CNBC: Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations
Wholesale prices nudged higher in October, though largely in line
with expectations and mostly consistent with the Federal Reserve cutting
interest rates again in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported Thursday.
The producer price index,
which measures what producers get for their products, increased a
seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, up one-tenth of a percentage
point from September though matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast.
On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more
than September and also matching expectations. The 12-month rate was at
3.1%.
"Largely in line" and "mostly consistent" lol. Both 12-month measures were higher than the consensus expected, which was 2.3% for headline and 3% for core. The year over year measures are the most important anyway, especially core.
Why lie about it?
CNN: Wholesale inflation heated up again last month, reversing recent progress
US wholesale inflation picked up more than expected in
October, indicating that some price pressures persist at the producer
level.
The Producer Price Index, a measurement of average price
changes seen by producers and manufacturers, rose 0.2% on a monthly
basis and 2.4% for the 12 months ended in October, marking an
acceleration from September, when prices ticked up 0.1% for the month
and grew 1.9% annually, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data
released Thursday. ...
FactSet consensus forecasts called for a 0.2% monthly gain and for the annual rate to heat up to 2.3%.
Excluding food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile,
core PPI rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, marking an acceleration from
0.2% in September. Annually, core PPI heated up from 2.9% to 3.1%, the
largest increase since June. Economists projected a 0.2% monthly gain
and a 3% annual rate.
Obviously not all prediction models were the same. FactSet projected a 0.2% monthly gain for core vs. 0.3% for core shown above by FXStreet.
But again, the year over year is up MORE THAN EXPECTED for BOTH measures in most models. CNN mentions it, CNBC does not.
You can clearly observe that overall, headline wholesale prices year over year have been trending higher since June 2023. That bottom came out in July 2023, when the Fed last hiked the interest rate in the current cycle and then paused for good.
That was a big mistake.
The rise in wholesale prices since then is as good an indicator as any that higher inflation is deeply embedded in the economy and that the Fed stopped hiking too soon. Arguably core prices sent the same signal, but not starting until after December 2023.
Paying attention to core could explain the Fed's mistake, but for the fact that if the Fed were truly listening to this information, it wouldn't have then cut by 50 basis points in September 2024. I mean, c'mon man.
Jay Powell represents the interests of the bankers and Wall Street, for whom inflation is a good thing because it is the screen behind which the pipeline from prices to profits gets juiced.
He does not represent the people.
Who appointed that guy anyway?!
