... We’re a couple seconds away, folks, from our July release of the Producer Price Index.
Headline number is– WHOPPINGLY big! Oh my goodness!
Up 9 tenths of a percent. Up 9 tenths. And if you strip out food and energy, guess what? It’s still up 9/10ths. Boy, that equals June of 22! ...
More.
Hey, they're only off by a factor of 4.5x.
Low inflation expectations based on June were clobbered by the facts, but to hell with the facts. $SPX is down only 0.07% at this hour.
The market cheerleaders desperately cling to the belief that the Fed must lower interest rates in September. When the numbers come in 0.1 below expectations, they go wild and drive up stocks like madmen believing they must be right. When the forecast misses like this they just hold.
On a year over year basis, the forecast was for +2.5% for overall wholesale prices, but they got +3.3% instead, seasonally adjusted.
For core wholesale prices the consensus forecast was for +2.9% year over year, but they got +3.7% instead, again seasonally adjusted.
Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected
Wholesale prices rose far more than expected in July, providing a potential sign that inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report Thursday showed.
The producer price index, which measures final demand goods and services prices, jumped 0.9% on the month, compared with the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% gain. It was the biggest monthly increase since June 2022.
Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.9% against the forecast for 0.3%. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index was up 0.6%, the biggest gain since March 2022. ...
It's not a potential sign of inflation, you idiots. It's a real sign.
The year over year numbers, not seasonally adjusted, for core wholesale price increases in the July report are oddly unchanged from the June report in no respect, for the increases since October 2024. In fact, the figures are exactly the same to five decimal places. It's like everybody went on vacation and just copied and pasted and went to the beach:
Nov 2024: 3.35987
Dec 2024: 3.74962
Jan 2025: 3.92532
Feb 2025: 3.73239
Mar 2025: 3.78846
Apr 2025: 3.07652
May 2025: 3.21542
Jun 2025: 2.62853
and Jul 2025: 3.65568.
The average of these Nov thru May is 3.54965. July looks like that, but June sure the hell still does not.
I smell a rat.
Meanwhile . . .
Core cpi inflation yoy averaged 2.9% in the first half of 2025, but 3.1% in July.
Core pce inflation yoy averaged 2.8% in the first half of 2025 (July numbers come Aug 29th).
But core wholesale prices were up 3.4% in the first half on average, and 3.7% in July according to today's report.
How long can producers not pass that along? Or do we have a broader issue here with trustworthy numbers, because Mad King Ludwig is in charge?
The current rate of food inflation is running 56% higher than the average rate for the entire prior decade and more.
Nothing would sing "we can't fix it" more than a rate cut in September, but three in the Autumn would shout "we don't care!"
But of course overall inflation is what CNBC wants to trumpet because there was an expectation for higher at 2.8% yoy and they got lower.
But one could just as easily say the tariffs are to blame for the higher than expected core rate at 3.1% instead of 3%.
But that wouldn't be cheerleading the markets, now would it?
Consumer prices rise 2.7% annually in July, less than expected amid tariff worries
If you thought the jobs numbers were unbelievable before, just wait.
Like everyone expected, except for Donald Trump, who has never been to Realville.
This is a fabulous tribute to the man who kept his head while all others were losing theirs.
... One of NASA’s most traveled astronauts in the agency’s first decade, Lovell flew four times — Gemini 7, Gemini 12, Apollo 8 and Apollo 13 — with the two Apollo flights riveting the folks back on Earth.
In 1968, the Apollo 8 crew of Lovell, Frank Borman and William Anders was the first to leave Earth’s orbit and the first to fly to and circle the moon. They could not land, but they put the U.S. ahead of the Soviets in the space race. Letter writers told the crew that their stunning pale blue dot photo of Earth from the moon, a world first, and the crew’s Christmas Eve reading from Genesis saved America from a tumultuous 1968.
But the big rescue mission was still to come. That was during the harrowing Apollo 13 flight in April 1970. Lovell was supposed to be the fifth man to walk on the moon. But Apollo 13′s service module, carrying Lovell and two others, experienced a sudden oxygen tank explosion on its way to the moon. The astronauts barely survived, spending four cold and clammy days in the cramped lunar module as a lifeboat. ...
“I think in the history of space flight, I would say that Jim was one of the pillars of the early space flight program,” Gene Kranz, NASA’s legendary flight director, once said. ...
The Apollo 13 crew of Lovell, Haise and Swigert was on the way to the moon in April 1970, when an oxygen tank from the spaceship exploded 200,000 miles from Earth.
That, Lovell recalled, was “the most frightening moment in this whole thing.” Then oxygen began escaping and “we didn’t have solutions to get home.”
“We knew we were in deep, deep trouble,” he told NASA’s historian.
Four-fifths of the way to the moon, NASA scrapped the mission. Suddenly, their only goal was to survive. ...
Consumers are racing to buy electric vehicles before a fast-approaching deadline to claim tax credits worth up to $7,500, according to auto analysts.
Legislation championed by Republicans on Capitol Hill and signed by President Donald Trump in July eliminates the tax breaks — available for new, used and leased EVs — after Sept. 30.
The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act had originally offered the tax breaks to consumers through 2032.
“We’re expecting Q3 may be [a] record for EV sales because of the tax incentives going away,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, a senior analyst at Cox Automotive.
“People are rushing out” to buy, she said.
Consumers purchased nearly 130,100 new EVs in July, the second-highest monthly sales tally on record, behind roughly 136,000 sold in December, according to Cox Automotive data. The July figures represent a 26.4% increase from June and nearly 20% increase year-over-year, Streaty said.
The share of EV sales in July also accounted for about 9.1% of total sales of passenger vehicles that month, the largest monthly share on record, according to Cox.
“We’re seeing significant volume in new EVs,” said Liz Najman, director of market insights at Recurrent, an EV marketplace and data provider. ...
Learn to code, they said.
... Starting next year, the legislation caps the amount of federal loans students can borrow for graduate school at $100,000 over a lifetime — and sets a lifetime loan limit of $200,000 for professional programs, such as medical, dental or law school. Grad PLUS loans will also be eliminated entirely. Those changes go into effect for new borrowers on July 1, 2026. ...
However, for aspiring doctors, the limits may mean drastic changes. The average cost of medical school already exceeds $200,000. At private institutions, the average cost is more than $300,000, according to 2024 data from the Association of American Medical Colleges. ...
William Beach, a 2017 Trump appointee and McEntarfer’s immediate predecessor at BLS, also sharply criticized her firing.
“The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau,” Beach posted on X.
“This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system,” Beach added in a statement. “The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news.” ...
President Donald Trump on Monday reduced to less than two weeks his deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to either reach a peace deal with Ukraine or face massive “secondary tariffs” on Moscow’s trade partners.
Trump previously gave Putin a 50-day deadline, which was set to expire in early September.
But he said Monday that the U.S. does not see “any progress being made.” ...
The S&P 500 averaged 6,029.95 in June.
Using 1Q2025 GDP, current valuation of SPX 6,388.64 is 213, 163% higher than the 1938-2019 mean of 81.
Full year valuations around 213 were last seen in 1928-1930: 204, 248, and 228.
Real return since August 2000 through June 2025, two months shy of 25-years, is now up to 5.08% per annum vs. 10.75% per annum October 1975 through August 2000.
The mouse that roared.
6,358.91
From the story here:
... “So far, the tariff strategy Trump is pursuing looks very inspired, generating serious income, resulting in major investments in the U.S. to avoid the tariffs, and has yet to cause the disruptions and inflation that the naysayers said were certain,” said Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates. “The stock market certainly reflects no fear of negative consequences.” ...
