Monday, June 29, 2020
Saturday, June 27, 2020
The US COVID-19 case fatality rate as of Jun 27 has dropped to 5.07% from 5.56% on Jun 14
New record daily cases above 40,000 in recent days are associated with record testing levels above 600,000 per day for the first time, diluting the fatality rate to a degree.
Hospitalizations in Southern and Western states are on the upswing at the same time.
Thursday, June 25, 2020
Wednesday, June 24, 2020
If it isn't obvious by now that you're an idiot, Johnny Reb tried to tell you
The Civil War was obviously a waste of time, blood and property.
For every Confederate statue now coming down at the hands of BLM there will eventually be three of a founder of America, a Yankee, or an abolitionist to match it. Eventually, the symbols of your country will be gone. That you'll just let them go shows the actual country is already gone.
This isn't a war on racism. It's a revolution against America. Racism is simply the pretext for it. It is led by the "worldly" type of communist, the black radical who:
"with the realist political outlook, hopes through its followers to destroy society, either from envy or revenge, because of the low place assigned in it to their personality and talents, or, alternatively, to carry away the masses by some program or other for the satisfaction of his own will-to-power".
"with the realist political outlook, hopes through its followers to destroy society, either from envy or revenge, because of the low place assigned in it to their personality and talents, or, alternatively, to carry away the masses by some program or other for the satisfaction of his own will-to-power".
Think Shaun King the "Christian", who now explicitly aims to obliterate the white Jesus from every one of America's ~375,000 congregations.
No good deed is going unpunished, but fools like Ann Coulter will still argue that blacks deserve and should be paid reparations: Those who have done no wrong should pay those who have suffered none, we are told.
140,414 dead Yankees are just chopped liver to these ingrates and fools.
No good deed is going unpunished, but fools like Ann Coulter will still argue that blacks deserve and should be paid reparations: Those who have done no wrong should pay those who have suffered none, we are told.
140,414 dead Yankees are just chopped liver to these ingrates and fools.
Pay all you want, it won't change a thing. Still more will be required of you.
They now think they have the upper hand and are out to replace you. "Diversity is our strength" means "their" strength, not yours. Diversity means your weakness, and the unchecked riots and looting are proof of it.
Christians 244 years ago took up arms against "tyrants" like these and called it "obedience to God".
I can't imagine finding one such person among us today. And you certainly won't find one among the paid mercenaries, the cops. They're just trying to make it to full retirement like everybody else.
Instead, most Christians have become Spengler's "credulous" type of communist, who:
"obsessed by doctrine or feminine sentimentality, remote from and hostile to the world, condemns the wealth of the wicked who prosper and also, at times, the poverty of the good who do not prosper. This lands him either in vague Utopias or throws him back upon asceticism, the monastic life, Bohemia, or vagabondism, which proclaims the futility of all economic effort".
On obsession with doctrine think First Things Magazine, think Sojourners, Christianity Today, and the Patheos crowd for the feminine sentimentalists and wealth condemners, think the Prosperity Gospel movement and the charismatic Dominionists for the critics of the Christianity which is content with little, think Rod Dreher's Benedict Option or the survivalists for the separatists, and also the libertarians who "go Galt", accountable to no one but themselves. Representative all.
They now think they have the upper hand and are out to replace you. "Diversity is our strength" means "their" strength, not yours. Diversity means your weakness, and the unchecked riots and looting are proof of it.
Christians 244 years ago took up arms against "tyrants" like these and called it "obedience to God".
I can't imagine finding one such person among us today. And you certainly won't find one among the paid mercenaries, the cops. They're just trying to make it to full retirement like everybody else.
Instead, most Christians have become Spengler's "credulous" type of communist, who:
"obsessed by doctrine or feminine sentimentality, remote from and hostile to the world, condemns the wealth of the wicked who prosper and also, at times, the poverty of the good who do not prosper. This lands him either in vague Utopias or throws him back upon asceticism, the monastic life, Bohemia, or vagabondism, which proclaims the futility of all economic effort".
On obsession with doctrine think First Things Magazine, think Sojourners, Christianity Today, and the Patheos crowd for the feminine sentimentalists and wealth condemners, think the Prosperity Gospel movement and the charismatic Dominionists for the critics of the Christianity which is content with little, think Rod Dreher's Benedict Option or the survivalists for the separatists, and also the libertarians who "go Galt", accountable to no one but themselves. Representative all.
Perhaps the only Christians who think in robust opposition to the communists are the followers of Adrian Vermeule who envision a once and future Roman Catholic authoritarianism from North to South America with a heavily Spanish content. In other words, when white supremacy fails, replace it with . . . not black.
"To put through the ideal requires
dictatorship, reign of terror, armed force, the inequality of a system
of masters and slaves, men in command and men in obedience - in short:
Moscow".
The answer to Bolshevism from the foremost grandmothers of Bolshevism is to double down on the Bolshevism. Pre-modern Europe was just a dress rehearsal.
I'm sure Black Lives Matter will be thrilled.
Monday, June 22, 2020
Today the US registered 120,036 deaths from COVID-19 at the Johns Hopkins University dashboard
Here's the progression:
50k 4/24
60k 4/29 5 days
70k 5/5 6 days
80k 5/11 6 days
90k 5/18 7 days
100k 5/27 9 days
110k 6/7 11 days
120k 6/22 15 days.
Stay-at-home orders, growth of clinical expertise, and increased mask-wearing among other things have all made a huge impact on the growth of deaths.
New daily deaths hit 275 on Sunday, which was last lower way back on March 25, with 270.
It looks like it will take something like another 20 days to add another 10k deaths, so 130k by roughly July 15. On May 18 I projected 155k by then, so obviously there's been a big slow down since late May when the projected 100k deaths projected was met.
That's the good news.
The bad news is case counts nationally are rising again after bottoming on May 11. New daily cases were so high on June 20 that you had to go back to May 1 to find a higher single day. In key states in the South this increase is not attributable to increased testing, especially in Florida where testing has declined and in other states where hospitalization increases are outstripping testing increases. Texas, Arizona, California and the Carolinas are all pointed to as examples.
Expect death counts to pick up again starting roughly July 15 due to the mid-June turn higher in cases. It takes about 28 days from classification as a case to classification as a death, according to the modeling.
Death is a lagging indicator. Low deaths today are the result of good action taken many yesterdays ago.
Stay-at-home orders, growth of clinical expertise, and increased mask-wearing among other things have all made a huge impact on the growth of deaths.
New daily deaths hit 275 on Sunday, which was last lower way back on March 25, with 270.
It looks like it will take something like another 20 days to add another 10k deaths, so 130k by roughly July 15. On May 18 I projected 155k by then, so obviously there's been a big slow down since late May when the projected 100k deaths projected was met.
That's the good news.
The bad news is case counts nationally are rising again after bottoming on May 11. New daily cases were so high on June 20 that you had to go back to May 1 to find a higher single day. In key states in the South this increase is not attributable to increased testing, especially in Florida where testing has declined and in other states where hospitalization increases are outstripping testing increases. Texas, Arizona, California and the Carolinas are all pointed to as examples.
Expect death counts to pick up again starting roughly July 15 due to the mid-June turn higher in cases. It takes about 28 days from classification as a case to classification as a death, according to the modeling.
Death is a lagging indicator. Low deaths today are the result of good action taken many yesterdays ago.
Sunday, June 21, 2020
Saturday, June 20, 2020
Friday, June 19, 2020
As usual Rush Limbaugh is full of it: He says Lincoln ran an anti-slavery campaign for the presidency
The Republicans of 1860 pledged not to interfere with slavery in the states, but opposed its expansion into the territories. Lincoln's moderation on the issue upset abolitionists.
I check in for 5 minutes just to see what he's on about, and he gets something wrong. Every. Damn. Time.
Update with chapter and verse:
"The Republican Party was actually founded in opposition to slavery, and Abraham Lincoln was the Republican Party’s president. He ran on an anti-slavery agenda, including some other things. The Civil War was waged under his leadership and presidency, and 500,000 Americans lost their lives (mostly white) to end slavery".
Here.
Rush also gets the casualties wrong. Admittedly there is variation in estimates, but 500,000 isn't one of them.
"For 110 years, the numbers stood as gospel: 618,222 men died in the Civil War, 360,222 from the North and 258,000 from the South — by far the greatest toll of any war in American history.
But new research shows that the numbers were far too low.
By combing through newly digitized census data from the 19th century, J. David Hacker, a demographic historian from Binghamton University in New York, has recalculated the death toll and increased it by more than 20 percent — to 750,000".
More.
Update with chapter and verse:
"The Republican Party was actually founded in opposition to slavery, and Abraham Lincoln was the Republican Party’s president. He ran on an anti-slavery agenda, including some other things. The Civil War was waged under his leadership and presidency, and 500,000 Americans lost their lives (mostly white) to end slavery".
Here.
Rush also gets the casualties wrong. Admittedly there is variation in estimates, but 500,000 isn't one of them.
"For 110 years, the numbers stood as gospel: 618,222 men died in the Civil War, 360,222 from the North and 258,000 from the South — by far the greatest toll of any war in American history.
But new research shows that the numbers were far too low.
By combing through newly digitized census data from the 19th century, J. David Hacker, a demographic historian from Binghamton University in New York, has recalculated the death toll and increased it by more than 20 percent — to 750,000".
More.
Thursday, June 18, 2020
Tuesday, June 16, 2020
Cheap widely available steroid confirmed to reduce COVID-19 deaths by 33% among patients on ventilators
"Results of trials announced on Tuesday showed dexamethasone, which is used to reduce inflammation in other diseases, reduced death rates by around a third among the most severely ill Covid-19 patients admitted to hospital".
Sunday, June 14, 2020
Friday, June 12, 2020
The best thing about this Media Matters attack on Glenn Beck from 2010 is the line it draws from King through Sharpton to BLM
'In fact, Sharpton accurately reflected the sentiments of King, who advocated for the “radical redistribution of economic power.” ...
'[A]uthor Nick Kotz writes that during a 1968 trip to Mississippi, King stated: “It didn't cost the nation one penny to integrate lunch counters” and "[i]t didn't cost the nation one penny to guarantee the right to vote." However, he concluded that “now, we are dealing with issues that cannot be solved without the nation spending billions of dollars -- and undergoing a radical redistribution of economic power.”'
King was a commie from the beginning. Beck just wants to pretend otherwise, like many Republican squishes do. It's whitey pretending things aren't that bad.
Sharpton, like King, is a true believer, if not nearly as intelligent: “the dream was not to put one black family in the White House. The dream was to make everything equal in everybody's house.”
Now the thugs of Black Lives Matter make this the number one demand for economic justice:
"Redistribution of wealth through a 'progressive restructuring of tax codes at the local, state, and federal levels.'"
They are out in your streets trying to make that happen.
What are you going to do about it?
Thursday, June 11, 2020
Conservatism would keep military base names, Senate Republicans cave to Crockagawea by voice vote
Spineless, useless cowards, except for a couple:
"Sen. Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, and Cotton didn't support the amendment".
More.
Wednesday, June 10, 2020
Counterprotesters lose jobs because they shouted George Floyd should have complied with the police
Re-enacting the knee on the neck didn't help.
#MeToo hysteria has been replaced by #RacismReckoning hysteria.
Story and video here.
Hysterical Americans, hysterical military
Here:
THE NAVY ON TUESDAY announced it would prohibit the Confederate battle flag from all its military installations, following the lead of the Marine Corps which last week began implementing a ban on its troops displaying the flag in any form. ...
The top officer for the Marine Corps, which is a part of the Navy Department, issued an order in April to all Marines that would prohibit on its bases any rendering of the Confederate battle flag, including on T-shirts, mugs or bumper stickers.
"Anything that divides us, anything that threatens team cohesion, must be addressed head-on," Berger wrote in a message to all Marines at that time.
In a statement last week detailing that order, now in effect, Berger said, "Current events are a stark reminder that it is not enough for us to remove symbols that cause division – rather, we also must strive to eliminate division itself." ...
The Army on Monday broke from its prior hard line and said it would consider renaming 10 bases currently named for Confederate generals, including Fort Bragg in North Carolina and Fort A.P. Hill in Virginia. ...
Gen. Charles Brown, the incoming Air Force chief of staff, said in an emotional video message earlier this week, "I'm thinking about how full I am with emotion ...
The crime and justice data you don't want to hear
Here:
"If a certain group is committing more crimes, more violent crimes, and law enforcement's having to come into more contact with them, that number is going to be higher. Who in the world in their right mind would think that our shootings should be right along the U.S. Census lines? That's insanity.
"All of the research says we're shooting African-Americans about 24% less than we probably ought to be, based on the crimes being committed."
Yates expressed displeasure with the largely peaceful protests that have been taking place in big cities and small towns all over the country since Floyd's killing on May 25.
"The officer was arrested the next day. They were prosecuted, they were fired. What are you doing? What do you mean, 'justice?' Justice at this point has been done," Yates said. "Well, then it turned into systematic racism, systematic police brutality.
Monday, June 8, 2020
In Michigan at least, there was no spike in COVID-19 cases due to Memorial Day
The New York Times data for Michigan at us-covid-tracker dot com is anomalous. It adds "probable cases" data starting Jun 5 which the State of Michigan COVID-19 Dashboard does not.
Michigan's data shows no up-trend to cases at all, and in fact shows new daily cases trending lower over the period.
"The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services reported 284 new cases of COVID-19 Monday, bringing the total to 58,525 [both data points are for Fri 6/5/20]. The state also started reporting probable cases; there are 4,928 cases that are not confirmed yet."
More.
Sunday, June 7, 2020
The bad news is exactly two weeks after Fri May 22, the kickoff to the Memorial Day holiday weekend, new daily COVID-19 cases are making records in 9 states and Puerto Rico
Michigan had an astounding 4,529 new daily cases added on Fri Jun 5, 2020.
US COVID-19 deaths now total 110,028 in the Johns Hopkins University data
So, 10 days after hitting 100,000 instead of 9 days going from 90k to 100k deaths. Stay-at-home orders slowed down the rate at which deaths piled up.
Saturday, June 6, 2020
Climate Update for KGRR May 2020
Climate Update for KGRR May 2020
Max temp 90, Mean 86
Min temp 26, Mean 32
Av temp 56.7, Mean 57.9
Rain 4.22, Mean 3.48
Snow trace, Mean 0.2
HDD 298, Mean 252, Season 6240, Mean 6651, anomaly -411, season to date 6.17% milder than mean and currently ranks only 18th in the list of mildest winters
CDD 50, Mean 39, Season 50, Mean 45
Friday, June 5, 2020
American Shit Show and Antifa
The right wing wants everything opened up right now, yesterday even, no masks, no restrictions.
They are fools.
The left wing wants gradual opening with social distancing, masks, etc., except in protests. By all means go ahead and protest, they say, because it is more important! Many in the medical community have made the mistake of taking this position.
They are hypocrites.
George W. Bush used to maintain, probably still does, that the Muslim fundamentalists who attacked us on 9/11 attacked us because of our freedoms. They never succeeded for the most part. They managed to make us a surveillance society, it is true, and increasingly a security state, but life has been pretty much normal because we took the battle over there, at enormous expense to ourselves and everyone involved.
Islamic fundamentalism has been no match for freedom. It doesn't really know how to exploit freedom to destroy it, being at its root itself unfree. It has had to resort to a kind of Fabianism instead, exploiting Western openess to emigrate to Western countries and reproduce there in the hope of eventually outnumbering us. They risk assimilating in the process, however.
But really to destroy freedom outright you need freedom to the max . . . you need anarchy!
In other words, you need a virus! The virus is totally free! It spreads just like that, and you can hardly stop it. Just look at how we have tried.
The virus has been everything Antifa only wished it could be. And Antifa has nothing on it. One look at Antifa and people recoil. Hell, Antifa recoils at itself. It disguises itself and skulks around in packs, and runs home to mommy after its violent stunts.
But the virus is totally free. It's everywhere, it's invisible and it's everything Antifa only wishes it could be. For the virus there are already no borders, no walls, no USA at all. It goes wherever it likes, whenever it likes, and doesn't need a disguise, because it looks just like you, just like me.
The only thing more powerful than an anarchic virus is a self-ordered host, a person who chooses not to be a victim or a spreader, a person fully in control of himself, who can say no to himself.
Such a person is truly the most free person there is. The virus stops there, and only there.
The only thing more powerful than an anarchic virus is a self-ordered host, a person who chooses not to be a victim or a spreader, a person fully in control of himself, who can say no to himself.
Such a person is truly the most free person there is. The virus stops there, and only there.
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
Rush Limbaugh the idiot: Sweden Proves the Lockdown Was Unnecessary
"RUSH: This guy, Neil Ferguson's
predictions at the outset said 90,000 people in Sweden would die because
they weren't gonna lock down, and 4,000 people died."
Rush Limbaugh's standard of expert opinion is always the guy who gets it wrong the worst.
That's called cherry picking, which is what idiots do.
Let's try to do it the right way.
Sweden deaths to date (no lockdown): 4,542 (18th in the world).
Deaths among fellow Nordics to date (with lockdowns):
Norway: 237
Finland: 321
Denmark: 580.
Sweden also has nearly 41,000 cases and rising. Daily new cases there are near record highs. Sweden is still feeding the beast. The other Nordics have 75% fewer total cases and even fewer than that. The other Nordics are doing enormously better than Sweden.
19 times better, 14 times better, 8 times better.
Rush can pretend this is over all he wants. This isn't over by a longshot, there or anywhere else, until new cases come down and fall to zero.
Sweden's fatality rate is more than twice as high as America's at 11%+. Expect 4,000 more deaths in Sweden at the minimum.
Rush Limbaugh's standard of expert opinion is always the guy who gets it wrong the worst.
That's called cherry picking, which is what idiots do.
Let's try to do it the right way.
Sweden deaths to date (no lockdown): 4,542 (18th in the world).
Deaths among fellow Nordics to date (with lockdowns):
Norway: 237
Finland: 321
Denmark: 580.
Sweden also has nearly 41,000 cases and rising. Daily new cases there are near record highs. Sweden is still feeding the beast. The other Nordics have 75% fewer total cases and even fewer than that. The other Nordics are doing enormously better than Sweden.
19 times better, 14 times better, 8 times better.
Rush can pretend this is over all he wants. This isn't over by a longshot, there or anywhere else, until new cases come down and fall to zero.
Sweden's fatality rate is more than twice as high as America's at 11%+. Expect 4,000 more deaths in Sweden at the minimum.
Tuesday, June 2, 2020
Dumb ass Rush Limbaugh says "coronavirus has vanished as an issue"
New cases in the last week: 150,557
Average new cases daily in the last week: 21,508
Expected new cases in the next 30 days at current level of spread: 645,240
Total current active cases: 1.138 million
Deaths expected from current active cases at 5.7%: 64,866
Deaths expected from projected new cases added in next month: 36,778
In other words, add another 102,000 deaths to the current 105,000 . . . and then add some more, and some more, and some more.
Rioting is just a temporary little diversion from this United States of Shit Show under Trump.
Hey Rush Limbaugh, you dumb ass, they will never prove the cop intended to kill Floyd, who died of cardiopulmonary arrest while under the influence of fentanyl
Maybe you've heard of it?
You are an irresponsible jerk trying to queer the jury so that cop can't get a fair trial.
You are not on the side of law and order.
Rush Limbaugh yesterday turned his program into a shit show, called for George Floyd cop to be charged with first degree murder
Mr. COVID IS JUST A COLD DON'T SHUT THE COUNTRY OVER IT intervenes in a local police case and uses his damn microphone to enlist the whole country in calling for the cop to be charged with first degree murder.
Mr. Virtue Signaling, I say. Mr. I'm gonna die soon better burnish my reputation.
Now the medical examiner says Floyd died of cardiopulmonary arrest and was intoxicated with fentanyl.
And during the program Rush said if what happened to Floyd had happened to a white man we probably never would have heard about it.
Well, it did happen to a white man, and we didn't hear about it until now, not because no one cared, but because the case was deliberately kept from the public.
But as usual Rush flaps those gums before looking into anything too deeply. He's a lazy ass. Always has been. Just like Trump.
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