JMIC states Strait of Hormuz open as of today and the U.S. Navy blockade at an end, tanker transits reported for June 11-17, 2026

SoH tanker transits 1.4/day, SoH E 0.9/day

BAM tanker transits 17.0/day, BAM SE 7.1/day

Strait of Hormuz Open

Blockade End

 

2027 global oil glut headlines, but 2026 historic lows are the present reality

 And Donald Trump has put Iran in the catbird seat. 

 World facing a glut of oil after Iran peace deal

... stockpiles are now dangerously low.

Among the 38 wealthier countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, stockpiles are at their lowest level since 1990, according to the IEA.

“Further declines in the coming months could still take global oil stocks to historic lows before the market balance shifts to surplus,” the IEA warned. ...

This damn fool dithered for over two months AFTER the April 8 ceasefire before he finally figured out that the war he started was going to endanger oil supplies

 

What we want is the truth

Can you imagine a Vance presidency?

I can't. 

Vance: Iran Deal Critics "Want This To Go On Until Every Bomb Has Been Dropped Or Until Every Iranian Is Dead" 

Three Iranian tankers exit U.S. blockade as shipowners eye Hormuz in ‘wary disbelief’ 

 ... The U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Monday to end the nearly four-month war, with a formal signing ceremony to take place on Friday in Geneva. The pact, whose details have not been disclosed, is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive sanctions on Iran’s oil sales. ... 

Update 12:10pm 

Read the 14-point draft agreement between the US and Iran

... The 14-point memorandum of understanding has not yet been officially released but a copy of it was obtained by CNN from a US official.

... A White House spokesperson said the text did not reflect the actual memorandum. 

... The US official told CNN that the text reflects the agreement signed digitally by President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Sunday. 

... Bloomberg earlier published a version of the draft. ...                                          

Update 5:20pm

The CNN story above now contains the official agreement, as of 38 minutes ago.  

Middle East tanker transits June 9-15, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 0.9/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 16.7/day

SoH E:  0.7/day

BAM SE:  8.4/day 

It's a giant con: They signed a nothingburger with Iran, that's why they're not showing it to us

 

 

It is another desperate ploy to jawbone oil prices down in a world hurtling toward tank bottom.

 

Meanwhile, why did Vance have to sign?

 

Is Trump on his last legs?

 

And we're still dealing with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf? I thought Trump said all this took extra time because they were trying to find a more moderate faction?

 

It's all BS, MS, Piledhigh and Deep. 

 

 

June 11:  Oil executives warn White House that gas prices will get worse 

 

... “Both camps know exactly what is at stake,” said one industry official who frequently interacts with the administration. “The industry folks are intent on making sure that if the worm turns, the White House does not point fingers that the industry did not do enough.”

“Everyone everywhere fully appreciates that the standoff cannot go on for another 30-45 days without the political calculations changing,” the official said.

“The White House knows and understands the severity of the potential situation. … They are politically constricted from saying that publicly.” ...

 

June 15: Trump, Vance, Iranian official sign US-Iran peace memo

... Both President Trump and Vice President Vance electronically signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran on Sunday, while Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, speaker of the Iranian Parliament, signed for the Iranian side, senior U.S. officials said Monday. ...

 

 Vance: Iran Deal A "Very General Document," We'll Figure Out The Details In The "Technical Negotiation Phase"

Vice President Vance acknowledged that the preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum is only "about a page and a half" and described it as a "very general document. ... what the MOU does is set up a framework ..."                                   

 

Trump is a terrible judge of character. Ghalibaf is an IRGC fundamentalist.

 

 

Middle East tanker traffic June 7-13, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 1.3/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 17.0/day

SoH E: 0.7/day

BAM SE: 8.1/day

 

Gold and silver are down year to date, but not copper

 Copper is up because high oil prices are bullish for all things electric.

 

 

 

Trump merely decimated Iran, but Cushing he has annihilated

 

Trump was going to halve our energy bills by now, instead he's emptying our tanks to zero

 

 The tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, are hitting bottom. The oil market is about to hit a tipping point 

... Cushing is running out of oil because America has become the supplier of last resort for regions of the world that typically get their oil and fuel from the Middle East. Demand for US oil surged to a record high during the Iran war, and crude has flowed out of Cushing faster than America’s oil drillers can refill it.

But it’s not just a Cushing problem.

US diesel stocks recently hit their lowest level since 2003. Gas inventories have been falling, too – about 5% below where they were a year ago. Other US commercial crude storage facilities outside of Cushing are also getting drained fast – by 7.2 million barrels last week alone. ...

Tank bottom at Cushing OK projected for July

 

Juneteenth, but for oil

 

Middle East tanker transits June 4-10, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 1.7/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 16.6/day

SoH E: 1.1/day

BAM SE: 8.7/day

 

Core wholesale prices, not seasonally adjusted, rose 4.89% yoy in May 2026, a sideways move from 4.85% the previous month which however was initially reported at 5.2%

 

 Wholesale prices rose 1.1% in May, more than expected, on surge in energy

The producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in May, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%, the highest since November 2022.

Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PPI accelerated 0.4%, compared with the consensus view of 0.5%, indicating that rising fuel prices are causing much of the inflationary burden.  

Wholesale prices are frequently revised significantly from month to month but that is seldom followed-up.

According to this report, core wholesale prices increased last month at a somewhat less fearsome rate, and this month is about the same as that revision.

Should I get excited when it's not 5.2% when it's still pretty awful?

I still expect increases in energy costs to act as a screen for producers to increase prices more than warranted in order to realize higher profits. 

My latest lube, oil, and filter cost me $83, $30 of which was labor. The specific oil used retails for $7.99/quart. My discount was $0.24/quart lol.

But in 2021 the very same oil retailed for $3.99/quart. 

 

core nsa

total index nsa

 

When the going gets tough, the weak have to sell their gold, or hinder its purchase

 As gold’s tumble continues, traders bet the pain may last for two more years

... “Turkey’s central bank is selling gold and buying dollars trying to support the lira, and the gulf nations – Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia – they need the money for the war so they’ve been selling gold, too,” Nigam Arora, founder of the Arora Report, said in a call. “At the same time, India’s raised duties on gold, and anyone who’s just watching charts, they had stops under $4,400 and had to start selling when it broke that level.“ ...       

Meanwhile in India . . .

Reserve Bank of India’s forex defense tool surpasses $110 billion as rupee slides 

The RBI's net-short dollar book has ballooned to record levels as India's central bank fights to stabilize a currency under siege from oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and capital outflows. 

India’s central bank is burning through an unprecedented amount of financial ammunition to keep the rupee from cratering. The Reserve Bank of India’s forward dollar-selling contracts have crossed the $110 billion mark, reaching an estimated $110-115 billion in early June 2026, a record for the institution’s net-short dollar book.

Think of it like this: instead of selling dollars from its vault today and watching reserves drain in real time, the RBI is writing IOUs to sell dollars at a future date. It’s a way to defend the currency now while kicking the reserve hit down the road. The problem is that the IOUs are piling up fast, and the road isn’t getting any longer. ...

India imports roughly 85% of its crude oil needs, making it acutely sensitive to energy cost swings. When oil gets more expensive, India needs more dollars to pay for it, which weakens the rupee.

The forward sales strategy itself carries a subtle risk. Those contracts eventually mature, meaning the RBI will need to deliver dollars at the agreed-upon future dates. If the rupee hasn’t stabilized by then, the central bank could face a situation where it’s simultaneously defending the currency in real time and settling old commitments. ...

Five days of supply is better than nothing I guess lol

Except US military operations are costing $435 million per day.

After 30 days we're spending $13 billion trying to free-up $9 billion worth of oil.

Just brilliant.

 

 Trump says U.S. secretly moved more than 100 million barrels of oil through Strait of Hormuz

 

Middle East tanker transits June 2-8, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.1/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 15.6/day

SoH E: 1.1/day

BAM SE: 7.9/day

 

Two years ago Trump was promising to cut our energy bills in half, but now we get a 23.5% year over year increase in energy inflation in May 2026 on top of double digit increases in March and April

 Because he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about.

Why do they always seem to do the opposite of what they promise? 

 

 

Consumer price index inflation in May 2026: +4.2% year over year overall, +2.9% or +2.8% year over year for core, depending on whether you go not seasonally adjusted or seasonally adjusted

Commenters may like to draw a sharp distinction between overall and core and point to core as evidence that this is not so bad, but the thing is, both overall and core measures have been steadily rising since February.

Overall cpi inflation which includes food and energy bleeds into core eventually, because energy inflation drives up the cost of everything.

This is ugly and getting uglier. 

The president has scored an own goal opening the Iran war without a plan to keep the oil flowing.

  

core not seasonally adjusted

core seasonally adjusted

Stellantis wrecks 1.3 million Jeeps, faulty part makes them too dangerous to park in the garage

 Stellantis tells owners of 1.3 million Jeeps to park outside over fire concerns

... the recall covers 2021 through 2025 model-year Jeep Wrangler SUVs and Jeep Gladiator trucks due to an electrical connection issue in the electric-hydraulic power steering pump wiring. ...