The unemployment rate at 4.6% in November 2025 can't be right with Initial Claims for Unemployment so low, averaging 223k.
The January to September averages were 4.2% unemployment with 222k initial claims.
Compare:
2024: 4.0% at 221k
2023: 3.6% at 221k
2022: 3.6% at 215k
2019: 3.7% at 217k
2018: 3.9% at 220k.
Household Survey response rates, from which we get the unemployment rate, have plunged since the pandemic, from above 80% before COVID to below 70% now.
As a consequence 2025 and 2024 look suspiciously higher than they probably are when compared with prior years.
Initial claims for unemployment is more certain as a measurement because the data is aggregated from state unemployment agencies which pay actual people who make actual claims, not people who answer (or don't answer) a poll.
With claims still historically low, the Fed is making a big mistake in reducing interest rates because it thinks employment is softening based on the Household Survey.
They risk reigniting inflation.
