The Market Was Already Overvalued In October 2011, And It Still Is

So says Robert P. Seawright, here, and here:

[T]he market remains overvalued and, if anything, somewhat more overvalued than it was last October. As I have been saying for a long time ... – we are (since 2000) in the throes of a secular bear market, subject to strong cyclical swings in either direction. I continue to encourage investors to be skeptical, cautious, and defensive yet opportunistic. I suggest that they look to take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves while carefully managing and mitigating risk, which should remain their top priority.

Seawright presents the case for overvaluation using a variety of metrics, not the least important of which is the Shiller p/e. Long term investors remain skeptical of the present rally based on these metrics.

Nevertheless, the SP500 shot up over 100 points from 1099 between October 3-20, 2011, and is again above 1400 today, a nominal gain of over 27 percent in less than a year. That's a pretty long sucker rally.

In Passive v. Active Management, Vanguard Is The Winner And Still Champion

So says Robert P. Seawright, here:

[O]ne of every three dollars invested in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds through the first four months of ... 2012 has gone to Vanguard, according to Morningstar Inc. (and as reported by Investment News).  Investment in Vanguard so far this year is roughly $65 billion, nearly four times more than the next closest mutual fund company – PIMCO.  In ETFs, year-to-date through the end of April, Vanguard had gathered $21.6 billion, while BlackRock’s iShares collected $13.3 billion and State Street added $7.2 billion. As always, Vanguard focuses on passively managed index funds and ETFs.