Iran attacks UAE; U.S. says it sank boats in Strait of Hormuz
Monday, May 4, 2026
The consequences of the Reagan Revolution: $11.1 trillion missing real GDP since 1Q1984
Real GDP in 1Q2026 reached $24.175 trillion.
Had real GDP continued to grow at the pre-1984 rate to now, it would have been $35.273 trillion, 46% more than it is.
That's the difference between a compound annual growth rate from 1947 to 1984 at 3.585% continued to 2026 instead of at 2.657% since 1984 to now.
IDEAS HAVE CONSEQUENCES.
Sleepwalking into a big recession: SPX hits new all-time intraday high 7230.12 on May 1 after oil jumps 78% year to date
‘Misplaced euphoria’: Markets are sleepwalking into a recession amid Iran war oil price shock
Global economies could be “sleepwalking” into a “big recession”, as investors continue to underplay the impact of the oil price shock, Amrita Sen, founder and director, market intelligence at Energy Aspect, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday. ...
“This is a massive, massive energy crisis. I have been equally amazed at how the equity market is completely dismissing it, talking about how great Q1 results are. They are not going to be great nearly to the same extent in Q2.” ...
Sunday, May 3, 2026
JMIC Update 40 for tanker traffic in the Middle East April 26-May 2, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 26-May 2, 2026
Strait of Hormuz E: 1.85/day
Strait of Hormuz W: 1.28/day
Total: 3.13/day
Normal (2022): 70/day
Down 95.5%
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait SE: 7.0/day
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait NW: 7.42/day
Total: 14.42/day
Normal (2022): 30/day
Down 51.9%
Back when America was still truly great, in July 1973, a barrel of oil was just 26 bucks
What?!
A barrel of oil in July 1973 at $3.56 is $26.54 in March 2026 adjusted for inflation.
I keep hearing that Baby Boomers are just sucking this world dry. Keep telling yourselves that, suckers.
Ty Cobb: We're governed by a madman
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/donald-trumps-lawyer-mental-state-unfit-serve-4378218
https://archive.is/uceDe
Christopher Caldwell for The New York Times thinks the American Empire has met its match in the Persian Gulf when it already met it a year ago in the Red Sea
... the United States lacks the military means to impose its will on Iran in a long conflict. In 1991 a million soldiers from more than 40 countries were needed to reverse the invasion of Kuwait carried out by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, a country less sophisticated than Iran and a fraction of its size. When Iran and Iraq fought each other to a standstill in the 1980s, deaths ran into the hundreds of thousands on each side. The United States would have to send a significant portion of its armed forces — which total only 1.3 million troops — to stand a chance of subduing Iran, and that force, if successful, would have to stay for a long time. ...
Here.
Caldwell is just as blind as Trump.
Neither one gets it that the lowly Houthis already beat us to a draw last year in the Red Sea.
Nothing is moving out of the Persian Gulf today, and tanker traffic through the Red Sea is less than half what it used to be in 2022, even under the new conditions of a world desperately thirsty for the Middle East oil no longer coming out of the former.
And neither one gets it that you can't have an American Empire without paying for it.
We're $39 trillion in debt and can no longer impose our will in the world's vital choke-points because elites have pretended since Reagan that low marginal income tax rates are sufficient to maintain American Empire when what those rates have done is impoverish us and enrich our adversaries.
1,135 billionaires are the symbol of our lost empire.
Caldwell steers well clear of naming the obvious remedy, and Trump's Big Ugly Bill will do nothing but put America $62 trillion in debt by the end of 2032.
Taxes must be raised . . . a lot.
Saturday, May 2, 2026
Why I'm not very interested in the redistricting hullabaloo pre- and post- the Supreme Court decision
I view fixed representation at 435 as a crime against the Founders and a crime against the people, and all the recent developments involving this subject simply rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Representation was meant to grow with population, and Republicans stopped that in 1929.
Political power is now more concentrated in fewer hands than ever, resulting in sharply more polarized politics where more is riding than ever before on the outcome of U.S. House elections.
Anti-federalists sought representation at 1:15,000 of population. An early compromise settled on 1:30,000, which grew to 1:50,000 but was never ratified in Article The First.
At this moment in time we have representation at 1:787,290 thanks to the Republicans in 1929.
Now your congressman doesn't know you from Adam, and couldn't care less what you think. Write him or her about an issue, and you'll get a nice form letter back thanking you for writing if you're nice. If you're not nice you will not hear back from your lords and masters.
6,849 U.S. representatives is unimaginable to most people today, let alone 11,415 or 22,831.
The problem is 435 for a country this size would be unimaginable to the Founders.
Friday, May 1, 2026
Trump steaks, Trump wine, Trump gold visa
Trump’s ‘bargain’ $1m Gold Card backfires with just 338 applications
... The Trump Gold Card, which offers purchasers an expedited route to American residency, was unveiled with great fanfare in February 2025. ...
Dirty Rotten CEOs in the news
... The average CEO received $8.4m in total compensation in 2025 compared to $7.6m in 2024. ...
For 384 CEOs in the S&P 500 where CEO compensation data was
available, pay increased by 25% from 2024 to 2025, while average hourly
earnings for workers at private companies increased 1.3% in the same
period. ...
Mark Davis is running for FL-16 on 8647 lol
... Mark Davis, an unaffiliated candidate running in Florida’s 16th
district, drives around with an “8647” license plate, wears an “86 47”
hat, and sells hats and a t-shirt featuring the numbers on his
campaign’s website. ... Davis has been using “86 47” to express his disdain for Trump since he
announced his campaign for the House of Representatives last year. ... Davis is not the only one who has been selling “86 47” merchandise. On
Amazon, hundreds of t-shirts with variations of the numbers are
available for as little as $10. Other websites, such as Redbubble and
Etsy, sell stickers, hats, posters and other variations of “86 47.” ...
On day 60 Lizard Brain turns off the war as of April 7 to restart the 60-day clock again later whenever he wants
Trump tells Congress hostilities in Iran ‘have terminated’ as War Powers deadline hits
... “The hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have terminated,” Trump wrote. ...
Thursday, April 30, 2026
JMIC Update 39 for tanker traffic in the Middle East April 23-29, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 23-29, 2026
Strait of Hormuz E: 2.14/day
Strait of Hormuz W: 0.28/day
Total: 2.42/day
Normal (2022): 70/day
Down 96.5%
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait SE: 6.57/day
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait NW: 7.71/day
Total: 14.28/day
Normal (2022): 30/day
Down 52.4%
Real GDP for 1Q2026 was reported today at 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate, and it continues to underperform both the Reagan era and the post-war era
It's a long way down from 8.1% in 1Q1984 to 2.0% in 1Q2026.
GDPC1 compound annual growth rates:
Trump era to now 1Q2017-1Q2026: 2.476%
Mid-Reagan era to Trump 1Q1984-1Q2017: 2.707%
Post-war to Reagan 1Q1947-1Q1984: 3.585%
Trump underperforms the post-war by 31% . . . and Reagan by 9%. MAGA is purely aspirational.
Reagan to Trump underperformed the post-war by 24%.
The compound annual growth rate of real GDP from Reagan to now is 2.657%, underperforming the post-war by 26%.
This is why the kids don't have full-time jobs, kids of their own, and homes to raise them in.
 |
| trend for percent change for real dollars |
 |
| trend for percent change for the rate |
Core pce inflation is raging at 3.2% year over year in March, 109% above normal, and the Congress, the president, and the Fed are doing ZERO, ZIP, NADA about it
The Fed met YESTERDAY and left the federal funds rate unchanged even though this is their primary indicator of inflation and it is more than double the average rate post-Great Recession.
There were just three votes with the temerity to suggest that inflation might be a problem right now.
But SPX is up! one half of one percent at this hour, threatening to make another all time high. That's all that matters!
None of them give a shit about YOU!
Democrat U.S. Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow from Michigan is a New Jersey transplant, and it shows
Elitist climber, progressive snob.
April 2025:
April 2026:
I just mailed a letter at my rural gas station on the corner and gasoline is $4.99/gal
To think I filled up yesterday at Sam's for $4.09.
Diesel is $5.99.
The average price of unleaded regular gasoline in 2022 was $4.09, but that's what I paid for it yesterday at Sam's Club, except now this morning it's $4.19!
Gasoline stations around Grand Rapids were selling gasoline for $4.29/gallon yesterday.
Gas Buddy says the average price in my county this morning is $4.791 and climbing.
Wednesday, April 29, 2026
The Jerome Powell Fed Chair era draws to a close effective May 15, but Powell could remain a Fed governor until his term ends in January 2028
Fed holds rates steady but with highest level of dissent since 1992
... In what may have been Chair Jerome Powell’s final meeting at the helm, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold the benchmark funds rate in a range between 3.5%-3.75%. Markets had been pricing in a 100% chance of no change. ...
It wasn't much of a dissent when the vote to hold rates steady was 11-1. Three of the eleven simply disagreed that right now the Fed should say as it does in the official statement that it remains open to new information which might suggest additional rate cuts in the future, when in their opinion that sends the wrong signal when inflation remains as elevated as it is at present.
... “My decisions on these matters will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe is in the best interest of the institution and the people we serve after my term as chair ends on May 15, and will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined,” he added. ...
Stock investors fared very well under Powell. Bond investors, not so much
... the S&P 500 rallied 14.7% annually under Powell, the third best performance for Fed chairs going back to 1970, Bespoke Investment Group found. ...
“He believed in easy money. He voted for all the QEs. He voted for zero interest rates,” Boockvar said. “It’s only when inflation mugged him ... that he became more hawkish ... .”
But the problem with accommodative monetary policy is, “Easy money gets investors drunk on things, and puts beer goggles on them,” Boockvar said. ’Sometimes it ends up OK, but other times it ends up in rampant inflation.”
... The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index that aims to track all U.S. investment-grade debt returned just under 2% annually during Powell’s tenure, far below the average of 6.5% since the 1970s, according to Bespoke. ...
Analysis: The Warsh revolution is coming. Powell won’t stand in the way.
... the only major challenge for Warsh, as far as Powell is concerned, will be driving consensus within the Fed for where to set interest rates. Wednesday’s dissents suggest that won’t be easy. But Powell, whom Warsh has described as a failed chair who chose inflation, went out of his way to say Warsh is up to the task.
The chair’s job is to “create consensus” among the Fed’s voters and to “be inside their thinking,” Powell said.
Warsh “has the capabilities, skills to be very good at that,” Powell said.
If Warsh cuts interest rates in this environment, he'll be choosing inflation, too.
Inflation is very painful for the people, but for a government which absolutely refuses to get its fiscal house in order Powell's choice of inflation was the only medicine available to him, faced as he was with a national debt snowballing toward $40 trillion and the moon after that, and desperately in need of devaluation.
So-called moderate Democrat Haley Stevens (MI-11) comes out on top in latest primary poll for U.S. Senate from Michigan
If Democrats hope to keep the seat being vacated by Gary Peters, they'd better nominate Stevens.
Tuesday, April 28, 2026
JMIC Update 38 for tanker traffic in the Middle East April 21-27, 2026
Middle East Tanker Traffic April 21-27, 2026
Strait of Hormuz E: 1.71/day
Strait of Hormuz W: 0.57/day
Total: 2.28/day
Normal (2022): 70/day
Down 96.7%
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait SE: 6.42/day
Bab-el-Mandeb Strait NW: 6.85/day
Total: 13.27/day
Normal (2022): 30/day
Down 55.8%
Jimmy Kimmel lives rent-free in their heads
A lot more people know about what Kimmel said about Melania last week than would have otherwise only because Melania took the bait.
FCC launches review of Disney broadcast licenses years ahead of schedule
... Trump revived his push for ABC to take Kimmel off the air after the host of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” referred to First Lady Melania Trump as an “expectant widow” during the show last week, days ahead of an alleged assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. ...
They're going to have to put the whole country in jail
James Comey charged with threatening Trump’s life in ‘8647’ seashell post
... Trump had accused Comey of “calling for the assassination of the president” by sharing the image of the numbers in the May 15 post. ... Around four months later, however, he was indicted in Virginia on [SOMETHING ELSE!] one count each of making a false statement to Congress and obstruction. ...
Here we go again, plunging into more stupidity
Trump Administration Secures New Indictment Against Comey
The new case stems from a photograph of seashells on a North Carolina beach.
... The charge stems from an incident nearly a year ago, when Mr. Comey, vacationing on the North Carolina coast, posted a photograph on social media showing seashells arranged to say “86 47,” combining the slang term “86” often used to mean dismiss or remove with an apparent reference to Mr. Trump, the country’s 47th president. ...
When Mr. Comey learned of the uproar, he deleted the post, saying that he did not know that it had a violent connotation and that he opposed violence of any kind. The Secret Service interviewed him by phone that evening, and Mr. Comey said he had no intent to cause the president harm. The next day, he sat for an in-person interview. The Justice Department eventually dropped the matter, but it was revived in recent months. ...
Fetterman is still not right in the head
Fetterman's recent history of saying some reasonable things makes people on the right treat him like he's some oracle now.
But another lunatic tries to shoot Trump and suddenly America is on the hook for a new ballroom, which wouldn't be necessary AT ALL if Mad King Ludwig hadn't torn down the East Wing in the first place?
I don't think so, pal. Not when Trump promised it would be funded entirely from private donations.
Monday, April 27, 2026
Ha, taxes coerce behavior whether you like it or not, so you'd better decide what behavior you want because you're going to get it good and hard either way
the Fifth Circuit’s ruling is a welcome nod to the fact that the federal government cannot take tax laws intended to increase revenue and twist them merely to regulate business activities. ...
“If you want more of something, subsidize it; if you want less of something, tax it.”
. . . and the East Wing, and the Kennedy Center, and USAID, and the UN, and Ukraine, and NATO, and the Persian Gulf, and Trade, and GDP, and Prices, and Energy, and . . .
We voted for Bob the Builder and got Don the Wrecker instead.
 |
| On October 23 photos from the Associated Press showed that the entire East Wing had been demolished. |
Yeah, but what Trump saved with military spending cuts to Ukraine he's blowing on the Iran war, which is why he's asking for $1.5 trillion in defense spending next year
The U.S. national debt is up $3.069 trillion to date since November 1, 2024, an annual rate of deficit spending of $2.2 trillion after seventeen months of Donald Trump.
... Global military spending as a share of GDP climbed to 2.5%, its highest level since 2009, the report showed. Europe was the main driver of the increase in global spending, with spending rising 14% to $864 billion. ...
While global defense spending continued to grow, the growth rate slowed to 2.9% in 2025, markedly lower than the 9.7% rise in 2024. This was largely due to a 7.5% reduction in U.S. military expenditure after no new financial assistance for Ukraine was approved during the year. The U.S. remained the world’s largest defense spender at $954 billion. ...
The Pentagon has requested about $1.5 trillion in defense spending for fiscal 2027, which would mark the largest request in history. ...
Sunday, April 26, 2026
JMIC Update 37 for tanker traffic in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb 19-25 April 2026
SoH E: 2.4/day
SoH W: 1.0/day (ZERO 23-25 Apr)
Normal 2022: 70
Down 95%
BAM SE: 7.1/day
BAM NW: 8.4/day
Normal 2022: 30
Down 48%
Well, that's what ugly does doesn't it?
Forgotten no more: Generation X is driving beauty sales
Yes, I'm in a m o o d today.
Just in time for the future convicts of the Trump administration
I thought it was liberals who were infamous for the death wish?
DOJ says it will use firing squads, electrocution again for federal executions
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