Total lie: We're still in a weak La Nina

 

El Niño has officially begun. UN says phenomenon likely to threaten lives, break temperature records

 

 

 

 

Climate Update for KGRR: October 2021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Climate Update for KGRR: October 2021

 

Max T 80, Mean 79

Min T 31, Mean 28

Av T 57, Mean 51.3                             (7th highest on record for October)

Rain 6.44, Mean 3.06                          (7th most in October on record; La Nina!)

Cooling Degree Days 23, Mean  9      (season is 19th highest on record to date)

Heating Degree Days 266, Mean 425 (8th fewest for October on record)

Climate Update for KGRR: September 2021

 

 

 

 

 

Climate Update for KGRR: September 2021

Max T 86, Mean 88

 

Min T 47, Mean 37 (tied for second highest minimum temperature on record with 1933; only 2019 and 2016 had higher minimums at 48; once again, so-called "global warming" is more a story of moderating at the cold end of the spectrum than of heating at the high end)

 

Av T 65.6, Mean 62.8 (actual to date is running 4.2% above mean to date)

 

Rain 3.34, Mean 3.59 (actual to date is down to just 0.69 above mean to date, or 2.6%; but October precipitation is already well ahead of normal to date, by 1.4; La Nina!)

 

Cooling Degree Days 70, Mean 75

CDD to date 870, Mean 691 (26% higher; the season will crack the list of warmest 20 summers on record; recall that the previous Heating Degree Day season was the 15th mildest winter on record)

 

Oceanic Nino Index shows a moderate La Nina in the 2020-2021 year just past

 

 

The anomaly at or below -0.5 persisted for 10 out of 12 overlapping periods in the 2020-2021 measuring season. For the first two periods of the 2021-2022 measuring season the anomaly continues in the negative at sum -0.9. The deepest anomaly in the last season was -1.3 in the October-November-December period, which is considered neither weak nor strong, but middling.

The trend toward lower ONI values since 1951 is consistent with wetter conditions in the Upper Midwest of the US, and greater incidence of tropical storms in the Atlantic from the 1980s. There is no need to adduce "global warming":

the historical tropical storm count record does not provide compelling evidence for a greenhouse warming induced long-term increase.

 

Grand Rapids, Michigan, climate update for September 2017

Max Temp: Actual 96, Mean 89

Min Temp: Actual 41, Mean 37

Av Temp:   Actual 66.5, Mean 62.7, YTD Actual 53.9, YTD Mean 51.1

Precip:       Actual 0.66, Mean 3.55, YTD Actual 24.98, YTD Mean 26.28

CDD:         Actual 136, Mean 75, YTD Actual 708, YTD Mean 685

In short year to date we are slightly warmer and dryer than the mean.

Average temperature is running 5.5% ahead of mean and cooling degree days about 3.4% ahead of mean. The rain deficit is running about 4.9% behind the mean. For average temperature year to date, compare some of the hotter years 2012 at 56.4, 1931 at 54.2 and 1921 also at 56.4, the average of which is 55.7. We are still 3.2% cooler than that in 2017.

Last season's average ONI value was -0.266, the lingering effects of the five month long Weak La Nina, indicating a very slightly cool ocean in the tropical Pacific over the last year. The preliminary read of the first value in the new season is -0.1.

Despite the heat wave we experienced in September, I still used 8% fewer kWh this September than last and stayed comfortably cool.

Grand Rapids, Michigan, climate update for August 2017

The back of summer was broken last month, and August showed it:

Max Temp: Actual 88, Mean 92

Min Temp: Actual 47, Mean 47

Av Temp:   Actual 68.7, Mean 70.2

Precip:       Actual 1.72, Mean 3.04

CDD:         Actual 140, Mean 188.

The average of the last twelve ONI values is -0.266, the lingering effects of the five month long Weak La Nina, indicating a very slightly cool ocean in the tropical Pacific over the last year.

I used 22% fewer kWh this August than last, but stayed comfortably cool nonetheless.

November 2016 climate summary for Grand Rapids, Michigan

November 2016 climate summary for Grand Rapids, Michigan

Average temperature was 45.4 degrees F. Normal is 39.1. The month ranked 4th warmest November since 1892. The YTD average temperature was 53.4, the 4th warmest YTD average among the previous four warmest full years on record. The normal YTD average temperature is 50. The YTD average temperature in the hottest full year on record in 2012 was 54.4, in 1921 was 54.2, in 1931 was 53.7, in 2016 was 53.4 and in 1998 was 53.2 (the last three were all El Nino episodes).

The lowest temperature recorded this November was 21. The normal lowest temperature is 17. The highest temperature this November was 73. The normal highest temperature is 66.

November 2016 saw 3.24 inches of precipitation. Normal is 2.84. YTD precipitation is 43.33 inches, normal YTD is 31.94. The wettest full year on record was 2008 with 48.80 inches. The driest full year was 1930 with just 20.92.

Snowfall measured 0.8 inches. Normal for November is 6.4 inches. The seasonal total is 0.8 inches, and the normal seasonal total is 6.8. Normal seasonal snowfall is 66.7 inches. The snowiest season on record was in 1951-52 with 132 inches of snow. 1905-06 was the least snowy with 20.

There was no change to Cooling Degree Days in November. YTD there were 936 CDD, the 15th warmest on record so far. Normal CDD is 694.

Heating Degree Days totaled 44 in September, 324 in October and 580 in November for a total of 948 for the season so far. Normal HDD seasonally is as follows: July, 9, August, 19, September, 137, October, 427 and November, 770 for a seasonal normal to date of 1362. Normal for a full season is 6713 HDD. The coldest winter season by HDD was in 1903-04 with 7712. The warmest was in 2011-12 with just 5253.

Actual lower HDD presently have been indicative of the after effects of warmer conditions prevailing since the end of the El Nino this summer. The Very Strong El Nino of 2015-16, averaging 1.43 on the index and 15 months long, was longer but weaker than the 1997-98 episode, which averaged 1.56 on the index and was 13 months long. The 1982-83 VSE averaged 1.3 on the index and was 15 months long.

The Oceanic Nino Index value for the August-September-October measuring period was -0.7, the second consecutive measurement at -0.5 or lower. Five such values consecutively would indicate the onset of a La Nina, which could produce wetter conditions in the US High Plains and Upper Midwest and lots of snow in Canada.

No thanks. Been pretty wet in these parts already, Pilgrim.

La Nina's Sudden Exit Three Months Ago Blamed For Brutal Tornado Season

Story here.