Strategic victory for Iran (and China): Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz is the primary result of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran so far

... So far in March, the first full month of war, barely six vessels per day on average have traversed the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world, in either direction. That compares with about 135 a day in normal times, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Over that time, 80% of the small number of oil tankers exiting the strait have been Iranian — or belong to countries with which it is on cordial terms, the figures show. ...

Out of the 110 individual ships that left the gulf this month, more than 36% were sanctioned Iranian ships or part of the so-called dark fleet serving Tehran, data compiled by Bloomberg show. For oil tankers, 21 out of 35 that have exited had direct Iranian ties — but most of the remainder went to nations with whom Tehran has a friendly relationship. 

Until this war, one long-held assumption around Hormuz was that Iran would never attempt to close the strait, for fear of risking its own exports, a vital economic lifeline. In fact, ship-tracking data suggest that Tehran’s oil has continued to flow — almost entirely to China — even as other ships are stranded and producers in the region have been left scrambling for alternatives or forced to stop producing as storage fills up.

Iran exported roughly 1.8 million barrels a day this month, a nearly 8% increase from its average over 2025, according to figures from data intelligence firm Kpler as of March 26. That likely facilitated hundreds of millions of dollars of oil revenue for Tehran, a Bloomberg News analysis shows. ...

More. 

Drone swarms of unknown origin numbering 12-15 interfered with B-52 attack runs to Iran at Barksdale AFB in Louisiana for four hours per incident the week of March 9

 Sophisticated drones attacked Louisiana’s Barksdale bomber base 

... Barksdale AFB does not have air defenses, nor does it have fighter jets that can take down drones.

The airbase does have some electronic countermeasures that were designed to disable GPS and the datalinks between the drones and their remote operators. The electronic countermeasures failed to work. ...

The drones could have come from a potential adversary, China being best equipped to produce a drone of the type that flew over Barksdale. From what has been observed, the drone design surpasses almost anything in the US arsenal.

What we know is that the drones had extraordinary range, could resist broad spectrum jamming, and featured non-commercial signal characteristics. Even more provocatively, the drones used various ingress and egress routes and operated in dispersed patterns, making traceability (via trying to triangulate on signals) virtually impossible.

We do not know if the drones transmitted information while they were over the base or stored information they transmitted later, or whether the drones may have had satellite links.

... realistically the US is years away from a real domestic counter drone capability.                                                                                                                                                                                                                Hot Air covered the story yesterday.

Tanker traffic out of the Persian Gulf has been cut by 98% in one month because of the Iran War, effectively reducing the world's primary energy inputs through the Strait of Hormuz by 20%

The UAE is bypassing the Strait of Hormuz with 1.9 million barrels per day now coming out of Fujairah via its overland pipeline, and Saudi Arabia's overland pipeline west to Yanbu is moving about 4.5 million barrels per day out through the Red Sea, but that's not the 20 million barrels per day lost due to the war, and no LNG is moving at all.

Pakistan and Bangladesh get two thirds of their LNG from the Gulf, Taiwan gets one third of its LNG. Taiwan says its has eleven days' supply remaining. Many others are also severely affected by the cut-off of LNG from Qatar. About 20 LNG tankers are trapped in the Gulf, half the global fleet available for charter.

Meanwhile Iran has increased export of its oil from 1 million barrels per day in February to 2 million in March, 90% of which goes to China, and Iran is now charging tolls to vessels to exit the Gulf along its coast, which occurs only under Iranian escort. 

 

 

Trump's whopper of the week: The ten vessels Iran let through Hormuz on March 22-23 were a present to the United States lol

 Trump says Iran let 10 oil ships through Strait of Hormuz as ‘present’ to U.S.

... “That was three days ago, and I didn’t think much about it,” he said. ...                                     

No kidding.

This cockamamie idea sounds like it was thought up by Howard Lutnick.

The vessels went to China and India, and transited along the coast of Iran after passing between Qeshm and Larak and did not take the usual central passage, so they probably had to pay tolls. 

I wonder if they sent the bill to Mexico? 🤣

Sounds more like a gift to our competitors and enemies than to us. 

UKMTO reported ten transits two days ago, but not all were oil, and some were outbound and some inbound; this summary is probably what someone showed to Trump and they just assumed it was all oil outbound when it was not: 

 

Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, selectively allows a trickle of ships to pass

Traffic is trickling through Strait of Hormuz: Who’s moving through and who’s still stranded

 

... The blockade has squeezed shipping traffic to a trickle, with just 21 tankers transiting the route since the war began on Feb. 28, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, compared to more than 100 ships daily before the conflict. ... Iran has continued to ship millions of barrels of crude oil to China since the war began. ... From March 1 to March 15, a total of 11 China-linked vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, mostly general cargo ships ...  

This is completely unpatriotic because it helps China, just like Mad King Ludwig's Ukraine policy is completely unpatriotic because it helps Russia

 Michael Savage used to warn us about the enemy within. Unfortunately America elected him.

80-90% of Iranian oil is bought by China, the proceeds from which Iran uses to buy raw materials from China to make ballistic missiles.

Trump is insane. 

U.S. is allowing Iranian oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz: Bessent

Iran attacks vessels in the Persian Gulf but ships its own oil to China, threatens to mine the Strait of Hormuz as U.S. littoral combat ships prove inadequate as replacements for legacy minesweepers decommissioned last year

Three cargo ships struck off Iran’s coast, UK says, including one in Strait of Hormuz 

... The UKMTO said it had received 17 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman between Feb. 28, when the war began, and March 11. These include 13 attack reports and four reports of suspicious activity. ...

Iran sends millions of oil barrels to China through Strait of Hormuz even as war chokes the waterway  

... Iran has sent at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28, all of which were headed to China, Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers, told CNBC on Tuesday.

The firm monitors vessel movements with satellite imagery, allowing it to capture vessels that would otherwise go undetected if their tracking systems are switched off. Many vessels have “gone dark” after Tehran threatened to attack any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway. ...

Over the years, China has built up large crude stockpiles, accumulating an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of inventory as of January, which could fulfill demand for 3 to 4 months, according to Atlantic Council. ...

U.S. forces sink 16 Iranian minelayers as reports say Tehran is mining the Strait of Hormuz 

... A CNN report Tuesday said that Iran had started laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, albeit not extensively. Sources that CNN spoke to said only a “few dozen” had been laid in recent days.

The report also said that Iran still retains more than 80% of its small boats and minelayers, and could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.  

Located between Oman and Iran, the strait saw roughly 13 million barrels of crude per day passing through it in 2025, representing about 31% of all seaborne crude flows, according to energy consulting firm Kpler. ...

CBS News, which reported that Iran “may be getting ready” to deploy naval mines, said the country was using smaller crafts that can carry two to three mines each to lay them in the strait. While Iran’s mine stock isn’t publicly known, estimates over the years have ranged from roughly 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines, the report said. ...

... the U.S. had decommissioned four Avenger-class minesweepers that were stationed in Bahrain in late 2025.

The replacement vessels for the Avenger-class, the Independence-class littoral combat ships, have “struggled to meet the requirements of operational mine countermeasures missions,” according to global naval publication Naval News.

The Chicoms have been the primary source for Iran's sodium perchlorate for twenty years, without which its ballistic missile program would not exist

Iran ships most of its oil to China, and China sends back the ingredients for weapons of mass destruction.

 

 Laden Iranian ships depart Chinese port tied to key military chemicals (March 7, 2026)

... “China could have held these vessels at port, imposed an administrative delay, invented a customs hold — any number of bureaucratic tools, but didn’t,” said Isaac Kardon, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to The Post. “That’s a deliberate policy choice made during an active war in which Beijing publicly calls for restraint.”

Although IRISL operates as a large commercial carrier, Kardon said the circumstances of these shipments strongly suggest the cargo is sodium perchlorate. “Given the track record, the most parsimonious explanation is that they’re loading the same commodity they’ve been shuttling for the past year-plus,” he said. ...

The U.S. and Israel strikes have hammered Iran’s missile storage bunkers and underground depots. “Tehran’s need for propellant precursors just went from urgent to existential,” Kardon told The Post.  

 

 Western intelligence says Iran is rearming despite UN sanctions, with China’s help  (October 31, 2025)

  ... European intelligence sources say several shipments of sodium perchlorate, the main precursor in the production of the solid propellant that powers Iran’s mid-range conventional missiles, have arrived from China to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas since the so-called “snapback” mechanism was triggered at the end of September.

Those sources say the shipments, which began arriving on September 29, contain 2,000 tons of sodium perchlorate bought by Iran from Chinese suppliers in the wake of its 12-day conflict with Israel in June. The purchases are believed to be part of a determined effort to rebuild the Islamic Republic’s depleted missile stocks. Several of the cargo ships and Chinese entities involved are under sanctions from the United States. ...

China expected to expand submarine fleet to 80 by 2035, up to half nuclear-powered, from 60 now, more than half of which are diesel-powered

 

China Building Subs That Can Strike USA From Closer to Home, Navy Warns...

... Brookes cited a Pentagon projection that China’s submarine force will reach 80 vessels by 2035, about half of them nuclear-powered—up from the current estimated fleet of more than 60 subs, most of which are less capable diesel-powered vessels that have a shorter range of movement and must surface more frequently than nuclear-powered ones. This projection has appeared in past Pentagon annual reports on China’s military power. ...

I'm so old I remember when Jan 2026 full time employment at 48.79% of population was Great Recession level bad

 That whole China joining the WTO and globalization thingy has really worked out great for the American middle class amirite?

The winter trend since Jan 2023 has been DOWN:

Jan 2023: 49.32%

Jan 2024: 49.16%

Feb 2025: 48.88%

Jan 2026: 48.79%. 

 

 

 

The Trump administration's first reaction to Canada's Mark Carney forging a new world order with China on Thursday was, We're the real new world order lolol

2:39pm

2:48pm

Yeah, Trump did a really great job kicking out of Venezuela all that foreign influence in our hemisphere from China, Russia, and Iran

 

China may have been buying up to 80% of Venezuelan oil exports, but that amounts to just 4% of China's imported supply

 Ample oil supply shields China from impact of Venezuela disruption, for now

 

In 2018 The Wall Street Journal was still defending China's admission into the WTO, today it pretends it wasn't part of that bipartisan folly

 Then: "The U.S. properly worked for China's inclusion".

Now: "An era of folly began in the new century. Leaders of both political parties supported China's entry into the World Trade Organization".

I can't wait for the Wall Street Journal to admit that America's decline actually began under Reagan forty years ago, not twenty-five, because at this rate I'll be dead before they do.

 

Stories like this about China destroying the U.S. Dollar just make me want to howl

But hey, what do you expect from MarketWatch?

China quietly destroying the dollar...

... As more commodities get priced in yuan instead of dollars, demand for dollars softens. As central banks diversify into gold, they buy fewer Treasurys. As fewer foreigners buy U.S. debt, interest rates drift higher. As the dollar’s purchasing power erodes, everything you import costs more. ...

This, like most of the story, is a load of BS.

Global demand for U.S. debt is at an ALL TIME HIGH, a record $9.2 trillion in the last three months through October.

You'll know the yuan has replaced the dollar when the world buys Chinese sovereign debt instead of ours. And right now the world owns less than $300 billion of Chinese sovereign debt, billion with a B, not trillion with a T.

Nobody trusts China like they trust us. 

The writer, who owns gold and silver, wants you to dump long term bonds and buy short term bills and . . . gold and silver. Gee, what a coincidence. 

Meanwhile foreign governments continue to prefer long term U.S. Treasuries and own relatively few bills.

And the dollar is relatively strong, not weak as the writer says, in November 2025. 

click to enlarge

 

My God, The American Conservative is a joke of a magazine

The NSS Is the Strategy We Have Waited For

 ... The NSS finally says out loud what many of us have argued quietly: proximity shapes power. If the United States wants to compete with China—economically, technologically, militarily—it must simultaneously secure the space in which its own republic exists. A great power does not project strength globally while hemorrhaging authority regionally. China seems to get this instinctively. It does not confront nuclear competitors while tolerating cartel rule on its own doorstep. ...

China is the principal global source for the world's fentanyl and methamphetamine precursors which fuel the cartels in Mexico and in China's own backyard in Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand, which also supply China with its own heroin and opium.

Illegal drugs are a key weapon China deploys against the West, but Trump's new, awful, stupid National Security Strategy couldn't care less.

And Trump is about to prove it again next week when he reclassifies gateway drug marijuana as Schedule III instead of Schedule I. 

Treasury Secretary Bessent says we have to stop the rigged Chicom economy by abandoning free market principles just like them

 

 Trump administration will set price floors across range of industries to combat China, Bessent says

... “When you are facing a nonmarket economy like China, then you have to exercise industrial policy,” Bessent told Sara Eisen at CNBC’s Invest in America Forum in Washington, D.C.

“So we’re going to set price floors and the forward buying to make sure that this doesn’t happen again and we’re going to do it across a range of industries,” the Treasury secretary said, without naming specific industries the administration was looking at beyond rare earths. ...

“I wouldn’t be surprised,” the Treasury secretary said when asked about additional equity stakes. “When we get an announcement like this week with China on the rare earths, you realize we have to be self-sufficient, or we have to be sufficient with our allies.”

The Trump administration will not take stakes in nonstrategic industries, Bessent said. “We do have to be very careful not to overreach,” he said. ...

 

 

Gold hits record $4,083.42, silver hits record $51.70, Bank of America forecasts $5,000 and $65

 Gold, silver hit record highs as Trump threatens fresh China tariffs

... Spot gold was up 1.64% to a record $4,083.42 per ounce. ... Spot silver jumped 2.22% to $51.39/oz, after hitting $51.70/oz, driven by similar factors as gold alongside tightness in the spot market. ... 

Bank of America on Monday raised its price forecasts for precious metals, lifting its 2026 outlook for gold to $5,000 an ounce and for silver to $65/oz. BofA is the first major bank to raise its gold price forecast to $5,000/oz for 2026. 

On a technical basis, gold’s and silver’s Relative Strength Index stands at 80 and 83, respectively, indicating the metals are overbought. ...

Look who's blaming the victims again!

 These guys slapped ginormous tariffs on China and now complain China is straining relations.

They also blamed Ukraine for starting the war with Russia.

The chutzpah.

Speaker Johnson says China is straining U.S. relations with Nvidia chip ban

 

Trump is not faithfully executing the April 2024 law which required TikTok to be divested from Chicom ByteDance or be shut down in the United States by January 19, 2025

 Biden signs Israel, Ukraine, TikTok bill into law

Oracle and Silver Lake part of TikTok investor group as Trump extends deal deadline [for the fourth time]

Impeach the bastard.