This story is all excited about that little squiggle uptick on the right lol

 

The Real Economy: Manufacturing Jobs

Oren Cass, Commonplace

 

Joe Biden manufacturing employment never looked so good.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

I don't know how you crash something that was so tiny already, but Trump found a way

 Manufacturing employment as a percentage of population:

 

Well, that's not supposed to be happening in the new Golden Age

Private payrolls rose by 38,000 in August, less than expected, ADP reports 

 ... Manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services was off 16,000 and both the natural resources and mining as well as trade, transportation and utilities reported declines of 5,000. ...

Larry Kudlow is back touting a non-existent booming economy just like he did during Trump's first administration

 This Is the Best 'Hard Goods' Boom in Decades

... Tuesday’s industrial production report showed back-to-back gains in June and July for both total production and manufacturing production. ...

Larry is rightly happy about the increase in the durable manufacturing index. 

No doubt about it, it is up, but notice that it is still not as high as it was in Trump 2018 or Obama 2014. 

More importantly, percent change in the index for 1H2026 was 1.94, lower than the 2.28 in 1H2018 when Trump was president the first time.

But this isn't an economic boom, and neither was that. 

Those are welcome highpoints but in a long-term trend all down hill since the 1980s when Reagan was president, and no one asks why.

Kudlow & Co. never go back in the data as far as they should, even though they served in the Reagan Revolution and touted the results for the economy of the posthumous JFK tax cut in the Revenue Act of 1964, which cut the top marginal rate from 91% to 70%.

Today they use these data sets which go back only to the beginning of 1972, but even at that there is a giant durable goods growth spike of 9.02% in 2H1983 which we have been unable to reproduce since then, which should make them ask themselves, What went wrong?, but it doesn't.

Socrates said that the unexamined life isn't worth living.

So let's examine it.

Robust post-war growth is a truism which is true!

Industrial production generally, and for manufacturing specifically, grew robustly year over year, and the trend for those growth rates was itself strongly positive, as the chart for 1948 to 1984 shows.

But look at what happens after 1984. 

You still get positive growth rates year over year, but not as robust as before, and the trend for those growth rates becomes strongly negative.

Something changed in the 1980s to cause this.

I say it's the Reagan Revolution in ordinary income tax rate reductions which caused this, not because tax cuts for rich people is bad, but because Reagan unintentionally sabotaged the tax rate arbitrage which before those tax cuts existed had pushed rich people for decades to make long term capital investments here at home in order to get low capital gains taxes in return.

In other words, Reagan destroyed the negative incentives which drove domestic investment. Take away the penalty of high ordinary income tax rates, and suddenly there's no reason to plow your money into the investments which drive business, jobs, and GDP, especially as enthusiasm for regulations of all kinds began to grow and hamstring profits. 

The new tax cut windfalls freed up a lot of money to seek return wherever it could be found, and in the aftermath of the Reagan era that money increasingly went abroad. For people who lived through it, the one persistent theme of the business news was one business after another closing up shop in America and moving production overseas. After China entered the WTO, the steady departure of businesses from America became a flood.

And that's why that last chart, for 1984 to the present, looks like hell.

It has nothing to do with the U.S. Dollar being the world's reserve currency either. That is the dumbest thing I've heard in years, and I can't tell you how amusing that is coming out of the mouth of a Yalie. I guess they don't teach 'em at Yale that the dollar was the world's reserve currency 1948-1984.

I am not an economist. I do not know how to wave a magic wand of policy to make it all right again. 

I am just a scholar in the humanities who wanted to know what turned my world upside down in 2007 and why I and millions like me have never recovered.

I have made a life for myself in spite of it all, as people do, but I tell you what, America was pretty great once, so don't tell me this is an economic boom.

I knew the economic boom. The economic boom was a friend of mine. And Larry, this isn't an economic boom.

 

 

The boom in manufacturing is so quiet it's showing up as -0.11% change from a year ago in July 2026 for manufacturing employment

 😂😂😂

The Quiet Manufacturing Boom

Steve Cortes, The Daily Signal

 

This is the ten year chart, from July 2016, a few months before Trump was elected the first time.

 

The trend for manufacturing employment growth since then is negative.

 

Be careful about what politicians promise.

 

You often get the exact opposite ("mission accomplished", affordable healthcare, Mexico will pay for the wall, "we're going to cure cancer", energy bills cut in half, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera).

 

Meanwhile the trend for industrial production in manufacturing remains . . . not good. 

 

 

 

We need 7 million new manufacturing jobs, not 7,000

 

Manufacturing jobs went sideways in April 2026, economic boom nowhere in sight

 

OMG Whirlpool's problems are of much older vintage than February 28, 2026 ROFLMAO

 Whirlpool says Iran war causing ‘recession-level industry decline.’ The shares are down 20%

 

Ha, taxes coerce behavior whether you like it or not, so you'd better decide what behavior you want because you're going to get it good and hard either way

 Tax Power Not Designed To Coerce Behavior - Gary Abernathy, RCEnergy

... the Fifth Circuit’s ruling is a welcome nod to the fact that the federal government cannot take tax laws intended to increase revenue and twist them merely to regulate business activities. ...

I mean, do these people not remember Ronald Reagan?

“If you want more of something, subsidize it; if you want less of something, tax it.” 

But Ronald Reagan ignorantly reduced high marginal ordinary income tax rates, destroying the need for the owners of capital to make the arbitrage decision going forward between either choosing low long term capital gains tax rates or the high ordinary income tax rates. 

The owners of capital had been no dummies and had picked the low rates for years. That drove domestic investment throughout the post-war because it had to, and produced the good paying full time jobs and GDP which too few even remember now. But faced with an easier path to low taxes, they took it.

The tax windfall set the conditions for the hollowing-out of the U.S. economy when those billions of dollars met the opening to China in 2001, where they worked for pennies on the dollar and regulations were practically non-existent.

20,000 domestic manufacturing establishments alone were lost in the wake of the 1986 tax reform, and 70,000 more after 1997. Millions of manufacturing jobs went with them, and with them the American middle class and the American dream.

All because Ronald Reagan, the liberal, thought rich people knew best what to do with their own money.

In the mid-1980s we had maybe 35 billionaires and people in their 20s routinely married and bought their first home. Today we have 1,135 billionaires and people are nearly 40 before they can afford to buy their first home. And we have Ph.D.s all over the place who can't spell in their own language let alone in a foreign one.  

Put a random set of 100 people in a room and the fact is only 25% of them are college material, but the rest need and deserve good jobs the same as they do, and they aren't going to be "knowledge" jobs.

I can still remember my company's HR head telling my truck-driving employees in the 1990s that they had to start thinking of themselves as "knowledge workers" instead of as what they were. I got the hell out of there. By 2003 most of those new "knowledge workers" of mine had lost their jobs driving truck when the company had to "restructure". Just one tale in tens of thousands of such tales.

America will not begin to be great again without tax policy which favors the American people over some eggheaded libertarian's idea of a principle which favors only the rich. 

I keep hearing how we don't need manufacturing jobs because robots and automation are going to save us

 

Manufacturing employment falls again in Feb 2026, back to Mar 2018 levels

 

Manufacturing jobs in Jan 2026 remain down 83k since Trump took over

 

Donald Trump has so far done nothing to boost manufacturing employment, which is down 208,000 since Feb 2023 through Dec 2025

Trump's peak average was 12.779 million manufacturing employees in 2019.

We're at 12.732 million on average in 2025.

The 2023 average was 12.873 million, the post-Great Recession peak.

 

Because we can't build them ourselves

 

Hanwha Ocean shares jump 10% after Trump says South Korean firm to build warships for U.S. Navy

 

Manufacturing capacity utilization was down in November, a pale reflection of its former self before globalization.

 

Same with manufacturing employment.

 

Manufacturing production was barely up in November and is effectively flat since the Great Recession, before which it was still rising.

 

Trump stupidly thinks tariffs can reverse all this, when you're supposed to use tariffs to protect what you have, not what you don't.

 

 

Trump keeps boasting that trillions of dollars are coming into the country to rebuild manufacturing, but the data show big declines in constructing spending on manufacturing

 

Manufacturing jobs have contracted by 58k under Trump

 

Neel Kashkari and other Fed members seem aware at least of the nosedive in labor's share of business income, but are oblivious to its roots in globalization

Fooling around with interest rates isn't going to bring back the core manufacturing businesses which once formed the hubs of American middle class prosperity. That will be just as ineffectual as it has been throughout the Obama administration. Why should it work now all of a sudden when it hasn't worked for ten years?

Well, what else would you expect from the man tasked with implementing the useless TARP sideshow?

Neel Kashkari still hasn't got a clue, but he sure does sound like the workers' friend.

Kashkari Says Worker Bargaining Power Should Inform Fed's Stance: 

Minneapolis Fed chief links rates to labor share in interview

Kashkari’s break from Fed tradition on inequality adds to the case for keeping interest rates low. He suggested faster wage growth and low unemployment may not be putting much upward pressure on inflation because workers have lost a lot of their bargaining power in recent decades, echoing a point Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida has made. ...

H. Ross Perot's $13/hr factory jobs going to Mexico in 1992 should pay $27/hr today adjusted for inflation but pay only $18

The giant sucking sound clip from 1992 is here.

Perot characterized factory wages in 1992 as typically paying between $12 and $14 per hour.

Adjusted for inflation the $13 job in 2017 would pay nearly $27 per hour. The reality is it pays a lot less than that. Factory work in Michigan today basically starts at $15, up only 25% not 107%. The average manufacturing job paying $21+ is composed of a lot of such lower paying positions.

The reality is in Michigan that the top eventual $18/hr advertised wage is the equivalent of less than $9/hr in 1992.

The jobs have gone out of the country, expanding middle classes abroad while impoverishing our own at home.

Our so-called friends the Chicoms installed spychips on thousands of servers used by Apple, Amazon and a host of others

The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate U.S. Companies:

The chips had been inserted during the manufacturing process, two officials say, by operatives from a unit of the People’s Liberation Army. In Supermicro, China’s spies appear to have found a perfect conduit for what U.S. officials now describe as the most significant supply chain attack known to have been carried out against American companies.

A DACA "fix" is a recipe for more illegal immigration

Amnesty for ‘Dreamers’ won’t solve policy flaw creating DACA dilemma:

"Congress itself has been the culprit. ...

Congress continues to refuse to mandate the well-tested and widely-used E-Verify system. The outlaw employers in construction, manufacturing, hospitality and other services, of course, don't use it. Thus, parents worldwide, at this very moment, are enticed to illegally cross borders and overstay their visas while starting their children on the path to the long-term illegal-status life that Dreamers say is untenable. ...

As soon as amnestied illegal immigrants become U.S. citizens, current law allows them to petition for their parents to also obtain lifetime work permits and permanent residency. ...

But in the lifetime of a young Dreamer given an amnesty today, there would likely be time not only to obtain lifetime work permits for the original chain of extended family but for that Dreamer's grandparents (as parents of the Dreamer's parents), aunts and uncles (as siblings of the Dreamer's parents), and cousins (the children of the Dreamer's aunts and uncles).

The chains don't stop there. Every one of those adults could immediately bring their minor children and their spouse. Every spouse can start the same chains in his or her families.

All of them could receive lifetime work permits to compete for jobs with working-age Americans who don’t have a job, nearly one-in-four Americans, according to government data.

That’s the reality of DACA amnesty that Congress needs to face."