TACO Trump is negative for long term investment, 1Q2025 exports were the worst on record for their positive contribution to GDP

Does anybody ever talk about exports anymore? You know, from domestic production? 

... In recent years, a cautious optimism had returned, as supply chain shocks from the pandemic pushed some companies to bring production back to the US. 

But frequent changes and uncertainty around where Trump's tariff policy is headed has 'got people spooked,' Andrew Anagnost, CEO of Autodesk, told the outlet.

The company sells software used by manufacturers to design factories and improve processes. 

'The current operating mode is just the death to long-term investment,' he said. 

While construction projects that were already underway are still going ahead, he added, confusion about the future is stalling new work. ...

More. 

Exports are a " + " when calculating GDP. Imports are a " - " when calculating it.

Exports' contribution to GDP in 1Q2025 is THE WORST ON RECORD.

No wonder GDP was negative. Outside the pandemic soaring imports had their worst negative impact on GDP on record in 1Q2025.

It's a terrible time to be introducing new huge taxes on imports needed by domestic manufacturers, but that's what Trump is doing. 

 

 

 

Israel has started attacking Iran's oil sector in Bushehr Province this morning, which will concern China since it imports 16% of its oil from Iran, buying 90% of Iranian oil exports

 The cash China provides Iran in this transaction funds the ballistic missiles raining down on Tel Aviv this week.

 

 

 

Federal Open Market Committee says inflation remains somewhat elevated and the economic outlook is increasingly uncertain, leaves DFF between 4.25 and 4.5, i.e. 4.33

 

Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. ...

More.

Canada stopped exports of hydroelectric power to New England on March 6th

On March 6, at the start of the still-simmering trade war between the U.S. and Canada, hydropower generator Hydro‑Québec quietly stopped exporting electricity to New England. ...

Hydro‑Québec’s main transmission line into New England, known as the Phase II line, stopped exporting any meaningful amount of power two days after President Donald Trump’s tariff on Canadian imports went into effect. Last March, by comparison, anywhere from a few hundred megawatts to more than 1,200 MW flowed along the line at any given time, making up between 5% and 10% of the region’s electricity use on average, Turner estimated. ... 

Last year, 5,560 gigawatt-hours of power traveled into the region over the Phase II line, less than half the amount exported in 2022. ...

More.

Trump's biggest tariff, 50%, was on tiny landlocked poverty-stricken Lesotho inside South Africa, over a minuscule trade imbalance of $234.5 MILLION in 2024, which is under a treaty for godsakes

 

Lesotho's exports to the US in 2024 were valued at $237.3 MILLION lol. Trump now wants 50% of that.

King George III, who also was nuts, was a benevolent king to America compared to this guy.

 Trump's biggest tariff was on tiny Lesotho. Here's what to know about the African kingdom.

... Mr. Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs included a whopping 50% levy on the small, impoverished nation's imports, and the Lesotho government quickly said it would send a delegation to Washington. ...

Lesotho's annual gross domestic product of $2 billion is highly reliant on exports, mostly of textiles, including jeans. ...

The White House claims, by way of [its] formula, that Lesotho imposes 99% tariffs and other barriers on U.S. imports. ...

With an annual gross domestic product of just over $2 billion, Lesotho is largely dependent on South Africa — it biggest trading partner — from which it imports most of its food, selling water in return.

The economy has been heavily reliant on textile exports bound for the United States through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) trade deal, which provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for some African products. The Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on African nations has raised questions over how likely the White House is to renew the AGOA pact when it expires in September. ...

Normally you institute protectionist policies like tariffs when you already have something to protect, not before

But our Orwellian Republicans put the cart before the horse.

You can't return to something which no longer exists. The net trade deficit for 2024 is nearly $1 trillion, instead of flat like during the post-war up until Reagan, who first ran in 1976 against Ford, when tariffs still had something to protect but we listened to the siren song of free-trade instead.

That is why the Trump administration has had to cast about for at least six different reasons for instituting tariffs at the present time, none of which are at all convincing otherwise there wouldn't be six of them, not to mention that the math used for them is preposterous, or that they are the farthest thing from reciprocal.

The real reason for them, however, is that the tariffs, like the executive orders which now number over 100, are the immediate strings available to our Puppet Master, which he can pull this way one day and that way another, your ever present reminder of who is in charge around here. Suck up to him and he'll make a deal.

Trump's White House laughably brags about these things.

New taxes, which is what these tariffs are, are liberating don't you see!

Our mad King Ludwig needs this constant adulation. The tyrant has desires which he can never fulfill, Plato warned us.

But of course all this can be undone by the next president, which is no way to run a country. It makes for deep institutional instability and distrust throughout the global economy, for which few can reasonably plan.

The message remains the same: Expect Kaos. 

 

The United States consumed 20.25 million barrels of oil per day in 2023, 3.88 million of which come from Canada and 3.38 million from Alberta lol

 

  What could possibly go wrong?

... Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world and Alberta is the country’s biggest producer. Some 97% of the country’s 4 million bpd of oil exports went to the U.S. in 2023 with several European nations and Hong Kong taking the remainder, according to Canada’s energy regulator. Alberta supplied 87% of the oil exported from Canada to the U.S. in 2023. ...

[Alberta Premier Danielle] Smith said Canada is looking at three different pipeline proposals to its West Coast, at least one pipeline into the Northwest Territories, one into Manitoba, one to the Hudson Bay, and one into Eastern Canada.

“Those are conversations we were not having three months ago,” [provincial energy minister Brian] Jean said of the pipelines. ...

More.

Ontario's Doug Ford slaps 25% tariff on electricity bound for Minnesota, Michigan, and New York, threatens total cut-off

 

Ontario slaps 25% tax increase on electricity exports to U.S. in response to Trump’s trade war 

 

... “I will not hesitate to increase this charge. If the United State escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said at a news conference in Toronto. “Believe me when I say I do not want to do this. I feel terrible for the American people who didn’t start this trade war. It’s one person who is responsible, it’s President Trump.” ...

Quebec is also considering taking similar measures with electricity exports to the U.S. ...

Ford estimated it will add about CA$100 ($69) a month to the bills of each American affected. “It needs to end. Until these tariffs are off the table, until the threat of tariffs is gone for good, Ontario will not relent,”  Ford said. ...

Ford’s Progressive Conservative government just won reelection by standing up for Canada against Trump. ...

Global coal electric capacity hit 2,175 gigawatts in 2024

China added nearly 31gw of new coal electric capacity in 2024 and India nearly 6gw while the US retired almost 5gw, according to the story:

. . . U.S. exports of coal have been rising steadily to satisfy growing global demand for the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel, even though its domestic consumption has decreased.

On top of that, the world’s coal capacity reached a new record high of nearly 2,175 gigawatts in 2024, data from Global Energy Monitor showed on Feb. 6. Coal capacity is the overall power output that can be generated from coal-fired power plants. ...

More. 

According to Electric Power Annual for 2023 at the US Energy Information Administration, existing US coal electric capacity is down to 193gw, behind natural gas at 572gw and ahead of wind at 148gw. Nuclear is still a distant fourth at 100gw from 93 existing utility-scale generators.

Trump executive order reverses Biden's pause on new approvals of LNG projects

 It is little discussed, but Biden's pause on the new projects was based, in part, on the negative impact on prices paid by consumers because natural gas was being diverted to LNG exports. Reduced domestic supply has led to higher prices paid by consumers:

The current economic and environmental analyses DOE uses to underpin its LNG export authorizations are roughly five years old and no longer adequately account for considerations like potential energy cost increases for American consumers and manufacturers beyond current authorizations or the latest assessment of the impact of greenhouse gas emissions. 

Natural gas diverted to export already reached 10% of production in 2022.

Reported here:

The president reversed the Biden administration’s pause on new liquefied natural gas export facilities. Trump directed the Energy secretary to start reviewing new LNG projects as quickly as possible.     

Natural gas prices have exploded by 210% since Trump was elected in November.

This is just BS from Speaker Mike Johnson about LNG exports and Joe Biden's memory

 Whatever may be said about Joe Biden's memory, he didn't have a memory lapse in this instance as alleged by the Speaker of the US House of Representatives. It's troubling that Mike Johnson would misrepresent this in this way. 

Joe Biden doesn't have a monopoly on "fake shit".

Sir, why did you [President Biden] pause LNG exports to Europe? Like, I don't understand. Liquefied natural gas is in great demand by our allies. Why would you do that? You understand -- we just talked about Ukraine -- you’re fueling Vladimir Putin’s war machine because they’ve got to get their gas from him."

He looks at me, stunned, and says, "I didn’t, I didn’t do that."

I said, "Mr. President, yes, you did. It was an executive order, like, three weeks ago."

He says, "No, I didn’t do that." He’s arguing with me.

-- The Moment Speaker Mike Johnson Knew Biden Wasn't "In Charge" Anymore 

LNG exports to Europe were not paused. And demand in Europe dropped in 2024. Biden signed a temporary pause for pending approvals of LNG exports, not for existing approvals of LNG exports. This and Mike's other comments in the story indicate that he is not exactly reliable on the subject. But he could have easily just looked it up.

Jan 26, 2024:

FACT SHEET: Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces Temporary Pause on Pending Approvals of Liquefied Natural Gas Exports

Sep 4, 2024:

US LNG export dominance tested as Europe's demand wilts

Meanwhile, Mike Johnson didn't tell anybody about this until now? Seems like a dereliction of duty for the man in line right behind the VP to become president in the event of incapacity or death.

And, oh yeah, US LNG export tanker loads hit a seven-month high in January 2025 at 71, through yesterday:

 

 

 

New Zealand under Christopher Luxon will reverse a ban on oil and gas exploration, push the pricing of agricultural emissions back five years, and encourage more mining

 The agricultural sector including fishing contributes 5% to the economy, and accounts for about 80% of total exports. The farmers who helped Luxon's government come to power had said the environmental policies that the coalition government are reversing would have made dairy and meat too costly to produce. ... 

Climate Minister Simon Watts said the government expects to meet the 2030 target but admitted more work was needed to meet the 2035 target. "The Government is committed to meeting our climate change targets, but the way in which we do this will be different to former New Zealand Governments," he said. "This Government is using a least-cost approach to meet our climate targets. We will not shut down sectors that are boosting our economy and exports." ...

Other sectors the government is targeting are energy and mineral resources. It has said it would allow oil and gas exploration again, which former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern banned in 2018, in a bid to reduce imports of coal, boost fuel exports and keep energy prices for the public and small businesses low.

Reuters

Biden restarts Obama's war on new coal leasing ended by Trump . . . just in time for the election

 

 In one of its biggest steps yet to keep fossil fuels in the ground, the Biden administration announced Thursday that it will end new coal leasing in the Powder River Basin, which produces nearly half the coal in the United States.

Climate activists have long pushed the Interior Department to stop auctioning off leases for coal mining on public lands, and they celebrated the decision. It could prevent billions of tons of coal from being extracted from more than 13 million acres across Montana and Wyoming, with major implications for U.S. climate goals. ...

Last year, the Powder River Basin generated 251.9 million tons of coal, accounting for nearly 44 percent of all coal produced in the United States. Under the bureau’s [Bureau of Land Management] determination, the 14 active coal mines in the Powder River Basin can continue operating on lands they have leased, but they cannot expand onto other public lands in the region. ...

The Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign estimates that 382 coal-fired power plants have closed down or proposed to retire, with 148 remaining. ...

Trump ... pledged to immediately end the Biden administration’s freeze on permits for new liquefied natural gas exports in a second term . . .. He also pledged to start auctioning off more leases for oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and to lift restrictions on drilling in the Alaskan Arctic. 

More.

I don't know about you, but my natural gas and electric costs are up 71% from two years ago

 Why?

Basically a combination of demand for domestic electric power production, demand for LNG exports to Europe because of the Ukraine war, low inventories headed into the winter, and fear.

Prices have quadrupled.

And Biden is considering ending all offshore drilling.

We are so screwed by these Democrat clowns.

Why Have U.S. Natural Gas Prices Soared Since 2020?

. . . natural gas production levels are at record highs, so we can’t blame a lack of production on this issue. This is from soaring demand, led in the past two years by the fastest-growing LNG export market in the world.

The UK and The Netherlands join Germany in crying uncle over Russian energy embargo to stop Ukraine war

CNBC here:

Germany, the Netherlands and the U.K. have appeared to back away from a coordinated Western embargo on Russian energy exports, however. ...

Western sanctions imposed on Russia over the invasion have so far been carefully constructed to avoid directly hitting the country’s energy exports, although there are already signs the measures are inadvertently prompting banks and traders to shun Russian crude. ...

“You can’t simply close down use of oil and gas overnight, even from Russia. That’s obviously not something that every country around the world can do,” Johnson said. ...

And just like that we have a Russian invasion of Ukraine from every direction

 Vladimir Putin obviously cares less about the money he can make off oil exports than he does about reincorporating Ukraine into Russia.

The Grauniad: Barack Obama, poster boy for climate hypocrisy

 

The young people who were children when Obama took office did not clear the way for a 750% explosion in crude oil exports, as he did just a few days after the Paris agreement was brokered in 2015. Nor did they boast proudly about it years later, as ever-more research mounted about the dangers of continuing to invest in fossil fuels. Speaking at a Houston, Texas gala in 2018, the former president proudly took credit for booming US fossil fuel production. “Suddenly America is the largest oil producer. That was me people,” he boasted jokingly to an industry-friendly crowd. “Say thank you.”

More, lol.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is muting expectations for 2020 GDP growth as Wall Street predicts a pathetic 1.8%

“I think our projections have been reduced because of Boeing and other impacts,” he told the Fox Business Network from the White House. “I think we would have hit 3%, but again, Boeing has had a big impact on our exports, being the largest exporter.”

“I think that could be 50 basis points or not more,” he added. ...

Wall Street consensus forecast for 2020 GDP is around 1.8% and the Federal Reserve’s forecast is 2%.

Story.

US on its way to becoming a net exporter of oil, dominating global oil market and securing the dollar as global reserve currency

Note to Chris Irons: This is not bullish for gold.

The US is about to send a lot more oil into an already oversupplied world market: 

“It will be 4 million barrels a day by six or eight months. Four million barrels a day is a lot bigger than the North Sea as a whole. That crude oil is going to go everywhere. It goes to Asia, Europe, to India,” said Edward Morse, Citigroup global head of commodities research. “If the U.S. gets to 6 million barrels a day in three years, it will be hands-down the world benchmark.” ... 

“Add on the amount of petroleum products that are exported and add on the amount of natural gas that is exported. The U.S. becomes the biggest hub for energy trading in the world,” said Morse. “It has dramatic implications for the U.S. dollar.”Morse notes there are those who doubt the dollar’s future as the global reserve currency. But in a scenario where the U.S. grows into an energy powerhouse, “the dollar becomes more entrenched.”The U.S. had been the world’s dominant oil producer, prior to World War II. “This will be back to the future for the Gulf Coast,” said Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit Vice Chairman. Yergin said the U.S. would not have had the opportunity to increase production as much, were the law not changed in 2015 to allow for U.S. oil exports.

One term president: Trump's m/o is to dupe, trick and snooker, whether it's Saudi Arabia over oil or Americans over immigration

'Duped,' 'tricked' and 'snookered': Oil analysts say Trump fooled Saudis into tanking crude prices:

"They're pretty much snookered by Trump," Ross said. "I mean, Trump led them to believe that the Iranian exports would be zero. It turned out they're going to be 1.2 to 1.5 million barrels a day, way higher than people thought."