Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Jay Powell is a bitter disappointment, pledging today to moderate rate hikes when he's hardly begun to fight inflation after waiting a year to start

 Jay Powell is such a clown:

  ". . . it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down,” he added. “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”

Story.

Making sure his pals profit under the umbrella of inflationary pressures is worse than insider trading, because we all pay.

We're the marks!

I haven't been this disappointed in a federal official since Donald Trump betrayed his immigration promises in 2017-2018.

And how did stocks respond?



Monday, November 28, 2022

Life insurance payouts soared past $100 billion in 2021 as pandemic took over 800,000 total US lives by year end

 Payouts rose 11% in 2021 to $100.19 billion, most likely due to the pandemic, according to the American Council of Life Insurers. The increase was on the heels of a 15% year-over-year rise in 2020, when death-benefit payments totaled $90.43 billion. ... The year-over-year increases are among the largest since the 1918 flu pandemic, when payments surged 41%. They are far above the 4.9% average from 2011 to 2021, the ACLI said. Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. jumped 20% in 2021 to approximately 460,000, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

More.



Sunday, November 27, 2022

An unappreciated factor in the relatively poor Republican performance in Election 2022 is the death of many of their voters due to the pandemic

 Older voters skew Republican, and COVID-19 victims skew overwhelmingly older.

A 3- to 4-point Republican advantage among a million deaths of older Americans is up to 40,000 voters nationwide who didn't vote in the election, which doesn't seem like much until you consider that 15 US House races were won by margins of 50% and a fraction.

Republicans won 6 of those races, with one additional race undecided with the Republican leading by just 600 votes.

But Democrats won 8 of those races, and each one by approximately 1,300 to 7,000 votes versus all competitors. In four of those races, with Republican opponents only, the Democrats won by just 1,300 to 3,000 votes.





Saturday, November 26, 2022

The legacy of Pelosi's US House


Thus was the building left
Ridiculous; and the work confusion nam'd.
 
-- John Milton

Come and take it, Joe




Friday, November 25, 2022

WaPo: We can no longer say this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated

For the first time, a majority of Americans dying from the coronavirus received at least the primary series of the vaccine. 

 

Fifty-eight percent of coronavirus deaths in August were people who were vaccinated or boosted, according to an analysis conducted for The Health 202 by Cynthia Cox, vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation. 

 

It’s a continuation of a troubling trend that has emerged over the past year. As vaccination rates have increased and new variants appeared, the share of deaths of people who were vaccinated has been steadily rising.

 

In September 2021, vaccinated people made up just 23 percent of coronavirus fatalities. In January and February this year, it was up to 42 percent, per our colleagues Fenit Nirappil and Dan Keating

 

“We can no longer say this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” Cox told The Health 202.

 

Being unvaccinated is still a major risk factor for dying from covid-19. But efficacy wanes over time, and an analysis out last week from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention highlights the need to get regular booster shots to keep one’s risk of death from the coronavirus low, especially for the elderly. ...

 

Around 35 million people have received the updated boosters that became available to people 12 and over in September and to children as young as 5 last month. That’s a little over 10 percent of the U.S. population, amid concern that cooler weather will bring a surge of covid cases as people move indoors and respiratory infections spread.

 

More.


The progress of the pandemic has demonstrated the following facts.


There has been an annual increase in the percentage of the population infected every year, from 6% in 2020 to 10.5% in 2021 to 13.1% in 2022 to date, per Our World in Data and the US Census Population Clock.


Clearly the introduction of vaccines from early 2021 has not stopped the spread, and spread is probably a lot worse than the 2022 data suggest because of a complete breakdown in the testing regime.


On the other hand, while the percentage of the population which died from the pandemic surged by 35% in 2021 from 0.106% in 2020 to 0.143% in 2021, 2022 to date has marked a huge reversal with just 0.076% dead. That's down 47% from 2021 and 28% from 2020.

 

Why is that?

 

Vaccine advocates will credit the vaccines, yet vaccine uptake in the United States is at record lows throughout 2022. Since we know that vaccine protection wears out in mere months and requires repeated boosters, hence the continued drumbeat to get vaccinated, the dramatic decline in deaths cannot be ascribed to the low-uptake environment, especially with the transition from a pandemic of the unvaccinated to a pandemic of the vaccinated admitted publicly by the likes of Kaiser and WaPo.

 

There could be any number of other reasons for the decline in deaths which when combined account for the improved death numbers. These include fewer vulnerable people, more widespread natural immunity, and improved clinical practice and treatment, especially with drugs such as Paxlovid.

 

But perhaps the most important consideration continues to be virus mutation, which explains both the higher percentage of infections and the lower percentage of deaths.

 

The virus has continued to mutate to spread, at the expense of relative lethality.

 

That's what 254k record low deaths in 2022 with 43.6m record high cases tells you.

 

 


 



Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Republicans have won 220 seats in the US House and are expected to finish with a 222 majority over the Democrats with 213

 Frisch conceded to Boebert five days ago.




Non-binary queer man who threatened to blow up his mother's house last year shoots up gay nightclub in Colorado, liberals blame conservatives


Story.

The Trump witch hunt continues: Garland's new special counsel is linked to Lois Lerner while the wife is linked to antisemitic Democrat Rep. Rashida Tlaib

 Mr. Smith set up a meeting in October 2010 with IRS official Lois Lerner “to discuss how the IRS could assist in the criminal enforcement of campaign-finance laws against politically active nonprofits.” ... Federal Election Commission records show that Ms. Chevigny contributed $1,000 each to Mr. Biden’s 2020 campaign, Biden for President and the Biden Victory Fund super PAC, in September 2020. She also donated $150 to a campaign committee supporting Democrat Rashida Tlaib in 2008, when Ms. Tlaib was running for the Michigan House of Representatives.

More.




Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Sunday, November 20, 2022

You can't trust any headline at Drudge, including about the weather

 



The investment cheerleaders in the US are arrayed against the Fed's rising interest rate regime and lie when they say interest rates are coming down

The yield curve recovered 98 basis points in the last week to close at 5488 on Nov 18.

Despite all the alarming volatility in US Treasuries, the curve is little changed from Oct 28 at 5487 or Oct 19 at 5486, one month ago.

The upward trend remains intact. Raising the Fed Funds rate to 3.83% has produced an overall yield curve at 4.22%.

There's plenty more to be done.

The lying rhetoric is designed to persuade the Fed to halt ("You've done enough!"), enlisting as many dupes along the way as it can to join the chorus, since easy money is the industry's goose that laid the golden egg.

But easy money is why this country is $31 trillion in debt, and why inflation is raging at an average of 8.3% in the first half of 2022.

Since March foreigners have held $300 billion less of the stuff on net through September, which is not a good sign.

But consider that there's about $2.9 trillion in US Treasury notes issued in 2020 alone paying just 0.6% on average and maybe you can understand why.

Meanwhile investors holding bonds are down 30.95% year to date (TLT) at the same time the S&P 500 is down 17.33%. A total bond index like VTSAX is down less, 16.92% year to date, which is cold comfort.

But that's not the Fed's biggest problem.

The Fed's biggest problem remains the so-called "dual mandate", to maintain stable prices AND full employment at the same time.

Our disgusting Congress foisted the latter on the Fed in 1978, which was nothing but a damned if you do, damned if you don't abdication of its own political responsibility dumped onto the appointee of the executive.

But the disgusting Congress represents the disgusting people, who want tax cuts AND infrastructure spending at the same time.

The dual mandate didn't stop Paul Volcker from doing what needed to be done to subdue inflation from 1979, but those were different times when the political tables were the reverse. Volcker was a Democrat appointee saddling a new Republican president with an unemployment rate of 9.7% by jacking up the cost of money. 

Jay Powell is a Republican appointee who will have to do the same to a Democrat president to end the current madness.

The pressure on him to relent comes from every quarter. 

We'll see if the new Republican House has the cojones to back him, which it should if it gives a fig about the future of the country.

But Jay Powell will have to prove that he has the cojones first, because the Congress is full of girly men.

He has hardly begun to fight.




Buffalo, New York gets all the headlines, but Grand Rapids, Michigan has already had its second snowiest November ever

 We've been busy around here with three days in a row of 7+ inches of snow each, and in excess of two feet in five days.

Total November snow is already at 27.3 inches, which beats November 1951 at 26.9.

The snowiest November of all time at KGRR was November 2014 with 31 inches.

It was 75 degrees F here in Grand Rapids on November 10.

We dropped to 18 F last night.

Record November snow in Buffalo was 45.6 inches in November 2000. The second snowiest November was 31.3 inches in November 1976.

BUF is officially at 36.9 inches already through the 19th, also making November 2022 its second snowiest November ever, with ten more days left in the month. 

Its three-day history is 9.4, 5.7, and 21.5 inches yesterday.

It was 79 F in Buffalo on the 5th, and dropped to 23 F in Buffalo last night.

Thursday, November 17, 2022

When the government gives it to you good and hard, and you're too dumb to notice

 


If the main planks of your political party are killing the unborn and maiming the reproductive, you've got to get your future voters from somewhere, right?

 Schumer Calls For Path To Citizenship For "All 11 Million, Or However Many" Illegal Immigrants There Are

Liberal Republicans in the Senate and the House again betray the Republican base, work with Democrats to advance same-sex-marriage rights but delayed action to avoid election consequences

Same-sex marriage protections clear critical Senate hurdle

Twelve Republicans voted with all Democrats to move forward on the bill, after negotiators reached a bipartisan deal to include protections for religious liberty.

 

In a 62-37 vote, 12 Republicans voted with all Democrats to move forward on the bill, after negotiators reached a bipartisan deal to include protections for religious liberty. The vote on final passage could occur as soon as this week. ...  

Wednesday’s vote showed Majority Leader Chuck Schumer might get what he hoped for when he delayed the bill to protect same-sex marriage rights from coming to the floor in September, agreeing to Republican requests that the chamber take it up after the election. ... negotiators bet that waiting would help solidify support and allow senators to vote without considering the midterms. ...

While the House passed its same-sex marriage bill in July with support from nearly 50 House Republicans, the process in the Senate has taken more time amid GOP concerns about religious liberty. If the Senate does pass its version, the legislation will need another vote of approval from the House to head to President Joe Biden’s desk. ...

It also would repeal the Defense of Marriage Act signed in 1996, which defined marriage as between one man and one woman under federal laws. 


Conservatism in Congress is insignificant: Some revolt, huh?

 

  • McConnell Overcomes Senate GOP Leadership Challenge in 37-10 Vote 
  • Kevin McCarthy beats far-right challenger 188-31 to lead House GOP
  • Wednesday, November 16, 2022

    Republicans win the majority in the US House

     

  • Republicans Pass the 218 Seat Threshold To Win House Majority
  • The GOP has now won 218 seats after the Associated Press projected that Republican Mike Garcia will win reelection in California's 27th Congressional District.

    Democrats, meanwhile, have secured 209 seats as vote counting continues more than a week after Election Day.  Eight seats are still in play. 

    Saturday, November 12, 2022

    How one voter beat Clark County, Nevada's mail-in ballot signature verification system in 2020 by 89% and again in 2022 by 55%

     

     


    Salena Zito is obviously channeling Peggy Noonan: The women recommend just giving up on secure chain of custody voting

    The weaker sex recommends you give in. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

    That right there is the whole history of conservatism, from the advent of the Progressive Era 130 years ago until now.

    Currently, Democrats are miles ahead of Republicans at targeting specific races and voters. Through mail balloting, they put those voters in the bank early. ... Republicans can complain about the current rules all they want, but what they need to do is wake up and start competing with the Democrats where they are. Otherwise, they're just leaving winnable races on the table.

    Florida Republicans certainly have figured it out. In 2018 and 2020, the Democrats went into Election Day with more ballots cast than Republicans in early voting. This year, Florida Republicans flipped that on its head. Republicans in other states should take note.

    -- Salena Zito, in her conclusion here

    It is rude of Arizona and Nevada to keep the country waiting to know the composition of its Senate. Why, days after the election, don’t we know which party controls the House? Why can’t the late-reporting states get their act together on vote counting? It’s the increase in mail-in ballots? So what? You roll with life and adapt. Florida, which spans two time zones, reports its tallies with professionalism and dispatch. 

    -- Peggy Noonan, from her lede here

     

    Four true words

     Trump lacked the discipline.      

    Stated here.

    That's still the fundamental problem, but that's been the case from the beginning.

    Character counts. Trump has never had it and never will. I cut my losses with Trump in 2018 when he exposed himself as a phony on his chief plank, illegal immigration. He already did that in August 2016, so fool me once, shame on Trump. I am not ashamed to state it over and over again.

    The rest of the party still hasn't come around, however, with so-called conservatives still yammering on about stuff like pOPuLiSm. But that's because opposition to illegal immigration was never a GOP value. The GOP would never be upset because he lied about that.

    It's hard to imagine the GOP pointing to anything in particular which was a line too far. 121 voted in the House to object to the 2020 Arizona vote, 138 to the Pennsylvania vote. Not even three horrible elections in a row is proving to be decisive.

    Meanwhile Democrats have exploited Trump's weakness, and therefore the GOP's, to consolidate power with extraordinary new depth. The new regime of mail-in voting everywhere changes everything. The chain of custody of ballots in voting precincts is broken forever.

    It's the end run around representative government we only imagined the National Popular Vote Compact would be. It's the path to pure democracy. It's the end of legislatures, the end of republicanism, and makes the tyranny of the majority and the repression of the minority the new, terrible future.

    A Supreme Court in principle deferring to the states on everything from election law to drugs, marriage, abortion, gender, etc. is no bulwark against what's coming, indeed, what's already here.

    The people will decide by referendum.

    The people be damned.

    Friday, November 11, 2022

    Because Democrats need the extra time to figure out how many more votes they'll need to win

     Why does ballot counting take so long...

    Clearly the interest rate beatings will have to continue until stock market morale improves

    It's a small point, but the stock market cheerleaders, who are ubiquitous, consistently report year over year inflation as 7.7% when it's 7.8%.

    Nothing must get in the way of the narrative, especially convention.

    Meanwhile, the inflation regime is a giant wealth transfer scheme from you to them. But student loan forgiveness was the anesthetic to make young skulls full of mush forget on Tuesday.

     




    Buh bye, Beto, still out of it after all these years

     


    Buh bye Stacey Abrams, election denier

     


    Thursday, November 10, 2022

    The end is near: The majority increasingly uses the referendum to get what it cannot get from a legislature, and now to vote itself largess out of the public treasury

     Soon it will vote quite literally to redistribute wealth from those who have it to those who have it not.



    Wednesday, November 9, 2022

    Michigan House, Senate, Governor's mansion, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Supreme Court all under Democrat control for first time since 1980s

    This is what happens when you get 1.8 million votes by mail: a record turnout to surpass the 2018 record turnout.

    For the first time in four decades, Democrats are waking up to a state in which their party controls the House and Senate – a feat not done since the early 1980s.

    More.

    It takes a special kind of stupid Republicanism to screw things up this bad: libertarian Republicanism, for which Michigan is famous.

    The key: legislation by referendum of the people instead of by representative government; which yielded 1) easy voting by mail, instead of on election day, for which libertarians are all-in, as they are for abortion, immigration, and free-trade, same as Democrats; and 2) "nonpartisan" redistricting.

    Michigan was never a conservative state, and is finished as a Republican state.

    Michigan has been irretrievably Californicated in the span of four years.

    Trump failed to deliver in 2018 and 2020, now his party fails to deliver in 2022


     

    This should have been a massive wave election. Given the low job approval ratings of the sitting president in his first midterm election, and given the favorable generic congressional ballot numbers, this should have been a plus-five wave in the Senate and a plus-30 wave, or bigger, in the House. It also should have resounded down to statehouses, and yet the GOP turns out, apparently, not to have been able to beat abysmal Democrat gubernatorial candidates like Katie Hobbs, Kathy Hochul, and Gretchen Whitmer. ... Trump didn’t play the net positive role he should have, and that might be the real takeaway. ... Objectively, it’s clear that DeSantis is the future of the GOP.

    Tuesday, November 8, 2022

    Insurrectionists don't answer the phone, lol

     Republicans this cycle are practicing the art of being ungovernable, and the progressives at The Daily Beast are frustrated as hell that no one can predict today's outcome from data:

     Republicans seem less and less inclined to answer poll questions. ... It’s hard to get a truly random sample online the way you can with phone numbers. ... According to Dave Wasserman, the U.S. House editor at the Cook Political Report, the big problem is that “response rates suck. We’re down to 1 percent of people on a good day who are willing to talk to a pollster for free,” he told The Daily Beast.

    Monday, November 7, 2022

    Housing has never been more unaffordable than under Joe Biden and the Democrats

     


    Meanwhile Joe Biden and the Democrats who cut and ran from Afghanistan fell far short of military recruitment even after cutting goals

     The US Army was 25% short, while all the other branches had to dip into delayed-entry recruits to make their goals for this cycle. 

    Active duty military fell to 1.347m in 2020 from 1.388m in 2019.

    In 2021 we're down to 1.195m, a year over year decline of 11.3% and 13.9% from 2019.

    Look at this fearsome lot. These supposedly still meet US Army standards.

    I'm sure our enemies tremble with fear.

     



    Meanwhile Joe Biden and the Democrats get in your face by installing people like this in important federal jobs

     


    Crime has soared in Democrat strongholds under Biden, but the FBI is working hard to hide the data and protect their boy

    The BBC reports:

    There are questions about the reliability of the FBI's crime report as it excluded data from some of the biggest US cities, including New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

    It's important to point out that last year, the FBI switched to a new data collection system. According to one analysis, nearly 40% of law enforcement agencies have failed to report their 2021 crime figures - so we may only have a partial picture of the most recent crime rates.

    Under Joe Biden and the Democrats, border encounters are soaring since 2019 because illegal immigrants know they will likely be released into the US

     Encounters have exploded by 2.4 times under Biden.

    It is estimated that well over 1 million of these illegal immigrants have simply been released into the US by the Biden administration using phony interpretations of immigration law.

    This does not count the illegal immigrants who have snuck in because they were missed by the border authorities overwhelmed by the consequences of the Biden administration's lax border policies.

     



    Joe Biden promised to shut down the coronavirus but in 2022 it is still killing over 800 people per day and remains the third leading cause of death in the United States

     


    The dollar buys 12.2% less after two years of Joe Biden and the Democrats running the show: Runaway inflation

     


    Gasoline is up to $3.79/gallon nationally, 81%, after two years of Joe Biden and Democrats running the show

     


    Sunday, November 6, 2022

    Full time employment averaged a surprisingly strong 50.1% for the first ten months of 2022 in Friday's report

     Still lower than 2019 but pretty good given the circumstances.



    Friday, November 4, 2022

    782,913 out of 10 million in the v-safe program reported seeking medical attention following a COVID-19 vaccination according to a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against the CDC

     Reuters, October 12, 2022

    The people allied with those who wanted to put you in jail for vaccine skepticism now want fOrGiVeNeSs and AmNeStY

    LET’S DECLARE A PANDEMIC AMNESTY

    We have to put these fights aside and declare a pandemic amnesty. ... we need to learn from our mistakes and then let them go. We need to forgive the attacks . . ..


    Get bent, lady economist from Brown University.

    Despite FDA approval of mRNA COVID vaccines, you still can't sue the pharmaceutical companies, and the only government program adjudicating cases is hopelessly overwhelmed

    This story is outrageous.

    The bastards.

    You are already completely out of luck if you received a jab more than one year ago and haven't filed a claim for an injury.

    Some excerpts, but make sure to read the whole thing.

    Reuters (June 16, 2022):

    Part of the Health Resources and Services Administration, the CICP was designed to be “the payer of last resort” for people who suffered injuries from treatments or “countermeasures” related to “a declared pandemic, epidemic or security threat” like Ebola or anthrax. Payouts are limited to unreimbursed medical expenses and up to $50,000 a year in lost wages, with no provisions for pain and suffering or legal fees. A death benefit of $370,376 is also available. 

    The CICP is the only option under current law for people seeking damages for COVID-19 vaccine-related injuries. 

    Per a declaration under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act, the federal government indemnified the vaccine makers, which are not party to CICP proceedings. A Pfizer spokesman declined comment. Media representatives from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson did not respond to requests for comment. 

    Until March 2020, the CICP attracted little attention, deciding fewer than 500 cases in its entire history. It’s now drowning in a 16-fold spike in claims, with more than 5,400 COVID-19 vaccine injury cases pending. Another 2,990 allege injuries or death from other COVID-19 countermeasures, such as being placed on a ventilator. ... At the current rate of adjudication – 18 cases a month, by my calculation – it will take 38 years to get through the backlog. That’s not much help for claimants who are unable to work or pay rent right now. ... 

    Without exception, the CICP requires claims to be filed within one year of vaccination.