Long bets continue to demand higher compensation both relatively speaking and relative to January 2024.
Long bets continue to demand higher compensation both relatively speaking and relative to January 2024.
First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised lower Thursday in light of reduced consumer spending, surprising economists.
GDP contracted by 0.5 percent on an annualized basis, 0.3 percentage points lower than the last measurement from the Commerce Department.
Economists were expecting the number to stay the same at a 0.2 percent contraction. ...
More.
Average yields at Treasury Note auctions this week have been significantly lower than at the immediately preceding auctions, indicating there has been a flight to safety on souring economic growth expectations.
Trump may get his lower interest rates . . . the hard way, lol.
Average Bond yields climbed for a second consecutive month.
The Daily Federal Funds Rate averaged 4.33.
... Holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged to $9.05 trillion in March, an
all-time peak and up more than $233 billion from $8.81 trillion in
February. Compared with a year earlier, Treasuries owned by foreigners
rose nearly 12%.
Some analysts said that trend could change in April as the Trump administration introduced a massive trade shock on April 2nd that saw effective tariff rates surge, particularly on Chinese goods.
That fueled a U.S. Treasuries sell-off that, at one point, pushed benchmark 10-year yields more than 70 basis points (bps) higher to nearly 4.6% over the April 3-11 period. The selloff may have included selling from foreign investors, analysts said.
Trump has since paused the imposition of tariffs for 90 days, and the Treasuries market has stabilized somewhat, although foreign investors are likely to have remained leery of U.S. assets. ...
Yeah, I don't think so.
10Y yield averaged 4.28 in April lol, unchanged from March lololol.
The bond market is issuing a vote of no confidence in our elected leadership.
One branch of Republican government thinks this is the 19th century with a robust manufacturing base it needs to protect with crazy wild tariffs, and another branch of Republican government thinks it's just fine to go on spending like drunken sailors and not raise taxes to pay for any of it.
Interest payments alone on the national debt in fiscal year 2024 soared to $1.1 trillion against revenues of $4.9 trillion.
Meanwhile the most powerful military in the world can't stop a bunch of rag-headed heathen bastards from launching missiles at Israel.
These people are crackerdog.
Stock futures surge. Crude oil surges. US Treasury yields surge.
Trump had imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to respond with retaliatory curbs of its own, including restrictions on some rare earth elements. ...
Average US Treasury yields in April vs. March were down but up in comparison on Friday May 2nd after Trump meddled again in the Fed's business.
The yield aggregate of eleven securities down: 4.19 in April vs. 4.243 in March, but back up to 4.234 on Friday.
Bills down: 4.205 in April vs. 4.26 in March but up to 4.242 on Friday.
Notes down: 3.966 vs. 4.082 but up to 4.002 on Friday.
Bonds up: 4.725 vs. 4.615 and up some more to 4.80 on Friday. Investors are demanding more return from bonds because they perceive risk to be rising for long duration holdings.
The overall picture since January 2024 though shows yields falling as the rate of inflation has slowly declined. The black line below shows the average of the aggregate peaking in April 2024.
The 10-year Note at 4.33 on Friday matches the Daily Federal Funds Rate exactly, same as the 3-month.
Speaking of which, 10Y-3MO has been screaming "major recession" since October 2022, but to no avail.
It's a long way down to normal.
The 2022 lows got us back only to the 2000 high, and people thought it was the end of the world when all it was was a good beginning lol.
Nominal GDP in 1Q2025 is estimated at $29.9776 trillion by the BEA this morning.
$SPX closed at 5611.85 on March 31, 2025.
That yields a ratio of 187 vs. the historical mean of 81, or 131% overvalued.
Guru Focus gets similar results from the Buffett Indicator:
As usual the alarmists and doomsayers are . . . alarmists and doomsayers.
Demand for US debt is steady and strong this week:
3MO at 4.225% average vs. 4.225% previously
6MO at 4.05 vs. 4.06 previously
2Y at 3.795 vs. 3.984 previously
5Y at 3.995 vs. 4.1 previously
7Y at 4.123 vs. 4.233 previously.
Yields across the curve last night averaged 4.240, down from 4.261 a week ago, below the Daily Fed Funds Rate at 4.33.
There were six years when all three, the unemployment rate, headline inflation, and 10-year US Treasury yield, were at 6% or higher on an average basis at the same time:
1975: 8.5% 9.14% 7.99%
1977: 7.1% 6.46% 7.42%
1978: 6.1% 7.62% 8.41%
1980: 7.2% 13.5% 11.43%
1981: 7.6% 10.37% 13.92%
1982: 9.7% 6.15% 13.01%.
In March 2025 unemployment was 4.2%, headline inflation was 2.4%, and the 10Y yielded 4.28%.
The current data set is no compelling case for reducing interest rates. If Trump had confidence in his tariff regime, he wouldn't be clamoring for further reductions.