Showing posts with label The Lost World. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Lost World. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Is the stock market a good value?

 Nominal gross domestic product Q2 2026: $32.563030 trillion (updated Sep 30, 2026)

SPX Jun 2026 average level: 7,450.03

Median valuation ratio 1938-2019: 81

GDP(81)=SPX fair value

32.56303(81)=2637.60 fair value Jun 2026

32.56303x=7450.03 actual value Jun 2026

x = 228.79 actual valuation ratio Jun 2026

Valuation ratio above 81 in Jun 2026: 182.45%

Answer: NO

Mother of all investment opportunities: 1982

Valuation ratio: 35

 


 

 

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Welcome to The 26th Anniversary of The Lost World

When average real return from stocks was 86% better. 

This incorporates the inflation data for August 2026 reported last week.

 


 

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Real GDP today might have been $35 trillion instead of $24 trillion had it not been for Ronald Reagan

Real GDP today might have been $35 trillion instead of $24 trillion had it not been for Ronald Reagan. 

From 1Q1947 to 1Q1984, real GDP grew at a compound annual rate of 3.585% from $2.18268 trillion to $8.03484 trillion.

Since 1Q1984 through 2Q2026, updated yesterday, the compound annual growth rate fell to 2.651% so that real GDP today is $24.26961 trillion when at the previous rate it might have achieved $35.58524 trillion.

The 26% cut to the growth rate resulted in underperformance of nearly 32%, represented by $11.3 trillion in missing real GDP after 42.25 years.

Did recipients of massive ordinary income tax rate cuts know best what to do with their own money?

The answer in China is Shì de.

  

The calculation is 35585.24 = 8034.84 * (1 + 0.03585) ^42.25

 




 

Saturday, July 25, 2026

The Lost World of food

... Couponing, comparison shopping and cutting back on favorite foods are new habits for Apral Jack and millions of other Americans as they absorb the biggest jump in grocery prices in a half-century. Buying food to eat at home has gotten 33% more expensive in U.S. cities since the beginning of 2019, according to government figures. In the 7 1/2 years before that, prices rose 6.4%. ...

More.

Monday, June 22, 2026

The homeownership rate soared to 68.8% in 2006 after nearly twenty years of Alan Greenspan at the Fed

 The rate when he began as Fed chairman was 64% in 1987, and again in 1990 and 1994, before taking off during the Clinton-Gingrich era.

Supporting the high homeownership rate was full time employment on an average annual basis north of 50% of population for twenty-three consecutive years 1986-2008. 

We call it The Lost World.