Trump's tariffs will bankrupt thousands of American businesses and millions will be unemployed as a result

 So says Ryan Petersen, founder and CEO of Flexport, in The Wall Street Journal, here:

... If the tariffs on Chinese goods continue at this rate, he says, thousands of American companies will fail and millions of employees will lose their jobs. ...

When the pandemic clogged up supply chains, he rented a boat so he could tour the Port of Long Beach, Calif., and see the bottlenecks for himself.

When he’s not cruising around ports for information, he’s getting it directly from his company’s 13,000 customers. They are companies that sell electronics, furniture, clothing, toys, diapers, pet feeders—basically everything. He makes it a priority to talk with as many of them as he possibly can. ...

This past week, he traveled from San Francisco to Washington, D.C., where he spent two days meeting with government officials to make the case that tariffs pose an existential threat to his customers. ...

A Trump-appointed judge has ordered another Venezuelan wrongly deported to El Salvador returned to the United States

 ... U.S. District Judge Stephanie A. Gallagher in Baltimore on Wednesday ruled that removing him without a chance to complete his asylum petition or challenge his deportation violated the settlement agreement. Cristian, and any other person who had been removed in violation of the settlement agreement, should be returned, she said. ...

More.

Nauguration lol, because it's the weekend help

 From Ken Griffin to ROBINHOOD: Donors Who Funded nauguration Revealed...

Wanting to capture power is about the least conservative thing about today's right wing

 More recently, far-right writers like Curtis Yarvin, who’s influenced Vice President JD Vance, have talked about how to capture power through a culture war. “This war is not fought with bombs and bullets, or even laws and judges,” Yarvin wrote in 2022. “This war is fought with books and films and plays and poems. It is still a savage war!”

Here.

As if power were an object outside oneself, a thing to be grasped, as opposed to something one already possessed in one's very self.

This objectification of power as outside oneself is a confession of weakness, a sign of spiritual decadence. 

Power in one's self is expressed as self-mastery and contentment. That kind of power, subjective power, radiates outward and masters its environment naturally. It doesn't need to run for office, or want to.

There is a dearth of such individuals in the country now, which is the actual problem, not that the minority which still exists doesn't rule.

Generally speaking you cannot impose virtue from the outside and make it stick. You have to change yourself.

Conservatives are stuck on a derivative. Culture is downstream from the cult. They need to swim upstream and find it.

Car manufacturing jobs, so-called good jobs, already don't pay enough to enable these Detroit auto workers to buy their own homes and have families, and they fear layoffs because of the tariffs

 The Wall Street Journal doesn't mention it here.

This guy's been working for the company for 10 years and he's still renting.

... Daniel Campbell, who maneuvers steel auto parts around a Stellantis factory north of Detroit, says he and many of his colleagues are worried about layoffs.

“I’m scared,” he said from his brick bungalow on the west side of Detroit, which he rents with two roommates. “We’re complaining about gas and eggs now. Who is going to be able to buy these cars that are already $80,000, and then you make it $90,000?”

The 46-year-old UAW member, who makes about $30 an hour, and one of his roommates have talked about trimming their spending, including eating out less and cutting clothing and electronics purchases. 

“There’s going to come a time where we’re not going to be able to go and spend,” he said. 

 At work, the assembly lines have been running faster in recent weeks as Stellantis has tried to stockpile parts ahead of the tariffs, Campbell said. He and his co-workers are running out of room to store the parts. ...

Marine Le Pen sentenced to jail in France, barred from running for office in 2027

 Marine Le Pen Sentenced to Prison, Banned From Next Elections Over Embezzlement

... Judges handed down a sentence Monday that bars Le Pen from seeking public office for the next five years, upending France’s political order and thrusting her far-right party into limbo. Le Pen also received a four-year prison sentence, half of which was suspended. The ruling takes Le Pen out of contention for the 2027 race, when President Emmanuel Macron finishes his second and final term and she was expected to be the front-runner. ...

Former S&P sovereign bond unit executive who participated in the Obama era 2011 credit downgrade basically calls Trump's America a banana republic, and DOGE not a proper government department

 WSJ: What about DOGE’s accessing the Treasury Department’s payment system?

Kraemer: We don’t have all the details of what they took and on what basis. It seems highly irregular. People from a department, which is not even a proper government department, that have gone and gotten access to data, that we have to assume is quite, I should say sensitive, which doesn’t belong in the hands of unelected individuals. 

WSJ: Have you ever seen anything like this before?

Kraemer: Yes, I think I have seen this. Regimes that don’t respect checks and balances. But they tend to be more in the emerging markets. This is exactly what sets rich and poor countries apart, right? It’s the qualities of institutions, the rule of law, the transparency of decision-making. 

So have I seen this? Yes. But have I seen it in an advanced economy, in an OECD member country? No, I have not.

The whole thing is here.

Obama appointed judge, Paul Engelmayer, issues sweeping order banning Musk and his allies from accessing the US Department of Treasury payments system

 Federal Judge Blocks Elon Musk’s DOGE From Treasury System: Order requires those who have accessed payment records without proper security clearance to destroy them

A federal judge in New York temporarily restricted the ability of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to access the Treasury Department payment system, saying that doing so was necessary to prevent the potential disclosure of sensitive and confidential information. 

The early Saturday order by Judge Paul Engelmayer, an Obama appointee, precludes officials without proper background checks and security clearances from accessing the payment system through at least next Friday, including political appointees and special government appointees. It also orders any prohibited person who has had access to the records since President Trump’s inauguration to destroy them. The judge set a hearing for Friday.

Some 19 blue-state attorneys general filed the case Friday evening, saying that Musk’s DOGE initiative risks interference with the payment of funds appropriated by Congress. 

Engelmayer said the states were likely to win on arguments that the Trump administration exceeded its authority in allowing broader access to the payment system. He also said the states faced irreparable harm without court intervention for now, including “the heightened risk that the systems in question will be more vulnerable than before to hacking.” ...

Well thank God.

None of these people have security clearances. The say so of President Trump is not a security clearance.

A Democrat moves to the center: Ritchie Torres (NY-15) calls out AOC (NY-14) and Governor Hochul

 Here:

“I’m a controversial figure in Democratic politics,” he says. His affection for the Jewish state makes him “particularly radioactive to the far left. There’s no issue on which I face more hate, harassment, and even death threats.” Mr. Torres says there is “a deep strain of antisemitism on the far left.” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who represents the neighboring 14th District, has repeatedly accused Israel of “genocide.” ... On Jan. 16, two days after Gov. Kathy Hochul delivered her State of the State address, Mr. Torres accused her of failing to support the state’s Jews. “Antisemitic hate crimes have risen to historic highs in New York,” he tweeted. “Yet when I searched the Governor’s State of the State for the word ‘antisemitism,’ nothing came up.” He tells me the next day that “the governor had a 140-page policy document and there was not a single mention of antisemitism. Never mind that Jews are the target of more hate crimes than everyone else combined. None of that mattered to her.”

 

Pete Hegseth reportedly has had episodes of drinking to the point of passing out

 

 I get the drinking too much until you barf. I mean, that's pretty much been Freshman Life 101 forever and a day. Pete was a freshman in college in 1999-2000.

But it takes a special kind of excess to drink until you pass out.

Is it true? 

Who knows.

One incident was allegedly in 2013, when he was about 32, at which time he had earned an MA from Harvard. Another was when he was about 28, in 2009, when his first marriage ended. That's a long time after graduating from Princeton University in 2003.

The precise timeline is uncertain because his birth year isn't precisely known, and the new revelations come from a former sister in law, married to Pete's brother from 2011-2019, who can't remember the dates exactly.

Anyway, I don't get why the new SECDEF absolutely, positively must be this guy, with all this sooty baggage. No one is that indispensable.

From The Wall Street Journal here:

Pete Hegseth, President Trump’s pick to run the Pentagon, regularly abused alcohol to the point that he passed out at family gatherings, and once needed to be dragged out of a strip club while in uniform, according to an ex-relative’s account of his behavior that was given to U.S. lawmakers and reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

The sworn statement, submitted in response to a request from Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, was signed by Hegseth’s former sister-in-law, Danielle Hegseth. It states that she was with Hegseth when he passed out from drunkenness in the bathroom of a bar in Minneapolis in about 2013. It also describes another night, when she said Hegseth drank so much at a restaurant in Minneapolis that the Uber driver had to pull over on Interstate 94 so he could throw up.

In her sworn statement, Danielle Hegseth said she personally observed erratic and aggressive behavior by Hegseth, witnessing him abusing alcohol multiple times over the years. One Christmas in 2008 or 2009, he drank so much that he threw up and passed out, she said. ...

Neither of these guys won a tectonic election: I can't believe we're still talking about this

 

49.71%

50.73%

Oh, we'll have to wait . . . for pigs to fly

Inflation impact on low income households is more like 6.3% when weighing necessities higher, says retail expert Howard Jackson

The Wall Street Journal reports here, also saying low income wage growth now lags everyone else's:

 Howard Jackson, president of retail-focused firm HSA Consulting, estimates that inflation has actually averaged about 6.3% over the past 12 months for low-income households. Jackson said this estimate adjusts the consumer-price-index basket to weigh necessities—such as rent, utilities and food—higher than things they tend to spend less on, such as cars, furniture, clothes and consumer electronics. His estimate considers what items constitute the food basket, based on surveys of low-income consumers. “If you don’t have much money, you keep your pair of jeans a lot longer. Those are the purchases that get deferred,” Jackson said.

OMG, the NY Post/Karol Markowicz comparison of Pete Hegseth to Brett Kavanaugh is completely wrong, and now Pete Hegseth goes there to defend himself

 Where else? but in The Wall Street Journal here:

Like veterans returning from any war, we drank beers to manage the reality of what we had faced. But we never did anything improper, and we treated everyone with respect.

 

DeSantis is far and away better for DOD than Pete Hegseth, but it would be a step down for the governor, and a minefield which could blow up his chances for 2028, if he still has any

 Trump Mulls Replacing Pete Hegseth With Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

Beside all that, Trump is just poaching again. 

Florida still needs Ron DeSantis, especially to appoint the replacement for the already poached Senator Marco Rubio. One bad decision leads to another.

Can't Trump find anyone else? Isn't this just more evidence of how few quality people find serving in this lame duck presidency an attractive prospect?

Ron DeSantis should also think long and hard about having to defend everything Trump for four years, quite apart from defending the United States, if he's still serious about a 2028 run. He ran against Trump in the primaries, after all, for reasons.

I think this story is more of a trial balloon, an advertisement: "Hey out there! Anyone interested in the job? Help! I gotta get rid of Pete! Please step up!"

The Wall Street Journal: Trump is leading Harris among whites by 22 points, among seniors by 8 points

The late swing among older and white voters jumps out in the Emerson College poll. On Aug. 15, less than a month after she became the Democratic nominee, Ms. Harris trailed Mr. Trump by 12 points among white voters and was tied with him among all voters 60 or older. Since then, these voters have fled from Ms. Harris. By Oct. 26, Mr. Trump led by 22 points among whites and 8 points among seniors. ... 

 

Prejudice can’t explain older whites’ recent flight from Ms. Harris, since she was already a black woman in August, when many more of them supported her. ...

 

Losing older whites is politically painful, since they tend to turn out at a high rate. They’re also overrepresented in key states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

More.

Kamala Harris is keeping quiet about climate change because the so-called Inflation Reduction Act's climate provisions are going to screw America good and hard for decades, to the tune of $3 trillion

 The climate policies she would offer promise huge costs for negligible benefits. It’d be one thing to ask for sacrifices that could save the planet. But even at a whopping official price tag of $369 billion over 10 years, the Inflation Reduction Act’s climate measures as written were likely to lower the projected global temperature in 2100 by less than 0.03 degree Fahrenheit. In reality, the IRA has turned out to be an even rawer deal. The cost has rapidly ballooned to somewhere north of $3 trillion over 30 to 40 years, even as emission cuts have been slower and smaller than predicted. No wonder Ms. Harris isn’t trumpeting it.

-- Bjorn Lomborg, here 

 

Kamala Harris was the tie-breaking vote in the US Senate twice to advance the bill into law.

 

 

By 2032 no more than 29% of new cars can be gas-powered, and Kamala Harris doesn't have to do anything to make it happen except get elected to protect the Biden EPA rule

 

That's one big reason why Kamala says she can't think of one thing she'd do differently than Joe Biden.

 The Environmental Protection Agency’s new greenhouse gas emissions rules require that battery-powered and plug-in hybrid vehicles make up 32% of auto maker sales in 2027. By 2032 no more than 29% of new cars can be gas-powered. Ergo, there will be only one gas-powered model for every two electric cars on dealer lots. ...

Auto makers must spend tens of billions of dollars to ramp up EV production to meet government mandates. The financial pain is growing for companies as sales of gas-powered cars decline, reducing profits available to invest in the EV “transition.” ...

A UAW study in 2019 projected that EVs would kill 35,000 jobs at its plants. “The workers who are making engines and transmissions today, their jobs will be eliminated when we make a transition to electric vehicles,” said UAW research director Jennifer Kelly.

More.

 

The New Way Forward is just another lie.

 

 

 

In April AP told us 650,000 were homeless in the US, The Wall Street Journal says the problem has grown about 10% largely on a surge in illegal aliens

The Journal’s count includes about 550,000 homeless people so far, up about 10% from what these places reported last year. The trend thus far means the U.S. is likely to top the roughly 653,000 homeless people estimated in 2023—the highest number since the government started reporting comparable data in 2007. The final count will depend on outstanding data from places that haven’t yet divulged their 2024 numbers, especially New York City, which reported the highest count last year.

 

More.

CNBC fact-checks Joe Biden, now that it doesn't matter

 But the article name-checks Donald Trump five times because he's an opponent of Fed decisions.

There's a whole movement out there that wants to End the Fed, composed of Republicans, Democrats, and libertarians, which CNBC is loathe to mention.

Many of them argue that the US 2-year Treasury Note should be the benchmark for the Federal Funds Effective Rate, not the whim of the Fed Chair and the Federal Open Market Committee, who are un-elected, well-connected, and VERY WELL PAID elites who watch out primarily for the interests of the banksters.

For example, despite the disastrous Zero Interest Rate Policy post-Great Recession, DGS2 resisted it and outran DFF throughout the period under Obama and Trump, and anticipated the recent inflationary outburst by starting to rise in the spring of 2021, a full year before the Fed moved to "combat inflation" by raising the funds rate in the spring of 2022. 

Similarly DGS2 also started to fall in November of 2023 despite no change to Fed policy, anticipating the recent decline of inflation rates by almost a year.

The role of the US Treasury Secretary, AS MUCH A CREATURE of the Executive as the Fed Chair, is also huge for interest rates because the Secretary decides how to divvy up the debt securities for auction by duration.

Biden's Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been in the news for driving up the issuance in T-bills to 22% when 15% has been customary, which has contributed to longer rates falling and stocks rising, just in time for the election.

But the costs of this have been dramatic, financing deficit spending at the highest rates and driving interest payments on the debt to the third spot in the budget, behind only Social Security and Medicare.

Tim Walz is a conventional California lefty on immigration who rammed through his radical policies in Minnesota once Democrats got control of its legislature

Kamala Harris picked him because she went with her gut.

As the Democratic governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz signed into law initiatives allowing immigrants in the country illegally to apply for driver’s licenses, qualify for free tuition at state universities and enroll in the state’s free healthcare program for low-income residents. Walz’s actions on immigration—nearly all taken in the last two years, when Democrats had control of the state Legislature—put him squarely in the mainstream of his party. ...

Allowing those without a legal immigration status to drive legally, go to college at in-state rates and enroll in health insurance are pieces of a two-decade project by Democrats ...

“He’s more in line with what we’re seeing in states across the country led by a Democrat,” said Victoria Francis, deputy director of state and local initiatives at the American Immigration Council, a liberal-leaning national advocacy organization.

More.