You have to go back 35 Julys to find pre-pandemic core pce inflation in July as high as it is in July 2026

3.344% year over year.

 

Yeah, well, the reports were "benign" but the facts weren't

 This is the problem with fake economic news, which isn't meant to inform. It's meant to shape, just like fake polls.

It's disinformation, meant to blunt the bad news every time its ugly head pops up to keep stock markets from falling.

Everybody's talking the stock market book, because everything else sucks. They're afraid that speaking the truth would be all it takes to destroy confidence in the economy, when everyone who must experience the economy on the street knows it is not booming.  

What rising Treasury yields are telling us 

... The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond ended the week at 5.26%, the highest since June 2007, despite benign reports on consumer and wholesale price inflation. (This is unusual, as long-term yields tend to move lower when inflation becomes less of a worry.) ...

Core wholesale prices have been increasing at an average monthly rate of 4.24% in 2026. Peak before the pandemic was 2.99% in August 2011. 

Core consumer inflation averaged 2.62% in 1H2026. Before 2021 there wasn't a reading that high since 2H2006 at 2.72%. Twenty years ago.

The bond market isn't blind to the facts like these reporters are, who have their heads in the sand. 

Yields are rising because of persistent inflation. 

The lunatic whom Democrats want to be governor in Wisconsin, Executive Chef (!) Francesca Hong of the Madison chapter of DSA, wants to cancel "colonialist" Thanksgiving lol

But she has canceled the tweet instead lol.

Chef Francesca oddly finds Culvers acceptable fare, except when there are too many old white people in there.

If she sounds a little crazy, she admits she was diagnosed bipolar in 2006-2007 when she was 18.

She went to the university but dropped out in 2009 and got a job as a dishwasher. 

She rose from dishwasher to "executive chef" at the restaurant with lightning speed, between 2009 and 2011, and was so good at it that that restaurant closed in 2016.

She and her husband then started their own restaurant. 

But evidently she found it easier to succeed as a radical politician from Madison from 2020 than in the restaurant business and in marriage.

Apparently both their restaurant and their marriage were casualties of the pandemic.

Just think of the conflagration she can make out of Wisconsin. 

 

2Q2026 Real GDP, first estimate, came in at a measly 1.5% today

 The last time a quarterly real gdp figure came in close to 10%, outside the grotesquely distorted pandemic hysteria, was in 2Q1983 at 9.4%.

It's been all down hill since then. 

Our T.S. Eliot Hollow Man Economy continues to die, not with a bang but a whimper.

The compound annual growth rates show this:

2Q1947-2Q1984: 3.64%

2Q1984-2Q2017: 2.67%

2Q2017-2Q2026: 2.46%.

The era inaugurated by Trump underperforms the era inaugurated by Reagan by 7.9%, which in its turn underperformed the post-war era by 26.6%.

The Trump era underperforms the post-war by 32.4%.

They have no idea how to make America great again.

They are fools, fops, idiots, and sots, stuffed with chaff, straw, and feathers. 

  

Haley Stevens after debate with Abdul El-Sayed: I’m also not a millionaire like Abdul is, he won’t release his tax returns

 

 It's always great to see the pretensions of progressives skewered.

Democratic Senate candidates sling mud in post-debate spin room 

 ... “Standing up for Michiganders when their jobs were on the line during the Great Recession, standing up for Michiganders when their jobs were on the line yet again during COVID and the COVID pandemic and securing our manufacturing supply chain. I work to get things done. I am not trying to be a celebrity or famous or to sell a book or to push a podcast. I’m also not a millionaire like Abdul is. I am a hard-working gal who rolls up my sleeves, fights like heck for Michigan and delivers for us.” ... 

 

Traitor Trump gives aid to the Axis of Evil by unlocking Iranian crude oil, 90% of which is normally purchased by the Chicoms

 U.S. issues sweeping Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions in revenue for Tehran

The U.S. has issued a sweeping rollback of sanctions on Iranian oil, allowing dollar-denominated trade for the first time in more than four decades ...

The U.S. Treasury on Monday issued a wide-ranging 60-day exemption allowing Iran to produce and sell crude oil, petrochemical and petroleum products in U.S. dollars through Aug. 21. ...

The move on Monday marks the most sweeping rollback of American oil sanctions against Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, reversing years of pressure designed to cripple Iran’s economy, and is expected to deliver billions in oil revenue for the Iranian regime. ...

U.S. President Donald Trump defended the lifting of the sanctions, saying on Monday that any oil profits were meant for Iran to purchase American agricultural goods, rather than rebuild its military. ...

“With dollar clearing now authorized, expect China to accelerate purchases aggressively,” said Maleki. Chinese buyers, in the past, have settled transactions through opaque channels to avoid secondary U.S. sanctions exposure. ...

He expects a rapid storage “top-off cycle” under which Chinese buyers could rush to replenish stockpiles before the exemption expires in August.

China currently purchases roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, with teapots accounting for the bulk of China’s imports. The country’s crude imports shrank by an unprecedented 4.8 million barrels per day (mbd) between February and May — a steeper drop than the 4 mbd decline seen during the depths of the pandemic in the second half of 2020, according to JPMorgan. ...

Iran will likely use this 60-day window to repair war-damaged oil facilities and lock in longer-term contracts with Chinese buyers, said Michael Feller, chief strategist at Geopolitical Strategy. “This will be a huge boost to Iran, both to its economy and its sense of victory.”  

 

Disgusting Trump is so desperate for oil he's now importing oil from the terrorist enemy to the United States, something we haven't done in quantity since the 1979 Iranian Revolution

 The max was 6k bpd in 2021 of petroleum and petroleum liquids, the equivalent of 2.2 million barrels, slightly more than one VLCC can carry.

What's next, imports from Russia?

 

 

 

Treasury Department authorizes Iranian oil sales through August 

 ... The authorization allows the import of Iranian oil and refined products into the U.S.

... The authorization allows the import of Iranian oil and refined products into the U.S. Payment can be made to Tehran in dollars. The license expires Aug. 21, unless it’s renewed. ...

 

Oil prices fall after U.S. authorizes Iranian crude sales

Trump actually started the ball rolling during the pandemic in 2020.

He bought some petroleum products from Iran in October 2020 after the collapse in oil demand crashed prices of WTI to -$37/barrel in April.

Biden made purchases in March 2021, January 2022, and in 2023 from August to October.

 

 

 

Big 3 salaried labor cuts of 19% return levels to pre-pandemic era

 Detroit automakers have cut more than 20,000 U.S. salaried jobs as AI threat looms

 

 

Birth dearth blamed on chaos and uncertainty produced by the Great Recession

 ... In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, however, sometimes referred to as the Great Recession, births in Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Finland declined, and then declined some more, even as their economies recovered throughout the 2010s. Little about those nations’ family policies had changed, and as far as anyone could tell, men were still doing their share of the dishes. The same downward trend held in the United States, where births have fallen by about 23 percent since 2007, despite high rates of immigration until last year. Births have also been declining in East Asian countries, even though governments in the region have thrown buckets of money at the problem. And in France, despite its longstanding pronatalist policies. 

... What unites these disparate cultures, policy environments and demographics, researchers are now realizing, is young people’s inescapable and crushing sense that the future is too uncertain for the lifelong commitment of parenthood. Call it the vibes theory of demographic decline.

... The two generations currently of childbearing age bear the psychological and financial scars of coming of age amid world-scale catastrophes: Older millennials entered the labor market during the Great Recession; many watched their parents lose their jobs or homes. Members of Gen Z, whose lives were upturned by the Covid-19 pandemic, now find themselves competing against A.I. for entry-level jobs and even prospective partners. The man running America seems single-mindedly devoted to chaos at home and abroad. ...

More. 

Trump II Virus Deja Vu: Does MV Hondius rhyme with Diamond Princess?

Rat virus panic hits Texas and Virginia as it's revealed passengers aboard hantavirus cruise returned to those states before outbreak was spotted

 ... A 70-year-old Dutch man was the first person to die on April 11 after experiencing days of severe illness, followed by his wife two days later.

... Six Americans disembarked MV Hondius on April 24 on the island of St Helena, 13 days following the first death on board, operator Oceanwide Expeditions revealed on Thursday. 

... Oceanwide Expeditions, the Netherlands-based cruise ship company, said Thursday that 30 passengers left the vessel at St. Helena. 

The company had not previously revealed publicly that dozens more people left the ship. 

The first hantavirus case on board of the vessel was not confirmed by authorities until May 2. ... 

 

 

Buffett Indicator in the news

 Wall Street on red alert as Warren Buffett’s favorite stock market gauge hits the worst reading EVER

... The so-called Buffett indicator divides the total value of all US stocks by the total economic output of the United States, delivering one simple number that sums up how investors are feeling at the moment.

Buffett said that a reading of 100 percent suggests markets are in balance - in other words, the stock market is worth about as much as the US economy produces in one year - while a lower figure means stocks are undervalued.

Right now, the index hit its highest reading ever - 232 percent - indicating that stocks are historically overvalued. ...

Right now, the indicator is well above its last two all-time highs: The 219 percent reading seen at the height of the 2021 pandemic stock market frenzy, and the 163 percent level at the 2000 peak of the dot com bubble. ...                                                                                                              

 

Using SPX tonight, instead of the Wilshire 5000 as Buffett does, we're at 224.8 vs. 1938-2019 mean level of 81!

The market has been obscenely overvalued way beyond the 1938-2019 experience for six consecutive years and counting, and investors keep keeping it that way by continuing to pour money into it. It won't unwind until they stop. And since they believe that the market goes only up, it will probably take a market-loathing mother of all economic disasters to change their minds and make them do so.

Meanwhile real return since August 2000 (139), the previous secular peak, is now 5.27% per annum through March 2026 (25 years, 7 months).

Real return from January 1975 to August 2000 (the previous 25 years, 7 months) was 11.19% per annum, 112% better because valuation was 61 in 1975 and falling.

Investing at high valuations by definition produces poorer results. Compare August 1965 (118) to August 2000 (139): 6.95% per annum real. 

(I need to update this chart for 2024 and 2025!)

 

 

Inflation, whether pandemic induced or war induced, has been berry berry good for hiding price increases to boost corporate profits

 

Corporate America Aims to Preserve Profit Streak During War in Iran:  Higher inflation is leading companies to raise prices without sacrificing margins

 

... Sonu Varghese, the global macro strategist at the Carson Group, a financial firm, said many of the companies he tracked viewed inflation pressures from “outside shocks,” such as this war, “as an opportunity to raise prices and boosts margins,” which can, in turn, raise profits.

“I think we’re actually going to get some margin expansion,” Mr. Varghese added. ...

 

The CDC has truncated its COVID-19 wastewater chart to begin in spring 2024 instead of allowing you to compare the current era with the pandemic era

 

screenshot mar 2, 2026

Relentless inflation is so boring: Core cpi inflation in Mar 2026 clocked in at 2.6% yoy, 1Q2026 at 2.5% was last this high in 2008 outside the COVID-19 eruption

 

Kevin Asshat says even one tanker is big

Hormuz strait oil traffic way down after ceasefire; Hassett says even one tanker is big

"... being mindful of the fact that if you get one of those big tankers through, that’s 2 million barrels. So that’s a huge chunk of what’s missing," he said.

Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil were transiting the strait per day. ...

Estimates of supply lost which I have seen today say 9 million barrels per day of supply have been lost, worse than the COVID shutdown.

  

Fed chair Jerome Powell didn't say the oil shock will be transitory, but he might as well have

 

 ... Powell said raising rates now could have negative effects on the economy later. He noted that Fed rate moves have a lagged impact on the economy, so tightening here wouldn’t help the inflationary impact of the Iran war.

“By the time the effects of a tightening in monetary policy take effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone, and you’re weighing on the economy at a time when it’s not appropriate. So the tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock,” he added. ...

More.

Mistaken yet again.

We have permanently higher prices across the board as a result of the COVID shock. 

Core cpi inflation still 2.45% year over year not seasonally adjusted, down from 2.50% yoy last month, Assembly of Experts expects higher next month

A little Iran humor for ya there. 

 Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in February, as expected

... The data predates the recent surge in oil prices tied to the war with Iran, meaning any impact from higher energy costs will likely show up in the months ahead. ...

Outside the pandemic, we were last higher than this in Sep 2008.

 

COVID-19 infection peaks in the U.S. overall have been trending steadily less severe since Jan 2024, with the last two only in the high, not the very high, range

The regional data taken individually is more erratic.

 

The New York Times on the global economy had me and then it lost me

Because it, like too many commentators, uses an obsolete dollar index in DXY, which measures dollar strength or weakness relative to just SIX currencies: EUR, JPY (!), GBP (!), CAD (!), SEK (!), CHF (!).

 

The Federal Reserve has developed broader indices weighted to the countries the U.S. trades with the most.

 

U.S. GDP is $31.1 trillion. 

EURO ZONE GDP: $16.5 trillion.

Japan: $4.3 trillion.

Great Britain: $3.6 trillion.

Canada: $2.3 trillion.

Sweden: $0.6 trillion.

Switzerland: $1 trillion.

Global GDP: $117 trillion.

 

 The Global Economy’s Warning Signals Are Broken

 

 ... It’s as if cars, instead of slowing down at a flashing yellow light as expected, started speeding up. ...

 

The traditional connection between the American economy’s performance and the value of the dollar has also been snapped. Uncertainty tends to increase the dollar’s value compared with other currencies as investors seek a safe haven in risky times. But the dollar has sunk to its lowest level in years. ...

 

Analysts backed down on their predictions that Mr. Trump’s tariff blitz last spring would cause higher prices ... 

 

Even by DXY standards, the dollar is not weak at 97, well within its long term average range between 95 and 105.

 

And The New York Times is ignoring that wholesale prices increased at a higher rate in 2025 than in either 2024 or 2023. 

 

Anyway, you know what happens when people ignore the flashing yellow:

 

Traffic fatalities surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research highlights the fact that disadvantaged communities bore the brunt of the increase and calls for holistic solutions to promote equitable access to safe transportation.

 

 

The wealth inequality of today's K-shaped economy goes back to the Reagan Revolution

Wealth inequality and the ‘K-shaped’ economy are more striking than ever, data shows

 

They take vacations and buy luxury goods. You struggle to pay for food, shelter, and transportation.

 

K is not OK.

 

... A key measure of wealth concentration called the Gini coefficient sits at 60-year highs, according to a report from U.S. Bank published earlier this month. ... The net worth of America’s top 1% hit a record share of nearly 32% in the third quarter of 2025, the Federal Reserve reported. By comparison, the bottom 50% cumulatively held 2.5% of overall net wealth.

 

The portion of U.S. GDP heading to workers in the form of compensation tumbled to its lowest level in its more than 75-year history, per data tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That means the average nonfarm business worker is seeing an increasingly small slice of an economy that has largely boomed over the last 15 years. ...

 

Total relative “outlays” — a broad measure of spending and nonmortgage payments — by U.S. consumers in the top 20% hit multidecade highs last year, a data analysis conducted by Moody’s Analytics found. The other 80% tumbled to new lows, the data shows. ...

 

While the “K-shape” term became popularized as an explanation for the uneven economic recovery seen during the pandemic, economists say the origins of this breakaway can be traced back decades earlier.

This type of diverging economy stems from the economic reorganization seen during the Reagan administration, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax firm RSM. About two decades later, the structural break that created the K-shaped economy, as it’s now understood, was more clearly observed in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of the late 2000s, he said.

That was in part due to the loss of wealth tied to the historic housing market crash, Brusuelas said. On top of that, he said the jump in joblessness limited earnings potential for those without steady employment in their prime working years.

The Great Recession “created the conditions for the winner-take-all economy that emerged in its aftermath,” said Brusuelas, who first heard the K-shape term around 2008. “If you live, work and inhabit certain portions of the economy, you might as well live on the dark side of the moon compared to what goes on down-market.” ...

To make meaningful inroads, the U.S. would instead need to focus on tax reform and expanding social safety nets, according to RSM’s Brusuelas. ...