As an inflation fighter, Jerome Powell turned out to be twice as bad as Arthur Burns

Under Powell core pce inflation exceeded 10Y yield for 4 consecutive years (2020-2023).

Under Burns it was for only 2 (1974-1975).

The Bernank was Fed chair in 2012 when inflation only just barely outran 10Y yield.

 

Bond yields through March 2026 have ignored Fed interest rate cuts which commenced in September 2024

 

Drudge is running propaganda for the Chicom bond market now

 

Chinese govt bonds emerge as lone haven...

 

https://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0327/c90000-20440521.html

... "By allocating to RMB bonds, foreign investors can reduce portfolio volatility and improve risk-adjusted returns." ... "In the face of frequent geopolitical risks, the safe-haven role of RMB bonds has emerged," Yu said, adding that as the RMB internationalization progresses, demand for RMB assets as reserves is growing, and this is expected to support the growth of RMB bonds holdings by central banks and sovereign wealth funds.                                                                                        

LOL, what a crock.

Foreign investors own less than $1 trillion of Chinese debt, compared with over $9 trillion of U.S. debt.

... [U.S.] Treasuries are relied upon by global central banks as the pre-eminent reserve asset, since the $30tn market for the securities is the biggest and deepest in the world. ...

More. 

 

Some foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities are selling them to buy oil, which is denominated in DOLLARS, not in yuan

 Thank you for your attention to this matter.

DXY: 99.893 

Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war

 

Reality has a funny way of jamming seemingly interminable rosy expectations

 Markets now see the Fed’s next move as a potential rate hike as inflation fears mount

... Traders in the futures market pushed the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52% on Friday morning, the first time it has crossed the 50% threshold, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool. ... 

 

U.S. Treasury yields are ringing the alarm at Mad King Ludwig

 

How come this isn't the end of Starmer's government when it was the end of Truss'?

 

Trump thinks high interest rates are all Powell's fault when they are HIS: The war in Iran, the tariffs, the addition of $2 trillion in debt in seven months

 

CNBC doesn't mention that the dollar rallied in the last month along with bonds and gold

 Gold heads for seventh straight monthly gain on safe-haven demand

... The metal has climbed 6.5% so ⁠far in February, bringing gains for the seven months to a whopping 58%. ... The benchmark 10-year yield fell to a three-month low ‌on the day, decreasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying gold. ...

The bond market has voted Nay Nay on the Fed's interest rate cuts which started in September 2024, but I repeat myself

 Worries about softening employment have been entirely misplaced. Jobless claims have been FLAT for four consecutive years.

The Fed was wrong about jobs, just like it was wrong about inflation being transitory.

 

We're already close to the first: As of Feb 2026, the average interest rate on the U.S. National Debt is 3.4% while the compound annual rate of nominal GDP growth from 3Q2007 to 3Q2025 is only 4.3%

 One path to U.S. fiscal disaster is most alarming — and most likely

... An Everest of debt is an incentive for an inflation crisis to reduce the value of existing debt by paying lenders with debased dollars. But inflation would become baked into the expectations of investors, who would demand higher interest rates. Then R>G would bite: When interest rates paid on debt exceed the rate of economic growth, a crisis intensifies as rising interest rates depress economic growth. ... The most probable, and most ominous, outcome would be a gradual crisis. ... Nothing unsettles a middle-class nation more rapidly than inflation, a component of all of these crises. ...

Average yields on 20s and 30s are higher in January 2026 than when Trump was elected in November 2024, voting Nay Nay on what's going on

 

Yield on the 10Y is still lower but is saying Me Too

Gold bug Peter Schiff's problem is that gold represented at best only about 18% of the value of total global international reserves, and that was yesterday before gold started this price plunge

"The dollar is going to collapse", he said.

"The dollar is going to be replaced by gold", he said.

Central banks "are getting rid of dollars", he said.

"They're getting rid of treasuries", he said.

None of that is true.

The nominal broad dollar index remains relatively strong. 

Even foreign official ownership of treasuries is up slightly year over year, shifting slightly from long dated securities to short, while total foreign ownership is up solidly. 

Meanwhile fiat currencies represented about 78% of the value of total global international reserves yesterday. The U.S. Dollar alone represented about 55% of the value, followed by the Euro close to 20%.

Gold is not going to replace the dollar.

But Peter will be happy to sell you some, especially today lol. 

 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says economic activity has been solid lol

 10-year Treasury yield rises after Fed keeps rates steady, notes ‘solid’ economy

... “Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization,” the post-meeting statement said. “Inflation remains somewhat elevated.” ... 

“I think, and many of my colleagues think, it’s hard to look at the incoming data and say the policy is significantly restrictive at this time,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference. ...

The economy should be three times the size it is, $90.4 trillion in GDP instead of $31.1 trillion.

 

 

Bond yields don't appear to believe Trump's disavowal of the use of force in Greenland

 

Yields give the finger to The Don for tariff threats over Greenland

 

Look at those UST yields pop

 

Long yields have defied Fed interest rate cuts since September 2024, signaling persistent higher inflation

 

Stories like this about China destroying the U.S. Dollar just make me want to howl

But hey, what do you expect from MarketWatch?

China quietly destroying the dollar...

... As more commodities get priced in yuan instead of dollars, demand for dollars softens. As central banks diversify into gold, they buy fewer Treasurys. As fewer foreigners buy U.S. debt, interest rates drift higher. As the dollar’s purchasing power erodes, everything you import costs more. ...

This, like most of the story, is a load of BS.

Global demand for U.S. debt is at an ALL TIME HIGH, a record $9.2 trillion in the last three months through October.

You'll know the yuan has replaced the dollar when the world buys Chinese sovereign debt instead of ours. And right now the world owns less than $300 billion of Chinese sovereign debt, billion with a B, not trillion with a T.

Nobody trusts China like they trust us. 

The writer, who owns gold and silver, wants you to dump long term bonds and buy short term bills and . . . gold and silver. Gee, what a coincidence. 

Meanwhile foreign governments continue to prefer long term U.S. Treasuries and own relatively few bills.

And the dollar is relatively strong, not weak as the writer says, in November 2025. 

click to enlarge

 

The unemployment rate at 4.6% in November 2025 can't be right

 The unemployment rate at 4.6% in November 2025 can't be right with Initial Claims for Unemployment so low, averaging 223k.

The January to September averages were 4.2% unemployment with 222k initial claims.

Compare:

2024: 4.0% at 221k

2023: 3.6% at 221k

2022: 3.6% at 215k

2019: 3.7% at 217k

2018: 3.9% at 220k.

Household Survey response rates, from which we get the unemployment rate, have plunged since the pandemic, from above 80% before COVID to below 70% now.

As a consequence 2025 and 2024 look suspiciously higher than they probably are when compared with prior years. 

Initial claims for unemployment is more certain as a measurement because the data is aggregated from state unemployment agencies which pay actual people who make actual claims, not people who answer (or don't answer) a poll.

With claims still historically low, the Fed is making a big mistake in reducing interest rates because it thinks employment is softening based on the Household Survey.

They risk reigniting inflation.