My favorite part about his new position is that if we don't allow our representatives to make money somehow, we'll stop attracting talent to Washington, D.C.
You know, like Trump, whose primary talent is corruption.
💋
Sunday, May 17, 2026
Silver is still up 6.14% year to date, gold 5.09% even as energy prices march higher
But SPX is up 8.02% ytd.
WTI is up 84.01% ytd.
VGENX is up 20.88% ytd.
Investment grade corporate securities:
VWESX is down 1.54% ytd.
VFICX is down 0.65% ytd.
VFSTX is up 0.27% ytd.
US Treasury securities:
VUSUX is down 2.52% ytd.
VFIUX is down 1.05% ytd.
VFIRX is up 0.16% ytd.
Inflation:
CPI (CPIAUCSL) is up 3.77% year over year in April.
PCE (PCEPI) is up 3.49% yoy in March.
Nominal Broad Dollar Index:
April: 119.03
1Q2026: 119.01
2025: 122.75
5Y: 119.94
GDP, Compound Annual Growth Rate
5Y: 7.031% nominal, 2.775% real
Daleep Singh: I personally don’t think the bond-vigilante trade will be alive very long
The bond market is flashing a warning over Iran. A veteran of energy geopolitics explains the risk
... A deal would have to be guaranteed by a trusted third party. There’s no trust at all between the U.S. and Tehran right now, because the bombs have been dropping every time they’ve sat down to negotiate. That’s where China comes in, and I’ll be interested to hear more details of what was said and agreed in Beijing [during Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping]. ...
You have got to be kidding me.
China is the primary beneficiary of the world's sanctioned oil.
Global oil will pick demand destruction and recession in order to save itself once visible supply falls closer to 6.8 billion barrels
Global oil stockpiles could hit record lows if Strait of Hormuz remains closed
... Inventories were near a decade high at just over 8 billion barrels at the end of February, Swiss bank UBS estimated in a Tuesday report. By end of April, stockpiles fell to 7.8 billion barrels, UBS analysts said.
Inventories will approach record lows of 7.6 billion barrels by end of May if demand remains the same month over month, the UBS analysts said. Inventories falling to that level would stress the supply chain, JPMorgan analysts said in an April 30 note.
Billions of barrels in inventory may sound like a lot but the reality is that only about 800 million barrels are available without straining the system, the JPMorgan analysts said. The rest is needed to keep pipelines and tanks filled at minimum levels so the supply chain operates efficiently, they said.
“Like blood pressure in the human body, the issue is circulation,” said Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy. “The system does not fail because oil disappears, it fails because the circulation network no longer has enough working volume.”
Oil inventories would fall to a critically low level of 6.8 billion barrels by September if Hormuz is still closed at that time, JPMorgan forecast. Product inventories would hit critical levels sooner in July or August, according to a forecast from Rapidan Energy.
The global economy would “seize up, with critical transportation infrastructure unable to source fuel at any price,” Rapidan analysts said in May 7 note.
But inventories are very unlikely to reach these critically low levels, the analysts said. Instead, oil and product prices will spike to curtail demand which will cause “a severe economic contraction.”
“That’s likely to happen before 3Q26,” the Rapidan analysts said.
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