structural integrity of the aging reserve,” he said.
Energy Department officials told the GAO that they are “holding the SPR infrastructure together with ‘Band-Aids,’ and that it is uncertain how long they will hold.” More than a quarter of the SPR inventory was “not available for drawdown due to a combination of construction outages and cavern outages” as of December 2025, the GAO found. ...
The strapped Chicoms come for the people's cash lol
Beijing is said to move to clarify tax rules stoking confusion among China’s ultra-wealthy
... Beijing last month imposed a 20% tax on offshore trusts – a structure long used by China’s wealthy families to hold hundreds of billions of dollars outside the country. The move set off a panic rush for tax and legal advice, and a scramble for cash to meet the bill.
The levy applies at nearly every stage of a trust’s life, from establishment to profit distribution and wind-up. Individuals must also declare and settle outstanding taxes on assets already transferred into such structures within 90 days of the rules’ release – by Oct. 21 – or face surcharges for late filing or non-payment.
While the rules ended decades of regulatory ambiguity about the vehicles, they have also created fresh confusion over implementation.
Trusts established after 2023 face the 20% charge at inception, but it remains unclear how many years back owners of older structures, which are subject to an annual recurring tax, must declare, said Yuan Cao, Beijing-based partner of law firm Yingke.
Advisors also warn that many trust assets could fall afoul of foreign-investment reporting rules issued in July, potentially inviting scrutiny from foreign-exchange authorities over how the money left China in the first place.
... The tax push comes as Beijing hunts for new sources of fiscal revenue. Land sales, long a mainstay of local government finances, have collapsed amid the property downturn.
... “These measures can easily create a sense that a storm is gathering,” said Neo Wang, chief China strategist at Evercore ISI, who added that these concerns may be overdone. ...
Historian Gordon S. Wood on America: a unique nation dominated by ordinary, Bible-toting people, violent and obsessed with consuming alcohol and making money, vulgar and vibrant, barbarous and boisterous ...
... one that awed and frightened some of its own citizens and many Europeans. It seemed to represent the future for all of humanity.
Here.
Michigan, Texas, and New Mexico in the news feed tonight:
Friday, August 14, 2026
The Party of AOC and Rashida commemorates Fidel yesterday, demands reparations for Cuba just like Abdul El-Sayed does for the Indians lol
Abdul El-Sayed is not a member of DSA. No, no, no. His policies just closely mirror DSA's.
From the deleted tweet department of Abdul El-Sayed, Thanksgiving means that the evil American Empire should pay reparations to the Indians
Don't tell me he wasn't a kindred spirit of Francesca Hong.
Thursday, August 13, 2026
Inflation been berry berry good to Chico, profit margins have never been higher
Net profits margins running at 16.9% instead of 12.4%.
These charts show why stocks keep rallying. Profit margins are the highest on record
And of course they write this headline with a straight face:
Wholesale prices were flat in July, below expectations for 0.2% increase
I got your record corporate profits right here pal, month after month after month:
... On an annual basis, the headline PPI increased 4.7% for the all-items index and 4.2% for core, according to unadjusted figures. ...
Core wholesale price inflation rose at a 4.15% annual rate in July 2026
Prior months in today's report:
June 4.72%
May 4.43%
April 4.92%
March 3.94%
February 3.83%
January 3.71%
The highest average peak level during the Trump I administration was 2.60%, in 2018.
In July 2026 core wholesale prices rose at an annual rate almost 60% higher than the 2018 average.
The average to date in 2026 is 4.24%, 63% higher.
Some of the politically damaging self-owns which Abdul El-Sayed has scrubbed from his youtube channel
Some of the politically damaging self-owns which Abdul El-Sayed has scrubbed from his youtube channel:
Opposition to fireworks
Support for defunding the police
Southern border security not one of the top five problems
Support for replacing 2nd Amendment right to firearms with 2nd Amendment right to healthcare
Support for abolishing prisons
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Saudis ramp up oil exports using Sumed pipeline to the Mediterranean, Sidi Kerir Egypt now exporting 2.3 mbpd in August, more than double the July level
Most of this oil is now going to Europe and the U.S. instead of Asia because of the extra time and shipping cost for going around Africa.
The UAE is now in the catbird seat for shipping oil to Asia, at least until Iran decides to attack Fujairah.
Saudi Arabia ramps up oil exports through Mediterranean pipeline to avoid attacks in Red Sea
... Oil exports from Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir have more than doubled to about 2.3 million barrels per day in August compared to around 1 million bpd last month, according to data provided by the trade intelligence firm Kpler. The majority of those exports are Saudi crude, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler. ...
Saudi exports from Yanbu through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait were down nearly 90% to 1.3 million barrels during the week of Aug. 3, compared with 11 million barrels for the week of July 20 when the Houthis declared the embargo, according to Kpler data. ...
Well, she did a great job flipping the one in the White House in November 2024
Can't take that away from her!
Party of Violence: Democrats have nominated a Jihadi for U.S. Senate from Michigan and an Ojibwe warrior for U.S. Senate from Minnesota
Real Clear Polling reported out Craig by +5 on June 17, Craig Tied with Flanagan on July 22, Craig by +2 on August 7, but Flanagan won by almost +20.
America is based on guns because it's also based on robbery
I mean, we stole the colonies from the king . . . in the second place amirite?
Before that we were stealing his masts.
With no king to rob anymore, we instead rob ourselves.
To be a 1913 millionaire in July 2026, you'll need 33.73 of them, and a high capacity magazine.
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| July 2026 cpi inflation 3.4% |
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| July 2026 core cpi inflation 2.5% |
Some people look at industrial production and see only stagnation since the Great Recession, I see something else
Industrial production last grew above 10% in the first half of 1984, and it's been all downhill since then.
A positive trend struggled to assert itself in the immediate post-war, but eventually succumbed to the siren song, for you Odyssey fans, of foreigners singing the song of lower labor costs.
Our country decided after the struggle of the Great Depression and the victory in the Second World War to sit back and enjoy itself rather than to work as hard as it needed to work and to let others carry the load.
And I will say to my soul, Soul, thou hast much goods laid up for many years; take thine ease, eat, drink, and be merry.
-- Luke 12:19
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| 1946-1984 |
Gen Z hypocrites who ridiculed suburban inauthenticity now sad they'll never be able to have it
What Do Young People Really Want? The Suburbs.
A steady job, a simple house, and a quiet life used to sound like hell to many young people. Now the old American dream is back.
Politicians these days cannot stop talking about “affordability,” especially for housing. And Americans’ cries for relief have grown loud enough to push lawmakers from babbling into action. The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law last month with overwhelming bipartisan support within Congress. It’s encouraging to see members of both parties coming together around something other than just spending more money—and doing so in a way that helps the young more than the old.
In fact, young people are supplying most of the pressure behind this political movement. A Pew Research poll last month found that 89 percent believe buying a home will be harder for them than it was for their parents’ generation.
And it isn’t just the homes themselves. Americans still believe the American dream is worth striving for, yet less than half believe that every American has the opportunity to achieve it. Many young people are trying to find their way toward a lifestyle their parents had that they took for granted and now feel they cannot reach as adults. That includes owning a home, having a good-paying job with benefits, and being able to afford some added comforts in addition to the necessities. In a word, suburbia.
It’s an extraordinary and ironic turn that bourgeois suburban life would become the deepest desire of many young Americans. I grew up in the suburbs in a time when you had to hate the suburbs. ...
If you want to get a feel for the zeitgeist back then, check out Green Day’s 2004 American Idiot album, especially the 9-minute-long epic “Jesus of Suburbia.” Everyone’s so full of shit / Born and raised by hypocrites. It’s a spirited rejection of George W. Bush, the Iraq War, hypocritical parents, and apparently, the suburbs. ...
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Wayne Allyn Root would like Trump to declare another national emergency, for the election
The emergency will be after the election lol.
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