Showing posts with label COVID-19 2026. Show all posts
Showing posts with label COVID-19 2026. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

The New York Times on the global economy had me and then it lost me

Because it, like too many commentators, uses an obsolete dollar index in DXY, which measures dollar strength or weakness relative to just SIX currencies: EUR, JPY (!), GBP (!), CAD (!), SEK (!), CHF (!).
 
The Federal Reserve has developed broader indices weighted to the countries the U.S. trades with the most.
 
U.S. GDP is $31.1 trillion. 
EURO ZONE GDP: $16.5 trillion.
Japan: $4.3 trillion.
Great Britain: $3.6 trillion.
Canada: $2.3 trillion.
Sweden: $0.6 trillion.
Switzerland: $1 trillion.
Global GDP: $117 trillion.

 

 
 ... It’s as if cars, instead of slowing down at a flashing yellow light as expected, started speeding up. ...
 
The traditional connection between the American economy’s performance and the value of the dollar has also been snapped. Uncertainty tends to increase the dollar’s value compared with other currencies as investors seek a safe haven in risky times. But the dollar has sunk to its lowest level in years. ...
 
Analysts backed down on their predictions that Mr. Trump’s tariff blitz last spring would cause higher prices ... 

 

Even by DXY standards, the dollar is not weak at 97, well within its long term average range between 95 and 105.
 
And The New York Times is ignoring that wholesale prices increased at a higher rate in 2025 than in either 2024 or 2023. 
 
 
Traffic fatalities surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research highlights the fact that disadvantaged communities bore the brunt of the increase and calls for holistic solutions to promote equitable access to safe transportation.

 

 


Saturday, January 10, 2026

Trump's mortgage bond proposal imitates his own "stupid" Jerome Powell on the financing side to reduce interest rates, which is what helped make homes 50% more unaffordable in the first place

 


The perfect storm of government MBS purchases and sub-3% mortgages through ZIRP in 2021 combined to rocket housing values by 50%.

Housing reached record low affordability a year later, falling to 17.22%.

Yeah, let's do more of that.

Back in the 1990s, before Bill Clinton and the Uniparty got a hold of it and turned it into a commodity, housing was stable and affordable as median income bought 25% of a home. 

Trump hasn't gotta clue what to do.

 

 Mortgage rates drop to lowest level in nearly 3 years as Trump orders buying of $200 billion in mortgage bonds

... In the first two months of the Covid pandemic, as markets reeled, the Federal Reserve purchased $580 billion in agency MBS. It then continued buying more throughout the year. From March 2020 through June 2021, the Federal Reserve increased its agency MBS holdings from $1.4 trillion to $2.3 trillion, according to the Dallas Fed.

The Federal Reserve also lowered its own lending rate to zero. The combination brought the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage to record lows, hitting just 2.75% at the start of 2021, according to Mortgage News Daily. ...

... But Zelman also points out that in the broader home market it’s not just the mortgage rate, but overall affordability that is keeping buyers sidelined. Consumers are stretched, and home prices are close to 50% higher than they were pre-pandemic, ironically because of those record-low mortgage rates brought on by MBS purchases. ...