Showing posts with label stlouisfed.org. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stlouisfed.org. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

The decline of worker hours in America

 In 1966 all the hours worked by all the full time and part time workers divided by the civilian employment level peaked at about 35.35 hours per worker per week. That's full time level work. That's prosperity.

The flood of Baby Boomers, especially Baby Boomer women under the influence of feminism and the social revolution of the 1960s, and also foreign born workers after the Immigration Act of 1965, into the labor markets after the mid-1960s reduced hours per week per worker by almost 11%, not forming a new stable bottom until the 1980s at about 31.5 hours per week.

Increased labor supply = fewer hours to go around = less prosperity.

By 1999, when peak Baby Boom had passed 40 years of age, hours per week had risen as high as 32.68 per worker per week. That was the end result of the good times kick-started by Ronald Reagan twenty years prior, which hit in four waves: 1984-85, 1989, 1995, and 1999.

But the whole subsequent period 2003-2019 inclusive fell apart.

Many, many troubles reduced hours worked per worker by almost 7% between 1999 and 2009, not the least of which were admission of China to the World Trade Organization in 2001, and the Great Recession.

Hours per week per worker have risen again as of 2022, but only to the old bottom, at around 31.57 per week.

Median real earnings per week are up just $38 since 1979.

Will that be As Good As It Gets?

 




 

 

Friday, May 16, 2025

The slavish respect for the consensus estimates for inflation and everything else vs. the actual levels viewed historically is as nutty as anything promoted in partisan politics

Consumer sentiment slides to second-lowest on record as inflation expectations jump after tariffs

... Recent inflation data has not shown a tariff bump, as both the consumer price index and producer price index for April came in below consensus estimates. ...

Who gives a damn about whether the consensus estimates got it right or not? What matters is what the damn rates are! 

And the rates are much higher when compared with the immediate pre-pandemic rates.

Would those have come down in recent months without the spectre of a Trump tariff regime looming in the wings?

Well we'll never know, now will we?

It's all so infuriatingly stupid.

Meanwhile consumer sentiment and surveys of same don't hold much water with me.

I conclude only one thing from them: that our tolerance for inflation has weakened dramatically. We were a much hardier people in the past, and now we are soft and melt like snowflakes at the slightest hint of bad news.

In November 1974 cpi inflation peaked at 12.2% year over year. The then Michigan survey of consumer sentiment plunged to 57.6 by February 1975.

But in April 2025 cpi inflation is only 2.3% year over year, and the Michigan survey has dropped to 50.8 from 52.2 in April.

It's comic.

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Federal Open Market Committee says inflation remains somewhat elevated and the economic outlook is increasingly uncertain, leaves DFF between 4.25 and 4.5, i.e. 4.33

 

Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. ...

More.

Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Trump will stop at nothing in his quest for imperial power and will destroy the credibility of US Treasury debt

 

telegraph.co.uk

If you think it’s alarming now, just wait for Trump to wreck the bond market

The White House’s push for for expanded presidential power threatens US economic stability

 

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Donald Trump is systematically purging every US government institution, a pattern familiar to anybody who has studied the caudillo regimes of Latin America, or the playbook of today’s Putin-Orbán-Erdoğan prototypes.

It is a racing certainty that he will soon do the same to the Federal Reserve, forcing the central bank to cut interest rates into the teeth of rising inflation, with epic consequences for the world’s dollarised financial system and for €39 trillion (£33 trillion) of offshore dollar debt contracts and swaps.

Late last week he fired the head of the National Security Agency and its top officials at the behest of Laura Loomer, a fringe conspiracy theorist, who whispered into Trump’s ear that they were disloyal to the Maga movement.

He has already fired the heads of the FBI’s intelligence division, its counterterrorism division and criminal investigations division, as well as the heads of the Washington and New York offices.

He has fired the top brass of the US military, starting with a preemptive strike on the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. An earlier chairman – General Mark Milley – refused to ratify Trump’s attempted coup d’etat on Jan 6 2021.

“We don’t take an oath to a king, or to a tyrant or dictator, and we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We take an oath to the constitution,” said Milley in his parting shot.

But Trump also fired the three judge advocates general, who are legally independent by Congressional statute and have the authority to decide which military orders should be disobeyed – such as Trump’s order to “just shoot” American protesters, on American soil, during the Black Lives Matter saga.

That obstacle will not recur. Pete Hegseth, the defence secretary, said the three judges had been sacked to stop them posing any “roadblocks to orders given by the commander-in-chief”.

You can go through the list, agency by agency, extending to the universities and private law firms, and even to the muzzled editorials of some of America’s once great newspapers: the purge is Bolshevik in ambition.

Does anybody in their right mind think that Trump will spare the Fed’s Jerome Powell as the two men gear up for an almighty clash over US monetary policy? “CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!” bellowed Trump in capital letters on Truth Social on Friday.

The Fed will indeed cut rates this year but not until it is able to see through the confusing blizzard of tariffs and the ricochet retaliation of an angry world.

Powell told Congress that the tariff shock is much bigger than expected and may set off “persistent” inflation rather than just a one-off jump in the price level. He came close to damning Trumponomics as a recipe for low-growth stagflation. That is a red flag to a bull.

The current debate over whether or not Trump has the legal power to fire Powell entirely misunderstands the character of the Maga revolution. America’s rule of law is for guidance only these days.

You could say it was ever thus. Franklin Roosevelt tried to pack the Supreme Court after it blocked the New Deal. He failed, and unleashed tax investigations to settle scores, as did Richard Nixon. But Trump is an order of magnitude more outrageous.

Powell will not go without a fight. “I will never, ever, ever leave this job voluntarily until my term ends under any circumstances,” he said during Trump 1.0.

Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said the administration could sideline Powell by appointing a “shadow” Fed chairman, who could steer the markets by issuing forward guidance. But this does not overcome resistance from the Fed board and the hawkish regional presidents.

A secretive team of Trump loyalists drew up a 10-page report before the election proposing more radical measures. These include forcing the Fed to “align policy with administration goals” or even to make the president an “acting” member of the Fed board.

Trump could purge members of the seven-strong Fed board one by one until they get the message. The law states that the president can terminate the 14-year term of a Fed governor “for cause”, usually meaning malfeasance or neglect.

But Trump has just abused his tariff powers on an heroic scale by invoking fictitious “emergencies”. He could no doubt stretch the meaning of “for cause” to anything he wants. The Supreme Court has the last say, but Trump-appointed justices have already shown a strong leaning towards an imperial presidency.

In any case, there are other methods to bring the Fed to heel.

Maga vigilantes are intimidating American judges by having pizzas delivered to their homes – a mob tactic to say “we know where you live”. So we can assume that recalcitrant members of the Federal Open Market Committee will face this sort of treatment.

The major US banks are raising their inflation forecasts to 4pc or higher this year. This inflation will hit before the last three price shocks – Covid, the Putin commodity spike and Biden’s overspending – have faded from immediate memory. It is exactly how inflation psychology becomes embedded.

A variant happened in the 1970s. Nixon bullied the Fed into expansionary policies, with some choice language on “the myth of the autonomous Fed” that later surfaced in the Oval Office tapes.

Loose money stoked inflation, so Nixon ordered a freeze on prices and wages in 1971, declaring war on “gougers”. It was very popular. Illiterate policies often are.

If Trump succeeds in extracting rate cuts from the Fed and tax cuts from Congress, the same problem is going to arise. So my assumption is that he will blame the symptoms and will resort to price controls.

The elephantine difference is that US federal debt was 34pc of GDP in 1971. Today it is 122pc on the Fed measure, and galloping upwards. The fiscal deficit is over 6pc as far as the eye can see.

The US does not have the domestic savings to fund this debt appetite. The savings rate has collapsed to 0.6pc of national income. It was 12pc in the 1960s.

Foreign investors have been plugging the gap. This soaks up a large part of the world’s savings – the underlying cause of America’s trade deficit.

If you think the stock market gyrations of the last few days are terrifying, just wait until Trump destroys the credibility of the Fed and of US treasury debt, the anchor of the global system.

He could order a captive Fed to relaunch quantitative easing and buy the bonds, but to do that when inflation is running hot would be seen by the whole world as naked fiscal dominance. It would set off a price spiral and a collapse of the currency – the sort of outcome seen over the decades in Latin America, or Erdoğan’s Turkey.

The end destination is a return to US capital controls to stop foreign funds and US investors from taking their money out of America. A man willing to impose 116pc tariffs – including pre-existing ones –  on Chinese goods and shut down the biggest bilateral trade relationship in the world as if it were a TV reality show will stop at nothing.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/08/trump-sell-off-is-bad-wait-until-wreck-us-bond-market/

Thursday, March 13, 2025

Republican Senator Mike Crapo is full of Orwellian crap, says extending the Trump tax cuts which increased deficits by $1.7 trillion won't keep increasing deficits


 

 If you're not changing the tax code, you're simply extending current policy—you are not increasing the deficit. The bottom line here is that it's a $4.3 trillion tax increase, not a $4.3 trillion deficit increase. 

-- Mike Crapo 

Most of the tax cuts passed by Republicans during President Donald Trump’s first term, in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), which raised deficits by $1.7tn, are set to expire at the end of 2025. ... Without new legislation, current law requires tax rates to return to their pre-TCJA levels. Maintaining the current policy would cost nearly $5tn in lost revenue over the next 10 years. 

-- Oren Cass

Passing economic legislation through the US Senate can by-pass the 60-vote rule if the legislation does not increase deficits beyond 10 years. 

The total public debt has ballooned by over $16 trillion under the Trump tax cuts.

Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Imbeciles Trump and Musk claim millions over the age of 100 get Social Security when it is 89,106 people in December 2024 lol

Trump loves Whoppers.

Smell the farts of nothing has changed.

In 2015 Trump used Rush Limbaugh Math and came up with 42% unemployed lol. "Not in labor force" is not a measure of unemployment.

These Social Security claims are loonier than Joe Biden and Kamala Harris saying 200 million and more had already died of COVID in the United States during their campaign for president-vice president in 2020. Joe corrected himself eventually. Trump and Musk WILL NOT.

... The [Social Security] issue has been repeatedly identified by inspectors general at the agency, but the Social Security Administration has argued that updating old records was costly and unnecessary.

Per the agency’s online records, just 89,106 people — not tens of millions — over the age of 99 received retirement benefits in December 2024, out of the more than 70 million people who receive benefits each year.

It’s a “humiliating mistake for anyone else to make, but they’re doubling and tripling down on it,” said Kathleen Romig, director of Social Security and disability policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning think tank that addresses government spending. ...

More.

Meanwhile the US population 65 years old and older was only about 59 million in 2023. Hello.

 




Monday, February 24, 2025

In the aggregate US Treasury yields haven't moved much since the end of November, after which duration began to normalize, but looky here

 On Nov 29, 2024 the yield curve averaged 4.356 in the aggregate, after which we began to see duration normalize.

On Feb 21, 2025 it averages 4.357.

Now, however, there are seven securities in the Bills category, not just six, with Treasury rolling out the new 1.5-month (6-week) security as part of debt-ceiling-forced "extraordinary measures". There are five in the Notes, and two in the Bonds.

Duration normalization has now partly reversed because of the extraordinary measures, at least on a weekly basis, with yields for Notes once again falling below those for Bills on average on Friday.

If you count just the traditional 1MO, 3MO, 6MO, and 1Y among the Bills, the Bills yield average is nearly identical to Notes at 4.2825.

These falling yields may be both signaling and spurring increased purchasing of UST, including among the Notes to lock in an anticipated disappearance of opportunity as Bills issuance surges to fund the Treasury General Account. The increased issuance of Bills means yields fall across the curve, at least temporarily, as investors lock in.

The special 6-week security rolled out at 4.41 on 2/18 and was paying 4.39 on Friday vs. only 4.15 for the 1Y and 4.42 for the 10Y, the latter's lowest yield all month. Falling yields for the 10Y is a specific goal of the Treasury under Trump. Evidently the temporary 6-week Bill is helping them achieve that . . . for now.

Reported Feb 5 and Feb 6:

Bessent's focus on 10-year US Treasury yield may let Fed off the hook

..."The president wants lower interest rates and ... in my talks with him, he and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury," Bessent said. "He is not calling on the Fed to lower rates. He believes that if we ... deregulate the economy, if we get this tax bill done, if we get energy down, then rates will take care of themselves and the dollar will take care of itself." ...

 10-year Treasury yield drops as traders digest news on issuance, fresh data

... The [Treasury] department also said it will be issuing more short-term bills than usual as it uses “extraordinary measures” to keep the government operating while Congress battles over the debt limit. That announcement came despite new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously criticizing his predecessor, Janet Yellen, for issuing unusually large amounts of shorter-term debt. ...

 


 


 

Thursday, January 30, 2025

On the surface today's report of real gross domestic product is actually pretty good


 

 The first estimate of real GDP for 4Q2024 and for annual 2024 has been reported here, 2.3% and 2.8% respectively.

On a big picture basis, the compound annual growth rate for real annual GDP 2020-2024 came in at 3.55% per annum, which compares very favorably with 1929-2007 at 3.45% per annum.

Unfortunately 2007-2024 is still wallowing at 1.957% per annum.

The country got over the Great Depression, but we're still working on the Great Recession.

Sunday, January 12, 2025

US Treasury yields are steepening and by duration are normalizing

 This is actually a good thing.

Longer dated securities should pay more than shorter, unlike most of 2024 when Bills paid far more.

Bills yields on average on Friday match the Daily Federal Funds rate exactly, falling in tandem with it in 2024 from the 5.33 range to 4.33 now. They've been pretty stable at this level for five weeks now.

The fall in Bills yields actually ran in front of the Fed decision to make the first rate cut in September by many months.

The fall commenced after May when the Fed announced it would institute a slight decrease to its tighter money policy through balance sheet operations involving UST beginning in June.

Bills yields fell hard for four months into September even as core inflation year over year remained flat at 2.7% over the period. Investors locked in higher but rapidly disappearing return.

Yields on Notes and Bonds also plunged, but against most predictions they rebounded in the face of the Fed rate cuts, which is quite amusing. Longs got their lunch eaten.

The simplest explanation is that longer dated securities anticipate more inflation, and the Fed simply pushes on a string. Bond vigilantes demanded more return for the rising risk.

People who didn't appreciate fixed income turning into a casino like the stock market hid out in cash and did just fine. VMRXX returned 5.24% last year.

There are over $6 trillion in T-bills outstanding at the end of 2024 vs. $2 trillion to start 2018, out of a total of approximately $28 trillion total UST outstanding.

Unfortunately for buyers of houses and cars, long money is going to cost you more, as yields on Notes and Bonds climb again in anticipation of recalcitrant inflation and increased deficit spending under Trump.

The average four year new auto loan was 9.36% and the 30-year mortgage 6.93% last week.


 




Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Friday, November 1, 2024

Stocks remain wildly overvalued and seriously underperforming

 The S&P 500 averaged 5,792.32 in October 2024 (the all-time high was on 10/18 at 5,864.67).

Nominal GDP was updated on Oct 30th at $29.349924 trillion for 3Q2024.

That yields a ratio of SPX/GDP of 197.35 vs. median of 81.

Stocks remain wildly, obscenely, off-the-chart overvalued.

The formula is GDPx = SPX.

29.35(81) = 2,377.

The market would have to fall 3,415 points just to hit median valuation at current GDP, or about 59%.

You can see a similar analysis here, where the median is 79.7 vs. current 200.7.

Real return from SPX since Aug 2000 is now about 5.1% per annum vs. 7.4% before that (including the Great Depression, the depression of 1920, and every collapse before that going back to 1871), 31% worse.

We are living through developments echoing the lunatic era of the 1920s, which ended in tears.

Owe no man anything . . ..

 



 


 

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Sometimes it's not the economy stupid: Headline employment under Obama didn't recover until May 2014, but he got re-elected in 2012 anyway

 Six years and four months went by: Jan 2008-May 2014.

And economic confidence actually declined from -11 in 2012 to -10 in 2014 when it did!

It's one of the craziest things in US political history, comparable to FDR getting re-elected throughout the Great Depression, which his economic experimentation only made worse.

By October 2012, 72% said the effects of the Great Recession were still the most important problem, compared to 43% today in October 2024, but it didn't matter that Obama wasn't solving it. He beat Romney anyway.

Is this one of those sometimes?

The same phenomenon may be happening today, but in reverse.

Harris stands to lose despite economic indicators which are chugging along in her favor, or at least not falling apart, to which those 43% seem oblivious.

Civilian employment in July and September 2024 remains near the November 2023 peak. Core inflation is still too high at 2.7%, but it isn't in the 5s anymore like it was for four straight quarters. Congress has thrown the book at the economy since 2Q2020, with nominal GDP growing at an astounding 9.84% compound annual rate because of pandemic spending. That's been a double-edged sword, however, exploding the national debt, inflation, and interest rates.

But economic confidence is Obama-like negative, and has been since it crashed during the pandemic in April 2020 to -32 from its highest level in 20 years under Trump just two months before, in February 2020 at +41.

Trump didn't shut down the economy in 2020, but governors sure did. It was a stark demonstration of just how quickly the wrong leadership can make everything go to hell in a hand basket overnight. The people today aren't wrong to lack confidence.

Ominously for incumbent VP Harris, Gallup thinks 2024 is most analogous to 1992, when Americans booted the incumbent Bush 41 even though the recession had ended more than a year before in 1991.

Majority of Americans Feel Worse Off Than Four Years Ago

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago, while 39% say they are better off and 8% volunteer that they are about the same. The 2024 response is most similar to 1992 among presidential election years in which Gallup has asked the question. ...

With a majority of Americans feeling they are not better off than four years ago, economic confidence remaining low, and less than half of Americans saying now is a good time to find a quality job, the economy will be an important consideration at the ballot box this year. As inflation persists and economic concerns dominate voters' minds, the upcoming election may hinge on which candidate can best address these pressing issues.

 






Friday, October 18, 2024

We still live in a world of very diminished economic growth since The Great Recession

Real GDP 2007-2023, 16 years, compound annual growth rate: 1.905%.

All the other years, 1929-2007: 3.448%.

We're behind that by almost 45%.

Compare the 16 years of The Great Depression and WWII, 1929-1945: 4.743%.

Or the 16 years prior to The Great Recession, 1991-2007: 3.253%.

This is bad, but you knew that.

Friday, September 20, 2024

CNBC fact-checks Joe Biden, now that it doesn't matter

 But the article name-checks Donald Trump five times because he's an opponent of Fed decisions.

There's a whole movement out there that wants to End the Fed, composed of Republicans, Democrats, and libertarians, which CNBC is loathe to mention.

Many of them argue that the US 2-year Treasury Note should be the benchmark for the Federal Funds Effective Rate, not the whim of the Fed Chair and the Federal Open Market Committee, who are un-elected, well-connected, and VERY WELL PAID elites who watch out primarily for the interests of the banksters.

For example, despite the disastrous Zero Interest Rate Policy post-Great Recession, DGS2 resisted it and outran DFF throughout the period under Obama and Trump, and anticipated the recent inflationary outburst by starting to rise in the spring of 2021, a full year before the Fed moved to "combat inflation" by raising the funds rate in the spring of 2022. 

Similarly DGS2 also started to fall in November of 2023 despite no change to Fed policy, anticipating the recent decline of inflation rates by almost a year.

The role of the US Treasury Secretary, AS MUCH A CREATURE of the Executive as the Fed Chair, is also huge for interest rates because the Secretary decides how to divvy up the debt securities for auction by duration.

Biden's Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been in the news for driving up the issuance in T-bills to 22% when 15% has been customary, which has contributed to longer rates falling and stocks rising, just in time for the election.

But the costs of this have been dramatic, financing deficit spending at the highest rates and driving interest payments on the debt to the third spot in the budget, behind only Social Security and Medicare.




Sunday, February 4, 2024

This is your periodic reminder that the net worth of U.S. households is $151 trillion but there's only $2.3 trillion fiat currency in circulation anyway

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TNWBSHNO

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRCIR 

Meanwhile all the gold and silver in the world hardly close the gap: 


 

 

Thursday, November 30, 2023

Core pce inflation, which excludes food and energy measures, is still high at 3.5% year over year in October 2023, down 0.2 points from September or 5.4%

 Price increases at 3.5% instead of 3.7% year over year. This level remains outside of most people's experience since the late 1990s.

The broad measure fell to 3.0% from 3.4%. The energy goods and services component yoy has been negative, that is deflationary, for eight months in a row. The food component was up 2.0% year over year in October but is now in its tenth month of declines out of twelve on a year over year measure monthly.

Declining energy input costs have been the story behind declining inflation measures overall, primarily natural gas which is twice as important to the U.S. economy as gasoline on a BTU basis.

The Biden administration's green energy policy is at war with the reason for the happy circumstance of declining inflation measures it finds itself in, and Biden could be sailing to re-election if he were instead supporting fossil fuel production, which would slay the inflation dragon dead.




Friday, November 3, 2023

There's a lot of clucking out there about multiple job holding

 Multiple job holding seems high at nearly 8.4 million, here.

But as a percent of the employed it is not, currently at 5.2%. In the go-go 1990s it was above 6%.

Multiple job holding generally is a sign of opportunity and good times, not economic stress and bad times. Obviously there is always a percentage of the workforce which can't find full-time work and works two part-time jobs. They now number almost 2 million, a very small part of the employment universe, which is near all-time highs in the range of 161 million.

Thursday, October 26, 2023

Tell me, Bwana: What mean GDP, why important?

 Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning here:

3Q2023 nominal GDP, first estimate: $27.6235 trillion
Nominal increase year over year in 3Q: 6.27%
Compound annual growth rate since 3Q2000: 4.375%
Compound annual growth rate 3Q1947-3Q2000: 7.275%
Underperformance from post-war, last 12 months: 13.8%
Underperformance from post-war, last 23 years: 39.86%
Current S&P 500 ~ 4175
Current ratio of S&P 500 to GDP: 151
Median ratio of same 1938-2019: 81
Current overvaluation of S&P 500 from median: 86.4%
Current fair value of S&P 500: 2238   

Monday, October 23, 2023

US Treasury yields making new highs for this cycle as of Oct 19, 2023

Massive Treasury issuance to pay for massive pandemic spending has driven yields higher.
 
It's the law of supply and demand: Increase the supply of US Treasury debt and the price goes down.
 
Previously issued securities paying lower interest rates drop in price because they are much more plentiful in comparison with the new issues paying higher rates which investors demand.
 
Who wants 'em?
 
Banks are estimated to be stuck with these dogs in quantities approaching what the Fed has let roll off, which is what they also must do. The collateral backing banks, insurance companies, pension funds, et cetera et cetera et cetera, suffers.  

The Federal Reserve Bank's role as a big buyer in the bond market has been curtailed since 2Q2022, removing its big price support role. As of 3Q2023 the balance sheet is down $768 billion as securities mature. That's about $51 billion rolling off per month, and no net buying to replace it.
 
The Fed has also raised the Federal Funds Rate to an average of 5.33 to combat inflation.
 
So yields have risen for such reasons to these records for this cycle to date, but it's all predicated on the US Treasury having to dilute the supply:
 
1MO 6.02 5/26/23 (debt ceiling disagreement)
3MO 5.63 10/6/23
6MO 5.61 8/25/23
1Y    5.49  9/27/23
 
2Y 5.19 10/17/23
3Y 5.03 10/18/23
5Y 4.95 10/19/23
7Y 5.00 10/19/23
10Y 4.98 10/19/23
 
20Y 5.30 10/19/23
30Y 5.11 10/19/23.

In the aggregate as of Oct 20 yields are up a net 22% year over year to an average of 5.25692 from 4.30846 when all the wizards of smart said they couldn't possibly go any higher without breaking something.

They're still saying that.



 

Sunday, October 15, 2023

Alfredo Ortiz for The Messenger discovers that permanently higher food prices are sticking it to consumers

 He points to food prices having gone up about 20% since Biden took office, here, because this index is up that much since Biden took office. He wonders why food prices are actually up much more than that.

He obviously doesn't understand how this works.

On a quarterly measure, and year over year, the increases for this index are as follows after Biden taking office in 1Q2021:

2Q2021 0.9%
3Q         3.3%
4Q         6.1%
1Q2022 8.7%
2Q       11.6%
3Q       13.2%
4Q       12.1%
1Q2023  9.9%
2Q          5.9%
3Q          3.0%.
 
Assume the worst example from the shopper's list:
 
"A pound of turkey breast went from $3.14 to $6.72, a 114% increase" from late 2020 until now.
 
$3.14 goes to $3.17 in 2Q2021, and so on down the list until you come up with $6.41 by 3Q2023, pretty close to the $6.72 from the example. Remember this index is for all food at home, not turkey specifically nor any other individual food item. Some food prices go up more than others. 
 
There's actually a turkey index. It's up a whopping 214%, not 20%. The shopper could be paying a lot more than $6.72 right now. Year over year prices were up 20% in 2021, and 72% in 2022 in the wake of an avian flu epidemic which wiped out the supply. In the first half of 2023 prices were up another 47% year over year.

Unless there's actual deflation in overall food prices, that is, sustained negative year over year reports instead of quarterly increase yoy after quarterly increase, higher prices are here to stay.