On average 45% of the voting age population won't vote in Election 2020, and who can blame them?

 

NYT article suggests politics to blame for growing high anxiety, but declining turnouts for elections say otherwise

While election turnout soared during the 2008 financial crisis, overall the trend is down in the post-war, and flat since 1968. People care and don't care about politics about as much as they ever have. 

Here:

The political mess has been “a topic of conversation and a source of anxiety in nearly every clinical case that I have worked with since the presidential election,” said Robert Duff, a psychologist in California. He wrote a 2014 book, “Hardcore Self-Help,” whose subtitle proposes to conquer anxiety in the coarse language that has also defined a generation.

The turnout for Hillary's inauguration: 0

Election 2016 turnout update in the 14 largest states by population compared to 2008, one week later: Hillary underperforms Obama by 1.654 million votes in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania

CA: -2.9 million

TX: +0.8m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 340,000 votes but still lost to Trump)

FL: +1.1m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 219,000 votes but still lost to Trump)

NY: -0.5m

IL: flat

PA: +0.02m/flat (Hillary fails to get 424,000 Obama voters from 2008)

OH: -0.34m (Hillary fails to get 623,000 Obama voters from 2008)

GA: +0.2m Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 33,000 votes but still lost to Trump)

NC: +0.4m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 21,000 votes but still lost to Trump)

MI: -0.22m (Hillary fails to get 607,000 Obama voters from 2008)

NJ: -0.1m

VA: +0.3m

WA: -0.1m

AZ: +0.2m (Hillary outperformed Obama 2008 by 89,000 votes but still lost to Trump)

Total turnout down in six states: 4.16 million

Total turnout up in seven states: 3.02 million

Turnout net down: 1.14 million

Hillary states: turnout down 3.3 million

Trump states: turnout up 2.16 million

Total Hillary outperform Obama, still loses in five states:   702,000 votes

Total Hillary underperform Obama, loses in three states: 1,654,000 votes 

   

Hey Ann Coulter: Republicans lost only 2 of 25 US Senate races because 4.1 million Democrats didn't turnout in 2016, 4.8 million voted for somebody else

Turnout 2008: 131.5 million

Turnout 2016: 127.4 million

Obama 2008: 69.5 million

Hillary 2016: 60.6 million

Trump romps in West Virginia primary even after suppressing the vote and Cruz suspends, turnout 54% higher than 2008, 62% higher than 2012

Republican presidential primary turnout in Indiana up 175% over 2008: 1.1 million in 2016 (Trump), 0.6 million in 2012 (Romney), 0.4 million in 2008 (McCain)

Indiana GOP primary 2016

Indiana GOP primary 2012

Indiana GOP primary 2008

Presidential turnout since 1972: Increased participation favors Democrats, and maybe the anti-Bush former Democrat named Donald Trump

Presidential turnout since 1972:

Average percent of the voting age population: 53%

Average percent of the voting age population when Republicans win: 53% (average)

Average percent of the voting age population when Democrats win: 54% (1 point above average)

Average percent of the registered voters: 74%

Average percent of the registered voters when Republicans win: 73.9% (0.1 point below average)

Average percent of the registered voters when Democrats win: 72.9% (1.1 points below average)

Republican wins in elections most like 2016:

Average percent of the voting age population in 1980, 1988, 2000: 51.1% (1.9 points below average)

Average percent of the registered voters in 1980, 1988, 2000: 72% (2.0 points below average)

Democrat wins in elections most like 2016:

Average percent of the voting age population in 1976, 1992, 2008: 55.7% (2.7 points above average)

Average percent of the registered voters in 1976, 1992, 2008: 76.7% (2.7 points above average) 

Republican turnout in 2016 New York presidential primary dwarfs 2012 by 350% and 2008 by 28%

857,250 turned out yesterday in New York's Republican presidential primary with 98% of the vote counted.

2008

2012

Republican primary turnout in 2016 up 52% from 2008 in OH, IL, FL, MO and NC, Democrat enthusiasm in 2008 still beats by 9%

2008: 5.05 million

2016: 7.66 million

In the five states mentioned Republicans are voting in numbers 17.5% higher than Democrats in 2016.

In 2008 Democrats had all the enthusiasm: Democrats turned out in numbers 65% higher than Republicans.

Democrat turnout in these states in 2008 still beats Republican turnout in 2016 by 9%.

Democrat primary turnout down 22% overall from 2008 in OH, IL, FL, MO and NC combined

2008: 8.35 million

2016: 6.52 million

Florida Republican Primary 2016 turnout up big as homeboys Trump and Rubio duke it out

Democrat turnout fell slightly from 1.75 million in 2008 to 1.66 million in 2016, about 5%.

Florida's closed Republican primary saw 2016 turnout rise to 2.27 million from 1.95 million in 2008 and 1.7 million in 2012, up 16% and 34% respectively.

Illinois Primary 2016 turnout up 53% among Republicans, unchanged among Democrats

Democrat turnout in the primary in 2016 was about the same as in 2008: 1.97 million v 2 million.

Republican turnout was considerably higher in 2016 over prior years. In both 2008 and 2012 Republicans turned out 0.9 million voters, but this year it's up to 1.38 million, 53% higher.

The reason?

Well it ain't Ted Cruz.

Trump drives Republican turnout 52% above 2008, 32% above 2012 in Michigan primary

Michigan Republican primary 2008: 869,169 votes cast (Romney: 338,316)

Michigan Republican primary 2012: 996,499 (Romney: 409,522)

Michigan Republican primary 2016: 1,318,297 (99% reporting, Trump: 481,296)

Turnout in Republican primaries is nearly 49% higher than in Democrat contests to date

Popular votes for Republicans are running at 10.1 million vs. 6.8 million for Democrats, unless you count Rubio and Kasich as Democrats, in which case Democrats are winning by 35%.

Unify the party you poster boys for prophylactics.

South Carolina primary turnout up 21.1% over 2012

Reported here.

730,000 in 2016 v 603,000 in 2012.

Trump received 44.6% more votes than second place finisher Rubio, or 1.45 votes to every vote for Rubio despite Gov. Nikki Haley's endorsement.

Voter turnout nationally in 2014 at 36.6% vs. 40.9% in 2010

Reported here.