Housing starts are not in a new golden age but are still 2018-ish

 These are not pictures of an economic boom.

The economic boom in housing of the 1990s started from the vicinity of the current levels. 

 

 

 

If there's a better metaphor for Trump's Golden Age I don't know it: Bonds have been at their very worst in the whole history of the country ever since Donald J. Trump entered politics

 Sep 2016-Sep 2026: -2.23% per annum nominal.

Compare VUSTX discussed in a previous post: 10-year total return per annum through 9/30/26 at -2.20%.

It's eerie.

Anyway yields at 5+% now portend better times ahead for good old American bonds, eventually.

 

Golden Age NOT: Just 49.14% had a full time job in August 2026, the second lowest figure for an August in 11 years

Both Biden and Trump have had this figure above 50%, but even that has been pathetically weak.

 

Compared to the past, 50% should be the floor, not the ceiling.

 

I remain disgusted with the complacency of both political parties, as demonstrated by the complete absence of urgency about the one thing which is the very ticket to the middle class. 

 

August 2016: 49.59%

August 2017: 49.87%

August 2018: 50.36%

August 2019: 50.94%

August 2020: 47.44%

August 2021: 49.18%

August 2022: 50.58%

August 2023: 50.68%

August 2024: 49.98%

August 2025: 49.44%

August 2026: 49.14%

 

 

Well, that's not supposed to be happening in the new Golden Age

Private payrolls rose by 38,000 in August, less than expected, ADP reports 

 ... Manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs, professional and business services was off 16,000 and both the natural resources and mining as well as trade, transportation and utilities reported declines of 5,000. ...

The first half of 2026 is falling far short of a new golden age for workers, and isn't even as good as 2019

The worst indicator is full time employment, which is running more than 2 points behind Trump's best showing in the second half of 2019. Just 48.65% had a full time job in 1H2026, and the high pre-Great Recession levels look more unachievable than ever. It is summer time and this is when we should be feeling the purported boom most acutely and we are not.

On a similar semiannual average basis, nearly 400k more workers than at the lows in 2019 want to work but are so discouraged they have dropped out. The spread between June 2026 and October 2019 is nearly 600k.

The overall number of unemployed in the first half of 2026 is 1.633 million higher than it was in the second half of 2019, 7.413 million vs. 5.780 million. The level averaged 7.6 million when Trump was elected in 2016.

The broadest measure of unemployment, the U6RATE, is 8%. In the second half of 2019 it was 6.9%, the lowest on record to the time, but Biden beat that in 2022/2023. Are we really not ever going to break Biden's two-time record low of 6.7%?

Was that the golden age?

The thing I worry about most is initial and continuing claims for unemployment. They are both on a run at historic lows.

How much longer can they keep it going like this?

The Golden Age of eating but not working: A record 105.808 million not-in-labor-force in Donald Trump's America in June 2026, Dumb Ass Unemployment Rate still higher than at any point in his first term when Limbaugh stopped talking about it

 The Donald Trump-Rush Limbaugh Dumb Ass Unemployment Rate in June 2026 is 38.14%.

 

Just 48.97% had a full time job in June 2026

I thought this was the Golden Age?

 

Core pce inflation in May 2026 came in at 3.41% year over year

 What in the Sam Hell is golden about this age?

Absolutely nothing. 

There's nothing Greenspan about it either. 

Alan Greenspan's core pce inflation averaged 2.46% year over year 1987-2006.

 

 

 

 

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 44.8 has never been lower

... Gallup’s findings were echoed by University of Michigan data released Friday that showed consumer sentiment falling to its lowest point since the survey began in 1952. ...

 

-- WaPo 

 

Consumer sentiment hits fresh record low in May as Iran war fuels inflation worries:

 

The index of consumer sentiment fell to 44.8 from a preliminary reading of 48.2. It’s also well below the 49.8 level seen at the end of April. ...                                      

 

But it's the Golden Age! 

Trump steaks, Trump wine, Trump gold visa

 Trump’s ‘bargain’ $1m Gold Card backfires with just 338 applications 

... The Trump Gold Card, which offers purchasers an expedited route to American residency, was unveiled with great fanfare in February 2025. ... 

Real GDP for 4Q2025 was revised lower to 0.5% from 0.7% last month in today's final estimate, and CNBC buried the story of a stalling economy

 The 0.5% estimate is the annual rate of real GDP growth in 4Q, and the figure doesn't sound like much of a revision until you remember that the estimated annual rate in 3Q was 4.4%.

That's one hell of a drop, whether it's to 0.7% or to 0.5%.

In other words, the economy nearly stalled in 4Q. 

Meanwhile real GDP for full year 2025 increased at a measly 2.1% rate. 

CNBC buried the bad news in a different story, seven paragraphs down:

Inflation held sticky at 3% as U.S. headed into war with Iran, key Fed gauge shows

... Separately, the Commerce Department reported that economic growth was even slower than previously reported for the fourth quarter of 2025. 

Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced, rose just 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down from the prior reading of 0.7% and the initial estimate of 1.4%. The full-year growth rate held at 2.1%.

The department said the downward revision came primarily to lower investment than previously indicated. ...

Gee, I thought Trump said $18 trillion in investment was flowing into the economy?

Golden Age, my foot. 

Meanwhile the initial estimate was cut in half by the second estimate, and the final estimate cut that by nearly 29% more. They were off by only 64% in the end. 

Remember, this is all pre-Iran-War-induced oil crisis, too.

It's going to be ugly. 

 

 

48.66% worked full time in March 2026

 When does the Golden Age start?

 

 

Some Golden Age: The 10-year trend for percent change for ADP private payrolls is down

 

100% ground beef averaged a record $6.089 in year one of Trump 2.0, and hit a record high $6.687 in Dec 2025 to celebrate the New Golden Age for them, not for you

 Like many other such graphs, the graph for 100% Ground Beef won't show the 2025 average because the government shutdown meant no figure for October in the data.

The average $6.089 in 2025 is for eleven months without October, with October obviously a high figure, too, which means the annual average is no doubt higher than $6.089.

 

 

Hey Look! Labor's Share of Business Income has never been LOWER than under our lord and saviour, king and high muckety muck, Uniparty Poopulist President Donald J. Trump

 The Golden Age . . . for business, not for you.

 3Q2025, updated Jan 8, 2026:

Not the Golden Age AT ALL: The percentage of Americans working full time in November 2025 collapsed to 48.82%

 Eight Novembers under Bush 43 saw 51.6% working full-time on average, and under Bill Clinton 52.0% which today would mean 8.7 million more working full time than do.

 

Trump's Golden Age of ADP Payroll losses: Biden had only one month of losses, but Trump already has four! MAGA!

 

What he said

 

The Golden Age isn't AAA

 

The Golden Age of authoritarianism: Confrontation, corruption, contraction, con-jobs, and contempt

 

Trump again calls for Fed to cut rates, says Powell’s ‘termination cannot come fast enough’

 

Trump’s tariffs are ‘inviting corruption,’ Democrats tell Bessent, Lutnick

 

China targets U.S. services and other areas as it decries ‘meaningless’ tariff hikes on goods 

 

Trade war fallout: Cancellations of Chinese freight ships begin as bookings plummet

European Central Bank cuts interest rates, warns of ‘deteriorated’ growth outlook on trade tensions

 

Italy’s ‘Trump whisperer’ Giorgia Meloni to meet U.S. president amid trade standoff with Europe

 

CBP says latest tariffs have generated $500 million, well below Trump’s estimate

 

Judge finds cause to hold Trump administration in criminal contempt in deportation flights case