What he said

 

Treasury Secretary Bessent tells a whopper

 

Bessent: Tariff Income And Fiscal Improvement Have Made The U.S. Bond Market The Best Performing In The Developed World

 

These jokers have added $1.2 trillion to the national debt in TWO months.

 

The 10-year US Treasury has returned 1.013% nominal in the last twelve months, -1.419% real. 

Friday's bad job report spooked Treasury buyers big time, pushing yields down 4.5% in the aggregate from the August average in a flight to safety

Average US Treasury yields by duration Fri Sep 5, 2025:

Bills 3.96

Notes 3.69

Bonds 4.75

Aggregate 3.98 (down 4.5% from Aug average).

The aggregate was already down 6.5% from January in August. The only yields still holding up had been in bonds, which gave up 11 basis points on Friday, yielding 4.75 vs. the August average of 4.86, down about 2.2%. 

The rosy scenario, which isn't rosy, is for stagflation. The worse scenario is for recession, possibly signaled by the revision to June payrolls, now down 13k.

You know, like in January 2001, but past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The point is, people are spooked. 

 

 

U.S. Treasury yields tank in flight to safety after August 2025 jobs only +22k: Fed rate cut incoming

 

Bonds tank and gold soars to start September in huge embarrassment to Banana Republican Donald Trump, who wouldn't pay his own bills let alone the country's

... Tariffs are set to bring in $172.1 billion in 2025, according to the Tax Foundation, which would be a nice financial boost to a country with a ballooning budget deficit.

“If this ruling is upheld, refunds of existing tariffs are on the table which could cause a surge in Treasury issuance and yields,” wrote Ed Mills of Raymond James in a note. ...

More. 

 

US Treasury yields retreated 3% from their July average in the aggregate on Friday in a flight to safety

 The July average yield of the aggregate of eleven US Treasury issues was 4.2927. Friday's 3% retreat left the aggregate at 4.1636.

Yields on Bills pulled back to 4.2175 from 4.2925 in July, or 1.7%.

Yields on Notes pulled back to 3.866 from 4.042 in July, or 4.3%.

Yields on Bonds pulled back to 4.80 from 4.92 in July, or 2.4%. 

 

VFSTX is now ahead 4.45% year to date.

VFICX is now ahead 6.37% year to date.

VWESX is now ahead 4.47% year to date. 

VBTLX is now ahead 4.67% year to date. 

VTSAX is now ahead 6.26% year to date. 

Look at that flight to US Treasury safety

 

Trump unleashes sweeping new tariffs in a blow to global trade

 

U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower

 

 

 

The Fed was right yesterday, voting 9-2 to make no change to interest rates, as core pce inflation comes in at 2.79% year over year in June, a tick up from May's 2.75%

 Core personal consumption expenditures year over year have been stuck in a range of 2.78% year over year for eighteen long months.

This is shaping up to become the regrettable new normal.

Core pce had averaged just 1.50% year over year for twelve years from 2009-2020 inclusive. The rate has been 85% higher than that for a year and a half now on an average basis.

The 2.78% rate is but little lower than the 2024 average of 2.81%, and the 2.75% average for the first six months of 2025 still rounds up to 2.8%.

You remember 2024. Joe Biden was president, and so far in 2025 he might as well still be.

Inflation is the worst tax. Unfortunately it's the Uniparty's policy.

 

  

Bond investors slowly roasting on the turning spit

 

US Treasury yields were down modestly in June 2025 on an average basis

Long bets continue to demand higher compensation both relatively speaking and relative to January 2024.

 

The consensus estimate for today's GDP report was indeed for -0.2, instead it surprised at -0.5

 

First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised lower Thursday in light of reduced consumer spending, surprising economists.

GDP contracted by 0.5 percent on an annualized basis, 0.3 percentage points lower than the last measurement from the Commerce Department.

Economists were expecting the number to stay the same at a 0.2 percent contraction. ...

More. 

Average yields at Treasury Note auctions this week have been significantly lower than at the immediately preceding auctions, indicating there has been a flight to safety on souring economic growth expectations.

Trump may get his lower interest rates . . . the hard way, lol. 

Methinks J. D. Vance doth protest too much about Jerome Powell

 

It backfired on Powell, though.

 

Yields climbed in response. 10Y went from 3.63 on Sep 16 to 4.37 by Nov 1. And core PCE inflation shot back up.

 

It's proof yet again that the Fed has next to no control over interest rates. It's one of the great myths of our time that it does, a myth Vance believes.

 

If Powell had cut and Kamala won, irrespective of what rates or inflation did, Vance might have an argument. He should quit complaining and take the win.

 

Meanwhile core PCE inflation was 2.66 in Sep 2024, same as it was in Mar 2025.

 

You'd think twice about trying that again, too, if you got burned like that, especially if you're being hectored by the tag-team wrestlers of the Oval Orifice.

 

 

 

The average yield for the US 10Y note auction today was 4.421 vs. 4.342 previously, up 1.8%

 

Average US Treasury yields climbed all across the curve in May 2025

Bills 4.28

Notes 4.096

Bonds 4.91

Aggregate 4.31 

Average Bond yields climbed for a second consecutive month.

The Daily Federal Funds Rate averaged 4.33.

 

When core pce inflation was above 2.5% year over year for 27 straight years, we had 10Y yields well above 5 and 30-year mortgages well above 7.5 to go with it

 1967-1993, inclusive.

 

 

US20Y auction average yield 5.047 vs. 4.81 previously lol

It's driving the Reuters writer of this story at CNBC crazy that US Treasury securities aren't selling off lol

Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries top $9 trillion in March, data shows

 ... Holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged to $9.05 trillion in March, an all-time peak and up more than $233 billion from $8.81 trillion in February. Compared with a year earlier, Treasuries owned by foreigners rose nearly 12%.

Some analysts said that trend could change in April as the Trump administration introduced a massive trade shock on April 2nd that saw effective tariff rates surge, particularly on Chinese goods.

That fueled a U.S. Treasuries sell-off that, at one point, pushed benchmark 10-year yields more than 70 basis points (bps) higher to nearly 4.6% over the April 3-11 period. The selloff may have included selling from foreign investors, analysts said.

Trump has since paused the imposition of tariffs for 90 days, and the Treasuries market has stabilized somewhat, although foreign investors are likely to have remained leery of U.S. assets. ...

Yeah, I don't think so.

10Y yield averaged 4.28 in April lol, unchanged from March lololol.

The funniest thing that's happening to Donald Trump right now is that while he tries to intimidate the Fed to reduce interest rates and they do nothing, yields are soaring all by themselves

 The bond market is issuing a vote of no confidence in our elected leadership.

One branch of Republican government thinks this is the 19th century with a robust manufacturing base it needs to protect with crazy wild tariffs, and another branch of Republican government thinks it's just fine to go on spending like drunken sailors and not raise taxes to pay for any of it.

Interest payments alone on the national debt in fiscal year 2024 soared to $1.1 trillion against revenues of $4.9 trillion.

Meanwhile the most powerful military in the world can't stop a bunch of rag-headed heathen bastards from launching missiles at Israel.

These people are crackerdog.

US Treasury yields are now up a net 2.37% across the curve since last Friday.

 

Long duration is very unhappy: 10Y at 4.53 at the close yesterday, 20Y at 5.00, 30Y at 4.97.

 

VUSTX ytd total return: -0.53%.

 

 

Trump's phony Liberation Day for working Americans evaporates into thin air, new 90-day pause brings 145% reciprocal tariffs on China, which tanked markets in early April, down to 30%

Stock futures surge. Crude oil surges. US Treasury yields surge.

U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days in major trade breakthrough

 

... The trade agreement means that “reciprocal” tariffs between both countries will be cut from 125% to 10%. The U.S.′ 20% duties on Chinese imports relating to fentanyl will remain in place, meaning total tariffs on China stand at 30%. ...

Trump had imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to respond with retaliatory curbs of its own, including restrictions on some rare earth elements. ...

Trump calls Powell a fool for not lowering rates, yields rise in response lol

 

Trump calls Fed Chair Jerome Powell a ‘fool’ after central bank keeps rates steady again