Showing posts with label CNBC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CNBC. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Adults make rare appearance to defend the message being sent to Trump and Congress by the bond market

Unfortunately taxes are already baked into the cake, and taxes need to rise.

But Republicans will insist otherwise, and rearrange the spending chairs on the Titanic.

So higher yields it will be until politics intervenes in November, or in 2028.

The fixes by the Treasury Department will be temporary and ineffective, pushing on a string. 

 

 Stanley Druckenmiller leads doubters who think Bessent’s bond ploys will fail

... “If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice,” he wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece. “Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit.”

... Like some others, [Ryan] Swift doesn’t see anything terribly alarming about the recent rise in yields, saying the 30-year long bond is near “fundamental fair value” based on the Fed’s benchmark rate and expectations for the central bank, along with inflation, unemployment and market volatility.

The 30-year bond is only trading slightly above its 50-year average around 5.16%. The benchmark 10-year note as of Tuesday morning actually traded exactly in line with its 4.64% historical average going back to the early 1960s. ...

Monday, August 17, 2026

TLT and IEF in the bond drawdown news

SPR isn't the only thing in drawdown lol, down 49.5% since the beginning of 2022. Oil. Pffft. Who needs it, right?

Long term bond investors are getting killed, if any are left still standing. The article linked says most fixed income investors have gone ultra short.

Meanwhile the personal saving rate, which includes monies being socked away in retirement accounts, has plunged to 2.7% in June 2026. A prosperous people saves. Ours is doing something else. 

 

Imagine being down 6.7% per year for five years straight in the "safe" part of your portfolio, or even 1%, when inflation has been raging at 4.5% on average. Real return is far, far more negative.

Here:

... The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), for example, has posted an average annual return of negative 6.7% over the past five years, while its 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) has posted an average annual decline of 1%. ...

 

Nothing in this story indicates to me that Democrats or Republicans are ready to do what is necessary to fix Social Security

 What the results of a Connecticut congressional primary race may mean for Social Security

The full retirement age needs to be increased gradually to 69 from 67 over the next forty years, just as it was from 65 to 67 starting in the 1980s, and a two-point increase in the payroll tax, shared equally by employers and employees, needs to be passed immediately.

Sorry, but that's the deal.

You cannot expand benefits, and you cannot tax people to oblivion to pay for a retirement system who will never have a reasonable expectation of receiving benefits under the program commensurate with what they contributed.

The $1.45 trillion spent by Social Security in retirement benefits in 2025 is NOT welfare.


  

Saturday, August 15, 2026

GAO said in 2022 the SPR was in very good condition, Trump's Energy Department came into office saying it wasn't, recent drawdowns only compound the problems in the 60 salt caverns

The damn thing will probably collapse before they're done.

Maybe instead of a ballroom next to the White House they can build some new tanks instead. 

SPR depletion raises questions about integrity of caverns that store oil

... The Government Accountability Office said in a May report that “repeated partial drawdowns followed by refill can leach a single part of a cavern repeatedly, leading to undesirable shapes.” 

The majority of the SPR’s caverns were found to be in “very good condition” after the 2022 drawdown, according to the GAO.

“However, every drawdown cycle expands cavern volume and reduces the spacing between caverns within the salt dome, which ultimately reduces their long-term viability,” it said.

To release oil from the SPR, water is pumped into the bottom of the caverns to displace the crude to the surface and pump it through wells into pipelines.

Seventy million barrels is the strict physical minimum needed at the top of the caverns to keep the extraction pipes safely submerged in oil rather than water, said Siddharth Misra, a petroleum engineering professor at Texas A&M University.

But “the practical operational floor for the crude inventory is between 250 million and 300 million barrels,” Misra said in an email to CNBC. At current inventory levels, “cavern integrity and overall operational capability are at an elevated risk,” he said.

When the inventory drops below 300 million barrels, the SPR loses its ability to pump oil at rapid speeds to address emergencies, Misra said. The system’s pipes and pumps could also get damaged as the oil layer thins at the top and sludge rises toward the extraction intake at the cavern ceiling, he said.

Fresh water is often pumped into the caverns during rapid drawdowns which dissolves the salt walls, Misra said. This “creates flatter, less stable roof and severely thins the critical salt pillars that separate adjacent caverns, greatly increasing the geological risk of a structural cave-in,” he said.

The SPR was originally designed for five full drawdowns. Instead, it has executed dozens of large and small releases over the past 40 years, Misra said.

“Because the system was not designed for this many cycles, the repeated injection of water and extraction of oil have caused severe cavern deformation, accelerated the rate of massive salt falls from the ceilings, and significantly weakened the overall structural integrity of the aging reserve,” he said.

Energy Department officials told the GAO that they are “holding the SPR infrastructure together with ‘Band-Aids,’ and that it is uncertain how long they will hold.” More than a quarter of the SPR inventory was “not available for drawdown due to a combination of construction outages and cavern outages” as of December 2025, the GAO found. ...

The strapped Chicoms come for the people's cash lol

 Beijing is said to move to clarify tax rules stoking confusion among China’s ultra-wealthy

... Beijing last month imposed a 20% tax on offshore trusts – a structure long used by China’s wealthy families to hold hundreds of billions of dollars outside the country. The move set off a panic rush for tax and legal advice, and a scramble for cash to meet the bill.  

The levy applies at nearly every stage of a trust’s life, from establishment to profit distribution and wind-up. Individuals must also declare and settle outstanding taxes on assets already transferred into such structures within 90 days of the rules’ release – by Oct. 21 – or face surcharges for late filing or non-payment.

While the rules ended decades of regulatory ambiguity about the vehicles, they have also created fresh confusion over implementation.

Trusts established after 2023 face the 20% charge at inception, but it remains unclear how many years back owners of older structures, which are subject to an annual recurring tax, must declare, said Yuan Cao, Beijing-based partner of law firm Yingke.

Advisors also warn that many trust assets could fall afoul of foreign-investment reporting rules issued in July, potentially inviting scrutiny from foreign-exchange authorities over how the money left China in the first place.

... The tax push comes as Beijing hunts for new sources of fiscal revenue. Land sales, long a mainstay of local government finances, have collapsed amid the property downturn. 

... “These measures can easily create a sense that a storm is gathering,” said Neo Wang, chief China strategist at Evercore ISI, who added that these concerns may be overdone. ... 

Thursday, August 13, 2026

Inflation been berry berry good to Chico, profit margins have never been higher

 Net profits margins running at 16.9% instead of 12.4%.

These charts show why stocks keep rallying. Profit margins are the highest on record

And of course they write this headline with a straight face:

Wholesale prices were flat in July, below expectations for 0.2% increase 

I got your record corporate profits right here pal, month after month after month:

... On an annual basis, the headline PPI increased 4.7% for the all-items index and 4.2% for core, according to unadjusted figures. ...

 


  

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Komrade Karoline resigns to be a proper mom, ends her tenure at the end of August

 Trump says Karoline Leavitt resigning as White House press secretary

Saudis ramp up oil exports using Sumed pipeline to the Mediterranean, Sidi Kerir Egypt now exporting 2.3 mbpd in August, more than double the July level

Most of this oil is now going to Europe and the U.S. instead of Asia because of the extra time and shipping cost for going around Africa.

The UAE is now in the catbird seat for shipping oil to Asia, at least until Iran decides to attack Fujairah.

 

Saudi Arabia ramps up oil exports through Mediterranean pipeline to avoid attacks in Red Sea  

 ... Oil exports from Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir have more than doubled to about 2.3 million barrels per day in August compared to around 1 million bpd last month, according to data provided by the trade intelligence firm Kpler. The majority of those exports are Saudi crude, said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler. ...

Saudi exports from Yanbu through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait were down nearly 90% to 1.3 million barrels during the week of Aug. 3, compared with 11 million barrels for the week of July 20 when the Houthis declared the embargo, according to Kpler data. ...

 


 

America is based on guns because it's also based on robbery

I mean, we stole the colonies from the king . . . in the second place amirite?

Before that we were stealing his masts

With no king to rob anymore, we instead rob ourselves.

 

To be a 1913 millionaire in July 2026, you'll need 33.73 of them, and a high capacity magazine.

 

July 2026 cpi inflation 3.4%

July 2026 core cpi inflation 2.5%

Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Because some of them are communists, including Abdul El-Sayed

 Why Michigan voters are hearing ‘communist’ as they vote Tuesday

... Democratic socialist Darializa Avila Chevalier, who took down Rep. Adriano Espaillat, D-N.Y., in a Democratic primary in June, maintained a since-deleted Twitter account on the platform now known as X. There she included calls to “seize the means of production” and a quip that the now-candidate wiped her hands on an American flag. Trump seized on the latter tweet in a recent interview with CNBC.

Chevalier has since told MS NOW that she is not a communist. She called the focus on her past commentary a “distraction.” ...

This story fails to mention Abdul El-Sayed's proposal for the federal government to take a 50+1 stake in AI.

Most of the coverage of El-Sayed instead emphasizes that he says he's not technically a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, just as Chevalier insists she's not a commie.

 

Friday, July 31, 2026

They did this late on a Friday afternoon on purpose because no one is paying attention

 Pirro moves to drop Reflecting Pool vandalism case, says damage caused by ‘flawed installation’

U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro on Friday moved to dismiss an indictment charging U.S. Olympic canoeist David Hearn with vandalizing the Reflecting Pool of the Lincoln Memorial, writing in a court filing that damage to the pool’s sealant was the result of a “flawed installation.” ... 

Monday, July 27, 2026

Friday, July 24, 2026

Trump's Pentagon plays games with Iran War deaths, apparently didn't get the memo that hostilities formally resumed on July 7th

Or is the reasoning, which clearly isn't Trump's, that the four new deaths belong to Iran War II, not Iran War I? 

 Pentagon lowers official Iran war death toll, omitting four killed this month

... Three military officials told the Times that the four service members killed this past weekend — three in Jordan and one in northern Iraq — were struck from the list because their deaths came after President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire in April. All of the deaths listed on Thursday U.S. time on the website, which said it was updated as of Wednesday, occurred in March. ... Trump himself has used the higher figure for the death toll. At an event on Thursday, he said, “I had a very sad day yesterday. I went to Dover, four great American patriots killed. That’s 18 … and one is too many, but it’s 18.”

Trump sends Congress formal notice that Iran conflict has resumed

WASHINGTON, July 13 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump has sent Congress formal notification that hostilities against Iran resumed on July 7, a letter his administration sees as opening a new 60-day ​window to use the military in the region without congressional approval. ...


Thursday, July 23, 2026

The fix for Social Security is easy, lawmakers just don't have the balls to do it

 Raise the tax rate two points, split between employer and employee, and raise the full retirement age from 67 to 69. Phase both in same as was done starting in the 1980s. That process concluded, by the way, only just this year.

It was going on all along and you never even noticed.

Doing this again will make Social Security solvent until 2100.  

 

AARP to Congress: ‘We strongly object to fast-tracking Social Security changes’ 

 


 

These are toothless resolutions against the Iran war meant for consumption by the dumb public and would never force Trump to do anything

 Congress splits on war powers resolutions to force Trump to abandon Iran war