As an inflation fighter, Jerome Powell turned out to be twice as bad as Arthur Burns

Under Powell core pce inflation exceeded 10Y yield for 4 consecutive years (2020-2023).

Under Burns it was for only 2 (1974-1975).

The Bernank was Fed chair in 2012 when inflation only just barely outran 10Y yield.

 

Adjusted for inflation from 1995, the average mortgage payment in 2025 was 37% higher than it might have been

 

 In June 1995 the average mortgage payment in the United States was roughly $773.

Adjusted for inflation to June 2025 that's $1,635.

The actual average mortgage payment in 2025 was about $2,235.

Bill Clinton teeming up with Republicans in 1997 to turn our homes into mere commodities has really worked out great, hasn't it?

Especially for young people. 

The median age of a first time home buyer in 1995 was 29. 

In 2025 it's 39.

But your GOP-controlled U.S. Senate couldn't care less.

It stayed up late last night to scheme for more money for ICE even though ICE is completely incompetent to deport illegal aliens, but it never stays up to solve the most pressing problems of America's younger generations.

The blindness is mind-boggling.

Trump was useless when we needed him

 Trump: NATO Was Useless When We Needed Them, But Actually We Didn't Need Them

 

Inflation, whether pandemic induced or war induced, has been berry berry good for hiding price increases to boost corporate profits

 

Corporate America Aims to Preserve Profit Streak During War in Iran:  Higher inflation is leading companies to raise prices without sacrificing margins

 

... Sonu Varghese, the global macro strategist at the Carson Group, a financial firm, said many of the companies he tracked viewed inflation pressures from “outside shocks,” such as this war, “as an opportunity to raise prices and boosts margins,” which can, in turn, raise profits.

“I think we’re actually going to get some margin expansion,” Mr. Varghese added. ...

 

My morning coffee, my Sunday hamburger, my Italian tomatoes, pasta and olive oil, and now even my salad

I coulda mentioned salad the other day, but I didn't.

The average price made a new record high in 1Q2026. 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why BLTs and salad just got more expensive — tariffs, war send tomato prices soaring

This story is about fresh tomatoes, not salad, and it is interesting, but the average price of tomatoes in 1Q2026 still hasn't surpassed 1Q2016.

Adjusted for inflation since 1Q1980, tomatoes could cost $2.64 per pound, but they were only $1.98 in 1Q.

As the story says, canned tomatoes are much cheaper. I make my sauce from stewed whole plum tomatoes from a can, preferably Italian, preferably San Marzano or Parma, but there are many acceptable American brands to choose from. 

CNBC wholesale prices headline spin zone: "rose much less than expected"; Ragin' inflation reality: "the biggest 12-month gain since February 2023"

And core wholesale inflation in 1Q2026 also rounds to 3.8% yoy, and is right back where we started with Trump in 1Q2025, if you give me 0.04 for 3.77% year over year.

 

Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much less than expected despite war impact

The producer price index, a gauge of pipeline costs for final demand goods and services, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, well below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 1.1%.

Excluding food and energy, core PPI was up just 0.1% against the forecast for 0.5%.

On an annual basis, the all-items PPI accelerated 4%, the biggest 12-month gain since February 2023. The core PPI posted a 3.8% annual gain. ...

All items

Core

Trump promised to cut energy prices in half within 12 months, but electricity and utility gas in the first quarter of 2026 have never cost more

Relentless inflation is so boring: Core cpi inflation in Mar 2026 clocked in at 2.6% yoy, 1Q2026 at 2.5% was last this high in 2008 outside the COVID-19 eruption

 

Core pce inflation at 3% year over year in Feb 2026 is double the average rate over the thirteen years 2008-2020

 

Adjusted for inflation since 1990, gasoline in this chart should be about $2.95, but it's $3.99 instead

 

Fed chair Jerome Powell didn't say the oil shock will be transitory, but he might as well have

 

 ... Powell said raising rates now could have negative effects on the economy later. He noted that Fed rate moves have a lagged impact on the economy, so tightening here wouldn’t help the inflationary impact of the Iran war.

“By the time the effects of a tightening in monetary policy take effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone, and you’re weighing on the economy at a time when it’s not appropriate. So the tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock,” he added. ...

More.

Mistaken yet again.

We have permanently higher prices across the board as a result of the COVID shock. 

The Houthis have joined Iran by restarting hostilities against Israel

Trump couldn't finish the Houthis off last year, and now they come back to bite.

Oil tankers filling at Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port in the Red Sea because it was too dangerous in the Persian Gulf may soon have nowhere to fill.

All because Donald Trump has been mistaken twice in the Middle East.

The energy crisis will soon be a global energy catastrophe, leading to an inflation catastrophe, leading to an economic catastrophe. And maybe a world war.

 

 

Reality has a funny way of jamming seemingly interminable rosy expectations

 Markets now see the Fed’s next move as a potential rate hike as inflation fears mount

... Traders in the futures market pushed the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52% on Friday morning, the first time it has crossed the 50% threshold, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool. ... 

 

WTI crude oil at $15.05 on average in 1986 adjusted for inflation to January 2026 would be just under $45, but it's over $93 on March 16

CNBC now says inflation is a problem with February core wholesale prices up 3.9% year over year vs. 3.6% in January, Iran war effects pending

 Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in February, much more than expected

... On a 12-month basis, headline PPI inflation was at 3.4%, the most since February 2025, while core was at 3.9%, according to the BLS. The Federal Reserve targets inflation at 2%. ... 

None of the inflation data so far has captured the price increases associated with the war. But it has indicated that even before the attacks, inflation was a problem. A report last week indicated that consumer prices rose at a 2.4% rate in February. Separately, the Commerce Department said its main inflation gauge [pce], which the Fed uses as its forecasting tool, was at 3.1% for core and 2.8% for headline. ... 

We know, Kevin

 WH’s Hassett: If Iran War Were Extended, It Would Hurt Consumers, But That's The "Last of Our Concerns"

... It would hurt consumers, and we'd have to think about, you know, if that continued, what we would have to do about that. But that's like really the last of our concerns right now ...

That right there is a stagflation headline

 Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to just 0.7% growth; January core inflation was 3.1%

Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday. ...

The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period. For the full year, GDP posted a 2.1% increase, or one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous reading. In 2024, the economy rose at a 2.8% pace. ...

On the inflation side, readings for January were mostly in line with estimates, though they showed price increases running well ahead of where the Federal Reserve would like. ...  

      

Core pce inflation has been range-bound around 3% since Dec 2023. For 2009 through 2020 it averaged half that, 1.5%.

The compound annual rate of real GDP growth since 2017 has been 2.416%, almost 34% lower than the post-war rate for 1947 through 1984 of 3.652%.

The rate for 1984 through 2017, also using today's data, was 2.675%, also higher than the rate since the Trump tax reform eight years ago.

Trump has not made America great again, any more than Reagan did. 

 

 

New high prices for coffee and ground chuck

 

Core cpi inflation still 2.45% year over year not seasonally adjusted, down from 2.50% yoy last month, Assembly of Experts expects higher next month

A little Iran humor for ya there. 

 Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in February, as expected

... The data predates the recent surge in oil prices tied to the war with Iran, meaning any impact from higher energy costs will likely show up in the months ahead. ...

Outside the pandemic, we were last higher than this in Sep 2008.

 

U.S. Federal Debt continues to be a very popular investment with foreigners who owned $9.2484 trillion of it at the end of 3Q2025

As of early 2026, the average interest rate paid on all outstanding U.S. federal debt is about 3.35%.

This rate represents a significant increase from the roughly 1.5% average seen in early 2022.

The chart was updated on Mar 4, 2026.

The $9.248 trillion owned by foreigners in 3Q2025 was about 24.5% of the total public debt outstanding at the time. 

The latest data available from the U.S. Department of the Treasury indicates that in Dec 2025 foreigners owned $9.2709 trillion.