Gold surged 64% in 2025, silver 147%, dwarfing more traditional investments

... [Gold] Bullion surged 64% in 2025, its biggest annual gain since 1979, driven by Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, strong central bank buying, and rising ETF holdings. ...

Spot silver advanced 4.6% to $74.52 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $83.62 on Monday, while platinum jumped 4.7% at $2,150.46 per ounce, after rising to an all-time high of $2,478.50 on Monday.

Both metals recorded their best year ever, with silver leading by posting 147% annual gains, driven by its designation as a critical U.S. mineral, supply shortages and low inventories amid rising industrial and investment demand. ...

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Meanwhile in more traditional investments in 2025:

VMMSX +35.66% emerging markets fund

VTIAX +32.18% total international stock index fund

VGENX +20.62 energy fund 

VFIAX +17.83 Vanguard 500 index fund

VGHCX +17.31 healthcare fund

VTSAX +17.12% total stock market index fund

VFICX +9.53% intermediate term investment grade bond fund

VWESX +7.18% long term investment grade bond fund

VBTLX +7.15% total bond index fund admiral

VBMFX +7.03% total bond index fund investor

VFSTX +6.73% short term investment grade bond fund

VMRXX +4.23% money market fund

VGSLX +3.19 real estate fund.

US Treasury yields retreated 3% from their July average in the aggregate on Friday in a flight to safety

 The July average yield of the aggregate of eleven US Treasury issues was 4.2927. Friday's 3% retreat left the aggregate at 4.1636.

Yields on Bills pulled back to 4.2175 from 4.2925 in July, or 1.7%.

Yields on Notes pulled back to 3.866 from 4.042 in July, or 4.3%.

Yields on Bonds pulled back to 4.80 from 4.92 in July, or 2.4%. 

 

VFSTX is now ahead 4.45% year to date.

VFICX is now ahead 6.37% year to date.

VWESX is now ahead 4.47% year to date. 

VBTLX is now ahead 4.67% year to date. 

VTSAX is now ahead 6.26% year to date. 

US Treasury yields pushed to new cycle highs last week despite another Fed interest rate pause

 Cash was about the only thing which did better week over week on Friday. Treasuries and bonds generally took a beating, as did stocks.

The UST yield curve aggregate closed up a net 1.27% week over week on 9/22, to an average of 5.0707692, the highest Friday close yet for this cycle.

Yields in the aggregate made a new high for this cycle on Thursday, for an average of 5.0915384. 

Here's the year-to-date performance for key categories using some commonly used Vanguard funds:

Treasury Market VFISX 0.66% VFITX -0.70% VUSTX -5.57%;

Investment Grade Market VFSTX 2.08% VFICX 1.32% VWESX -0.83%; 

Total Bond Market VBTLX -0.03% (+0.44% previous week);

Cash VMFXX 3.58% (3.48% previous week);

Total Stock Market VTSAX 12.95% (16.45% previous week).

 

 

Let's check in on the US Treasury yield curve and year to date performance of selected Vanguard funds

The UST yield curve aggregate closed up a net 0.68% week over week on 9/15, to an average of 5.006923, the first Friday close this cycle in the 5s.

 

As expected, fixed income isn't doing well in this rising-rate environment. Stocks have done surprisingly well this year, and even cash has beaten bonds.

 

YTD performance:

 

Treasury VFISX 0.68% VFITX -0.26% VUSTX -4.12%;

Investment Grade VFSTX 2.21% VFICX 1.73% VWESX 0.00%; 

Total Bond VBTLX 0.44%; Cash VMFXX 3.48%; Total Stock VTSAX 16.45%.

 

Other popular vehicles: 

 

$SPX 16.37%

$AGG -2.12%

$TLT -8.38%.