The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -3.7 percent on April 1, down from -2.8 percent on March 28

Reported here.

 

After 38 years, it's time to junk the bedrock idea undergirding conservative economic philosophy of low taxes because IT'S NOT TRUE

 AXIOS today, here:

A bedrock idea of conservative economic philosophy is [the] idea that low taxes fuel economic growth. 

This idea is simply false, and history proves it.

We've had 38 years since the Reagan Tax Reform Act of 1986 to prove it correct and it's not.

Real GDP 1986-2024 has grown at a compound annual rate of 2.586%, a rate 29% worse than for the same length of time before that when taxes were much higher.

Real GDP 1948-1986 grew at a compound annual rate of 3.635%.

Tax reform is a complicated topic, the political subject of the AXIOS article.

I can simplify it for you: Tax like we used to in the immediate post-war.

Nominal marginal rates in 1957 (dollars are NOT adjusted for inflation in the tables), the height of the Baby Boom, went from 20% to 91%.

The set up didn't stop people from marrying, having children, and buying houses, and it didn't stop economic growth, because it forced rich people to avoid these confiscatory marginal rates by investing their money domestically to earn income at lower rates of capital taxation.

Ronald Reagan's tax reform was a license to invest elsewhere, and we're all poorer for it. 

If Democrats had any brains they would propose richly rewarding domestic investment using the tax code and severely punishing foreign investment. They could start by raising top marginal tax rates on ordinary income and offering much lower long term capital gains tax rates de-linked from ordinary income but only for domestic investment.

The country desperately needs much better economic growth, and the libertarian-Republican consensus is not providing it.

 

 

Investment abroad eclipsed investment at home for the first time in 1993 and is 200% of domestic today

The March 28, 2025 GDPNow forecast for 1Q2025 GDP falls sharply to -2.8%

 

Real GDP update for Mar 27, 2025

 The third report for real GDP for 4Q2024 and full year 2024 was released today here.

The annual rate of economic growth in 4Q was 2.4%, and 2.8% for 2024.

But here's the big picture.

Real GDP for the 79 years 1929-2008 grew at a compound annual rate of 3.405%.

Real GDP for the 16 years 2008-2024 grew at a compound annual rate of 2.074%, a rate 39% lower.

We have not had, and do not now have, the greatest economy ever at any point since the Great Recession.

 

 

Atlanta Fed 1Q2025 GDP Now Model update: -1.8%

Skippin' along down there.

 

Atlanta Fed GDP Now Model predicts -2.1% real GDP for 1Q2025 in today's update

 Here.

This is the 10th of 19 estimates scheduled through the end of April for 1Q.

This is the 4th negative estimate.

Trump not only wants to move the goalposts for getting the costs of his tax cuts to $0, but also for calculating GDP

 Why, is there something bad on the horizon with GDP lol?

These people belong in jail, not in the White House.

 Trump official floats new approach on GDP, as economy is poised to slow sharply

... Although countries’ approaches to economic measurement can vary slightly, most adhere to a recommended framework by the United Nations’ System of National Accounts. The group makes periodic adjustments to account for new methodologies and circumstances, and is set to do so this year. But it would be highly unconventional for the United States to suddenly strike out on its own, said Diane Coyle, a professor at Cambridge University and author of “GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History.” ...