Industrial production missed the consensus estimate yesterday, so they trotted out Larry Kudlow to tell you otherwise lol

 For month over month in July, the consensus estimate was for +0.3%. Instead we got +0.2%.

Meanwhile the big picture shows, like so many indicators, that industrial production hit the big brick wall of Reaganism in 1984.

Post-war industrial production grew handsomely and its growth rate trended upward from 1948 to 1984, but not after.

Why is that?

I think it's because the incentive to invest in domestic industry went away because of the Reagan tax revolution.

Up to that time, high ordinary income tax rates had pushed owners of capital to invest in America for decades because by doing so they could take advantage of relatively much lower long term capital gains tax rates when they wanted to take income. After the dramatic Reagan cuts to ordinary income tax rates, that arbitrage disappeared. From that time onward owners of capital, now flush with cash from taking income at low ordinary income tax rates year upon year, found it more advantageous to invest abroad where low labor costs and unregulated markets promised even more fabulous returns on investment as America hobbled itself with regulation at home. The exit of businesses of all sizes from the United States to East Asia which began from this time turned into a flood after China was admitted into the WTO in 2001.

But today J. D. Vance thinks the U.S. Dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is the cause of all our problems.

If you want to know what makes me despair, that's it.

The following news story was more accurate than Kudlow. 

US: Industrial Production Up Again in July as Modest Manufacturing Recovery Continues 

J. D. Vance is fixated on cheaper foreign labor as the cause of American industrial decline when it was the tax preference given to ordinary income over long term capital investment which made it attractive

Vance: The Two Conceits Of Globalization That Squeezed American Manufacturing From Both Ends

 

". . . cheap labor is fundamentally a crutch, and it’s a crutch that inhibits innovation. I might even say that it’s a drug that too many American firms got addicted to . . ."

The indispensable contribution driving investment back home to the United States will have to be penalizing foreign investment's income and rewarding long term domestic investment's income through the tax code, which also means dramatically raising ordinary income tax rates. In other words, returning to the status quo ante-Reagan.

The reason is we have learned that rich people don't know what's best to do with their own money any more than the rest of us do. The rich have not done what's best for the country. Ronald Reagan was completely wrong about that. They took one look at the quick and easy money and immediately started looking to maximize it elsewhere. The tax code used to force them to do the right thing, which was keep it here and invest at home if they wanted to get richer. And that is what made all of us richer, with jobs with which we could afford to marry, buy houses and cars, raise children and send them to college.

People who got rich through Reagan's low ordinary income tax rates fell for the cheap labor abroad to get even richer, but now here they and we sit together beholden to countries abroad who are hostile toward us.

The chart below shows how domestic investment dominated foreign throughout the post-war until the Reagan tax reform of 1986. Investment abroad did not overtake domestic until 1993, at 105% of private fixed investment, after the Reagan tax cuts had taken full effect. Foreign as a percentage of domestic investment is double that and more today. For every four dollars invested at home in 2024, eight were invested abroad.

It took decades to screw this up, and it will take decades to fix it. But as sure as I'm sitting here neither J. D. Vance nor Donald Trump nor any other politician out there has any clue about this.