Prices of 20 food items posted new all time highs on a quarterly average basis under Donald Trump in 3Q2025

 The 20 foods shown making new all time highs represent 43% of the 46 foods I have been tracking in the FRED database at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. Prices are per pound unless otherwise noted.

Beef Products:

Round Roast $8.182

All Uncooked Roasts 8.72 

Choice Chuck Roast 8.839

Round Steak 9.04

All Uncooked Steaks 12.12

Choice Sirloin Steak 14.003

Ground Chuck 6.43

100% Ground Beef 6.298

All Uncooked Ground 6.593

 

Other Meats:

 

Whole Chicken 2.072

Pork 3.716

 

Dairy Products:

 

Ice Cream 6.425/half gallon

Cheddar Cheese 6.071

 

Other Foods:

 

Orange Juice 4.682/12oz. frozen

Coffee 8.808 

Sugar 1.043 (two quarters in a row)

Bananas 0.664

Potato Chips 6.84

Chocolate Chip Cookies 5.179

Beer 1.832/pint 

The food inflation rate year over year under Trump I averaged 1.89%, under Trump II in September 2025 it is 3.1% or 64% higher

 

Don't forget to turn down the thermostat before you leave for work after your 66% more expensive Trump breakfast

 Piped utility gas used to average $1.04 per therm under Trump I.

Under Trump II it's $1.61 in September 2025, 55% more.

 

 

Sugar for your coffee used to average 62 cents per pound under Trump I, under Trump II it's $1.04 in September 2025, 68% more

 

Whole Milk averaged $3.12 per gallon under Trump I, under Trump II it's $4.13 in September 2025, 32% more

 

Whole Wheat Bread used to average $1.99 per pound under Trump I, under Trump II it's $2.77 in September 2025, 39% more

 

Bacon averaged $5.60 per pound under Trump I, under Trump II it's $7.29 in September 2025, 30% more

 

Orange Juice averaged $2.47 under Trump I, under Trump II it's $4.74 in September 2025, a new record high and 92% more than it used to be

 

Eggs averaged $1.53 per dozen under Trump I, under Trump II they average $3.49 per dozen in September 2025, 128% more

 

Can you afford even to wake up to Trump?

 Coffee hits new all time high in September 2025 of $9.14 per pound, 111% higher than it used to be.

Coffee averaged $4.33 per pound under Trump I. 

 

 

Immigrant worker shortage impacts produce quality at Sam's Club?

 I bought six heads of romaine lettuce yesterday like I usually do at Sam's Club every couple of weeks, for $4.46.

Such a deal, right? 

Well, this has never happened before in years of shopping at Sam's: the cores were rotten. I barely salvaged half of it. 

I also bought a five pound bag of organic carrots, for $3.62. That's always a great deal at Sam's, except this time all the carrots in the bin were THIN, THIN, THIN, and LIMP.

Summer weather is hard on such produce in any case, but I've been buying this stuff year round at Sam's for years and have never experienced this.

I should have taken the stuff back, but I do live in the country and I have compost piles. 

Worms gotta eat, same as buzzards.

 

 

  

Frozen orange juice concentrate, coffee, bananas, and chocolate chip cookies also made new record high average prices in July 2025

 

Frozen orange juice concentrate $4.641/12oz

Coffee $8.414/lb

Bananas $0.657

Chocolate Chip cookies $5.264

 

Even though bananas and chocolate chip cookies made new highs, they are good values adjusted for inflation since 1980. Bananas are 49% lower than they should be, and the cookies are 12% lower. Most US bananas come from Guatemala, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Honduras.

Coffee is running 3.9% ahead of its inflation adjusted price from July 1984, and OJ is running 3.4% ahead of its inflation adjusted price since July 1980.

All nearly fifty food items I track are still near their all time highs. 

We've had no fewer than seven spikes of serious food inflation running ahead of core inflation just since the year 2000.

Agricultural export prices also have soared since then. What a coincidence.

 

 

All eight beef prices I track made new record average highs in July 2025

Adjusted for inflation since July 1984, 100% ground beef should cost $3.88/lb in July 2025, but it's actually 61% higher than that.

 

  

100% Ground Beef $6.254/lb

Ground Chuck 6.338

Round Roast 7.909

All uncooked beef roasts 8.397

Choice chuck roast 8.439

Round steak 8.69

All uncooked beef steaks 11.875

Choice sirloin steak 13.554 

 

 

Adjusted for inflation since 1980, eggs should cost $3.03 a dozen in July 2025, instead they cost $3.60

 

CPI food inflation was 2.9% year over year in July 2025 vs. the 1.86% average 2009-2020 and we're supposed to be happy that the Fed might cut interest rates in September

S&P 500 jumps to record high as inflation report gives Fed green light to cut rates: Live updates

The current rate of food inflation is running 56% higher than the average rate for the entire prior decade and more.

Nothing would sing "we can't fix it" more than a rate cut in September, but three in the Autumn would shout "we don't care!" 

 

The cost of groceries is a major source of stress for 53% of US adults according to AP-NORC poll, followed by the cost of housing

... Esther Bland, 78, who lives in Buckley, Washington, said groceries are a “minor” source of stress — but only because her local food banks fill the gap. Bland relies on her Social Security and disability payments each month to cover her rent and other expenses — such as veterinary care for her dogs — in retirement, after decades working in an office processing product orders.

 

“I have no savings,” she said. “I’m not sure what’s going on politically when it comes to the food banks, but if I lost that, groceries would absolutely be a major source of stress.”

Bland’s monthly income mainly goes toward her electric, water and cable bills, she said, as well as care of her dogs and other household needs.

 

 “Soap, paper towels, toilet paper. I buy gas at Costco, but we haven’t seen $3 a gallon here in a long time,” she said. “I stay home a lot. I only put about 50 miles on my car a week.” ...

 

Bland, the Washington state retiree, said she’s paid for pet surgery with a pay-later plan. ...

 

More. 

 

 

LOL the Wall Street Journal found experts to say dynamic grocery pricing will never go up during the day between the aisle and the register

I remember the days when every grocery item came with a price tag. 

When those went away there was an outcry, saying shelf pricing would be manipulated to get you to buy the item at a lower displayed price but charge you more for it at the register because the price displayed was wrong.

You used to get the item for free if that happened.

Now it happens all the time, but all you get is a refund for the difference, IF YOU STAND IN LINE AT CUSTOMER SERVICE TO GET IT.

Every transaction is going to become a negotiation like we're a goddamn third world country. 

 

 Welcome to the Grocery Store Where Prices Change 100 Times a Day: Electronic shelf labels are spreading at grocery chains in Europe and the U.S., enabling instant price drops—and raising fears of surge pricing

... Prices can change up to 100 times a day at Reitan’s REMA 1000-branded grocery stores across Norway—and more often during holidays. The idea is to match or beat the competition with the touch of a button, says REMA 1000’s head of pricing, Partap Sandhu. “We lower the prices maybe 10 cents and then our competitors do the same, and it kind of gets to [be] a race to the bottom.”

 

It is a matter of time before Americans also see dynamic pricing on groceries, industry experts say. “All one has to do is visit the Netherlands or Norway,” says Ioannis Stamatopoulos, an associate professor who studies retail technology at the University of Texas at Austin’s business school. “That’s a window to the future.”

 

The prospect has raised alarms among U.S. lawmakers and consumers who fear electronic shelf labels in grocery stores will open the way for prices to go up as well as down—and even unleash surge pricing in the aisles. ...

 

As digital labels spread to U.S. stores, American consumers will likely see price changes as they shop in the future, says David Bellinger, a senior analyst at Mizuho Financial Group who covers retailers. He expects the changes will be infrequent or outside of store hours to avoid confusing or upsetting shoppers, and says they should primarily only go down: “Up would probably cause a lot of problems.” ...

The Detroit News: Harvest of hand-picked crops in Michigan in immediate peril due to Trump deportation program, prices set to rocket higher

 Editorial: Trump must act quickly to avert a harvest crisis

The immigration crisis at the southern border has been replaced by one in America's orchards and farm fields.

With harvest season about to begin in earnest, farmers are desperate for laborers to pick their fruit and vegetables. Already in the Pacific Northwest, much of the cherry crop was left to rot because of the shortage of agricultural workers.

The crisis will soon roll into Michigan, where apples, cherries, blueberries, asparagus and other crops are rapidly ripening. Hand-picked specialty crops are a $6.3 billion industry in Michigan, supporting 41,000 jobs.

The shortage of farm workers has been building for years, due to an aging agricultural workforce, competition from more lucrative and less grueling jobs and restrictions on immigrant labor.

This year, it is exacerbated by the Trump administration's crackdown on unauthorized immigrants and the deportation of those who have entered the country illegally.

Estimates are that 42% of farm workers are undocumented migrants. Recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids on farms employing migrants have frightened away many of those workers from the fields where they had been working.

But the work they do hasn't gone away. Fruit and vegetables still need to be harvested. If they're not, it will lead to food waste, shortages and higher prices on the grocery shelves.

When asked about the worker shortage, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the solution lies in greater mechanization of farms and matching the 34 million able bodied Americans who must find jobs or lose their Medicaid benefits with farmers who need workers.

While Rollins is correct that those who can work should be expected to, it's doubtful even the risk of losing health care benefits will coax the jobless into hot, backbreaking farm work.

Her solutions will take time and large capital investments. They won't save this year's harvest.

The Trump administration must take emergency action to assure there are enough workers to bring in the crops this summer and fall.

Rather than deporting migrants willing to fill essential jobs such as harvesting, the administration should grant them seasonal visas and a no-deportation guarantee as long as they are working on farms.

Beyond that, reform is needed for the H-2A visa program that allows farmers to legally employ temporary workers from another country. The application process is too complex and time-consuming. It must be simplified; farmers need help now.

Also at issue is the federal mandatory minimum wage for H-2A visa holders, now set at $18.50 an hour. That's nearly $8 an hour higher than the state minimum wage in Michigan. When added to housing and other costs for these workers, many farmers have to limit their use of the visas.

Longer term, resources should be devoted to recruiting domestic workers for the agriculture industry. Farmers are also being encouraged to raise wages for native-born workers, add benefits and improve working conditions.

All of that is expensive and will inevitably show up in grocery prices. But so will the shortages caused by allowing crops to rot in fields.

The most sensible option for this season is to back off deportation of farm workers while solutions are pursued for either replacing them or giving them legal status.

The $3.45 average price of gasoline in 2024 was not quite 7% higher than the inflation adjusted price of $3.23/gallon from 1978

 Gasoline prices are moderating slowly in 2025 even as the inflation-adjusted price rises to $3.27.

Gasoline actually averaged $3.27 in the first half of 2025, dead on the money for what it should cost if it were only adjusted for inflation since 1978.

Gasoline retailers like convenience stores don't make their money on gasoline, with profit margins on gasoline in the 2% range. They make it on stuff like milk, the free-market price of which is a great mystery. AI thinks the unregulated price of milk right now would be about $4.00/gallon.

At the corner convenience store near where I live, a gallon of whole milk is a whopping $4.99, but eight miles down the road at my grocery it's only $3.45, so it's a mark-up of 45% for the convenience. 

But my grocery offers a routine discount coupon of 60 cents per gallon of milk, which brings the price down to $2.85, which Sam's can't beat at $3.23. Milk is my grocery's loss leader to get me in the store, like rotisserie chicken is a loss leader for Sam's and Costco, or like gasoline.

Gasoline this morning at Sam's is $3.01/gallon.

My momma told me, you better shop around. 

Meanwhile average fuel economy in 2023 is 27.1 miles on a gallon of gasoline, up from about 17.6 in 1978.

Seems like we should be doing better in that department. 

 

Food items making new all time high average prices in the United States in June 2025

 

 All prices are FRED data from the St. Louis Fed in U.S. dollars.

 

The headlines are correct. Average beef prices are out of this world in June 2025:

Round Roast $7.762/lb

All Uncooked Beef Roasts $8.203 

Ground Chuck $6.103

Choice Chuck Roast $8.197 

100% Ground Beef $6.12

All Uncooked Ground Beef $6.342

All Uncooked Beef Steaks $11.491

Choice Sirloin Steak $12.923.

 

But that's not all:

Whole Chicken $2.086

Frozen Orange Juice Concentrate $4.493

Coffee $8.132

Potato Chips $6.815

Ice Cream $6.493.

 

Most of the other items in my list of over 40 basic food products remain near their average all time highs. Food price inflation was 3% year-over-year in June 2025. There has been no actual food price deflation since 2016.