This inflation is transitory

 

LOL: Donald Trump's crackpot 35% unemployment in February 2016 is 37% today

Jeffrey Snider:

In February of 2016, then-candidate Trump deployed his typical grandiose, exaggerated style after his win in the New Hampshire primary.

“Don't believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. The number's probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.

[T]he once fake unemployment rate has become his primary campaign symbol.

Big Fat Idiot Rush Limbaugh 2/5/2016:

We have an audio sound bite here from Obama ... He was heralding first-time unemployment rate as being under 5% for the first time in seven years ... Well, there’s a reason he said it. It’s because it’s the only way you can ignore the 94 million Americans not working, not in the labor force ... This is an abject joke. It’s a total joke.

Hello, maybe bank reserves are the problem, not the solution?

I don't think I've ever seen Jeff Snider shake his damn head: Tbills are the very best collateral in repo and the Fed has decided to lock them up

This is going to be highly . . . educational, but the Fed will still flunk out in the end.

When aiming your gun at the ground, make sure your foot is not in the way when you pull the trigger.

Jeffrey Snider explains the decline in bond yields to The Wall Street Journal's Andy Kessler, tells a clueless Fed what must be done

The Fed Can’t See Its Own Shadow 

Its asset purchases are squeezing nonbank lending and sinking long-term bond rates. ...

Shortages of long bonds—good collateral—are causing “relentless” demand and therefore lower yields. That’s why German long bonds have negative interest rates: not because losing money is a great investment, but because negative interest is the cost of doing business to get “pristine collateral” to use in repos.

This is how the global credit system—what Mr. Snider labels the Eurodollar market—now works. The Fed has become the lender of last resort for the global market, including banks and shadow banks. It’s about time its governors figure that out.

So what should they do? Encourage the Treasury to issue more of the long bonds the market is demanding: 30- or even 100-year. Feed the beast. Then stop quantitative easing: It doesn’t work and soaks up collateral. Next, stop paying interest on reserves. Maybe even create a nontradable “Treasury-R” to act as reserve currency elsewhere, freeing up more bonds. If history repeats, there are about 90 days until China repos roll over again.

Foreign holdings of US Treasury securities hit $6.636 trillion in June 2019, driving down yields

Nobody asks why US debt securities are so popular.

People like Jeffrey Snider of Alhambra know why, but nobody listens to him.

Jeffrey Snider: The whole global economy is in trouble, and it isn't because of a few billion in US tariffs on Chinese goods

Rather it is because hundreds of billions of dollars worth of liquidity keep disappearing since the Great Financial Crisis.

Jeffrey Snider: The last 11 years of real GDP worse overall than the Great Depression

 Told ya.

Are the Great Depression and the Last 11 Years Comparable?

In terms of modern calculation of real Gross Domestic Product, the last eleven years in the United States have been worse overall than the Great Depression. 

 

If this is an economic boom how come new home sales are at 1982 recession levels for a year and a half?

(h/t Jeffrey Snider)

Atheist George Will conflates economy and stock market, remains oddly superstitious about deficits

George Will forgets we've had trillion dollar deficits quite recently but without a stock market crash. 

The trillion dollar deficits recently were in:

2009 $1.41 trillion

2010 $1.29 trillion

2011 $1.29 trillion

2012 $1.08 trillion.

These deficits triggered nothing in particular except fevers among Republicans, but are associated with the misallocation of capital which produces L-shaped instead of V-shaped economic recoveries. Meanwhile that it's an L-shaped recovery is a concept which eludes George Will, eyes fixed as they are on his towering S&P 500 idol. But we do agree the economy isn't the best it's ever been as the president insists. The gap is now about $5 trillion and rising.

Here:

When He, or something, decides that today’s expansion, currently in its 111th month (approaching twice the 58-month average length of post-1945 expansions), has gone on long enough, the contraction probably will begin with the annual budget deficit exceeding $1 trillion.

If it's an economic boom why aren't inventories surging?

h/t Jeffrey Snider

The boom goes bust: "Investment activity is grinding to a full stop for the first time in China's modern history"

Also, "weakest consumer spending since 2003".

And, 46 consecutive months of industrial production at or below 8%, "unprecedented for modern China".

Jeffrey Snider, here.

Jeffrey Snider: Fix the suffering in the labor force or next time you might actually get socialism

Here:

The American labor force is suffering like it hasn’t since the 1930’s, but nobody seems willing to challenge Economists’ easily disproved claims.

Into that vacuum had swept Mr. Trump himself, but also Mr. Sanders. The mere election of the former didn’t immediately fix the problem; rather, things have gotten worse since the campaign ended (to be clear, it had nothing to do with Trump . . .). May Day is still only trending toward becoming an official holiday.

The face of the declining middle class in 2016 was concealed as 15 million more lived in doubled-up households than in 2005

Zillow reported (here) in December that working age adults in 2016 were living in doubled-up households at a rate of 30% compared with 21% in 2005.

That works out to roughly 32 million in 2005 at the 21% rate vs. 50 million in 2016 at the 30% rate, using the Working Age Population data from FRED.

Had the rate remained 21% in 2016, just 35 million would be living doubled-up instead of 50 million. 

That's 15 million more adults who can't afford to buy, and can't even afford to rent, thanks to the feckless performances of George W. Bush and Barack H. Obama.

h/t Jeffrey Snider, Alhambra Investments

GDP "anomalies" have been showing since 2011 that "the US economy is in serious, long-term trouble"

Jeffrey Snider, here:

The US economy is in serious, long-term trouble. We knew that very well by the volatile nature of GDP almost from the start (the big negative in Q1 2011, for example). Because orthodox economics is entirely obsessed with the economy that “should be”, it favors smoothing out what is truly pertinent texture because it isn’t directly cyclical by implication. What the mainstream needs is not to try to turn statistics into “ideal” numbers, but to actually see them for what they represent especially when they stray into unexpected ranges. From that perspective, weak quarters were not “anomalies” to be dismissed in a fit of confirmation bias, but rather warnings that actually explain how we got here and why everything from economists, especially“overheating”, was unlikely from the start.

Thirty-five years ago the economy mattered more than actual power

"[Economists] never offer anything but the same command approach to the obvious exception of everything else that used to be easily and conventionally embraced. The willingness of political figures across the spectrum to allow it and even strengthen it defies democracy. Thus Donald Trump".

Jeffrey Snider here.

Minus 2.9% GDP has never occurred outside of a recession: They're ignoring it like 2008

Jeffrey Snider, here:

The most recent example of this, in a larger scale setting, was the first quarter's GDP estimate. Rather than embrace the information that might be relevant to what is actually taking place, the entire orthodox economics profession is busy trying to convince everyone that there was nothing useful in that result. It was, as has been repeated over and over, an aberration of no significant value; an error term to be denied a full place in the analysis of where the economy might actually be headed.

A GDP figure of nearly minus three percent is decidedly rare, however, so unusual that it has never taken place outside of a recession. But that is precisely what we are supposed to ignore when being counselled to take no notice of it. Actually, counsel is too slight and too soft of a word, as what is really occurring is nothing short of a demand. The surety at which the orthodox profession, especially those of monetary disposition, exercises such confidence about forecasting is very much descriptive of ideology rather than science.

The first three months of 2014 were worse than the whole 2001 recession

Jeffrey Snider, here:

"The first quarter of 2014 is worse than anything seen during the 2001 recession – which the worst contraction then was -1.2% in the third quarter of 2001. In raw GDP terms, that would make the first three months of 2014 worse than the whole of the 2001 recession."

The irrelevance of real money to the global fascist banking cabal

Jeffrey Snider, here, fascist emphases added in red for your reading pleasure:

For as long as there has existed the dollar, there has existed the temptation to make it pliable enough to fit the fancy of its masters. In the context of the economic system as it has developed since the earliest stirrings of industrial transformation.

In the current age, there is no mistake about where the dollars strings attach. The Federal Reserve sets policy but does not really operate the "printing press", that is reserved for the global banking cabal including eurodollar participants. There are relatively persuasive arguments on both sides as to which end is in actual control, the banks or the Fed, but in my mind there is no degree of separation, at least not meaningfully in this setting. The banking system operates as the business end of policy. Banking interests have become fully aligned with policy directives as the banking system has been re-oriented in that direction by progression in the past six or so decades.

A full part of that changing systemic character has been the gradual reduction in the relevance of real money. Convention always marks 1971 as the end of the gold era, but it really began its demise far earlier. The Bretton Woods system was plagued almost from the start by this impulse toward dollar pliability, whether for US government purposes, US banking purposes or global trade. The formation of the London gold pool in November 1961 was a symptom of market forces attempting to re-assert authority over currency; and how far government control would be stretched to wrestle free of any competition over monetary monopoly.

It's 2014 But The Economy Is Falling Apart

Jeffrey Snider, here:

As much as these specialists of economic canon project their abilities as something like science, the reduction of economic benchmarks for success shows that it is nothing more than ideology, more closely operating as religion than science. Science is observation, leading to predictable and replicable results. Everything about the past five years is the opposite for the orthodox economist. Everything about the Panic of 2008 was as well - there was no predictability nor replicability in any of the orthodox models or theories. It is all blind faith.

The economy is falling apart, not recovering as you hear from every mainstream outlet. It is a false narrative given cover by the fact that the very definition of recovery has been altered into something that only a few years ago would be easily recognizable as dire malfunction. Even in the highly adjusted statistical economic accounts that show as such are now couched as if they are representative of the opposite, as their meaning has been subverted by this ideology. And where measures of economic accounts clearly diverge from that narrative, such as the labor force participation and the more recent decline in the labor force itself, it is ignored as irrelevant to the heroic monetary chronicle.