Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Paper tiger Trump in the news

 
 

 
 
 

 
 

The biggest number in this story is $293.6 million

 Wake me when the New York Post writes a story entitled:
 
Trump's $75 billion ICE Police State rammed through right-wing Congress at taxpayer expense under phony reconciliation rules
 

The New York Times on the global economy had me and then it lost me

Because it, like too many commentators, uses an obsolete dollar index in DXY, which measures dollar strength or weakness relative to just SIX currencies: EUR, JPY (!), GBP (!), CAD (!), SEK (!), CHF (!).
 
The Federal Reserve has developed broader indices weighted to the countries the U.S. trades with the most.
 
U.S. GDP is $31.1 trillion. 
EURO ZONE GDP: $16.5 trillion.
Japan: $4.3 trillion.
Great Britain: $3.6 trillion.
Canada: $2.3 trillion.
Sweden: $0.6 trillion.
Switzerland: $1 trillion.
Global GDP: $117 trillion.

 

 
 ... It’s as if cars, instead of slowing down at a flashing yellow light as expected, started speeding up. ...
 
The traditional connection between the American economy’s performance and the value of the dollar has also been snapped. Uncertainty tends to increase the dollar’s value compared with other currencies as investors seek a safe haven in risky times. But the dollar has sunk to its lowest level in years. ...
 
Analysts backed down on their predictions that Mr. Trump’s tariff blitz last spring would cause higher prices ... 

 

Even by DXY standards, the dollar is not weak at 97, well within its long term average range between 95 and 105.
 
And The New York Times is ignoring that wholesale prices increased at a higher rate in 2025 than in either 2024 or 2023. 
 
 
Traffic fatalities surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research highlights the fact that disadvantaged communities bore the brunt of the increase and calls for holistic solutions to promote equitable access to safe transportation.

 

 


Yes, the dollar weakened in January 2026, but within a big picture environment of a strong dollar not a weak dollar

The nominal broad U.S. Dollar Index last averaged below 120 in December 2023.

Gold and silver climbed to all time highs in January 2026, defying the standard narrative that precious metals are the haven of choice when the dollar is weak. 

 

117.89 on Jan 30th

119.22 average in Jan 2026


Average yields on 20s and 30s are higher in January 2026 than when Trump was elected in November 2024, voting Nay Nay on what's going on

 

Yield on the 10Y is still lower but is saying Me Too


Gold and silver rebound but remain well off their highs, about -12% for gold, almost -29% for silver

Gold and silver bugs view it as a buying opportunity.

 Gold and silver rebound, pulling global mining stocks and precious metal ETFs higher

... Spot gold was last up about 5.5% to $4,921.29 per ounce. Gold futures in New York gained more than 6%, hovering at around $4,936.60 as of 4:48 a.m. ET.

Spot silver rose over 9% to settle at around $86.70 per ounce. Silver futures in New York were up 12% at $86.49. ...

Gold had hit a record high of $5,594.82 on Thursday January 29th, silver hit a record high of $121.64 the same day.