Showing posts with label Monmouth University Polling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Monmouth University Polling. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Recent Monmouth poll showing Clinton +7 overweights younger voters who don't turnout like older voters

The Monmouth poll is here.

In the last three presidential elections voters under 45 years of age actually turned out to vote at an average rate of 52% compared with 70% for voters 45 and older. Almost half the sample in a recent Monmouth presidential poll is populated by that younger demographic, which means that the part of the sample which is more likely to represent Democrat preference could be overstating their likely election turnout for Hillary in 2016 by almost 50%.

A notable feature of the last three presidential elections has been the enormous uptick in voter turnout by young people aged 18 to 29, most of whom have been for Bernie Sanders this cycle, not Hillary Clinton. Turnout has averaged 45% for this age group since 2004 compared with 37% prior, and given the lack of enthusiasm for Hillary the turnout for this demographic may well revert to the status quo ante. 

Excepting the election in 1992 when the 18-29s turned out for Bill Clinton at almost 43%, in 1988, 1996 and 2000 they yawned Meh! turning out at an average of 34% compared to 66% for their elders aged 60+.  

Monday, April 4, 2016

Monmouth poll finds 54% of Republicans say Trump should be nominee even without the necessary 1,237 delegates


"A majority of all Republican voters (54%) say that the party should get behind Trump as the nominee if he has the most delegates but not enough for a first round ballot victory. Another 34% would like to see the convention nominate someone else in this case."


Thursday, January 28, 2016

Shut up Mark Levin you dummy! Trump has reversed Cruz' lead in Iowa in THREE polls ... count 'em

Poof!
Donald Trump doesn't need any advice from you, Levin.

At the beginning of January Cruz was ahead in Iowa by 4 in the NBC poll, but now Trump is ahead by 7 in the same.

Cruz was ahead in Iowa by 5 in the Monmouth poll at the beginning of December, but now in the same poll Trump is ahead by 7.

And in the FOX poll Cruz was ahead by 4 at the beginning of January, but Trump is now ahead by 11 in the FOX poll.