Both stocks and fixed income down at the same time is a real bummer, you know, like in 2022.
UST yields in the aggregate tonight are at 4.45 vs 4.356 at the end of November.
UST yields have risen 375 basis points net in the aggregate in the three months since the Fed started cutting the Fed Funds Rate on September 18. That's +6.93%, which is hilarious.
UST averages tonight: Bills 4.365 Notes 4.410 Bonds 4.695.
Low duration issues yield the least, long duration issues the most, and the middle looks like the middle should look, middling.
That's how it should be.
Low duration issues have been dominating the curve, yielding the most. Why, just at the beginning of the month the 1MO still yielded 4.75, more than any other security. Tonight the 1MO yields 4.44 and the 20Y yields 4.74, the leader. The yield laggards are the 6MO and 1Y at 4.30. That's what you want to see happen.
The Fed today dropped the Federal Funds Rate 0.25 points to 4.25. I expect the short end to keep moving lower as a result, and the middle to rise more in tandem with the long bonds as inflation continues to bite.
But we shall see.
Interpreted politically one could say yields for notes and bonds reversed their slide starting in October as Harris' lead evaporated at the end of September and bond markets started to bet on a Trump win, bringing with it higher deficits because of his proposed tariffs and tax cuts.
The UST Bills end averages 4.353 as of Friday Dec 13th, while the Bonds end averages 4.650.
Still soft in the middle, though, with Notes averaging 4.288. Would like to see Bills and Notes the reverse of that for a nicely steepened slope from short duration to long.
3.2%, 3.4% . . . and 3.5% year over year now in November 2024.
Overall prices are up 3% yoy in November.
Wholesale prices rose 0.4% in November, more than expected:
Final-demand goods prices leaped 0.7% on the month, the biggest move since February of this year. Some 80% of the move came from a 3.1% surge in food prices, according to the BLS.
Within the food category, chicken eggs soared 54.6%, joining an across-the-board acceleration in items such as dry vegetables, fresh fruits and poultry. Egg prices at the retail level swelled 8.2% on the month and were up 37.5% from a year ago, the BLS said in a separate report Wednesday on consumer prices.
The Fed is expected still to cut again at the next meeting despite all the evidence pointing to persistently high and increasing inflation, hiding behind the skirts of fear of job losses, a smokescreen for gifting easier money to speculators, and to federal authorities who now need to finance $36.1 trillion in the national debt at lower rates.
20Y and 30Y bonds are revolting, demanding 4.624 and 4.551 as we speak, now the highest yields across the curve, as the short end yields in US Treasury bills come back down to earth.
Seasonally adjusted core cpi inflation is trending higher since July, and ticked up from 3.25% year over year in September to 3.30% in October.
Not seasonally adjusted inflation is up to 3.33% in October from 3.31% in September, also trending higher since July.
And yet Jerome Powell keeps cutting the Fed Funds Rate, 50 basis points in September and another 25 basis points last week. 10Y yield minus 2Y has been showing its displeasure ever since, reversing its healthy trend. So has the 30Y mortgage.
Congress continues to spend like drunken sailors, and Powell has joined them with loose monetary policy now after not tight enough policy EVER.
The whole thing is DISGUSTING. And the election changes NOTHING.
 |
| Prime Rib and Pork Chops and Scampi, Oh My |
Gold prices fell over 1% after hitting a record high on Wednesday, as a stronger dollar and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields countered support from safe-haven demand linked to the Nov. 5 U.S. election and Middle East war.
Spot gold was down 1% to $2,721.12 per ounce as of 12:25 p.m. EDT (1410 GMT) after hitting a record high of $2,758.37 earlier in the session.
U.S. gold futures fell 0.9% to $2,734.60. ...
Spot silver fell 3.1% to $33.74 per ounce after hitting its highest price since late 2012 at $34.87 on Tuesday.
More.
Year to date total return tanked for 30-year bonds from 2.01% on 9/27/24 to -0.78% on 10/4/24.
For 20-year bonds year to date return fell from 3.33% to 0.98% over the week.
There was similar carnage down the curve. Only 3mo and 6mo Treasury bills were up year to date week over week.
We saw a much bigger surge into bonds in March, but yields persisted.
With inflation, employment, and nominal GDP all still strong, Treasury tricks are unlikely to unravel this.
Cash such as VMFXX at 4.21% ytd and total stock market such as VTSAX at 13.92% ytd continue to trounce bonds ytd. VBTLX is still down 0.39% ytd. AGG is down 3.46% ytd.
VUSTX fell to $7.37 yesterday, October 19, 2023.
Until the bond debacle of 2022, the lowest price ever was set way back in 1987, also on October 19, aka Black Monday, when the S&P 500 crashed 20.47% in its worst single day ever.
2022's new all time low for VUSTX at 8.16 had occurred on October 24, missing the anniversary of the old all time low by just three days. Also a very odd coincidence.
The debacle has only continued in 2023, and VUSTX prices haven't seen $8 since September 22nd.
ZIRP since the Great Recession is ultimately to blame for the current mess in long term Treasury securities. The clamor it created for yield drove bond investors long, culminating in the highest nominal prices ever paid for long term UST in March 2020, and the lowest yields. 30Y UST yield crashed to 0.99% on March 9, 2020, 20Y to 0.87%. Yields across the board in 2023 for 2Y to 30Y have set records for this cycle in October. Yesterday 20Y demanded 5.30%, 30Y 5.11%.
No one wants that 2020 and prior junk now, so wherever it sits it's causing collateral problems, at banks, insurance companies, pension funds, et cetera. And on the Fed's balance sheet: As of October 18th the Fed has $1.503922 trillion of UST maturing in more than 10 years on its balance sheet. It basically has to keep it until it matures, and it pays it very little to return to the Treasury as it does.
Are prices done falling?
Confident pretenders said so a year ago this month, and now here we are with $TLT investors down another 12.22% since then.
Given the obscene overvaluation of stocks, and the demand for higher yields by bond investors, cash still seems the safest place to be. VMRXX, Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund Admiral Shares, has returned 4.00% ytd. You continue to lose to inflation, however.
Nothing is ever perfect.
 |
| 1987 high and low |
 |
| 2022 high and low to the left, all time high and low to the right |
Yield for the 10-year US Treasury rose to an average 4.17% in August 2023 while core inflation year over year fell to 3.87% in August 2023.
This ends the 3-year 5-month run where core inflation exceeded the 10-year yield, something which has never happened in the data.
The only time core inflation outran the 10-year previously for a comparable period was in 1974 and 1975 when core inflation averaged 7.91% and 8.35% vs. the 10-year yield which averaged 7.56% and 7.99% respectively.
That lackadaisical response to inflation by the Federal Reserve under Arthur F. Burns (1970-1978) prefigured the 1980 resurgence of core inflation to 9.19%. Under his successor Paul Volcker, interest rates were hiked to unprecedented levels to curb inflation. The 10-year yield rose to an average of 13.92% in 1981 as a result.
The current fear is that the Powell Fed has set up the economy for a repeat of this awful period of inflation.
Whatever is said about it, there is no question that inflation is a benefit to the Federal government because it depends on borrowing to finance deficit spending and consequently the debt, now at an unprecedented $33 trillion. Inflation simply reduces that cost to the government over time by making the dollars previously borrowed worth less.
It is true that new borrowing costs much more, but the debt mountain mammoth in the living room is the more pressing problem. This is why the cognoscenti teach that inflation is a good thing.
Extending the duration of inflation at the currently relatively low level has been in the government's interest. The costs born by the public in the form of higher prices for goods, services, and borrowing are becoming routinized so that the voters are becoming inured to the deleterious effects for them while clueless of the benefits for the debt mongers.
This is particularly the case for voters who have no memory of that horrible inflation which gave rise to the backlash represented by Ronald Reagan's election in 1980, and who now vastly outnumber those who still remember.
It should not be forgotten that Jimmy Carter got elected in 1976 anyway, after the Burns' inflation. The voters then took it all in stride, too, until they didn't.
Same as it ever was.
Cash was about the only thing which did better week over week on Friday. Treasuries and bonds generally took a beating, as did stocks.
The UST yield curve aggregate closed up a net 1.27% week over week on 9/22, to an average of 5.0707692, the highest Friday close yet for this cycle.
Yields in the aggregate made a new high for this cycle on Thursday, for an average of 5.0915384.
Here's the year-to-date performance for key categories using some commonly used Vanguard funds:
Treasury Market VFISX 0.66% VFITX -0.70% VUSTX -5.57%;
Investment Grade Market VFSTX 2.08% VFICX 1.32% VWESX -0.83%;
Total Bond Market VBTLX -0.03% (+0.44% previous week);
Cash VMFXX 3.58% (3.48% previous week);
Total Stock Market VTSAX 12.95% (16.45% previous week).
There were just two years of this in the 1970s inflation, and they too were consecutive.
Anyone who calls Jerome Powell an inflation fighter is an idiot, or a stooge for the status quo of inflation profiteers.
This is all on the backs of the people, but where is the angry mob?
So medicated, so drugged, and so otherwise anesthetized by bread and circuses that the elites don't even bother to hide the truth.
 |
| Core inflation higher than DGS10 yield in 2020, 2021, 2022 (annual average) |
 |
| Core inflation higher than DGS10 yield January through July 2023 (monthly view) |
UST yields rose a net 1.31% in the aggregate week over week on 7/28.
DFF rises to 5.33% after the latest FOMC rate hike.
Year to date Treasury, Total Bond, Cash, and Total Stock performance using popular Vanguard funds:
VFISX +0.75% VFITX 0.90% VUSTX 1.58% VBTLX 2.05% VMFXX 2.75% lol VTSAX 19.99%!
Stocks have been the place to be, and cash has beaten even the total bond market.
Meanwhile stocks are obscenely overvalued at 169 using the latest report of GDP out Thursday:
