Years of Blood, Sweat Equity, and Tears . . . Gone: Home Equity Down $7 Trillion Since 2006

The Nutter feels your pain:

Since early 2006, American families have lost $7 trillion in home equity — more than half of their equity has simply vanished. Many millions, of course, have lost everything they put into their house, and more.

Years of blood, tears and sweat equity gone. Remember, for most families, home equity accounts for most of their wealth. In the past, wealth in the form of home equity has often been the ticket to upward mobility; many a small business or college education has been funded from real estate wealth.

About 11 million families — about 23% of those with mortgages — now owe more on their house than it’s worth. Before the bubble burst, that figure was about 1%.

More from Rex here.

Final Uncalled House Race Update: NY-1 Remains a Democrat Hold

The Republican challenger has conceded to the Democrat incumbent. The story is here.

The net gain for Republicans in the US House in 2010 remains at 63, putting the Republicans in the majority with 242 seats to the Democrats 193.

No one foresaw such an eventuality two years ago when the Democrats decisively swept Republicans aside on Obama's coattails and acquired an overwhelming majority numbering 256 seats. That tide wasn't completely reversed in this election, but for a party deemed dead for all intents and purposes the comeback is a remarkable thumping, thanks in part to the activism of the Tea Party movement, which was created spontaneously out of thin air in February and March of 2009 in response to Democrat stimulus spending and mortgage modification programs.

The battle to stop and reverse Obama's programs designed to transform American culture and institutions has now been joined.

Beware Obamao's red guards.

Caroline Baum Says "There Isn't Anything Government Can Do" For Housing

It's right here:

Owners’ equity in household real estate, or the value of assets minus liabilities, fell from a peak of $13.1 trillion in 2005 to a low of $5.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2009, according to the Fed’s Flow of Funds report. That’s a whopping 55 percent decline in four years. By the second quarter of 2010, owners’ equity had climbed back to $7 trillion.

Even with the 87 percent rebound in the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index from the March 2009 lows, household net worth is still below its 2007 peak.

Housing, which along with manufacturing has traditionally led the economy out of recession, won’t be pulling its weight this time -- even with historically low mortgage rates. And there isn’t anything the government can do except let prices fall so the market can clear, something it’s been unwilling to do.

Aside from the fact that the rebound in equities would directly benefit fewer than half of US households, what's this about government impotence? Government can do plenty.

If the fascists over at the Federal Reserve can loan a bunch of fascist bankers and fascist industries $9 trillion from 2008 to 2010 at nearly zero percent interest, surely it can come up with $6.1 trillion for homeowners to close the gap in lost equity in household real estate.

Oh, but I forget! Most homeowners aren't fascists like the oligarchy!

My bad.

Love the makeover, though, Caroline. You look mahvelous.

Housing Prices Still Need To Fall Much More

And they will.

TPC at Pragmatic Capitalism shows three charts here which demonstrate historically where we've been and where we are with respect to supply, demand and price.

From the peaks, demand for new homes is off nearly 80%, while prices of new homes are off only 25% and represent levels last seen in 2003.

Supply of existing housing is up over 70%, however. The current drop in supply to 10.5 months is seasonal but is still something like 160% higher than it was at the end of 2003. Clearing this inventory remains unemployment's doppelganger.

Tom Petruno on the Zombie Bears

Not once in this more or less even-handed discussion does the massive rot infecting bank balance sheets because of declining housing and commercial real estate prices get mentioned.

You'd never know that half of the nearly 8000 banks in this country have serious problems, nor that the savings of millions of Americans have disappeared because of the bursting of the housing bubble.

But hey, we can live with rot, and maybe even recover, right? Cancer patients do it all the time. Except for the ones that die.

Against the sickening round of prolonged chemotherapy and radiation currently being applied through extend and pretend and stimulative liquidity, the bears instead advocate surgery:

The zombie bears are certain that the worst lies ahead, and that consumers and investors should prepare accordingly — although how exactly to prepare is a matter of debate.

"We need a deleveraging, deflationary depression, and in three to five years we're going to have a much better economy," said Michael Pento, senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital in New York.

"We just have to go through hell in the meantime."

Real Estate Loan Problems are Significant in Half of All Banks

And the total number of all banks is now fewer than 7800 due to mergers and failures, according to Richard Suttmeier of ValuEngine.com:

The total number of banks with real estate loan pipeline problems is 3938, or 50.7% of all banks in the banking system.

Read more about it, here.

Everything else is happy talk.

A Housing Lotto?

Reuven Brenner for Forbes thinks a lottery might be the solution to the foreclosure and shadow inventory mess. He got the idea from Thomas Jefferson:

Shortly before Thomas Jefferson died, he tried to pay debts that amounted to $80,000 by disposing of land he owned through the use of a lottery, a well-established method at the time. He explained the rationale for such financing: "An article of property, insusceptible of division at all, or not without great diminution of its worth, is sometimes of so large value that no purchaser can be found ... The lottery is here a salutary instrument for disposing of it, where men run small risks for a chance of obtaining a high prize."

Go here to read how Brenner thinks it could be made to work.

Nine Years of Housing Inventory Owned by Banks

Which is why Chris Whalen calls the banks unwilling REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts). This is a national catastrophe which threatens our very way of life. No one can sell. No one can move.

As reported here by the Wall Street Journal on October 30th:

As of September, [banks] owned nearly 994,000 foreclosed homes, up 21% from a year earlier. The shadow inventory stood at 5.2 million homes, down 7% from a year earlier. Grand total: 107 months of inventory.

And Obama's off on another junket at taxpayer expense, costing an estimated $200 million PER DAY according to widely circulated reports.

Why are Americans putting up with this?

QE (Quantitative Easing): How to Bailout Banks by By-Passing Congress

TPC at Pragmatic Capitalism makes a persuasive case that we have government of the banks, by the banks, and for the banks:

[I]f you’re a bad bank with a few trillion dollars in bad mortgage paper you’re delighted if a AAA rated entity [The Federal Reserve] comes in and swaps those assets out with their highly rated paper. This is exactly what the Fed did in 2009 and make no mistake – it was hugely successful in clearing the credit markets and altering the composition of bank balance sheets. This was Mr. Bernanke’s goal after all. He was simply trying to clear the credit markets and improve the banking system and he believed that would ultimately fix the problems in the US economy. Unfortunately, he misdiagnosed a household balance sheet recession as a banking crisis. QE1 provided liquidity in the credit markets and it gave the banks some much needed breathing room. Unfortunately, the impact on the real economy was far more muted.

The author points out that QE II is now necessary because the banks are going to be in trouble again very soon as the next leg down in housing ensues.

Don't miss the rest here.

Enshrining Bailouts Into Law: Both Parties Terrified of Upsetting High Finance Status Quo

A reminder from Nicole Gelinas from July why the Dodd-Frank legislation was a failure:

For 25 years, Washington has done everything in its power to subsidize Americans' profligate borrowing habits. Debt became the fuel for economic growth. Washington subsidized the financial industry's borrowing through implicit guarantees against loss.

The feds first started rescuing creditors to "too big to fail" banks in 1984. Since then, it's become clear to lenders -- Wall Street's global bondholders and trading counterparties -- that the government would save them anytime a large financial firm foundered.

Indemnified against losses, bondholders could lend nearly infinitely to Wall Street. Wall Street found creative ways to lend that money right back to the public, through mortgage brokers and credit card marketers.

Some exceptions exist. In September 2008, the feds refused to rescue Lehman Brothers' lenders. But the exceptions have only proven the rule. Today, conventional Washington wisdom is that letting Lehman fail was a catastrophe.

The Dodd-Frank bill is a monument to the status quo. Despite promises that the bill will end bailouts, it enshrines bailouts into law.

Read the whole thing here.

Foreclosure and Securitization Fraud: Conjuring Collateral Documents From Thin Air

Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism writing for the New York Times zeroes in on the fraud which lies at the heart of the mortgage securitization and foreclosure crisis:

Consider a company called Lender Processing Services, which acts as a middleman for mortgage servicers and says it oversees more than half the foreclosures in the United States. To assist foreclosure law firms in its network, a subsidiary of the company offered a menu of services it provided for a fee.

The list showed prices for “creating” — that is, conjuring from thin air — various documents that the trust owning the loan should already have on hand. The firm even offered to create a “collateral file,” which contained all the documents needed to establish ownership of a particular real estate loan. Equipped with a collateral file, you could likely persuade a court that you were entitled to foreclose on a house even if you had never owned the loan.

That there was even a market for such fabricated documents among the law firms involved in foreclosures shows just how hard it is going to be to fix the problems caused by the lapses of the mortgage boom. No one would resort to such dubious behavior if there were an easier remedy.

Read the rest of her excellently presented discussion here.

A Libertarian Defends Local Bankers

An analyst of the banks and an increasingly visible commentator on the foreclosure mess, R. Christopher Whalen puts in a good word for local bankers on his blog at Reuters.com:

The bad guys in the housing bust are not the banks who must foreclose on homes, but the politicians in both political parties who used reckless housing policies to further their personal interests. This is a bipartisan national scandal. Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Phil Graham, Alan Greenspan and their contemporaries are the authors of our collective misery, not the local banker who must clean up the mess created by government intervention in the housing market.

Read the rest here.

Obama Doesn't Know His (Foreclosure) Constituency

John Judis for The New Republic almost says he knew FDR and that FDR was a friend of his, but he does say that Obama is no FDR:

The left will support Obama and Democrats. It’s the working-class voters who reluctantly backed Obama in 2008, but have been turned off by the impression that the administration cares more about the banks than about them. ... [FDR] knew who his constituency was: His was the party of the common man. The Obama administration, meanwhile, worries about the people who listen to "Charlie Rose." And they and the Democrats are going to pay a steep price for their inattention to common concerns this November.


Read the full commentary here.

Foreclosure Crisis Not Even Half Over

Based on Richard Suttmeier's take on the data here:

About 2.5 million homes have been lost to foreclosure since “The Great Credit Crunch” began in March 2007, and another 3.3 million homes could be lost to foreclosure or distressed sale before “The Great Credit Crunch” comes to an end.

Decades of Economic Shrinkage Ahead

"Just as the housing sector and the related debt was the driver of the US economy over the past several decades, I believe that the deflation of the housing market could spell an equally drastic period of shrinkage in economic activity in the US and around the world."

-- Chris Whalen, here.

David Stockman Hates America

David Stockman's latest screed against PIMCO reveals what a creature of his age he has become:

"Housing is a commodity like furniture and automobiles, and inducing citizens to buy more of it is no business of the state."

In truth everything is a commodity to people like David Stockman, and that he'd much prefer a world which puts more people into that category, as the tenants of landlords, says it all.

Without realizing it, he puts his finger on the problem with what has happened in America in our lifetimes. Everything got commodified, not just our jobs, and now our mortgages, but our very selves. It happens to people who forget where they came from, who they are, and God. That we let the vampires get a hold of the American dream and make a bundle off it is only the most acute and visible example of it. It is almost quaint how Stockman likens what's happened to indentured servitude, as if his remedy doesn't resemble the same.

With mortgage securitization, the American dream got carved up, packaged and sold off to the highest bidder like so many sausages at the meat counter. But the intangible assets of four walls and a piece of ground mean nothing to David Stockman. Privacy, peace and quiet. Some flowers for the table and tomatoes for the pasta, the companionship of pets and a place to bury them when they're gone. The sound of the wind blowing through the trees. The glory of a red maple leaf against a blue sky. The goldfinch, the bluejay, the robin, and crows as big as coons. The snowman standing where bright green grass once called you to mow it. Where families gather to give thanks once a year for our many blessings, in spite of it all.

If that makes me a slave, I'll own it. Someone's banking on it, and not just Bill Gross.

The Mother of All Bailouts

Bloomberg.com had an important article in June about the Government Sponsored Enterprises in which it is estimated that they may reasonably require taxpayer bailouts of $1 trillion in coming years:

Fannie, based in Washington, and Freddie in McLean, Virginia, own or guarantee 53 percent of the nation’s $10.7 trillion in residential mortgages, according to a June 10 Federal Reserve report. Millions of bad loans issued during the housing bubble remain on their books, and delinquencies continue to rise. How deep in the hole Fannie and Freddie go depends on unemployment, interest rates and other drivers of home prices, according to the companies and economists who study them.

Unlimited bailout authority for these failed government programs was granted in December 2009. That's what prepared the way for the idea behind the rumors now that underwater mortgage balances may be reduced by the Obama administration.

Read all about it, here.

As A Dog Returneth To His Vomit

Kimberley A. Strassel updated the Alexi Giannoulias affair in mid-July for The Wall Street Journal, highlighting the source of the Senate hopeful's personal fortunes, which ended up a bank failure in April:

Then in April federal regulators seized Broadway Bank. Records showed the bank's lending profile changed sharply after Mr. Giannoulias came on full-time in 2002. His lending department doubled down on the risky real estate loans that helped shred the housing market; Broadway piled up losses. Mr. Giannoulias prospered.

No doubt Mr. Obama can't wait to arrive on Aug. 5 to raise money for one of those, ahem, "fat cat bankers." And he'll be landing in Chicago just as the Blagojevich trial is raising uncomfortable questions about Mr. Obama's Chicago connections and his role pushing his friend Valerie Jarrett for the Senate seat. The state Democratic establishment is dutifully holding "Vote Alexi" signs, but many are bitter that the White House landed them with this guy. It won't be a pleasant visit.

Read the complete story, here.

Obamas Enrich Themselves At Your Expense, Again and Again

Andrea Tantaros for The New York Daily News has all the gory details of the latest episode, this time in Spain:

While many of us are struggling, the First Lady is spending the next few days in a five-star hotel on the chic Costa del Sol in southern Spain with 40 of her "closest friends." According to CNN, the group is expected to occupy 60 to 70 rooms, more than a third of the lodgings at the 160-room resort. Not exactly what one would call cutting back in troubled times.

Reports are calling the lodgings of  Obama's Spanish fiesta, the Hotel Villa Padierna in Marbella, "luxurious," "posh" and "a millionaires' playground." Estimated room rate per night? Up to a staggering $2,500. Method of transportation? Air Force Two.

To be clear, what the Obamas do with their money is one thing; what they do with ours is another. Transporting and housing the estimated 70 Secret Service agents who will flank the material girl will cost the taxpayers a pretty penny.

Go here for the complete story.

WHERE BANKS' BAD PAPER GOES TO DIE

The taxpayer-backstopped Fanny and Freddie, of course:

The Obama administration is continuing one of the more horrific policies of the Bush administration: Using the GSEs as a back door bailout for the rest of the banking sector: These banks are selling their garbage to the GSEs — and according to some anecdotal evidence, are getting pretty close to full boat (100 cents on the dollar) for these bad loans.

Hence, Fannie and Freddie have become a dumping ground for all manner of bad bank loans.

The GSEs have had their own problems over the years — accounting fraud, recklessly chasing market share, lowering loan quality, etc. — but they have now become . . . the last stop for every crappy mortgage ever written.

Ritholtz has more here, on the story from Bloomberg.