Meanwhile CNBC has an excellent story with great interactive graphs of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait before and after the Houthi and Iran conflicts

 And it's quite clear that the Iran war has had no real effect on the number of vessel transits through the Bab-el-Mandeb while destroying transits through the Strait of Hormuz.

Increased Saudi reliance on Yanbu on the Red Sea might change BAM transits in the future, but to what extent transits through SoH might recover is very difficult to say.

BAM transits never recovered from the Houthi threat, and SoH transits may not from the Iran threat, with serious implications not just for oil but for important bulk materials like fertilizer and helium.

SoH transits:

Feb 24 2026: 107.29

Apr 18 2026:   12.57

May 24 2026:    6.00

 

BAM transits:

 

May 24 2023: 82.86

Feb 26 2026:  40.14

May 24 2026: 38.14 

 

Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz might not return to levels seen before the Iran war

... Daily traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, collapsed by more than half from 75 ships on Nov. 19, 2023 to 31 vessels by January 30, 2024. More than two years later, traffic through the strait still has not returned to the levels once considered normal. ...

Quite the howler from CNBC this morning: Closure of Strait of Hormuz keeps 100 million barrels a day from reaching global markets lol

Global oil production in 2025 was about 106 million barrels per day.

The Persian Gulf share of that was about 31 million barrels per day. 

 

 Analysis: The Iran war has made inequality worse. An end won’t fix it

Middle East tanker transits May 21-27, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.3/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 15.6/day

SoH E averages 1.3/day

BAM SE averages 7.3/day

 

Conservatism in 2026 according to National Review

 

Nothing screams conservatism like production and consumption

 FDR merely gave you a check every month in your retirement, but conservatives gave you gas.

Middle East tanker transits May 19-25, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.4/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 16.4/day

 The table shown below is from JMIC Update 50.

The previous update was JMIC Update 48, the table in which in comparison with the one in 47 looked hopelessly screwed up, so I guess they just skipped an Update 49 and started fresh on May 19 lol.

There is no overlap in the table in 50 with the previous table, which has been the customary procedure from update to update. 

BAM NW averages 8.7/day, BAM SE 7.7/day.

Keep in mind NW tankers which transit north to fill at Yanbu, then leave and transit south again can thus become SE transits in addition to NW transits in the totals. Most of these tankers are making this round trip, and most of them are 2-million barrel capacity very large crude carriers which sail in empty and sail out again full. 

SoH E transits average just 1.6/day.

 

Failure of nerve: Trump's ceasefire has only made Iran stronger with each passing day and their negotiating position its strongest in 47 years

Hostilities lasted 38 days. 

Today is the 48th day of the ceasefire, the chicken-out. 

Asia is sucking fumes.

Europe is buying from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and will be in trouble similar to Asia in June, and the US itself will develop problems in July.

Oil market at ‘tank bottoms’ in Asia, and Europe isn’t far behind, warns market veteran Jeff Currie 

... “I would say, Asia, you’re there. Europe, give it about another month, and look for July being a problem in the U.S.,” Currie said. ... “Every day that goes by, Iran’s negotiating leverage compounds. Why? Because inventories of oil and inventories continue to drop,” he said. “The minute you think you won, that’s exactly when you know you probably lost, and their negotiating position at this point has never been stronger in the last 47 years.” 

Welcome back to 2022

 Yikes.

 

Robert Kagan: Trump seems to hope to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat

Which is exactly what Trump did a year ago in the Red Sea.

Beyond the near term endgame Kagan describes, and the isolation of Israel in particular, Trump's cowardice, weakness, and incompetence will have the unintended consequence of reinvigorating the climate and green energy madness which has already weakened the West. 

From the story here: 

... In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday, Trump reportedly explained that the United States was negotiating a “letter of intent” with Iran that would “formally end the war and launch a 30-day period of negotiations” on Iran’s nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The purpose and effect of such an agreement should be clear: The United States is walking away from the crisis.

... Trump has blinked many times in the confrontation with Iran—ever since March 18, when Israel attacked the Pars gas field and Iran retaliated with a strike against Qatar’s most important natural-gas-production facility. Trump then called for a halt on U.S. and Israeli targeting of Iran’s energy infrastructure, and the war effectively ended. 

... [Iran's] terms for a settlement are those of a victor: They demand war reparations, no limits on uranium enrichment, recognized control of the strait, and an end to sanctions. For Trump to respond to this defiance by now calling for another 30 days of cease-fire and talks is a tacit admission of defeat.

... with 30 more days to heal, rearm, and fill its coffers with tolls, Iran will be a more formidable adversary. In 30 days, moreover, the new Iranian strait regime may already be firmly in place. As the Institute for the Study of War reports, Iran has been using the cease-fire period [since April 7] to “normalize” its control over the strait by “compelling oil-importing countries” to establish transit agreements with Tehran and charging fees on vessels from nations without such deals.

... Now that Trump has made clear he has no intention of fighting to reopen the strait, the stampede to get good terms with Tehran will begin. 

... By the end of 30 days, most of the world will have a stake in the new arrangement and will oppose any resumption of hostilities, even in the unlikely event that Trump wanted to go back to war. Trump no doubt hopes that he can slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.

... The president may also hope that he can change the subject by launching another military operation, this time against the government in Cuba. ...

Yesterday's reported week over week US drawdown of 17.8 million barrels of crude oil was the largest on record

 The announcement was made as usual at 1030 hours.

To head off a price increase in oil Trump at 1052 hours announced that the US was in the "final stages" of the negotiations with Iran, which was a load of crap. 

 

Middle East tanker transits per UKMTO JMIC Update 47 May 12-18, 2026: Strait of Hormuz 2.00/day, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 15.42/day

The tanker table for JMIC Update 48 is a mess. It has the wrong dates, and five days of data are identical to the data in Update 47.

There was also a duplicate JMIC 46 update a few days ago, just minutes apart.

It is what it is.

From JMIC 47

From JMIC 48 (the dates should be 14 May-20 May like the Cargo Vessels table, but somehow the exact same data for May 12-16 from Update 47 reappears!)

 

Pure market manipulation

 U.S. crude oil falls below $100 per barrel after Trump says Iran talks in final stages

The only thing surprising about any of this is the market's 100% propensity to believe lies in order to make a buck. 

The total value of all foreign-owned U.S. Treasury securities is up 3.25% year over year in March 2026, and CNBC says Japan and China retreat from owning them

The big retreat was actually in the BRICS. 

The value of Japanese-owned UST is up 5.4% year over year in March, lol.

Meanwhile the value of official China-owned is down 14.8% yoy, but China notoriously owns UST through stealth mechanisms, often in the UK and Belgium where ownership is up 19% and 12.9% yoy respectively.

Hard to say what's going on there with the most trusted name in nothing.

Month over month in March 2026 the total value of all foreign-owned is barely down 1.5%, which is neither unusual nor indicative of much of anything. 

On a year over year basis, there were just five net "sellers" among the major foreign holders: China, Taiwan, Switzerland, India (down nearly 24%!), and Brazil (down 19%!). 

Officially anyway, BRIC of the BRICS raising hard currency for some reason lol oil.

Japan, China lead foreign government retreat from U.S. Treasurys as Gulf War stokes currency fears

From JMIC Update 46 for Middle East tanker transits May 10-16, 2026: SoH 2.71 per day, BAM 13.57 per day

 

Silver is still up 6.14% year to date, gold 5.09% even as energy prices march higher

 But SPX is up 8.02% ytd.

WTI is up 84.01% ytd.

VGENX is up 20.88% ytd.

 

Investment grade corporate securities:  

VWESX is down 1.54% ytd.

VFICX is down 0.65% ytd.

VFSTX is up 0.27% ytd.

 

US Treasury securities:

VUSUX is down 2.52% ytd. 

VFIUX is down 1.05% ytd.

VFIRX is up 0.16% ytd. 

 

Inflation:

CPI (CPIAUCSL) is up 3.77% year over year in April.

PCE (PCEPI) is up 3.49% yoy in March. 

 

Nominal Broad Dollar Index:

April: 119.03

1Q2026: 119.01

2025: 122.75

5Y: 119.94 

 

GDP, Compound Annual Growth Rate

5Y: 7.031% nominal, 2.775% real 

 

 

Daleep Singh: I personally don’t think the bond-vigilante trade will be alive very long

 

 The bond market is flashing a warning over Iran. A veteran of energy geopolitics explains the risk

... A deal would have to be guaranteed by a trusted third party. There’s no trust at all between the U.S. and Tehran right now, because the bombs have been dropping every time they’ve sat down to negotiate. That’s where China comes in, and I’ll be interested to hear more details of what was said and agreed in Beijing [during Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping]. ...

You have got to be kidding me. 

China is the primary beneficiary of the world's sanctioned oil.

 

 

Global oil will pick demand destruction and recession in order to save itself once visible supply falls closer to 6.8 billion barrels

 Global oil stockpiles could hit record lows if Strait of Hormuz remains closed

... Inventories were near a decade high at just over 8 billion barrels at the end of February, Swiss bank UBS estimated in a Tuesday report. By end of April, stockpiles fell to 7.8 billion barrels, UBS analysts said.

Inventories will approach record lows of 7.6 billion barrels by end of May if demand remains the same month over month, the UBS analysts said. Inventories falling to that level would stress the supply chain, JPMorgan analysts said in an April 30 note.

Billions of barrels in inventory may sound like a lot but the reality is that only about 800 million barrels are available without straining the system, the JPMorgan analysts said. The rest is needed to keep pipelines and tanks filled at minimum levels so the supply chain operates efficiently, they said.

 “Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue is circulation,” said Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy. “The system does not fail because oil disappears, it fails because the circulation network no longer has enough working volume.”

Oil inventories would fall to a critically low level of 6.8 billion barrels by September if Hormuz is still closed at that time, JPMorgan forecast. Product inventories would hit critical levels sooner in July or August, according to a forecast from Rapidan Energy.

The global economy would “seize up, with critical transportation infrastructure unable to source fuel at any price,” Rapidan analysts said in May 7 note.

But inventories are very unlikely to reach these critically low levels, the analysts said. Instead, oil and product prices will spike to curtail demand which will cause “a severe economic contraction.”

“That’s likely to happen before 3Q26,” the Rapidan analysts said.

 

Honda to reverse EV missteps at a cost of $9 billion amid lost focus on its famed gasoline engines

 Honda shares rise over 7% as investors shrug off first operating loss in nearly 70 years

... Honda swung to an operating loss of 414.3 billion yen ($2.61 billion) for the fiscal year ending March, compared to an operating profit of 1.2 trillion yen the year prior. Provisions made for its ailing electric vehicle business and related investments, competition from its Chinese rivals, as well as a U.S. tariff impact of 346.9 billion yen weighed on its earnings.

... As part of its efforts to reorganize its EV business, the automaker said it will cancel market launches and development of some EV models initially planned for production in North America. The Japanese automaker said it expects the restructure of its EV business to cost over $9 billion.

... Honda engines used by Aston Martin were found to be causing battery failures and in January the Japanese automaker was slapped with a lawsuit in Canada over a defect in the 1.5L turbocharged engine in three Honda models. ... 

 

The good news is you can still get the 2-liter four cylinder gasoline non-turbo engine in the base Civic, MSRP $26,345, with a theoretical highway range of 508 miles.

 

 

From JMIC Update 45: Bab-el-Mandeb Strait tanker transits average 13.42/day May 7-13, 2026

 Strait of Hormuz 1.57/day.

BAM tanker transits aren't even up to 2022's average of 30/day. The crisis of the oil trade is not being significantly ameliorated by Red Sea operations.

 

Estimates continue to put 5 million barrels per day leaving Yanbu, much of it heading to buyers in east Asia.

Fujairah in the UAE exports shy of 2 million barrels per day, also to the east. 

Iran's exports in April are said to be shy of 1 million barrels per day.

Kuwait exported nothing.

Iraq exported maybe 0.131 million barrels per day.

So 8.1 million barrels per day in April?

21.0 million barrels per day left the region in 2022. 

 

Update 5/18/26:

IEA estimates 8 mb/day bypassing Strait of Hormuz, flows still far below pre-war levels.

 

For May 3-11, tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz have been averaging 1.2/day, through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait 13.4/day

 Per the JMIC Updates 43 and 44.